orioles

The Giants are strong on the road ATS (10-3-1 since 2011) and I'll take them to cover tonight.

Manning went 26 of 40 for 337, but looked slightly out of sync last week and Coughlin needs to get Bradshaw rolling, particularly catching out of the backfield now that the Cowboys have lost Sean Lee. Cruz is a beast and can prosper in this matchup where he's likely to draw Scandrick operating in the slot; look for the usual big play attempt with Cruz on the end.

Unfortunately for Dallas, they're badly depleted in the run game, because Washington ran all over the Giants last week: Phil Costa's absence won't help and the net result is that the Cowboys will need to rely on Romo's arm and he has struggled to produce consistently this season - largely because of continuing protection problems. The Giants will send four to attack the soft Dallas interior linemen and I suspect it may be a long day under centre for Tony.

Pick: New York Giants -2 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Victor Cruz @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Dez Bryant @ 2.2; NY Giants Defense @ 6.5

The Patriots are still misfiring a little on offense, but judging by the Rams' pass rush last week Tom Brady will have time to look downfield - that's a dangerous luxury to afford what is still a capable side like New England. Aaron Hernandez is out, so they'll need Brandon Lloyd to find some form, but the Pats have enough weapons (and decent balance on the ground) to put up points.

The Rams are no mugs and, were it not for their problems in the redzone, they might be in a very different place in the standings going into this game. Their problems up front continue however, and even with the already poor Pats' secondary banged up, there's no guarantee St Louis will have enough to keep this within a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3

Bumgarner comes good and the Giants are out to a two game lead.

I've taken a little of the 3.6+ available on the Tigers for the World Series. This is a team with a strong rotation and dangerous hitters and the Giants have ridden the wave of emotion at home and caught a few breaks, but if Detroit can find some form at the plate, they can come back in a hurry.

Tonight's game looks like going the way of the home team, but I can't back the Tigers at the price, especially as their bats are so anaemic and Vogelsong hasn't given up more than one run in his last six starts.

Of Sanchez's last ten starts, nine have been quality starts, so all the numbers suggest a pitchers' duel. It's at a cool Comerica and Fieldin Culbreth is 13/23 O/U behind home.

I'll go Under.

Under 7 @ 2.00

AP is the beating heart of the Viking offense and with the Bucs tough against the run, the home team may have to rely a little more on Christian Ponder's arm; but Ponder has turned the ball over seven times in the last three games and the Vikes clearly suffer when he has to throw. Set against this is a ponderous Bucs' secondary, still without the suspended Aqib Talib. If Ponder is to emerge, it must be tonight and I'm expecting to see Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson and Kyle Rudolph get more involved.

Josh Freeman had a big game last week, but it was against a Saints' defense giving up the third most yards per game through the air and the Vikings have a strong enough pass rush in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams to get after Freeman tonight. I like the balance of Doug Martin on the ground and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams out wide, but again, Minnesota are tough against the run and although they can give up the big play, Antoine Winfield is playing well and the secondary in general has stepped up.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Percy Harvin @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson @ 2.1

1.92/10.50; 1.53/2.55 WHIP/ERA Madison Bumgarner; Doug Fister L3. Tigers hitting lefties at .307 L5 and Giants just hitting.

I'd prefer it without Dan Iassogna behind home, but this goes Over.

Pick: Over 7 @ 2.00

Verlander has been brutal this season and even more so in the post-season, which is a change of pace for him as he traditionally fell away at this time of year. Barry Zito was aces last time out, but isn't in the same league as the Tigers' hurler tonight and he'll need to reproduce that form to get close.

However, Detroit have been sitting around the clubhouse for a week drinking beers and eating hot wings, with the back end of the bullpen not having thrown in quite a while longer. Meanwhile, San Francisco have hauled themselves back from the brink, largely because of the effect of playing at AT&T Park in front of their own fans.

With the downtime and this kind of momentum the Giants must be the value - it'll be a tough go, but I'll take the price on the home dog to upset Verlander (as if dating Kate Upton weren't enough!)

Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 2.55

Well, another hammering finishes off the season bets ...

AL East
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 11/2; 6.5; 550 ... LOST

AL West
Pick: Texas Rangers @ 23/20; 2.15; 115 ... LOST (by a game!)

AL Central
Pick: Detroit Tigers @ 27/100; 1.27; 127 ... WON

NL East
Pick: Atlanta Braves @ 7/1; 8.00; 700 ... LOST (I loved this bet and they just came up short)

NL West
Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 13/8; 2.63; 163 ... WON

NL Central
Pick: Cincinnati Reds @ 8/5; 2.60; 160 ... WON

AL Pennant: Tampa Bay Bays @ 14/1; 15; 1400 ... LOST
NL Pennant: San Francisco Giants @ 10/1; 11; 1000 ... WON

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays @ 25/1; 26; 2500 ... LOST

+8.50 on picks from six months ago, maybe I could make picks then!

Da Bears have got it going on on defense: tough against the run and dominating with a well-organised zone defense deep. They will pressure Matt Stafford all day without having to send everyone and unless Detroit lean on the promising Mikel Leshoure, it may be a long night under centre.

Matt Cutler won't have an armchair ride either, with his usual porous offensive line struggling to keep him upright. However, with Forte and Bush in the backfield, they have the ability to mix it up enough to let Cutler take some shots.

The crucial difference may be on special teams where Chicago are once again strong. That, and their defense, should give them a touchdown's advantage.

Pick: Chicago Bears -6.5 @ 1.95

The home team have the momentum and Bruce Bochy has the pitcher he'd want on the mound in a Game 7. Lohse was a little lucky not to get punished in Game 3 after putting so many batters on, but has generally pitched well in the post-season.

Both these clubs have been strong in clutch situations in October, but in terms of value, in an 'anything could happen' game, the Cards must be the value.

It should be a cracker

Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 2.28

An intriguing pick.

Pittsburgh have a number of crucial injuries on both sides of the ball and Roethlisberger is going to have little time and even less protection tonight against a quick, aggressive Bengals' pass rush that leads the league in sacks, especially as he'll have no run game to help.

Cincinnati have plenty of defensive talent, but don't rank as highly as I'd expected when I checked the numbers (17th/21st vs. pass/run) however their real problem is under centre. Andy Dalton is difficult to trust, which is a shame because in A J Green he has one of the most exciting wideouts in the game. Again, the run game is poor.

This comes down to the triggermen and in Big Ben we trust.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Jermaine Gresham @ 2.88