best value team to win the superbowl!

Here's my thoughts on each of the teams remaining:

New England Patriots

I don't think anyone can argue with the Pats being favourites for the Superbowl. The only way they can be deprived of the #1 seeding in the AFC is through losing their last two games and the Jets winning their last two. However, as was seen in the Green Bay game the Patriots can be defeated. Their defence is young and could be seen to be suspect against a good offensive team whilst I keep waiting for their offensive blue plan to be held in check once, and for the other teams to copy that. Given the unpredictability of the season so far, I would struggle to back them at their current odds.

My price: 4.

Atlanta Falcons

For as long as I can recall, I have advocated backing the Falcons. However, it just seems that despite their impressive accomplishments, the market just doesn't rate them. I mean, they were 8.2 two weeks ago and since then have won two games whilst their challenges to the #1 seed have all but evaporated. The reward? A 0.4 swing which is hilarious. Even if the Falcons aren't that good a team, they have shown a consistency and tenacity that others haven't. Matt Ryan has only lost 1 home game in his NFL career and so long as they can win one of their last two games - including one against the worst team in the NFL then the playoffs will go through Atlanta and will you really want to bet against them then? Although, given the lack of respect shown so far, you have to figure that the Falcons would be massive outsiders in the Superbowl itself which maybe explains the price hold.

My price: 6.6

Philadelphia Eagles

It's hard to think of a more publicised NFL story in recent times than the re-emergence of Michael Vick and whilst it sure sounds nice on paper, his play has become massively overrated. Yes, Vick has a running style that can create havoc and yes, he has improved significantly since his Atlanta days. However, he is still Michael Vick and has benefited from a lot of luck. Respected statistician K.C. Joyner reviews QB play and assigns a Bad Decision percentage to QB plays. A 3% rate is considered bad and you can often see known gunslingers like Brett Favre and Jay Cutler around this. On ESPN chats, he considers Vick's percentage to be an abominable 5%. You have to think that will catch up with him sooner rather than later and the Giants have shown that Vick can be held in check. (Subject to losing the plot in the 4th Quarter.) Add in a suspiciously overrated Defence, and the Eagles' current price would appear low even if they were guaranteed the #2 seed. The fact that they will need to win more games than Chicago to make the #2 seed makes them look like a poor price.

My price: 10

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are a hard team to read for mine. They have a poor O-line but a QB who is best placed to compensate for that whilst they have an excellent defensive system although without Troy Polamalu, their secondary can be exposed. Since Ben Roethlisberger returned, the Steelers only victory over an opponent with a winning record was against Baltimore and even that was only secured via a late strip sack. They are likely to get the #2 seed although this isn't guaranteed. If they do however, their price will fall so it's difficult to take a position for now.

My price: 10

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have overcome much this year to avoid any Superbowl hangover and there is no doubting their offensive credentials. However, their defence is too much all or nothing and that could easily be the downfall of them in the playoffs. Certainly, when a struggling Baltimore can score 30 on you then alarms bell should be rung. The Saints should be re-energised by the fact that the #5 seed would see them play a NFC west team in Week 1 of the playoffs, possibly even better than a bye although can they then win twice on the road to get to the playoffs? The strangest thing about the price for me however is that the Saints were at 13.5 for most of last week. Despite losing and knocking them all but out of the race for the #1 seed, their price has hardly changed. Go figure?

My price: 18

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens, for mine, are a very good football team who aren't getting the respect they deserve. At least they are on paper. On offense, they have significantly more weapons than in recent years but they have struggled somewhat with Cam Cameron's playcalling whilst on defence, their holes in the secondary should not mask the fact that their front seven is as good as any in football. As they still have some hope of the '2 seed, they look to be value but can they win three games on the road to get to the playoffs? You'd think not - but this is a team built for outdoor January football and Joe Flacco has won twice on the road in the playoffs before.

My price: 15

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are another side I have long advocated laying. From a few weeks back when they were at 8 prior to the Oakland debacle to prior to the start of the 1 PM games on Sunday when they were at 12. As the markets show, the Chargers are not even favourites to make the playoffs. Their Wild Card hopes are all but gone and they are outsiders in the division. Of course, that means that if they were to make the playoffs their odds would collapse but can the Chargers really win in both Pittsburgh and New England? Whilst their passing attack is impressive, their running game is little more than average and Phillip Rivers' mediocre arm strength will be heavily challenged in wintry conditions and although their defence has been surprisingly good this year will that translate to crunch time?

My price: 21

New York Jets

With a defeat over the Steelers last week, it is hard not to imagine the Jets in the playoffs. Therefore, their current price makes them look an appealing proposition. Although they were blown out by New England a few weeks back that should not mask the Jets' capabilities as a smash mouth January team who are capable of repeating last year's playoff escapades. Rex Ryan's motivational and creativity should be enough to inspire the Defence and then it's down to the offense to do just enough.

