orioles

The Patriots have the sort of balanced offense I like to see in teams I bet on; their success on the ground complements nicely Brady's talent in hitting a gifted receiving corps. Losing Gronkowski is a blow (and although Hernandez is back, he's a different animal to the Gronk) but if anyone can re-jig an offense, it's Belichik. The Jets are solid against the pass, but soft against the run and it's likely that the familiar pattern of softening up a defense on the ground, before attacking them through the air, will be the order of the day.

Mark Sanchez must be one of the most put-upon QBs in the league, but he's shown some backbone to turn in some decent performances. If there was ever a game where he had the opportunity to put up numbers, it's today; New England's secondary is dire and even the addition of Aqib Talib doesn't address the fundamental shortcomings of a defense ranked 30th against the pass. 

Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Schilens and Dustin Keller will get opportunities, but it's a question of whether they can keep moving the chains with the run too.  Shonn Greene is a decent back and the Pats are by no means a shutdown run D, so it'll be interesting to see how the Jets balance their play calling; what is critical is that they execute, because they'll need to be at full throttle.

With new England injured and off a short week, I'm tempted by the Jets, but I still have the visitors by a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 @1.83

Pick: 1st TD  Wes Welker @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Shonn Greene @ 2.25; Jeremy Kerley @ 2.65

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions - Sky Sports 5.30pm

Last week the Texans got it going through the air, but I expect them to revert to type today and key on Arian Foster who can take advantage of the Lions' defense's tendency to over-pursue. The Jags loaded up the box last week and limited Foster nicely, and the Detroit run defense has had its moments, but Schaub's ability to air it out and a defensive inconsistency against the run means that Houston should be able to move the chains.

The Detroit inconsistency on D is reflected on the offense; Stafford has had a patchy season and was poor last week. That spread to the rest of the offense and culminated with Titus Young having a hissy fit on the sidelines which sees him benched today. The Texans were lit up by Chad Henne last week, which is not a good sign, but J.J. Watt is playing out of his mind (and the Pack got to Stafford last week without Clay Matthews) and I'm looking for a rebound performance this week.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Houston Texans -3 @ 1.86

Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 6
Pick: Anytime TD Owen Daniels @ 2.1

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys - Sky Sports 9.30pm

Shanny and RBs: the guy is a genius. If Washington get Alfred Morris rolling tonight, Dallas could be in trouble, and with the Cowboys' D line a little nicked up, the home team could struggle to put together a scheme that limits Morris and Robert Griffin III on the ground. RG3 can also look to exploit a Dallas secondary that has occasionally missed, particularly corner Morris Claiborne. How the Redskins cope with the Dallas pass rush will be critical, but RG3's talent out of the pocket will be a powerful advantage.

Tony Romo in November: 21 and 3. Ouch. Washington have been vulnerable deep, but over the last three games they've been much better. The intriguing aspect here will be whether Romo will be hobbled by the loss of key players on the Dallas O line; the Cowboys are down to their third string centre and Left Tackle Tyron Smith is injured. Dallas have given up sacks of late and if the away team can force them into 3rd and long situations, then Jim Haslett can dial up blitz packages to force Romo into mistakes. The Dallas run game is still a mess, so it will be up to Romo to win it; look for the Cowboys' wideouts to score therefore.

It's always difficult capping your own team, but I think the Redskins can keep this close, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Washington Redskins +3.5 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2

New England Patriots at New York Jets - Sky Sports 1.20am

To follow ...

As a couple of people have noticed, I really stepped it up last night by picking a baseball team to beat the Bears!

It had been a long day and I was rushing a preview out before collapsing into bed - sorry 'bout that. Hopefully, those of you foolhardy enough to follow my tips figured it out.

Also, I've had a question about the italicised picks; they are simply if you fancy a bit of in-game interest and can be happily ignored, the primary pick is always the one against the spread.

Thanks, O.

Neither starting QB goes tonight and that seems to swing the game the home team's way. Campbell has a decent arm, but a laborious delivery because he spends too much time making decisions and he'll do it tonight against an aggressive D and behind a poor O line.

As it is, Chicago will try to run the ball to limit his throwing/decision making, but the 49ers are a tough defense to run on and it may be a rough night under centre. Forte isn't really a smashmouth runner and may find the going tough too.

I like Colin Kaepernick and if he were more polished, I'd take him every day over Alex Smith (so much so I've stashed him in a number of keeper leagues!) as it is I think Harbaugh will turn Kaepernick into a fine QB and it may be that tonight we'll see some of that potential: h's certainly more mobile than Campbell.

San Francisco will also run the ball all game, for all the same reasons, but I suspect Kaepernick will take some looks downfield which will keep the Bears' defense on its toes. Gore is a physical runner and Kendall is a nice change up and although the Bears are a difficult team to run on, they did creak last game.

I'll give the points.

Pick: San Francisco Giants -3.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Colin Kaepernick @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Matt Forte @ 2.4

I usually love these situations; the line crashes in on the news that a team's #1 QB is out and the team in question is cracking value. Sure enough, this line has moved 7+ points with Roethlisberger on the sidelines, but the fly in the ointment is Leftwich: he stinks.

