orioles

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

Mike Pelfrey has stunk it up on the road, and even though he managed a shut out win at Dodger Stadium, he had to pitch out of some dangerous moments, including two bases loaded jams. This contrasts with the team road record: the Mets are 5-0-1 in their last six series away from Citi Field.

Pelfrey has a good record against the Giants (2-1, 2.04) and has good numbers against tonight's lineup, with a .252/.316/.350 line.

Matt Cain is the strongest pitcher by some measure, but a tough outing last time out, when he gave up five runs on eight hits in a loss against the soft-hitting Padres is not a good sign. However, he shouldn't be underestimated, with a 7-5 record and a season ERA of just 3.22 (2.81 at home).

The factor that swings this for me, like last night, is the price available on the road dog, where they have a better claim than the price suggests.

It's the Metropolitans in the rubber match.

Pick: Mets @ 2.42

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

68-65 (+5.05pts)