Pinza

Bucketful of DT's today
1.55 Star Of Rohm
2.30 Alpha Tauri
3.05 Aubretia
4.25  Lesleys Choice
5.05 Dewala
7.50 The Noble Ord
8.20 Dhhamaan
7.20 Honey Of A Kitten

3yo Maidens are quite poor for winners and only Lingfield races are worth a look, so I'll miss out on Star Of Rohm today (Lay?)

RESULTS
horse name    POS    sp
Star Of Rohm    3    1.00
Alpha Tauri    WON    0.50
Aubretia    WON    2.00
Lesleys Choice    NR   
Dewala    2    1.50
The Noble Ord    5    3.50
Dhhamaan    0    25.00
Honey Of A Kitten    WON    0.91

The Double Top Update
Marvelino    0
Incorporate    2
Jack Dawkins    WON
Rainford Glory    0
Aryal    WON
Bapak Bangsawan    2
Jonnie Skull    2
Misleading Promise    3
King George River WON
Hazard Warning    [b]won
Story Writer    2
Docofthebay    0
Where's Reiley    won
Rawaafed    3

Today I have run Hazard Warning through the trial data incorporating the trainer stats relating to combinations of Track-Grade-Month-Distance-Race type etc.
There are significant negatives (trainer data) in Track & Distance and Track & Grade. That may seem odd compared to the form of the horse which has had two wins over C&D.

I have a win lay bet at 2.4

The other DT runner, Story Writer is trained by william Knight.
He is on the "purple list" (50% plus success)with 4 wins from 7 runners.

UPDATE
Results input.
Clearly I have more work to do as Hazard Warning won (traded as high as 12)
Story Writer just got beat but still a loser. I'll keep the trainer in purple zone unless his next DT loses.

Double Top Update & Runners
Windforpower    WON    0.50    01/03/2013    WOLV
Chjimes    6th    5.00    02/03/2013    LINGA
Lady Guievere    3    0.80    02/03/2004    LINGA
Loyalty    2nd    3.50    02/03/2004    LINGA
Mad About Harry    3rd    1.75    04/03/2004    SOUTH
Jack Dawkins    WON    5.00    05/03/2004    SOUTH
Marvelino    today        06/03/2013    KEMPA
Incorporate    today        06/03/2013    KEMPA
Jack Dawkins    Thurs        07/03/2013    SOUTH
Rainford Glory    Thurs        07/03/2013    SOUTH
Aryal    Thurs        07/03/2013    SOUTH
Bapak Bangsawan    Thurs        07/03/2013    WOLV
Jonnie Skull    Thurs        07/03/2013    WOLV
Misleading Promise    Thurs        07/03/2013    WOLV
King George River    Thurs        07/03/2013    WOLV


Dorothy's Dancing runs again today 2.30 Lingfield
Having backed it twice recently when 2nd and as result is 7lb higher than last win
In period Feb - early April last year form reads 31211
Her overall record at Lingfield reads 771146211609122
When over 6f & 5f there in small fields of 6 or less 1121

You can't really ignore the probability that she might win today - and surely at age 5 the possibilty of breeding duties beckon.

Been busy over w/end decorating but also now going to spend more time gathering together and finalise the Flat racing stuff.
Like Shapeshifter I'm looking to increase my winning chances.
It can probably done with more work and narrowing down the bets.

Concentrating currently on various combinations of...
Track, Distance,Month, Grade, Race Type,
Plus, where applicable, Fillies - Fill v colt
Days since run

E.G
Comparing Polar Venture (W Haggas) today and previous wins
win on 12th Jan
Track; 3-29
Track & Distance; 0-4
Month; 2-11
Month & Track;  0-2
Grade;  1 win in 6
Grade & Track; 2-9
Race Type; 1 win in 4
Race Type & Track; 2-9
Race Type & Grade; 6-44
Fvc Track; 1-10
Days; 1-5


win on 21st Jan
Track;  9-21
Track & Distance; 3-6
Month; 3-9
Month & Track; 1-1
Grade; 1 in 2.5
Grade & Track; 5-10
Race Type;  1 in 3.2
Race Type & Track; 1-3
Race Type & Grade;  12-36
fvc Track; 1-6
Days; 7-16

2nd Today
Track; 2-6
Track & Distance; nil
Month; 0-2
Month & Track;  nil
Grade;  1 in 3.5
Grade & Track;  0-1
Race Type; 1 in 2.4
Race Type & Track; nil
Race Type & Grade;  1-3
fvc Track;  0-2
days; nil

Although this seems complicated and scores are based on own system data and Trainer Stats.
It is easy to see that Polar Venture had really good figures on 21st January (highlighted), yet today had four "no data" and three "zero" returns

I missed out a Double Top winner yesterday - Rightcar 5/1.
Another one that got in on overnight decs.

Todays Double Top
6.10 Windforpower.

Tomorrows Double Top (2 day decs)
Chjimes 2.15 Ling
Lady Guievere 3.25 Ling
Loyalty 4.00 Ling

It's a struggle to keep on top of everything so there's no chance when Flat season gets going proper.

