orioles

I hope my reader will excuse my brevity, but I've got a house full of family and guests and long write-ups are out!

I have to take the Steelers here; a tough defense, at home, against a team it has beaten ten of the last twelve times they've met. I want the half point, though, with a solid Bengals still in the hunt for the post-season.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ 1.85

Pick: 1st TD A.J. Green @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.1

It's difficult to see Detroit dominating Atlanta sufficiently to get a result here. Megatron is at his freakish best and will severely test a Falcons' secondary that is down some personnel and looks vulnerable, but Stafford will have to have a perfect game and he's been inconsistent lately and prone to throwing picks, or missing his passes. Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell have some punch out of the backfield, but even though the Atlanta run D is workmanlike at best, Detroit may well be playing from behind.

The Falcons can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a victory and with Nick Fairley and Jacob Lacey out and Louis Delmas injured, the Lions are looking thin on defense. Matt Ryan torched the pathetic Giants last week and while I don't expect such a gutless performance from the home team tonight, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez should have big games. Detroit are pretty threadbare on the line with the loss of Fairley, and haven't much of a pass rush (18th in sacks on the year) so Ryan should have room to pass; equally, although it's not much of a run game, Atlanta will at least have that option.

I like the Falcons here; they have the momentum, the form and the incentive. The Lions are looking at draft picks.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 1.95

Pick: 1st TD Calvin Johnson @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD Julio Jones @ 2

Apologies for the Giants' pick: they stunk it up in that special way that only the G-men can!

This should be a fascinating game, but those of you who read this rubbish occasionally will know that often, I lean on Bill Belichik's ability to out-coach the opposition.

This game will depend upon the Pats success stopping the run and forcing the 49ers to pass. Frank Gore excels in the read option offense and stopping him and the scrambling ability of Colin Kaepernick will severely limit the 49ers in a game where they will need to put up points simply because New England are so potent on offense. Belichick will need to show Kaepernick some things he hasn't seen before, as well as making sure his D line shows a little more form against the run than they have recently.

As it is, San Francisco will probably have to air it out rather more than usual and there's no doubt that New England can be beaten deep; the problem is that the 49ers are pretty thin out wide with Manningham out and Vernon Davis finding it difficult to get involved. Michael Crabtree is the 'go to' receiver at the moment and he will doubtless draw Aqib Talib.

Tom Brady and the Pats' offense have been irresistible, but now they run into a defense ranked second against the run and the pass. Stevan Ridley will have to negotiate his way past NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis and it'll be really tough on the ground. The San Francisco secondary is not as strong as their ranking would suggest however, and that could be costly against a passer like Brady.

In Belichick and Brady we trust.

Pick: New England -4 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Brandon Lloyd @ 3

The Steelers opened the week as dogs, but now find themselves marginal favourites - although they're a pick 'em with many books.

The Cowboys are 0-9 ATS at home and that run may continue. Pittsburgh have kept their last seven opponents to 200 yards or fewer passing, but have a badly nicked up secondary and their pass rush will need to be effective to keep Romo from exposing them deep. However, the Dallas O line has been awful and Romo will need to use all his talents at extending plays to keep the chains moving.

A strong run game would help, but the Cowboys haven't got the ground game going all year, for a number of reasons, and the Steelers are a fine run stopping unit, ranking 4th in the NFL. Dez Bryant's injury is a blow for Dallas - as the receiver who has the most rapport with Romo he needs to produce today, broken index finger and all.

Ben Roethlisberger looked pretty gimpy last week, but he can tough it out in the pocket and has all his receivers fit against a pass defense that has stumbled recently. Once again, the issue for the quarterback will be his offensive line which was horrible against San Diego and Ben has lost LG Willie Colon; never good with DeMarcus Ware about. That said, the Pittsburgh receivers put the ball on the floor too often last week and if they can only hold on to the rock, they should put up some yards.

Injuries to Jay Ratliff, Sean Lee and Bruce Carter have further weakened the home team's 15th ranked run defense, and it will be interesting to see how Jonathan Dwyer fares: he's a talented back, but Pittsburgh have problems along the interior of the line. That said, Dallas have given up a lot of yards on the ground recently.

Pittsburgh look more complete to me on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Dez Bryant @ 10
Pick: Anytime TD Heath Miller @ 2.38

Week 15 NFL Trixie

A couple of the live games this week can be added to a bet I like, to make for an interesting little multiple for Christmas:

GB -2.5
NYG +1.5
Pit -2

£60 Pays approx. £224

Pack @ Bears

The Bears are sliding and now meet a team that seems to have the sign over their QB. Jay Cutler is 1-6 against the Packers, going 115-of-216 for 1,383 yards, seven touchdowns and seventeen, count 'em, seventeen interceptions.

Added to this, Chicago are carrying a number of key injuries, particularly on defense, where Brian Urlacher, Tim Jennings, Lance Briggs and Henry Melton are out or injured. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly had the visitor's offense purring this season, but they look like it's coming together with Randall Cobb stepping up, Jennings coming back and the sudden arrival of a running game. Green Bay's O line has been poor, but the Bears' injuries will help, and Rodgers should see the matchups he wants downfield.

Chicago had a terrible time against the Packers' defense in week 2; Cutler went 11-of-27 for 126 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions, while getting sacked seven times. Unfortunately, Cutler is injured now and it looks as though Clay Matthews is back. It's likely therefore, that Cutler will be under pressure for much of the game, limiting the pass, which is a shame because Brandon Marshall is on fire. So, Matt Forte must give Cutler a run game to slow down the Green Bay D. The Pack have given up yards in their last three games, but they have the wherewithal to minimise the damage.

