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EU Referendum
EU Referendum
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put up the REMAIN vote to be 40% or under @say 40/1 and i will take a bit of that
I have no interest in betting on that market, there is no liquidity in it, and very little money. I'll ask again, brexit fans are being offered better than 2/1 for what they think is an evens shot (or odds on, if you believe what they are saying) Why are they not taking it?. Like I said before,if I was being offered those kind of odds for something I thought was at most an evens shot, I would be snapping their hands off. |
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The amount of forum posts in favour of Brexit is disproportionately high and does not reflect the weight of money being bet on the market. This is because the forum is infested with fantasists who want to profer their opinions, but have no intention of betting with real money. They are welcome to their opinions, the only thing that matters to me is the result of the referendum and how much money I will make from it, and this depends on the Out fans putting their money where their mouth is and driving the remain price up. I hope it goes much higher, but I am not holding my breath.
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The amount of forum posts in favour of Brexit is disproportionately high
an assumption This is because the forum is infested with fantasists who want to profer their opinions, but have no intention of betting with real money. an assumption you appear to be also making a huge EV mistake by ignoring facts and assuming you cannot lose the last 5 polls all have brexit ahead - FACT even the ones that show 50/50 show the remain vote declining - FACT the fight is unfair with regard to the £9 million letter sent to everyone and the use of public institutions to promote the remain case yet still they have no lead - FACT the last newspaper polls were as follows the MIRROR - 70% leave the TELEGRAPH - 72% leave the EXPRESS - 72% leave the METRO - 68% leave the GUARDIAN - 46% leave ALL FACTS the remain polls in the mirror and guardian should be significantly different given they are left leaning papers that are openly campaigning for remain. once again the assumption that labour voters will vote remain is totally false and baseless, these people have been the worse affected by mass uncontrolled immigration and are highly likely to vote accordingly the pollsters say they got the 2015 GE wrong because they cannot get hold of older and tory voters - they have not resolved this issue, they cant. if they are right as to why they got it so wrong, and they all say the same thing then they are missing a large section of the electorate that will certainly vote out if your assumptiom that remain cant lose is based on the notion that people will back away from uncertainty and change at the last moment as in quebec and scotland then you are simply underestimating the strength of feeling towards the EUSSR, people have had decades of this corruption interference and mass immigration, it is indelibly printed within the psyche of the majority and cannot be changed by project fear |
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the pollsters say they got the 2015 GE wrong because they cannot get hold of older and tory voters - they have not resolved this issue, they cant. if they are right as to why they got it so wrong, and they all say the same thing then they are missing a large section of the electorate that will certainly vote out
I didn't get it wrong, I made a lot of money on the GE, despite voting labour as I have always done. I bet on what I believe will happen, not on what I hope will happen. As soon as I saw a flood victim in Somerset being asked if she was glad that ed Milliband was there to see what was happening, and if she wanted to talk to him. her reply was " no, because he is an idiot, quite frankly". At that point the tories were odds AGAINST to get more seats, I got as much on as I could afford because I KNEW at that moment that people were not going to vote for labour with Milliband as leader. I made a LOT of money that day, even though i wanted labour to win. I am only here to bet and make money, an Out vote would not bother me all that much, if I did not stand to make a good few grand from the remain side winning. I won't make anywhere near as much from the Referendum, as from the GE, but it will still pay for a couple of nice holidays. |
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It's a simple equation which none of us know the answer to. Few will vote with a clear sense of the why's and the wherefore's. The question which will decide the issue is whether the antipathy many feel towards the EU will be trumped by stepping in to what many feel is the unknown.
There's a reason why the took us in before allowing the people to have their say. Much as I agree with Burky's points about why I just think that there will be a late surge towards remain which will see them comfortably home. It isn't what I want. It's what I believe. |
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So, you are betting with your head, not your heart. This is always a good strategy.
