orioles

Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles

Masterson has been solid and has made hay against the O's already this season - although he struggles at Camden Yards. Cleveland need to get their game together to get back on top of the Tigers and the AL Central.

Baltimore are in freefall and look in disarray and Guthrie, who is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last four starts and has a major league-worst 12 losses, doesn't look like halting a 7 game skid.

Pick: Indians @ 1.91

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

68-66 (+4.05pts)

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

Mike Pelfrey has stunk it up on the road, and even though he managed a shut out win at Dodger Stadium, he had to pitch out of some dangerous moments, including two bases loaded jams. This contrasts with the team road record: the Mets are 5-0-1 in their last six series away from Citi Field.

Pelfrey has a good record against the Giants (2-1, 2.04) and has good numbers against tonight's lineup, with a .252/.316/.350 line.

Matt Cain is the strongest pitcher by some measure, but a tough outing last time out, when he gave up five runs on eight hits in a loss against the soft-hitting Padres is not a good sign. However, he shouldn't be underestimated, with a 7-5 record and a season ERA of just 3.22 (2.81 at home).

The factor that swings this for me, like last night, is the price available on the road dog, where they have a better claim than the price suggests.

It's the Metropolitans in the rubber match.

Pick: Mets @ 2.42

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

68-65 (+5.05pts)

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

I'm looking forward to this: two pitchers with great stuff, with first and second in the NL East facing off.

Hanson - five game winning streak, with a 1.97 ERA over that stretch and 38ks in 32 innings.
Lee - 0.83/2.13 WHIP/ERA L3.

However, Lee got knocked about in his last start, and Philly are a little banged up on O - best price 2.4 Braves looks big.

Atlanta's questionable offense gives me pause, but what the hey, I can't resist.

Other than that, this looks like Unders, so I'll save it with a nice price at uncle Joe's.

Pick: Braves @ 2.4
Pick: Under 6.5 @ 2.00

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

66-65 (+2.65pts)

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Before the rainout last night, I wrote that I thought the Yankees weren't really focussed enough and if that really is the case, a bet on the Rays becomes even stronger tonight.

Although Price got roughed up last time out, the All-Star has the better numbers and the experience to out perform Burnett this afternoon. The Yankees' lineup is hitting just .217 against Price and he's the value here.

Pick: Rays @ 2.1

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

66-64 (+3.65pts)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Arrieta is not a bust, but the Birds are, and that hurts.

Jake has actually put together 11 quality starts this season. Also Baltimore has a decent enough recent record at Fenway, so there is a temptation to take the price on offer for them to beat the Sox.

However, I'm going to bottle that bet, perhaps because the pain of a loss on national TV and flushing money would just be too much - I've paid my dues as an Orioles' fan!

Actually, there's a strong case for the Red Sox too - Miller has been strong since coming into Boston and is 2-0 with a 1.47/3.06 line. With the offense he has behind him, it's a brave move to oppose him at home.

Instead, I'm going to go Over. It's Fenway and Baltimore are hitting lefties at the rate of .325 L10 and the Bosox are just hitting; so with young pitchers up, I'm looking for some runs.

It's not a big bet, but I'll take a little interest in Overs with my cocoa and slippers.

Nurse!

Pick: Over 10.5 @ 2.00

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

65-64 (+2.65pts)

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

Colorado are rocking and everything favours the Braves.

Sorry.

Hudson can shut down the cold Rockies' bats and the Braves can give Juan Nicasio a tough time: his numbers L3 and splits are poor. Overs is tempting, and it will probably require Nicasio to get shelled, but Atlanta are heating up and there's some encouragement with Scott Barry umpiring.

Although it's by no means my favourite baseball bet (in general, I don't like to lay the runs at all, and certainly not at home) these two teams are heading in opposite directions at a rate of knots, and as Newmarket was kind to me today, I'm also going to take an interest in the run line.

Pick: Over 7.5 @ 2.1
Pick: Braves -1.5 @ 2.3

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

63-64 (+0.32pts)

New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians

Well, having announced that Cuddyer would finally buckle: he was aces! Luckily, the Twins decided to play really sloppy baseball.

This matchup sees the return of Phil Hughes after a disastrous start to the season and a lengthy trip to the DL with serious shoulder problems.

It's generally a solid rule of mine that pitchers coming off the DL where they've had to rebuild, are to be opposed and I'm not going to change that because he's in pinstripes.

Hughes' velocity is apparently back up, but he was in real trouble and it was a long way back.

The Indians should prove a real challenge, particularly with Masterson on the mound: L3 he has gone 0.97/1.37 and if he had got any run support, he'd be way above .500 on the season.

The Tribe are the value.

Pick: Indians @ 2.00

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

62-64 (-0.68pts)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins

The Rays/Davis combo has put a kink in Liriano and the Twins already this season and I'm going to take the road dog today.

Davis has been strong L3, and while Minnesota have been winning (despite their growing list of injured players) Cuddyer has been carrying the load, but he is hitting just .182 against Davis in 11 ABs, so the Twins' luck may run out.

Liriano has been shaky at home and even after a decent outing last time, still has a 6.55 ERA at Target Field: he has a .299/.382/.403 line against these Rays' hitters.

If the Twins are ahead and Capps comes in to close, you might want to Lay Minnesota - he's having an awful time and there might be some value about.

As it is, let's hope the Rays are cruising by then.

Pick: Rays @ 2.1

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

61-64 (-1.78pts)

Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals

St Louis should take this, but Garcia's latest outing and the price, mean I can't take them tonight - even though Albert is back (but not starting).

Garcia is 4-1 with a 0.84/0.88 WHIP/ERA in seven home games, and although he has been sketchy in his last few starts, his numbers at Busch can't be ignored: he has won all four starts against the Reds, posting a 3.70 ERA.

Volquez' last start against the Rays was somewhat better than his stats L3 would suggest: he allowed three earned runs on four hits and struck out seven.

'Busch Stadium finished in the bottom 10 in HRs, runs and SLG% last season, cementing its status as a pitchers park.'

I'll go Under and hope Volquez can keep a little form and Garcia shuts down the Reds.

Pick: Under 8 @ 2.00

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

61-63 (-0.78pts)

**Happy 4th July**

Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins

You can't hang out with the guys on the Phillies' pitching staff and not learn a thing or two - and Worley seems to have benefited in spades.

Thankfully for Florida, Nolasco has found his form again and is finally showing his true colours.

As a result, last 3, these two have strong stats' lines:

Worley 1.06/1.00/.264 WHIP/ERA/OBP
Nolasco 1.05/3.43/.262

The Philadelphia lineup is hitting just .228 lifetime against Nolasco, and with only 25 ABs, the Marlins are hitting .200 against Worley.

The wind looks as though it's marginally blowing in, so I'll go Under tonight.

Pick: Under 8 @ 1.95

-------------------------

2011 Season (Level Stakes)

60-63 (-1.73pts)