This looks ominous for the Bears, and as long as Forte doesn't have a career day, I like Green Bay to cover less than a field goal.

Pick: Green Bay -2.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Alex Green @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Green Bay DST @ 4.5; Matt Forte @ 2 (Corals)

Nick Foles has shown some talent since starting and had a monster game last week, but he may find that passing for yards tonight will be a little trickier. The primary reason will be the Bengals' pass rush, Cincinnati lead the NFL in sacks. Geno Atkins look like the best defensive tackle in football and will give the Eagles' O line a tough time with his speed; deeper, the Bengals are well organised.

Bryce Brown will be the lead back again, and should see more of the ball tonight to take the pressure off Foles, but the Cincinnati front seven is a decent unit against the run. The upshot is that the Eagles may struggle to move the chains consistently.

The Bengals will come up against a Philadelphia defense that showed better last week after a coaching change and jettisoning the wide-nine. The Cincinnati O line is solid and the Eagles aren't great pass rushers; the Eagles also have problem in the secondary where Nnamdi Asomugha faces what may be a long night. The Benglas also match up nicely in the slot, where Hawkins and Gresham should find room to operate.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been something of a revelation and Cincinnati should feed him the ball tonight because the Eagles can give up yards on the ground and should do tonight against a capable runner behind a decent O line.

I like the Bengals' balance on both sides of the ball and, although I'm not a great fan of situational gambling, Cincinnati need to win to keep their season alive. I'll give the points.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -4 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jermaine Gresham @ 12
Pick: Anytime TD Andrew Hawkins @ 2.62

The New England defense keep generating turnovers as teams struggle to keep pace with their offense, which is its usual irresistible self: opponent's risk-taking has allowed the Pats to post a +17 turnover ratio and of course, fuel Tom Brady. The Texans bring an interesting gameplan though; they are a run first offense that sets up Schaub off play action - ball security is at a premium and they've only fumbled twice all season.

The key then, is for Houston to start well and test the New England defense. If Arian Foster gets going, it could be an interesting evening, as the home team's limited pass rush can expose a secondary that is still poor, despite the addition of Aqib Talib; Andre Johnson could put up numbers. The Pats have a decent enough run defense, but Foster is a significant challenge.

All that said, Tom Brady is going to be faced with a Texans' secondary that is on its knees, having been decimated by injury. New England only have to control the formidable J.J. Watt (a situation complicated by injuries to Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly) and Brady should be able to dissect what remains of the Houston pass defense. It's worth bearing in mind that twenty of the twenty-four TDs given up by Houston have been through the air, which is right in Brady's wheelhouse. New England are quietly putting together a nice run game too and although they could find themselves dropping into pass protection, look for Stevan Ridley close in.

I'm looking forward to this game, and although the Texans aren't getting the respect they deserve, Brady should be too much at home tonight. I give less than a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9; Stevan Ridley @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.1; Andre Johnson @ 2.1

Injuries make this matchup compelling.

The Lions are down to the bare boards; there' really only megatron left to throw to (there's a decent enough backfield; look for Leshoure in close) and the Packers are getting mighty thin at receiver and running back (no change there!) On the other side of the ball, Detroit have lost two starting cornerbacks and a safety and Green Bay are still without Clay Matthews - and it's difficult to call who will be missed most.

The Lions are coming off a couple of rough games and that weakness in the secondary is dangerous with a QB like Rodgers staring it down and although he's never quite got the offense ticking like usual, the return of Greg Jennings will help. Crucially, Rodgers' O line has to keep him on his feet long enough to make plays and that could be a challenge with Cliff Avril, Nick Fairley, and Ndamukong Suh rampaging along the line.

It's megatron takes on the Pack - it may be a close shave, but I'll give the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ 2

Pick: 1st TD Jermichael Finley @ 15
Pick: Anytime TD Mikel Leshoure @ 2; Greg Jennings @ 2.4

Can the Giants stop Brees often enough?

Take the points.

Pick: New Orleans Saints +4.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Jimmy Graham @ 9
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston @ 2

This could be a close game, but the difficulty is knowing which Joe Flacco/Ravens' offense will turn up. Baltimore are difficult to cap because it sometimes look as though they haven't really decided what the offense should look like: Ray Rice didn't carry the ball at all in the 4th quarter last week!

Presumably though, Baltimore are going to attack the shaky Washington secondary, but the home team have shown some improvement of late and have toughened up in the red zone, ranking eighth in the last three weeks. Flacco also seems less comfortable on the road, so the offense could struggle for rhythm, even against the Redskins. The Ravens have the weapons deep, and Washington are a little nicked up; it's about time Flacco showed he is made of the right stuff.

Washington are rolling on offense. RGIII is playing well and the return of Pierre Garcon has given him the chance to use his arm. The Redskins' run game is also thriving, with Alfred Morris showing real talent and he's obviously happy in the Shanny run scheme. Terrell Suggs is out and Dannell Ellerbe is banged up for the Ravens, so Washington should be able to keep the chains moving.

Baltimore's road form and Washington's momentum mean I'll give the points.

Pick: Washington Redskins -2 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD RGIII @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Torrey Smith @ 2.2; Pierre Garcon @ 2.4