orioles

Baltimore (4-1) at Jacksonville (1-5)
ESPN, Tuesday October 24th, 1.30am

The Jags should struggle here.

MJD is a formidable runner, but he’s up against one of the stoutest run defenses in the NFL; that means Blaine Gabbert, who was sacked five times by the Steelers last week, will have to negotiate a Ravens’ D that has eleven sacks in their last three games.

Jacksonville’s O line is badly nicked up and apart from getting sacked regularly, Gabbert struggled to find his less than inspiring receivers last week. Haloti Ngata, Terrence Cody, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed ... it’s a lineup that would make a veteran nervous, never mind a rookie whose options include throwing to a guy cut by the Rams.

Joe Flacco is one of those QBs that gives a bettor fits (see late vintage Brett Favre or Rex ‘I didn’t see him’ Grossman) by suddenly becoming a completely different player, particularly on the road. However, Matt Roth and John Chick don’t provide the Jags with much of a pass rush, and he should have time enough in the pocket to keep mistakes to a minimum.

Although the Jacksonville secondary has decent numbers on the season, they’re banged up and by stacking the box to stop Ray Rice and attempting to manufacture a pass rush by blitzing, the Ravens’ offense should be able to exploit the resulting gaps in coverage. Boldin is beginning to run into form and Torrey Smith has developed into a potent big play threat after Evans went down. In truth, the Jags’ secondary doesn’t look strong.

While the Jags had some success against the run early in the season, they have been hurt on the ground recently and Rice can take advantage; he’s also dangerous catching out of the backfield - he’ll score at some point and will be the key offensive weapon in this game.

I seem to have spent a lot of this season ignoring principles I generally stick to, and not giving more than a TD on MNF to home dogs is one of those rules I particularly like; the problem is, I can’t see the Jags hanging in there tonight.

Pick: Ravens -10 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.63; 163; 13/8
Pick: Baltimore Sacks Buy @ 3.2 0.5pt/tick