orioles

*Edit: Sorry about the confusing price on Pittsburgh! I'd flip-flopped on the pick and left in the wrong line/price. The Pick was, of course, Pittsburgh -2.5.

I'd also like to thank Joe Flacco for ramming my criticism of him down my throat in an astonishing finish

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Baltimore (5-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2)
Ch4, Monday November 7th, 1am

This should be the sort of throwback, brutal football I love: but it’s a very difficult pick.

The Ravens are flat out the best defensive team in football; 2nd in points given up, 1st in total yards, 3rd in pass yards and 3rd in rushing yards. The problem is Flacco, who is notoriously unpredictable and he’s facing a defense that is ranked respectively; 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 8th in the same defensive categories.

Pittsburgh have some key players out at LB; James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley are missing and James Harrison is carrying an injury and that must weaken the pass rush and make Ray Rice’s job at least marginally easier, although I doubt it means an armchair ride for him or Flacco.

Ben Roethlisberger has really stepped up this season and some of his younger receiving talent has improved as Ben’s form has surged, meaning that he has some fine targets downfield. Mike Wallace is such a talented receiver and gave the Ravens such a tough time, even in the Week 1 loss, that I expect him to draw a lot of coverage tonight, which may allow Antonio Brown, Hines Ward and Heath Miller to find a little space, although the latter may find himself blocking to help stem the Baltimore pass rush.

Rashard Mendenhall will have a tough night and his role is likely to be limited to relieving some pressure on Roethlisberger – and it shouldn’t be forgotten that as well as he’s playing, Big Ben occasionally makes errors under pressure and Terrell Suggs is something of a nemesis for the Steelers’ QB.

Joe Flacco is the difference here; he is limited and needs time and receivers who can get clear separation – in other words, he doesn’t have the skill set to put the ball in safe areas and let his receivers get there – and even then, he sometimes misses some open targets. Anquan Boldin is a favourite receiver (there’s not a lot else, in truth) but he will draw Ike Taylor who can physically dominate Boldin sufficiently to take him out of the game.

The Ravens will lean heavily on Ray Rice and he may be their best chance of taking out the Steelers tonight, both on the ground and catching out of the backfield, but again, the Steelers have bottled up runners well – my only reservation is their missing personnel.

As I said, this should be as tight as it will be brutal, but I think the balance is under centre. I’ll give the points.

Pick: Steelers -3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

Pick: 1st TD Mike Wallace @ 9.0; 800; 8/1
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 3.1; 210; 21/10

Sky Sports 2, Sunday November 6th, 9pm

Last week I wrote, “The riddle of Rivers; what’s out of whack?” Well, whatever it is, it doesn’t look like he’s working it out. I was reading an interview with LaDainian Tomlinson during the week (and if anyone can understand Rivers’ game, it must be LT) and he believes that his old QB is ‘distracted’, although quite by what, it’s difficult to know, so the mystery continues.

Looking at the Bolts’ trigger man’s numbers for the last five years, we see that his TD/INT ratio is 30/13; 28;9; 34/11; 21/15; 22/9 and ... 7/11. That’s not going to get anything done in the NFL.

Tonight’s matchup won’t help; the San Diego receivers aren’t getting separation, making Rivers force in passes, and he doesn’t seem to have the zip or accuracy to keep doing that, besides which, the Green Bay corners are strong. Rivers is getting sacked much too much (11 times in four games) behind a line that is finding it difficult to protect him, so  expect the Pack to bring the house; Clay Matthews matching up on Jeromey Clary is a nightmare for the home team.

The Chargers’ run game is struggling with injuries, with Tolbert looking to carry the load, and although Green Bay have given up yards on the ground recently, they’ve done so against an elite group of backs. Tolbert might find some room, but I think Rivers could find himself throwing a lot, particularly if they get behind. His favourite target, Antonio Gates (some people have speculated his injury has been part of the reason Rivers has looked so lacklustre) is getting fitter, and that on its own should mean he’ll get the ball; Gates was only robbed of a score last week by a duff penalty call.

Green Bay? Rodgers to variously: Jennings (look for a big play deep, early), Nelson, Finley, Driver, Jones with Grant and Starks changing it up. Luis Castillo and Shaun Phillips are banged up and it’s unlikely Rodgers is going to come under too much pressure and even if he does, he tends to find something downfield. The Chargers, Weddle apart, are weak deep and the way Rodgers spreads the love, it could be a torrid night for the San Diego secondary.

Now, this all sounds like the Packers should blow the doors off the Chargers, but San Diego aren’t hopeless, particularly at home (and Rivers’ record as a dog is 12-6 ATS) and if their QB ‘gets well’ they’ll be transformed, because more than any other sport, the player under centre in the NFL sets the quality of his whole team, but for me the big danger is the Packers switching back on after a Bye week (and extended time off from Mike McCarthy) keeping their concentration, and keeping the hammer down – however, they demand to be backed here.

