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"The worst that could happen is a "void" market, if nobody can form a government."
Petition to get Betfair to open a "Will a government be formed after the General Election" market. |
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They can add a "When will Betfair settle the market" market as well
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Liz wouldnt be paying a visit unless job was assured
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gets better...the DUP are in no rush to finalize any agreement."it may be next week or it maybe in six months time " says the spokesman........................over to you , betfair .
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"The agreement is "95% done" and the Treasury is now examining the implications of more upfront spending for Northern Ireland."
"A Conservative-DUP confidence and supply deal is expected to be finalised and announced on either Tuesday or Thursday next week, Sky News understands." Source: Sky News. |
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It looks to me as the DUP are taking it in turns to pump Theresa up the hopper.
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Just contacted Betfair....not really any wiser?
Hi there, Until the Queen assent’s the formulation of the government, we will not be settling any of these markets. Currently Theresa May has announced her cabinet, but that isn’t the definition of a formation of the government. Any acting PM can change the cabinet if they were to be appointed. Theresa May will meet the Queen on an unknown date to confirm her plans as the PM. The reason for this delay is that the Conservatives & DUP are negotiating a deal that could take some time. Again from our perspective, we cannot settle any of the above markets until the Queen has consented to Theresa May’s plans. |
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Strictly speaking, a number of outcomes are still possible therefore Betfair have no choice but to keep the market open.
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I understand there are still some outcomes, but at what point are there no longer any!
Once the DUP deal is announced once they've voted the Queens speech through......or according to Betfair, when Teresa pops round to see the Queen...maybe after the DUP deal? A wee bit unclear for 2 markets with £13m matched. |
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I think theyre all hoping to see six figures in the back market at 1.10 so they can make a few shillings before getting Liz to do her bit. Maybe Phil's involved in this betting scam too...
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the moneyshot....bbc website , one of the headline articles plus more detailed on bbc 24 hour news
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A deal is not expected to be confirmed before next week, although Mr Dodds said that he was not going to "get into timetables and deadlines".
"They can be somewhat counter-productive," he added. Is all I could find on the BBC News website. Maybe I need to go to Specsavers but no sign of; "it may be next week or it maybe in six months time " quote, which you'd think, given the context of the situation, would feature quite prominently. |
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"Theresa May will meet the Queen on an unknown date to confirm her plans as the PM" This is false.
Theresa May is Prime Minister until such times as she resigns or is voted out by losing a vote of confidence by a two thirds majority, even if the Queens Speech ( which Theresa May writes and is only a brief indication of what the government intends to do) is voted down she remains Prime Minister until the aforementioned. It's ludicrous that so much money is dependent on people who are incompetent. |
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that quote was made by the bbc correspondent when broadcasting that news , money , it just leaves everything in the air.
it is already past the time when betfair should state to everyone what they consider the end position so we all know what situation ends this |
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and as for voting on the queen's speech on government proposed plans the DUP don't have to vote with the government , only abstein , as SF won't even turn up. the vote would then be 318 to 312
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Betfair do not know what to do atm. They want confirmation of May's position but are unsure how to determine this.
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I have had a long conversation with betfair this morning, this is their latest response.
"We understand your point, however the decision to hold off the settlements has been done by the trading and the exchange department. As they have informed us, until the Queen assent’s the formulation of the government, we will not be settling the markets. Currently Theresa May has announced her cabinet, but that isn’t the definition of a formation of the government. Any acting PM can change the cabinet if they were to be appointed. Theresa May will meet the Queen on an unknown date to confirm her plans as the PM. The reason for this delay is that the Conservatives & DUP are negotiating a deal that could take some time. Again from our perspective, we cannot settle any of the above markets until the Queen has consented to Theresa May’s plans." "until the Queen has consented to Theresa May’s plans." This is ridiculous, the Queen is not in charge and only invites the winner of the election to form a government, which she did last week. |
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Oh for goodness sake, that was a long post too! In summary, I talked myself round to Betfair being correct, after intitally saying I thought there was a constituted Tory minority government. The point is that the DUP could in theory still back Labour until an agreement is formalised. That this is highly unlikely is a betting judgement, not something that would allow them to settle the two markets.