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So, you are betting with your head, not your heart. This is always a good strategy.
says the guy that based his entire position on what some woman in somerset said.LOL tories won coz they ruthlessly targeted the lin seats in the south west combined with the fear of scotland running england. u got lucky ur about to be unlucky I just think that there will be a late surge towards remain which will see them comfortably home. that is the obvious worry but keep the faith simmie keep the faith |
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* targeted the lib dem
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says the guy that based his entire position on what some woman in somerset said.LOL
Hardly! it was based on a long-held, strong opinion about Milliband's ability as leader u got lucky Yes, you are right. waking up to find that you are 27k better of is lucky, although not as lucky as a friend of mine who won a 6-figure sum, because he had the guts to back a tory majority at 27/1. I take your point, "strategy" was the wrong word to use. It was not a strategy, it was a decision, made according to a very strong gut feeling informed by serious doubts that I had about milliband's leadership credentials. I backed my hunch (for want of a better word)with real money and it paid off. The point is that to win money you have to have the courage of your own convictions, bet accordingly and don't waver or be put off by what other people say. Anyway, all the best to you, whatever you bet on. I am not interested in bickering with anyone, or throwing insults around, my purpose on this site is to win money. |
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That's all any of us can do Des. I remember a programme prior to the Tory leadership election a good few years ago. Cameron was a relative outsider who I knew very little about. They had a psephologist on doing an analysis of how people perceived the various candidates. Cameron was well clear of the others when they all spoke and I remember thinking that given their previous drubbings this was the perfect time for the Tories to throw their beliefs overboard and vote for s slick PR type.
Again it wasn't in your league but I made a very nice profit out of that gut feeling. Which in one sense was nice but in another not so as I'd have personally preferred David Davis to have led the party. |
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it was a decision, made according to a very strong gut feeling informed by serious doubts that I had about milliband's leadership credentials. I backed my hunch (for want of a better word)with real money and it paid off. The point is that to win money you have to have the courage of your own convictions, bet accordingly and don't waver or be put off by what other people say.
i agree with all of that and i have done so |
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Eeter, I think that most of my biggest wins have been on events that I have had a very strong gut feeling about. Quite often the gut feeling goes against the outcome that I wanted to see. The fact that I have been a Labour voter all my adult life meant that i was dismayed at the prospect of at least another 5 years of tory govt, and maybe that made it easier to make such a large bet on the Election. people like Burt06 have every right to scoff, but when I watched that News item about the floods, and saw Milliband floundering desperately trying, and failing to get someone to take him on and give him at least a photo opportunity, I knew with absolute certainty that the average voter would not take milliband seriously, and would not trust him to run the country. like i said, labour were favourites to get most seats at that time, but whether it was gut feeling, instinct, a "eureka moment", call it what you will, I had absolute conviction that my initial doubts about milliband's credentials were 100% right and there was no way that labour were winning that election. when my instincts are that strong, I tend to think that I would be missing an opportunity if I didn't back them. I am not saying that my instincts are infallible, but they have served me well, so far.
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@ Burt
glad to hear it. Good luck to you  |
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and good luck to you
but i think u have done ur doe |
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If I've done my own dough I'll be delighted. A few hundred quid will be scant consolation if I'm right.
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and good luck to you
but i think u have done ur doe  No doubt you will come on here and give me no end of grief on the 24th, if I have  |
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dont really matter to u simmie as u are the forum master at doing ur doe
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REJOICE!!!! I didn't get a coffee chucked in my mush this week. I would guess the biggest topic today was the pm's WW3 claim last week, I hope he mentions it again as people were laughing their heads off today
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I'm not a big hitter Burky and I don't have a massive overall profit but I'm one of the relative few with a Betfair account in profit.
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Remain price heading south again. I sometimes wonder if Boris really wants a Brexit
 . OUT backers can get 3.35 now. Incredible price, what are you waiting for? |
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Of course he doesn't but he does want to be the next leader of his party and he's ticking some boxes off.