Pick: Packers -5.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings @ 8.5; 750; 15/2
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.37; 137; 11/8

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2)
Sky Sports 2, Sunday 6th November 6pm

This is a HUGE game, it’s unlikely three teams are going to progress from the AFC East, so the stakes could not be higher.

Have the Jets got it together? Well, they seem to be making progress on offense – perhaps because Nick Mangold being back in game shape has set Shonn Greene rolling and their receivers have started to catch a few balls, but they’re still not stopping the run too well and that’s a problem with Fred Jackson tearing it up; Fitzpatrick has also shown real talent under centre.

Mark Sanchez is essentially a game manager, which is hardly what it said on the box when the Jets unpacked him and today he’ll be handing it off to Greene and LT a lot. Sanchez still lacks the consistency of a top NFL QB and worryingly, if the Jets get behind, they will be forced to throw on a Bills’ defense that is opportunistic – the Bills boast a +9 turnover ratio. That’s worth bearing in mind for you in-running bettors; if the Jets’ runners don’t hit some gaps early, you might want to adjust your exposure.

Greene/LT can get it done because although Marcell Dareus and Dwan Edwards did well last week, I think we’ll begin to see the impact of the loss of Kyle Williams in this game and Buffalo rank 20th against the run. Deeper, the Jets have talent with Holmes, Burress (if he goes), and Keller (who matches up nicely here on less mobile Buffalo LBs) and the success of the run game may mean Sanchez find a little time and room.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (find a spread on the mention of him attending Harvard and sell it!) has been solid, but he’ll face a very different defense to the declining Redskins of last week. A more aggressive pass rush will test a Bills’ offensive line that is nicked up and may struggle to give their QB the usual time to move in the pocket and hit receivers as efficiently as he has previously this season.

Steve Johnson looks bound for Revis Island. Scott Chandler is an interesting play in the TD market; the Jets often like to put six defensive backs in and Chandler can match up nicely because of his size. Fitzpatrick gives him the occasional look in the redzone and his reception to TD conversion rate is high.

Fred Jackson is the key to this game; he has been a horse this year (I love the story about his wife drafting him in the 5th round in her fantasy league) and will have to carry his side today. As I mentioned above, the Jets like to use sub-packages on D to pack the box and that might complicate things for the Bills - it’s a tactical matchup I’m looking forward to, but Jackson might just blow this game up if the New York D can’t slow him down.

I’m going to take the Jets here - they will run first and if they get ahead, they’ll hope the defense can choke off the game, but the Bills are more than capable of winning here, so don’t bet the all the kids’ lunch money.

However, New York are marginally better balanced and if they can just hang on to Fred Jackson, they can win this. I like the Overs too.

Pick: Jets +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6

Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Plaxico Burress @ 15; 1400; 14/1
Pick: Anytime TD Scott Chandler @ 2.63; 162; 13/8
Dustin Keller @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

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NFL Record 2011
Remember, the bet against the spread is the main bet.

ATS
18-13 (58%)

First TD               
+3pts
Anytime TD
-9.5pts

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MLB Record 2011

128-120 (+27.55pts)

San Diego (4-2) at Kansas City (3-3)
ESPN, Tuesday November 1st, 12.30am

The riddle of Rivers; what’s out of whack? His mechanics, his below par receivers, is he injured? Well, his numbers have been poor all season and I have a suspicion it’s a combination of all three and that tonight, some elements may come back together.

I had previously dismissed the theory that the lockout has adversely affected some teams – but I’m beginning to think I was wrong, and teams that had either brought a lot of new faces in, or where injury had prevented players from getting into synch, have taken time to come good this season; witness the ‘new’ Philadelphia.

I’m not going to suggest that was the only factor in the Eagles’ astonishing transformation, but it may have played, and it could happen here. Rivers has missed a fully fit Gates, and similarly Vincent Jackson must begin to get sharper (he was awful LTO) It’s not good that Malcolm Floyd has gone down, but Kansas don’t have a fearsome pass rush and have a secondary that misses Eric Berry badly, so this game may allow the San Diego offense to find some rhythm.

The Bolts can attack Kansas on the ground too (the Chiefs have given up 9th most rushing YPG) and Mathews must get going to take the strain if Rivers is still misfiring; look for Tolbert close in.

Matt Cassel has been as uninspiring as Rivers, but he does have the formidable Dwayne Bowe out wide. Antoine Cason was violated by the Jets and if he starts (there’s no guarantee he will) he reflects a pass defense that can be beaten deep and struggles at safety. However, San Diego ranks 4th in YPG given up to the pass, so Cassel will need to work for his yards.

The run game has been difficult for Kansas and is frankly a bit of a mess, but Jackie Battle looks like the way forward, he’s a big unit who likes to play a little smash mouth and the Chargers do sometimes struggle to bottle up the run.