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so if no agreement is formalized and the DUP either vote with the conservatives or abstain as they would never side with corbyn
[eitherway any vote is carried as SF don't turn up] then betfair say the market stays open for up to five years ? the queen just reads the text given to her as she has already given theresa may permission to form her government and then shoots off to ascot. all nonsensical. BETFAIR NEED TO ISSUE A NOTICE |
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matty1 • June 16, 2017 9:15 AM BST
Theresa May is Prime Minister until such times as she resigns or is voted out by losing a vote of confidence by a two thirds majority It only requires a simple majority to lose a vote of no confidence. Has a government ever lost a queen's speech vote? If May steams ahead without assurances from the DUP, it would be unprecedented. It would be like Gordon Brown in 2010 just having a go rather than ceding to Cameron who was close to an agreement with Clegg. |
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Market has suddenly turned.
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@adge if the old lady sings, its over and a government is formed as her maj would have been advised that the Tories have sufficient support for the Queen's speech program. God knows what the constitutional position is if that vote isn't actually won.
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for me , dave , the market price is due entirely to betfair being so vague and not publishing any timetable of settlement
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Until it's 100% clear who the next pm is then obviously the market has to be kept in play.
If TM wakes up tomorrow and says i've had enough of the criticism etc i'm resigning as leaderp then she won't be the next pm. There could be more twists in this saga to come. |
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Trying to trade this now, although always a risk laying off at a low price that is far more of a back than a lay if not trying to trade.
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The total ambiguity surrounding this market concerned me, suddenly someone was throwing big chunks at T. May, I had near on 11k locked in and took the chance to get out. Worst case scenario now I get at least my stake back, really did not want it hanging over me throughout the weekend and can use the dough to better effect.
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Meadow I agree and that is my point;she may come to the conclusion she's out of her depth and therefore go...i'm even wondering if we might end up with a con/lib coalition !
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......so it's as clear as mud still.
I cant see it not being settled if the vote for the Queens speech is won....that's 27th June by the way I believe, so up to 11 days. Hopefully sense will prevail if the DUP deal is confirmed, as the gov't is then confirmed as a Cons one with confidence & supply in place. What it's got to do with going to see the Queen (re Betfair) is anyone's guess, and on their own rules it says on "formation of a first ministry", which if you google shows nothing, which suggests it's a made up phrase! I think we're going round in circles here..... |
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"so if no agreement is formalized and the DUP either vote with the conservatives or abstain as they would never side with corbyn
[eitherway any vote is carried as SF don't turn up] then betfair say the market stays open for up to five years ? the queen just reads the text given to her as she has already given theresa may permission to form her government and then shoots off to ascot. all nonsensical. BETFAIR NEED TO ISSUE A NOTICE" This is not true. There is a speech and there is a vote on the speech. If it gets passed then May is PM and there is a Conservative minority government (with unofficial backing from the DUP). Someone on the radio said that the DUP have a personal interest in the Conservatives winning this vote because if not then there is a good chance that Labour will get the chance to form a government and there is a snowball's chance in hell of the DUP letting that happen since Labour and Corbyn are best pals with their enemy. |
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so why won't betfair say precisely that , jes , then we would all know.
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So like I said......"I cant see it not being settled if the vote for the Queens speech is won....that's 27th June by the way I believe, so up to 11 days".
Like you say Adge, why can't Betfair confirm that, and at least it would be clear. |
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I thought the Queen's Speech was next Wednesday ie the 21st
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The speech is then and then they have 6 days of discussions and arguing about it and then vote on it.
"so why won't betfair say precisely that , jes , then we would all know." Because there are various things that could happen for it to settle. The Conservatives could win that vote and then it settles with them as winner. Or May could resign and then she's a loser or she could die or etc etc. |
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it is , posy , but the commons debate and vote on it's contents is june 27th
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Thanks for the clarification.
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So......They could say whoever is PM after the Queen's speech vote settles the market?
I'm on the type of Gov't market, and same applies. If the vote goes through without a DUP MP in the cabinet, it's a Con minority. A bit of good customer service from Betfair to clarify it, is all we want I think. |