Pinza

Double Top struck lucky yesterday with 10/1 winner from four selections.
That was first DT winner for Derek Shaw and 38th  winner from 298 selects.(3yo+ Hcps)
In D grade hcps (class 4) the win strike rate for 3yo+ is now 9-54 showing profit 32points.
Backing with claiming jockeys is only 1 from 16 (Loyalty). Four big priced winners since October are responsible for the profit though.
Awaiting a full year of DT data before full assessment of this system.

Todays DT's
2.10 Crystal Peaks UNPLThis one has sneaked in on overnights.
DT win rate for Apprentice Hcps 1-10

2.40 Misleading Promise 3rd 5/4f
DT win strike rate in 3yo sellers 0-4

3.40 Spin Again  2nd 2/1f
DT win strike rate in F Hcps 11-100 and on losing streak of 25 (longest streak was 27 losers)
However when Mirror spot (like today) 3-12
But 8yo's have poor record AW in this grade 0-9 and 0-22 all grades.
That just shows that the ratings on these older horses is based upon younger form.

4.40 Star Of Rohm  2nd 1/2f
DT win strike rate 3YO mdn 14-32 and 9-15 when both Mirror & Express spots (like today)

If any, Star Of Rohm looks best but not for me when all four runners from top stables.


Other stuff
My interest is in 4.10 Maiden today
Having checked the race stats and compared some trainers stats the likely winner is still unclear.

A Matrix of Haggas maidens says Botteen is unlikely to win.
Smilarly with Hills stable, who's FTO mdn runners in Jan-Feb months run well and mostly placed but rarely win.

The race stats say eight 3yo's have won which probably rules out the 4yo's.
Two FTO runners have won 9/2 & 11/8f
The remainder bar one have all been placed 2nd or 3rd in a race.
Two runners won with single run and four with three or more runs.

The favourites have won 7 of the 8 races so far.
That goes along with all 7f AW 3yo+ maidens in E grade races during February 2009-12 with 15 of the 19 races going to the favourite.
This year so far it's 4 wins from 6 races.
That gives us 76% chance that the favourite will win today.
Just taking Lingfield track it's 6 wins from 8 races.

The biggest surprise was 6yo Diplomatic winning at 33/1 - at Lingfield
Generally the winner is priced up to 9/4 but there have been three 7/2 - 4/1 winners.

Those stats tend to rule out a bet for me, as I'm against both first & second favs.
Common sense would say follow the money (Storm) but with just 1 win with FTO filly v colts Jan-Feb months
and four of the seven runners priced at 2/1 and less - it's not impressive.
Widen the search to include all fills v colts (not just FTO) the figures get better 7-26 and 5-15 at Lingfield track.

The next stage is the horse is EW in Mirror. (3 wins - 30 AW mdn runners)
I'll watch the betting with interest (and the race) but my cash will probably stay in account.

RESULT; Botteen WON 5/1 Storm 2nd 7/4f