My price: 25

Indianapolis Colts

Two words. Peyton Manning. Yes, his arm strength has clearly deteriorated this year and yes he is missing key weapons, but there is no QB in the game better placed to adapt to a game's situation. I don't think you can ever bet against Manning and the Colts and as 2006 showed, they are often at their best with their backs against the walls. Their performance against Jacksonville last week also confirmed this. Although their playoff spot is not sown up, the Colts are strong favourites to get into the playoffs and they are a team who could win at Pittsburgh and New England.

My price: 20

New York Giants and Green Bay Packers

You may wonder why I have grouped these teams together. Well, the chance of both making the playoffs is nigh on impossible. The only way it can happen is if Green Bay defeat New York, both win in Week 17, Tampa goes undefeated and New Orleans loses both games. So, in practice, you are looking at two teams competing for one spot. And at a combined 6% of the book? Well, unless one can grab the #5 seed which would be highly unlikely - there is no way these should be so low. As for the teams themselves, the Packers' strong passing game will be hindered in the playoffs by a below average running game and a banged up although resilient defence. However, the Giants should be made for playoff football with a strong running game, good passing game and exceptional defensive line. Certainly, if they were able to squeeze in to the playoffs, they would be a very dangerous outfit.

My prices: 44 and 48.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have secured a #3 seeding and have a good chance of the #2 seeding. Two weeks ago, they could be laid at 17.5. Now, they are at 24. Go figure. The Bears are a puzzling team who, above all else, have won ten games this year which is a mark worthy of higher respect than currently being granted. At Quarterback, Jay Cutler is capable of anything - both good and bad whilst the running game has come on in recent weeks. On defence, their front is capable of masking deficiencies in the secondary. Their current price is fair if they were the #3 seed. However, if they secured the #2 seed they should be much much lower and approaching single figures.

My price: 17.5.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been exceptional in comparison to their paper talent level this year. However, the past two weeks have shown that their greatest asset has been Charlie Weis who like Josh McDaniels has been able to convert Matt Cassel from an average back-up to a solid starter. It is the running game which drives the Chiefs but Cassel who turns the engine on. A home playoff game is no less than they deserve. (They are the argument for not reversing divisional playoff seedings) Although, are the Chiefs really capable of winning the Superbowl given an overachieving defence which has still been no more than average? The fact is, they have a chance so long as they can get into the playoffs - a position they are marginal favourites to do so from.

My price: 50

San Francisco 49ers, St Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks

As I've said before, the 49ers price is by far the most hilarious thing I have seen on Betfair since someone is consistently holding the price down below bookmakers' prices! The 49ers are a poor team. They have a mediocre, underperforming offense with Frank Gore out and their defence has been poor. At 130, I'd even refuse a free bet on them. The Rams' price has taken a hammering this week given that otherwise impressive rookie QB Sam Bradford has hit a wall recently, but the Rams shouldn't be counted out. They are favourites to defeat the 49ers at home this week which would then make them play Seattle in a winner takes a home playoff match and whilst Bradford has been disappointing, an improving young D and Steven Jackson could keep the Rams in the hunt. As for the Seahawks, they have experience in being here before and have a strong home advantage which makes their current price very appealing. However, they have a mediocre defence and a QB who looks out of form.

My prices: 500, 270 and 260.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are an overachieving young team with lots of good parts in place. However, they remain a work in progress in need of talent upgrades at key positions. Even in the unlikely event they make the playoffs, they should not be a strong contender.

My price: 250

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are still in the race on the back of very impressive divisional performances. However, when they are 30 to win the division, you can see why their current price to win the Superbowl holds no value. However, if the Raiders could get good and consistent QB play and improve their linebackers, they could develop into a solid team.

My price: 750.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have had an excellent season but a disappointing loss to Detroit looks to have cost them significantly. However, they have the pieces in place on offense and with a bit of fine tuning and improvement to roster strength, the Bucs could develop into a challenger.

My price: 600.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans need to win out and the Colts and Jags to lose out to make the playoffs. In itself, that is almost 1000 shot. The Titans are a team in crisis with a loved up owner ready to sacrifice the longest tenured NFL coach (and perhaps its most respected) for an immature frat boy who has neither the leadership or the dedication to maximise his considerable talents in the NFL.

My price: 1000.

So after all that, what does everyone else think?

good right up moaner, good read

However, he is still Michael Vick and has benefited from a lot of luck. Respected statistician K.C. Joyner reviews QB play and assigns a Bad Decision percentage to QB plays.

So are you basing your write up on Vick as having benefited from luck on what you have seen or on K.C. Joyner?  Because to say he has benefited from luck is absurd in my opinion, I think he has been class and isn't getting the credit the way a peyton Manning or Tom brady gets.  The amount of points that shocking eagles defence gives up and for them to be still winning the games they are winning is down to the class and composure Vick has shown, especially when he has had to do it, rather than any thing to do with luck

I am not claiming he is any sort of decent short passer qb.  He does what he is good at and what the eagles are good at but its not down to luck

Real moaner every QB makes ill advised throws...you make poor points, look at his QB rating,you think he only makes long passes to get that rating ..outside the top 10 as a passer...how many can throw with the same accuracy and power on the run? he has improved off the scale as a passer....MUG Comments by yourself.