Today I've just looked at 10 year trends - although very few races have more than 5 years racing.

2.00 Pathos.  Bought out of a claimer by Hills for £6k and taken to get cask back today. Linga record 7 wins- 11runs
Winners of this race 3-4 C&D winners

2.30 Flamborough Breeze. Taking a similar pattern of Highly Regal who won 3 on trot class 6 Hcps over 8f at Kempton and next race won class 5 at Southwell. Flamborough Breeze sticks to class 6 today with 12lb penalty. On AW 2004-12 there were 15 winners (12lb pen) from 27 runners. Those that ran with 3 days won 8 out of 12 ; run after 2 days like today 3-4.

3.05 El Massivo.  It's been a favourites race so far (4-4). Three winners were colt/geld who finished 2nd on last run.

3.40 Danziger.  Going for hat trick today. Very few penalty carriers win over 5f in class 5 grade with 8 or more days off track.
David Evans has had two wins with 9 day runners from a total of six runners. This one was considered but left out for betting puposes.
Another horse in race also passed the trends for consideration also - Charming

4.15 Jimmy the Snooze. Trainer does well with lightly raced 3yo's and this was Double Top winner recently. Winners LTO have won both previous years races - but neither were favourite!

5.20 Gebayl. The selection is based upon fact that all four previous races were won by the horse that had it's best placing on last run.

All selections figure in top three speed ratings with three being top rated (Pathos, El Massivo, Jimmy The Snooze)

It's a selection of doubles and trebles today to small stakes.

I see the first selection got beat whilst writing this up for posting!!

Bit of a mess up today with Daily Express not available online until 30 minutes ago.

Double Tops Today
3.50 Bapak Bangsawan
4.20 The Lock Master

2.20 I'm against the fav Kabbaas
I monitor the gossip gallops (amongst other things) and Varian (ex Mick Jarvis) data in 3yo hcps is around 1 - 3 on AW.
That might sound good but odds-on is 1-3 also.
Mostly the stable winners come from those that didn't WLTO.
Kabaas won maiden latest and after withdrawals the field is left with four WLTO runners.
The 4 year stats for race say two WLTO AND C&D winners which may
indicate Makinsons Lane?
My lay bet was at 1.8 prior to latest withdrawal, which now leaves me with 1.65. It's a small field but reasonably happy to retain the bet at that price.

Will look at Double Top chances in meantime.

Update
Looking at the Double Top runners
3.50 David Barron has the edge with Long Break maiden runners at this time of year. (Antonio Gramsci)
Bapak Bangsawan has the double "spots" from newspapers and the combination has a very good strike rate in 3yo+ Mdns - however mostly the winners have the addition of the Mirror "SF" and Antonio Gramsci has that today.
I therefore prefer Barron (Course and also sprint specialist) but the odds on price is a put off.

4.20 Lock Master runs in D hcp and I posted the profit other day in this grade. The last time two DT's won on trot in this grade was last August. The trainer/jockey combination have a 71% strike rate at the track though.

Double Top
9.00 Byroness
Looked at this and the track and race times read 2-2
However apprentice claimers on DT fillies reads 6 -48
and poor strike rate in 3yo hcps.
In fairness the only 4 fillies ridden by claimers produced 2 2nds
but the few doubts are there so no bet. With only 7 runners I don't want to takea chance on place bet either.

Going back to race times I mean the "off" times rather than speed.
7.00 Flamborough Breeze
This one likes Kempton and especially over 8f.
Also likes running between 7.30-8.30pm
It's not something I look at but found it interesting this morning to relate to winning race "off times" in that race.
Pastoral Jet likes to run around 17.00 and South Cape is an afternoon performer.

On another twist 19 horses this year have won LTO and carried Top Weight with penalty in low grade Hcps (E,F,G)
Of those 15 started favourite and FIVE won.
Two short priced favourites - the only ones who won their last TWO races failed to win.

No bets today.

Double Top struck lucky yesterday with 10/1 winner from four selections.
That was first DT winner for Derek Shaw and 38th  winner from 298 selects.(3yo+ Hcps)
In D grade hcps (class 4) the win strike rate for 3yo+ is now 9-54 showing profit 32points.
Backing with claiming jockeys is only 1 from 16 (Loyalty). Four big priced winners since October are responsible for the profit though.
Awaiting a full year of DT data before full assessment of this system.

Todays DT's
2.10 Crystal Peaks UNPLThis one has sneaked in on overnights.
DT win rate for Apprentice Hcps 1-10

2.40 Misleading Promise 3rd 5/4f
DT win strike rate in 3yo sellers 0-4

3.40 Spin Again  2nd 2/1f
DT win strike rate in F Hcps 11-100 and on losing streak of 25 (longest streak was 27 losers)
However when Mirror spot (like today) 3-12
But 8yo's have poor record AW in this grade 0-9 and 0-22 all grades.
That just shows that the ratings on these older horses is based upon younger form.

