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EU Referendum
EU Referendum
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There was a big move for an hour or two this morning and this was after it went in a bit to 1.44 ish no real explanation but seemed to be a lot of money down. I was expecting a poll announcement that hasn't come, so I can't work out what it was all about.
Maybe the unveiling of Gordon Brown lol |
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It's not Gordon Brown as such; it is the realisation that Cameron is failing, so they are letting Labour people become the face of the campaign. It might sway Labour voters, because that is where the outcome of the vote lies.
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Labour are just digging themselves a bigger hole.
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Well they have tried to avoid digging that hole for the whole campaign so far by taking a back seat, but it is desperation stakes now.
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Too late, only thing that will save them now is a Brexit.
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The spike was caused by fears/histeria after the shootings in USA, imo. Maybe also, the apparent discord among supposed football fans in Europe. it has all led to a general feeling of angst, i think! I honestly think most people are not that bothered about what the politicians say!
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No you are way off. It was specific to a couple of hour period this morning. All that happened yesterday.
There is an ICM poll out for the Guardian today I think, maybe its that. |
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1.46 now.
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You are wrong Des simples. There are rumors of an ICM poll and the pound has been reacting. I sat and watched that market and a lot of money came down pushing the price out very quickly to 1.55 from 1.44 I am talking within minutes.
Thats not a delayed reaction to yesterdays news. |
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OK Loddy, I'm not going to argue with you. I know -to the second-, when my bets were taken. I have over 13k on this market now, so you can rest assured I am watching it very closely indeed! On the 24th, if I have lost the guts of that money, then feel free to come on and tell me I got it wrong! If I am almost £6k better off, I might come on here, and confirm that I got it right! Although I am more likely to be on another holiday, enjoying the money! I'm not interested in polls or rumours of polls. I have my own way of reading the market, and it is working very well!
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Don't care what you have or what you don't have. Just telling how I saw it and there was a reaction to something and the market moved out 10 tics in about 2 minutes and has spent the rest of the day closing it back.
You don't get reaction like that to yesterday afternoons news, it was someone acting on information (possibly false) or someone with a load of cash had just sat down and watched last weeks question time on the iplayer. There are lots of twitter rumours today the most recent one is that the new ICM poll has remain with a 5 point lead and the pound seems to have reacted. |
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OK Loddy,
 All the best! |
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ICM poll out at 5pm apparently. There is an old poll being retweeted from may don't fall for it.
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1.61 now...heading north too
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1.63 as I posted last
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This dude Des Pond is a proper mug laying off now. Quarter inch thick pottery mug that would keep your tea warm for a whole morning.
If I was the EU , the five presidents would be offering the UK an opt out on home affairs and justice regulations ( like the one Denmark has ) along with an extra £2bn off that net contribution to swing things back towards them. But this is the EU, an organisation that is not nimble enough to do this, and it's main job is to support farm owners anyway, they could not be more remote from the job in hand. So the EU loving classes cannot reverse the momentum of the last two weeks. Unless an outside force comes in, once something is moving, according to the laws of motion discovered by Isaac Newton who was from Great Britain coincidentally, they keep on moving. |
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I think Des is backing remain and has been for ages, only laying when it got down to 1.2ish I think
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Des Pond - you must be selling your wife to get on at these prices?
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£25k available at 1.66 for you
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Great to see the polls moving our way but I do think remain is value now. Horrible feeling we may have peaked a bit too soon and woken a few remainers up. Will be gutted if so and I don't even have any money on it.
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A poll being this close is good for Leave after some massive polls in their favour. We don't want to become complacent!
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Anybody know why the Remain price is continuing to shorten? Currently 1.53/2.88
Surely it is not just due to the threatening budget cuts and the Geldof boat pranks? The poll last night was just in favour of Remain, but the move today has been from 1.7 last night. Confused. Maybe the Remain bettors are thinking they have landed a blow? I think this is approaching a nice price for Leave for a trade. |
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Michael Gove was less than convincing with the audience Q&A tonight.
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gove was disappointing........ farage would have done a lot better
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I thought Gove was very good, remaining very calm in the face of some shuoutey thick people in the audience (esp that studenty type woman), thick as pigsh1t she was, had absolutely no valid arguments.
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Well, it's been quite a week! Those of you who said that there would be bigger movements in the last week before the vote. You were RIGHT. There were some fairly dramatic spikes that I was not anticipating! I haven't had betfair access since Monday, so I haven't really been able to take advantage (apart from having a few bob waiting at 1.7)but the price seems to have settled back down a bit. ( despite horses called Churchill and Sir Isaac Newton winning at Ascot!
) I wonder if there will be more of the same in the run up to Thursday! Maybe, but I think that the murder of the young M.P. may have changed the mood! It seems to have dampened the momentum of the Out campaign. |
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farage would have done a lot better
Mugs like you have more faith in farage than a saint has in Jesus Christ. The only thing farage does is alienate people who aren't among his cadre of fervent supporters. Thats why the leave campaign have tried as hard as possible to keep him in the background of this campaign. |
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Quite noticeable swings in prices today, currently Leave bobbing between 4 and 4.4
Are there any polls due out tonight? |
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Very big referendum polling night ahead with ORB phone, YouGov online and the National Centre's figures. From Mike Smithsons Twitter.
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Just got in from a round of golf (knackered), haven't laid anything off yet! Was going to leave some lays at 1.14 and below, but didn't bother. How low did it get, about 1.12 or so? Anyway, I think I might just leave it now. Unless it gets to sub 1.08 or so in the next couple of hours before I fall asleep!
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sub 1.08 by 22:05
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Maybe, I might shove a few grand at 1.06, or so, before I conk out!
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I agree with john and pm there is some thing not right.and I will hold my bet till it's down to it's last fiver
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If you're so confident Des Pond put it on at 1.14
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Nah, Pauilow, I've had loads at anything from 1.38 to 1.7, most at 1.48 plus. I even got some 1.4, yesterday and some 1.52 a few days ago. there's no way I'm going in again at 1.14.
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Dont blame you, I got a nice chunk at 1.7 odd last week as well
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Yep, that was a gift. Pity I was abroad, or else I could really have made hay! Glad I left some up though.
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I was away too, but luckily in London and smartphones are a godsend
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I don' trust myself betting with smartphones, too hamfisted!
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