I'm sorry I have a different opinion to you, I just believe that whilst Vick is a hugely exciting talent who can throw as good a long ball as anyone in the league he does have substantial limitations.

Look how the Giants played him for instance. If you can Spy him from someone in the front 7, and find a way of taking away the deep ball, he becomes an ordinary player.

Now - very few teams can do that but it can be done.

P.S. - As a passer and a passer alone - all respected advanced stats have Vick towards the middle of the league. Now, his other skills elevate him and he has a coach who takes advantages of his strengths. I'm not saying he's a poor QB, I'm saying he's a good QB - just undeserving of the recent praise which has been nothing but hyperbole.

Brady slightly qualified it with the "when he throws the ball like he did last night" part and that's the thing you might be sweating about come the intensity of the p/offs if you've backed them. Think he's fantastic myself, one of the most exciting sportsmen competing on any field today.

Think the Giants are very big at the moment if the OP wants a punt, I certainly wouldn't be comfortable laying them at 32.

I support the Steelers but while I think they could well go a long way in the playoffs, it appears to me (thru the officials decisions) that the NFL do not want them to win anything this year

PROPHET..i think any of the main 5 teams from the NFC are well capable of winning in atlanta

I think the 13/1 about the Ravens is great value.
Could yet still nick the North from the Steelers who face a tough road trip to the Browns in week 17 (who the Ravens visit this week) and if Ravens win out and Steelers slip up the Ravens will take the #2 seed, they'd be about half those odds if they win the North

I do have confidence in flacco..a trip to kansas or indy wouldnt be a problem for me. i dont have so much confidence in who is calling some of the offensive plays,terrible in houston and the calls they were making v pittsburgh when they were only going to lose by a turnover,well,that was shocking from the coaches.

My small bets are with the Ravens, but I think they've got it into their heads that the fourth quarter is panic time - couldn't believe what I was watching in the Houston game: went from bleary-eyed sleep to edge of my seat frustration.  The Saints win may have steadied the ship but it was at home and it looks like the Ravens journey to any Superbowl this year will be on the road.

Agree regarding baltimore...i was going through who they have to play to get to the superbowl...as good as the colts are at home i think the ravens will turn them over but then they have to go to pitts then new england most likely....yes the packers have a hard run to the superbowl but its becoming obvious they are going to be hard to stop,...despite the loss in new england they are on a roll mentally imo,they can score points for fun...packers prie v the bears suggests they are going to get a walkover,they will as saints or atlanta will win the 6pm game hence chicago will be 2seed....i think you mentioned the other day atlanta are being overlooked...you havent mentioned them here?changed yer mind since the saints defeat? i think they will still be hard to beat at home..think they just had an off night.

Falcons are still an incredible betting value price - but after being at the same price for over a month, that's just the way the market views them. Atlanta were 7.6 when they were 14-10. Drifting out to 9 based upon one drive inconsequential to their seedings is way OTT.

But Green Bay's price is shocking. As much in form as they may be, at Philly surely they won't be lower than 2.5, at Atlanta they may be 2.3 - 2.5, at Chicago evens and if New Orleans 2.3 - 2.5. Then in the Superbowl, against the Pats surely they'd be 2.7 - 3 whilst they would probably be around evens against anyone else.

Same with Chicago - as much as they are unlikely to win this, they have played very well down the stretch minus one game against New England. Their form and home advantage deserves respect which they aren't getting.

FWIW, I'd price it

New England 3.5, Atlanta 6.4, Pittsburgh 9.6, Philly 15, New Orleans 15, Baltimore 17.5, Chicago 12.5, Green Bay 25, Indy 17.5, New York 30, Kansas 36, Giants 100, Rams 200, Seahawks 200, Jaguars 550, Bucs 600.

Sorry - I'm already maxed out with a lay at 17!

I think the saints, packers, colts and ravens are all good value and one or even 2 of those teams have the quality and pedigree to go deep into the playoffs.
I have laid the pats big as they will be tested to the max and from what I have seen this season I think they will be found out against a good D and a QB that can charge down the field.

D13phe i was thinking the same but have just accepted they will be so hard to beat..foxboro is a fortress,they hardly turn the ball over,dont make mistakes.they have come up against all the top teams and D in the league and have basically taken them apart...bradys O line and blocking gives him so much time.

Bradys line is great, by he also is the by far best blitz reader in the game...troy played the game vs Pats

It's hard to win a play off game in the Manning dome, after the loss to Cowboys they realised they had to run more, and done it effective.
Colts can score loads of points against anyone and is with Ravens imo the biggest threat against pats.
we all said Oakland and Jags would run over Colts but Colts D hold both teams under 80yds (?) and the O run for over 150yds in both games...