Hopefully, the Steelers will resist the temptation to go after the ropey Ravens' secondary and pound the rock with the returning Mendenhall and then lean on their defense to stifle a Baltimore team that has been poor on the road.

I'll still play the situation, but if you must get involved, keep stakes small.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.7

I like Andrew Luck a lot and when you consider the absentees for the New England defense (Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory are out/injured) it may be that this face-off of the present and the future QB superstars may be closer than people think.

New England will put up points because they have the talent to score on anyone (note that the Colts may have lost both starting corners) but with the return of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney for the Colts, I'm going to take the points in what should be a high scoring game.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +9.5 @ 2

Pick: Over 53.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 2.4

Green Bay have injury problems on the OL and still haven't all their offensive weapons fit after the bye week, but if they keep Rodgers upright he'll be able to attack a Lions' secondary that is similarly missing bodies all over the place and playing poorly. Detroit have given up yards on the ground too recently, and if Green Bay can find any sort of running game, they can tame the Lions - yuk it up, kids.

The Pack also have key elements out on D (specifically Clay Matthews) and Tramon Williams should've been having megatron sized nightmares all week. Stafford has struggled this season, but has run into a little form and he has the weapons downfield to attack a Green Bay D that is giving up chunks of yardage through the air: look for talented rookie Titus Young, who is becoming a real threat with teams concentrating on Calvin Johnson. Stafford has Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell to help him out on the ground, so the home team has the offensive wherewithal.

However, I suspect Detroit could be playing from behind on this one and although they have strength on the offensive side, Stafford slinging it against a D that keeps making big plays, despite its limitations, is likely to be too big an ask.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Randall Cobb @  10
Pick: Anytime TD Titus Young @ 2.5

I was looking forward to a football 'amuse-bouche' to lead me into a main course of Test cricket from India - instead, Sky serve up this turd sandwich.

Miami are sliding, but Buffalo might just offer them a chance to arrest the skid, primarily because the Bills can't defend the run; they're banged up and performing poorly as a front seven. Reggie Bush has put numbers up against this D in the past and (along with Daniel Thomas) should do so again tonight. Bush was benched last week for a fumble, so hopefully he'll have something to prove. There's not much pass rush to worry about, so if the ground game dominates sufficiently, Ryan Tannehill can take some shots against a poor, inexperienced secondary.

Buffalo are missing Fred Jackson, and it could be a big miss. C J Spiller will feature and has some juice and although Miami's numbers against the run on the season are excellent, they've given up yards recently. Ryan Fitzpatrick is too unpredictable for my tastes; he is a swashbuckler whose swash often buckles and it can get ugly quickly. The fins haven't a terrifying pass rush, but the Bills' O line does give up sacks, however Miami are beatable deep.

This game depends upon who gets the run going and I'll look for Miami's quick, aggressive defense to assert itself.

Pick: Miami Dolphins @ 2.25

Pick: 1st TD Brian Hartline @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Reggie bush @ 2

It's been one of those weeks and it would be nice if Ben and the boys execute their gameplan tonight without any dramas.

There's no element in this game, save perhaps for the Chiefs' run game, where Kansas doesn't look over-matched. Added to which, Romeo Crennel is floating at the top of the bowl and has handed over the defensive co-ordinator role in desperation. Cassel is a functional quarterback (rather him under centre than Brady Quinn) but his options were limited enough without facing a Steelers' D on national TV that is beginning to form up nicely. Kansas have been outscored 61-6 in the first quarter this season and they will struggle to put points up tonight too.

As long as the home team stick to the usual RBBC/easy, short passing game to move the chains and don't get too greedy, they should see off tonight's opposition at a jog. I hate giving double digits (particularly on MNF) but the Chiefs really are that bad.

Pick: Pittsburgh -12.5 @ 2
Pick: 1st Quarter Spread Pittsburgh -3 @ 1.91 (Vic)

Pick: 1st TD Isaac Redman @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1

A fascinating matchup to close out the night.

Two really tough defenses will test offenses that aren't known for their innovative, devil-may-care approach.

Matt Schaub is an efficient, error free game manager and he'll need to be patient tonight as the Bears are well organised deep and aggressive up front: of particular concern is the right side of the offensive line, where Idonije, McClellin and Melton could cause all sorts of problems. The Texans will need to lean on Arian Foster, but Chicago are tough against the run too and with a talented secondary and a dearth of a deep threat, if Foster doesn't dominate, the Texans could struggle to move the ball.

Frankly, the same is true of the Bears: Matt Forte must get rolling against a stout run D to take the pressure off Cutler, who'll hope his protection has a good day against a ferocious pass rush led by J J Watt. With Cushing missing, Forte may find some room and Cutler will still look for (a doubtless double teamed) Brandon Marshall downfield.

One of these offenses will need to step up and show form that has been lacking so far and I think Chicago just shade it on the basis of 'the team most likely'.

Pick: Chicago Bears -1 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Matt Forte @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Houston Defense @ 5.5