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The EU/Hitler comparison was plainly a considered one. Looks like Boris has cast an eye over the water and noticed the success of Chris Rock politics - "That's right, I said it!" Now he's trying to play Billy Idol to Donald Trump's Elvis. You have to wonder if Blond Suicide is getting partial advice from his employer, the Daily Telegraph. The message will go down well with their readers, maybe even the broader spectrum of the Tory Party, but are they best placed to advise Boris how this is going play with the voters Brexit need to secure on June 23rd.?
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3591180/Boris-Johnson-compares-EU-HITLER-warns-ambitions-European-superstate-end-tragically.html
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Have a good drink of water and lie down for a bit Broken. There's weeks to go yet and you're going to burn yourself out at this rate.
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Eeternaloptimist • May 15, 2016 4:20 PM BST
Of course he doesn't but he does want to be the next leader of his party and he's ticking some boxes off. I think you are right, Eeter. What I don't get is how the average, potentially brexit-inclined voter can be expected to get behind a campaign spearheaded by someone who doesn't appear to believe in the cause that he is supposed to be advocating. |
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Because one thing I think Boris gets is that the vast majority of voters don't understand much regarding the nuances of the different positions relating to the debate. They will vote according to either their gut or a vague view related to something they think is important like the economy or immigration.
My position hasn't wavered. I think about a third of people are passionately against the EU. This is perhaps even a bigger percentage than those who are passionately pro the EU. Unless there is a catastrophically low turn out it won't be these people deciding the issue and my own gut instinct is that if you aren't already passionately anti EU there is every chance you could be won over to the other side. I see little opportunity for many people switching back the other way. I hope I'm wrong but I've gradually built up a healthy looking profit if the vote is to remain. Which will slightly soften any blow to come. |
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I don't see how we could have a Prime Minister who has advocated leaving the EU if we are still in.
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Quite easy Shab. Cameron will be gone in a couple of years. During that time there will be plenty of recriminations. The grass roots of the party are broadly in favour of Brexit. It would be hard for a remainer to draw the party together. It would be much easier for someone on the other side of the debate because there would be less poison directed towards them.
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And what about his recent assertion that coming ou of EU won't solve all of our problems Is this him just covering his tracks, So he can later say that Brexit wasn't so important after all? as he goes on his merry way in pursuit of Leadership.
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It was an assertion from 2013 and is as true today as it was then. I'd imagine he won't say it wasn't important. I suspect he will throw in a few quotations from his Classics studies and bow down to the wisdom of the people. He does false modesty rather well when he wants to.
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And he also has a Blair like ability allowing him to walk away not greatly harmed from any scrapes he finds himself in. Not to be underestimated as a political quality.
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I wonder if brexit voters realise they are being led up the garden path? sacrificed at the altar of Bojob's political ambitions, used as a decoy for the more important matter of Boris's insane quest for power!
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Sorry, that was a bit over the top. getting a bit drunk now
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Boris Johnson is a hopeless politician. He served two terms as London Mayor by not stopping rising rising house-prices. Not that he could have.
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I don't think they care either way Des. He's attached but he's hardly any kind of messiah figure.
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I'm not even sure he's on an insane quest for power. I don't see him as a Trump like figure determined to win just because winning is all important. I think he thinks it would be jolly nice but I suspect it doesn't define him.
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Who else have they got though, Gove? nobody listens to him. Farago? hardly ever hear from him (just as well) This has been my view all along. the Out campaign are hampered by the weakness of the people that are supposed to be leading their campaign. I mean, would any of the lghtweights on the brexit side inspire you to go out and vote, if you were undecided?
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Maybe they will have to bring out their secret weapon, the mighty Kate whoee?
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They're never going to beat the remain side going down that route I agree. They should go the whole hog and make it a fight between the establishment and the people and have respected figures from industry who support Brexit in more prominent positions.
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Ah well, suppose I can forget about getting more on at 1.6, or even 1.5 specially if Boris opens his mouth again. Antway good night all, off to get properly drunk now
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