In truth, by the numbers, there’s not a great deal between these two, but I think the slight edge San Diego have statistically reflects Kansas playing closer to their full potential than the bolts have managed so far, and I’ll take them to improve tonight and cover.

Pick: Chargers -3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Antonio Gates @ 8.0; 700; 7/1 (Tolbert out)
Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Gates @ 2.00; 100; Evens

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)
Channel 4, Monday October 31st, 12.30am

Could there be life in Philly? Well, maybe, but tonight may not be the night.

The really interesting matchup here is the Eagles’ O line, up against the ever-improving Cowboys’ pass rush.  Dallas have come on leaps and bounds on the defensive side and Ryan has really got them rolling – which means Vick must keep upright and show some of that new composure he’s supposed to have found, because if the Cowboys have a weakness, it’s vertically. If Vick can hit DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin deep, the Eagles have got a chance.

The other way of blunting the pass rush is to use LeSean McCoy catching out of the backfield; Philadelphia won’t get much joy on the ground against a defense that ranks 3rd in YPC, so the change up is vital as a safety valve in the face of what will doubtless be a succession of blitzes. The problem is, Dallas have been tough against that option too.

Romo has seen his role change subtly as the season has gone on; with less of a gun-slinging approach adopted by Jason Garrett, and although I don’t see DeMarco Murray having anything like the game he had last week, the Eagles do give up yards on the ground. The Philadelphia pass rush has got well, and the Dallas O line has some issues, which all points to Romo handing it off a fair amount tonight, or looking for Witten on quick passes.

Like my earlier feeling about opposing a Tebow led offense, I’m going to take the points here. When QBs like Vick come under pressure, they’re prone to turnovers (over his last four games, Vick has 5 TDs, but 7 INTs) and that will kill you in the NFL and even if that doesn’t, the Dallas D can be the difference.

Pick: Cowboys +3 @ 200; 100; Evens

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 12; 1100; 11/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten @ 2.63; 162; 13/8

Detroit (5-2) at Denver (2-4)
Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 8pm

It looks as though the Detroit train has eased up to the buffers, but I think some Denver coal may relight the boiler.

My primary concern in my season preview of the Lions was always Stafford, and although that focussed on his physical fragility, the pressure he has come under behind a weak line, has meant that his offensive powers have also suffered recently, with poor recognition and inaccurate throws, and that’s a big problem when your main threat is  Calvin Johnson.

Von Miller will be trying to get to Stafford all day and given the level the rookie LB has been playing at, he’s liable to get there – then Lions’ fans need to pray that he doesn’t knock Stafford out of the game. Megatron and Pettigrew should be able to profit from what is (outside Champ Bailey) a poor Denver secondary and Stafford is going to need his favourite targets to get it done, because he has no ground game to help him out, as Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams aren’t getting it done.

Now, Tim Tebow. I have to confess, I’m not convinced; he had a rough time last week, then came through at the end, and the world (well, Denver) seemed to put aside any doubts. Consider this though, that was against the Miami defense; Ndamukong Suh and his buddies are going to come after him with rather more punch tonight, and Tebow had better be on his toes.

Willis McGahee is out, and that means Timmy will likely be running even more (like Detroit, the help off the bench in the shape of Moreno is poor) and that makes me nervous because it plays to my prejudices against guys with questionable mechanics under centre who rely on natural guile to get out of trouble; it often means broken plays and eventually; catastrophe.

I’m going to play against Tebow.

Pick: Lions -3 @ 1.8; -125; 4/5

Pick: 1st TD Brandon Pettigrew @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Tim Tebow @ 2.05; 105; 21/20

Minnesota (1-6) at Carolina (2-5)
Sky Sports, Sunday October 30th, 5pm

I like the Panthers in this one. Although Adrian Peterson may go for enough yards to qualify for the London 2012 marathon, Carolina should have enough to see off the Vikings.

Cam Newton is an extraordinary player who is progressing nicely, improving his accuracy and reads, protecting possession, while still maintaining his elusiveness and danger when he extends a play. The Vikings have a capable pass rush, so Newton’s O line will need to keep him upright, but they’ve come together well after losing Jeff Otah.

Newton should be able to get after the Vikes’ secondary and Steve Smith, reinvigorated by the young QB, could have a big day; his YPC this season stands at an incredible 21 and he’ll doubtless get a couple of chances to strike from a long way out. Jonathan Stewart looks as though he’s beginning to show signs of life too and although Minnesota defends the run well (but gave up 4.5 YPC last week to the Packers) he can lend balance to an already powerful offense.

Christian Ponder looked good last week and the Panthers aren’t ripping it up on defense, where they rank 27th against the run and 30th against the pass, so he can put up numbers in this game, particularly behind Peterson. Carolina will need to pressure him, but have only got to the opposition QB twelve times this season.

