orioles

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

Verlander is aces, but the Tigers are struggling to score and Colon is a new man.

If you look at their figures L3, Colon is 1.02/1.84, Verlander 1.21/4.26 WHIP/ERA, seemingly giving the pinstripes the edge on the mound too - it's just Bartolo is only getting a shot because Hughes has fallen over and I'd never rush to favour him in this matchup.

However, Detroit aren't getting the runs home and, despite the fact that Verlander is strong at home against the Yankees, I can't turn down the 2.25 on offer on the bombers.

Pick: Yankees @ 2.25

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

19-20 (-0.02pts)

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Oakland can't hit; Texas can't pitch. Harrison lasted 1.2 innings last night, allowing six hits and four runs, and striking out one, on 49 pitches. I know exactly how bad he was; I started him in one of my fantasy sides.

Rather worryingly for the Rangers, Holland is on another of my teams and I'm going to start him tonight too, and I'm starting him for the same reason I started Harrison last night; the A's are in the bottom five in OPS against lefties and I don't believe they'll give McCarthy enough run support to win the game.

I'll back the Texas hitters.

Pick: Rangers @ 1.95

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

19-19 (+0.98pts)

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Neither team is hitting the cover off the ball and the two pitchers tonight (Cliff Lee and Chris Young) have decent enough numbers this season, that means the Totals line is low at 7. However, both pitchers have been prone to the long ball recently and that's dangerous in Citizens Bank Park. Of the two, Lee seems to be the more solid (he k'd 12 last time out) and Young is coming back with his second start after a spell on the DL - always dangerous. Reports out of the Mets also say Young was one of the recent flu victims.

If the Phils were still boasting that punch in the middle of the order I'd feel happier taking on the Totals, but both teams are barely hitting over .200 L10 against right and left handers, so I'll take the runline here and hope Lee locks it down and the Phils stick a couple over the wall.

Pick: Phils -1.5 @ 2.2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

19-18 (+1.98pts)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins

The Twins are banged up and creaking at the plate; they had to work their bullpen hard last time out, after Liriano got the hook early. I like Hellickson's stuff and the Rays are putting together a little momentum, going over .500 - they've also won the last 3 (there's that pesky streak!)

Apart from lacking some key players, Blackburn has struggled of late and the 1.98 on offer for the Rays looks the value here.

Pick: Rays @ 1.98

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

18-18 (+1pt)

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo is struggling posing 1.84/8.27 L3 and while Sam LeCure is hardly throwing lightning bolts, the Reds must be value at 2.35.

Pick: Reds @ 2.35

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

17-18 (-0.35pts)

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

The streak principle plays big here - jump on the 4th game either way - and the Chisox have dropped three in a row (and 10 of their last 11) while the bombers are going in the other direction and are headed for their fourth consecutive win.

Burnett wouldn't ordinarily inspire overwhelming confidence (in fact, Humber's numbers are marginally stronger and he's no mug, despite bouncing around the bigs before being claimed off waivers) but the Yanks are hitting the ball hard and rolling along nicely, while Chicago seemingly can't make contact, can't field and the bullpen is just horrible.

Last 10 versus righties, the White Sox are hitting a princely .195, and although they have traditionally hit Burnett hard, they look and sound like a team that is in crisis.

I might be tempted by Overs, but the wind is blowing in and the weather forecast isn't great, so I'm going to bet the runline and hope the misery continues for the southsiders.

Pick: Yanks -1.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

17-17 (+0.65pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals

Westbrook is 0-2 at home, with an ERA an eye-watering 18.41 and a WHIP of 2.73. There is a hard and fast rule in the bigs; you put lots of people on base, and you'll give up plenty of runs. It makes Edinson Volquez' 3.00/1.00 away figures look aces - although he has benefited from an outing at Petco Park. Overall, though, Volquez has struggled too, 6.75/1.59 doesn't inspire confidence and he's also handing out too many extra bases.

Also, Westbrook is on three days rest and looks vulnerable.

I want to go Over, but the line is high, Busch Stadium is a miserly park for runs, the wind is in from centre and it's a cool night ... what the hell, I'll buy half a run and hope that at least one of these pitchers gets shelled.

Over 8.5 @ 1.87

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

17-16 (+1.65pts)

LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

~Delay~

The game should go ahead, but it may not be live on ESPN America.

No bet.

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

17-16 (+1.65pts)

Washington Nationals @ St Louis Cardinals

Lohse is finally fit and has rediscovered his form on the mound, Pujols may also be beginning to find his stroke after a slow start. Tom Gorzelanny tends to give up runs at Busch Stadium and sports an ERA north of 8 on the road. Interestingly, Lohse has a 5.14 ERA at home, indicating Overs might be the bet.

I can't have the Cardinals at 1.6+, and I'm slightly nervous about the weather and Bill Welke behind home, so I'm going to invest in the St Louis bats (they hit lefties ok) and hope Lohse carries his good form into this game.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 @ 2.3

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

16-16 (+0.35pts)

Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles

Morneau, Young and Mauer look to be out for the Twins, and both these teams are struggling for form. Blackburn and Britton both started brightly, but each got roughed up last time out.

I've got a suspicion that one of these two may take some punishment tonight, but it's difficult to be confident which one. Although I suspect it may be Blackburn, I'm not completely sold on Britton, and certainly not at 1.7 or less.

I'm going Over.

Pick: Over 8.5 @ 2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

15-16 (-0.65 pts)