[u][b]Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos Sky Sports, Saturday 9.30pm[/b][/u]
The Ravens have killed me this season, with Flacco alternating between hopeless and highly competent. However, today (even giving up so many points) I'm going to take Denver to finally put an end to my nightmare.
Last week, I suggested that Ray Lewis may prove a liability, and although he made 13 tackles in the game, this quote from the Baltimore Sun may be telling, because today I expect Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to make more of Rice’s shortcomings:
‘According to the guys over at Pro Football Focus, Lewis was the team's lowest graded defender Sunday... Of course, these grades are subjective, but Pro Football Focus is a reliable and respected stats website.’ [i]Baltimore Sun, Jan 7[/i]
As...
In my season preview, Green Bay was one of my picks to win it all (for the record, my post-season picks were: AFC Champions - Patriots. NFC Champions - Packers. Super Bowl - Packers; Texans) and I'm going to roll with the Pack here, although this is a lot of points to give a side with Adrian Peterson in it.
The Vikings aren't exactly a mystery on offense: over the last 10 games of the season, Peterson ran for 1598 yards, Christian Ponder only threw for 1501! Green Bay has surrendered over 400 rushing yards to Minnesota this season. Peterson's heroics last week however, saw him carry the ball a season-high 34 times, and now he plays off a short week. It appears AD is superhuman, but that's a hell of an ask. Also, Peterson hasn't found Green Bay a happy hunting ground; the Packers have...
Green Bay look as though they're hitting stride nicely as the post-season looms and this game will decide whether they get a first round bye. Minnesota need to win to make the post-season, so this should be a cracker.
Rodgers has finally got the offense ticking, but the Vikings' pass rush can bring pressure, so his offensive line needs to give him an opportunity to hit the talent Green Bay have in abundance downfield. Rodgers will have a miraculously rejuvenated Ryan Grant (in tandem with Alex Green) to fall back on in the run game and they'll be critical to keeping the Vikes off-balance.
Adrian Peterson. A player who had his knee rebuilt and promptly tears off a season that not only threatens a 2000yd season, but also Eric Dickerson's out of sight record of 2105. Again, the Packers'...
[b]Week 15 NFL Trixie[/b]
A couple of the live games this week can be added to a bet I like, to make for an interesting little multiple for Christmas:
[b]GB -2.5
NYG +1.5
Pit -2[/b]
[i]£60 Pays approx. £224[/i]
[b]Pack @ Bears[/b]
The Bears are sliding and now meet a team that seems to have the sign over their QB. Jay Cutler is 1-6 against the Packers, going 115-of-216 for 1,383 yards, seven touchdowns and seventeen, count 'em, seventeen interceptions.
Added to this, Chicago are carrying a number of key injuries, particularly on defense, where Brian Urlacher, Tim Jennings, Lance Briggs and Henry Melton are out or injured. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly had the visitor's offense purring this season, but they look like it's coming together with Randall Cobb stepping up,...
Injuries make this matchup compelling.
The Lions are down to the bare boards; there' really only megatron left to throw to (there's a decent enough backfield; look for Leshoure in close) and the Packers are getting mighty thin at receiver and running back (no change there!) On the other side of the ball, Detroit have lost two starting cornerbacks and a safety and Green Bay are still without Clay Matthews - and it's difficult to call who will be missed most.
The Lions are coming off a couple of rough games and that weakness in the secondary is dangerous with a QB like Rodgers staring it down and although he's never quite got the offense ticking like usual, the return of Greg Jennings will help. Crucially, Rodgers' O line has to keep him on his feet long enough to make plays and that...
Since 2007, the Packers are 19-5 against the spread as underdogs: I'm not a great fan of this kind of stat, but in this case it sums up my feelings about this game.
The Giants have looked poor of late and Manning has been out of sync with the rest of his offense. The Packers' secondary is soft, but as an entire stop unit, they operate pretty efficiently. Even missing Clay Matthews they can mount a decent pass rush and the Giants have problems along the offensive line. Bradshaw is banged up: look for Andre Brown to get touches.
The Packers' run game isn't too pretty either, but Rodgers should be able to get after a middling secondary and I expect him and his receivers to put up numbers: look for Randall Cobb.
I'll take the points.
[b]Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 @ 2
[i]
Pick:...
Green Bay have injury problems on the OL and still haven't all their offensive weapons fit after the bye week, but if they keep Rodgers upright he'll be able to attack a Lions' secondary that is similarly missing bodies all over the place and playing poorly. Detroit have given up yards on the ground too recently, and if Green Bay can find any sort of running game, they can tame the Lions - yuk it up, kids.
The Pack also have key elements out on D (specifically Clay Matthews) and Tramon Williams should've been having megatron sized nightmares all week. Stafford has struggled this season, but has run into a little form and he has the weapons downfield to attack a Green Bay D that is giving up chunks of yardage through the air: look for talented rookie Titus Young, who is becoming a real...