However, the Panthers will have dissected his game during the week, and Ponder has to deal with some injuries to an already nicked up line and his most effective receiver in a pretty average set of wideouts is severely limited with damaged ribs.

Peterson is the real danger here for the Panthers, because if he gets rolling and allows Ponder the time as the Carolina D sets up for the run, the Vikes could take this. For those of you who play in-running, it is critical that the Panthers get out in front, forcing Ponder to throw to catch up and taking some sting out of ‘All-Day’ by limiting his touches.

I’ll give the points, but stay on the key number.

Pick: Panthers -3 @ 1.8; -125; 4/5

Pick: 1st TD Cam Newton @ 7.0; 600; 6/1
Pick: Anytime TD Steve Smith @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards Over 102.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Starting Pitchers
Texas: Harrison (0-1, 7.36 ERA)
St. Louis: Carpenter (1-0, 2.77 ERA)

Where to go here? I’m not sure the standard analysis by the numbers has any relevance after last night’s astonishing game – I’m going instead with the NL advantage. If ever a game was designed for National League ‘small ball’; this is it.

Still, the tale of the tape? Carpenter doesn’t do well on three day’s rest, whereas Harrison has been poor down the stretch and into the post-season. The Cards must be surging and Texas are surely wondering what on earth they have to do to win it all.

Paddy Power go 1.83 St. Louis and that looks tempting; consider this, ‘The home team has won the last 8 World Series Game 7s. The last road team to win a World Series Game 7 was the Pirates over the Orioles in 1979.’ Damn them.

Don’t smash in at the price, Harrison is that pesky leftie in the ointment. Instead, and strictly to add more excitement (as if that were possible) take last night’s hero to do the unthinkable and homer during this deciding game.

Pick: Cardinals @ 1.83; -120; 5/6
Pick: David Freese to homer at anytime @ 9.5; 8500; 17/2

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)
126-120 (+27.68pts)

Starting Pitchers
Texas: Lewis (15-11, 4.28 ERA)
St. Louis: Garcia (13-9, 3.60 ERA)

Although this pick is largely down to price, Lewis is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three post-season starts and has been solid under pressure.

I've spoken before about how much I like Garcia, and he pitched seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in Game 2, striking out seven and besting Lewis, although Garcia didn't get the win. However, the hammer is really down now and he has shown weakness in the face of intense pressure.

The Cards just couldn't get people home in Game 5, going 1-12 RISP and there's a feeling their brilliant brinkmanship, and La Russa's genius, may have hit the buffers.

Gary Cederstrom provides some interesting stats: Under is 7-1 in his last eight interleague games behind home plate and Under is 14-3-1 in his last 18 games (12/21 O/U on the season).

Texas look the value and I'll take the Unders too.

Pick: Rangers @ 2.07; 107; 107/100
Pick: Under 7.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

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2011 Season (Level Stakes)

127-118 (+28.68pts)

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5)
ESPN, Tuesday October 24th, 1.30am

The Jags should struggle here.

MJD is a formidable runner, but he’s up against one of the stoutest run defenses in the NFL; that means Blaine Gabbert, who was sacked five times by the Steelers last week, will have to negotiate a Ravens’ D that has eleven sacks in their last three games.

Jacksonville’s O line is badly nicked up and apart from getting sacked regularly, Gabbert struggled to find his less than inspiring receivers last week. Haloti Ngata, Terrence Cody, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed ... it’s a lineup that would make a veteran nervous, never mind a rookie whose options include throwing to a guy cut by the Rams.

Joe Flacco is one of those QBs that gives a bettor fits (see late vintage Brett Favre or Rex ‘I didn’t see him’ Grossman) by suddenly becoming a completely different player, particularly on the road. However, Matt Roth and John Chick don’t provide the Jags with much of a pass rush, and he should have time enough in the pocket to keep mistakes to a minimum.

Although the Jacksonville secondary has decent numbers on the season, they’re banged up and by stacking the box to stop Ray Rice and attempting to manufacture a pass rush by blitzing, the Ravens’ offense should be able to exploit the resulting gaps in coverage. Boldin is beginning to run into form and Torrey Smith has developed into a potent big play threat after Evans went down. In truth, the Jags’ secondary doesn’t look strong.

While the Jags had some success against the run early in the season, they have been hurt on the ground recently and Rice can take advantage; he’s also dangerous catching out of the backfield - he’ll score at some point and will be the key offensive weapon in this game.

I seem to have spent a lot of this season ignoring principles I generally stick to, and not giving more than a TD on MNF to home dogs is one of those rules I particularly like; the problem is, I can’t see the Jags hanging in there tonight.

Pick: Ravens -10 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.63; 163; 13/8
Pick: Baltimore Sacks Buy @ 3.2 0.5pt/tick