4.40 Star Of Rohm  2nd 1/2f
DT win strike rate 3YO mdn 14-32 and 9-15 when both Mirror & Express spots (like today)

If any, Star Of Rohm looks best but not for me when all four runners from top stables.


Other stuff
My interest is in 4.10 Maiden today
Having checked the race stats and compared some trainers stats the likely winner is still unclear.

A Matrix of Haggas maidens says Botteen is unlikely to win.
Smilarly with Hills stable, who's FTO mdn runners in Jan-Feb months run well and mostly placed but rarely win.

The race stats say eight 3yo's have won which probably rules out the 4yo's.
Two FTO runners have won 9/2 & 11/8f
The remainder bar one have all been placed 2nd or 3rd in a race.
Two runners won with single run and four with three or more runs.

The favourites have won 7 of the 8 races so far.
That goes along with all 7f AW 3yo+ maidens in E grade races during February 2009-12 with 15 of the 19 races going to the favourite.
This year so far it's 4 wins from 6 races.
That gives us 76% chance that the favourite will win today.
Just taking Lingfield track it's 6 wins from 8 races.

The biggest surprise was 6yo Diplomatic winning at 33/1 - at Lingfield
Generally the winner is priced up to 9/4 but there have been three 7/2 - 4/1 winners.

Those stats tend to rule out a bet for me, as I'm against both first & second favs.
Common sense would say follow the money (Storm) but with just 1 win with FTO filly v colts Jan-Feb months
and four of the seven runners priced at 2/1 and less - it's not impressive.
Widen the search to include all fills v colts (not just FTO) the figures get better 7-26 and 5-15 at Lingfield track.

The next stage is the horse is EW in Mirror. (3 wins - 30 AW mdn runners)
I'll watch the betting with interest (and the race) but my cash will probably stay in account.

RESULT; Botteen WON 5/1 Storm 2nd 7/4f

Todays Double Top runners
3.50 Albahan UNPL
4.20 Loyalty WON 10/1
5.20 Dvinsky UNPL
4.30 He's A Striker UNPL
None of these tempt me today.

All four trainers are on "Cold List" as far as DTops.
The win rate in 3yo Mdn races (He's A Striker) is near 50% mark and comparing all 4 trainers in race only David Simcock has had a DTop winner in this race type. He has two in race today. SIMCOCK won with his only runner 15/8f as other was non runner

The WOLVERHAMPTON card throws up pretty interesting race stats from 10year trends.
Taking the four Hcp races, at this meeting,there have been a total of 31 races over last seven to 9 years
AGE 4, 5 & 6YO provided 29 winners (NOW 31 from 35 races)
Course & CD winners 22 winners  NOW 26 winners from 35 races
Placed LTO  21 winners  NOW 23 winners from 35 races
Won Current year  16 winners NOW 18 winners

Those are pretty good basic stats.
I've played some 2x2x2 mixed doubles and treble on first three hcps
The 5.30 race is the weakest for the stats.

I'm never happy backing horses that won their last two or three races, as in the lower grades the handicappers weight rise normally takes it's toll.

2.30 race stats qualifiers Monumental Man, MJ Woodward and Holy Angel.
All are 4yo's with two and three wins on trot.
I prefer Holy Angel but that is currently favourite and it's not a favs race (0-1-2-7)W-2nd-3rd-Unpl
Looking at 5f sprints and WLTO the days since ran are quite low and Monumental Man has been off 6 weeks.
Joe Fanning gets on really well with MJ Woodward and it should be an interesting finish.
UPDATE
Holy Angel last away and finished 2nd 5/2fav. Thats a chance one takes with claimers aboard.

3.30 Waving and Wordiness
The latter has recently changed stables but not ownership.
This has proved a favourites race (5 wins & 2 seconds from 7 races)
Update Wordiness Won Evens fav

4.00 (Apprentice Hcp)
Silver Alliance and Travelling  - but only age prevents Faithfull Ruler
Update; Travelling WON 3/1

Two trainers with winners at previous meetings are Mark Johnston & Brian Baugh
The Johnston stable have a runner in each of the maidens - races they have won previously.
Update; Flashlight Won 1/3fav for M.J. 
Brian Baugh went home with two 2nds

Brian Baugh with a stable of 34 horses last year and has had 13 runners this year, takes 5 runners to Wolverhampton.
Arguably one of his better chances is with Loulou Vuitton, but Andrew Mullen appears to be having his first ride for Baugh today on this filly - whilst it's more regular rider Willie Carson goses to Kempton to ride Pearl Nation - the highest earner for stable last year.
Update; Pearl Nation 5th having raced keenly early on. This might be one to follow.

It's a very small stakes day with a few £2 bets for interest.
Profit on days says 0.48p but that doesn't take the multiples loss into account.

Double Top runners today
1.20 Aryal 2ND 2/5
This one has improved each race and looks the likely winner today
M J has a 35% strike rate with DT's.
I'm abstaining on this due to price.

3.05 Planteur won 2/5
Marco Botti's strike rate with DT's is NIL from 9.
This is another odds on shot.

Nothing else today and I'll take a break from Racing.