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odwyer1980
18 Jun 07 21:02
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Date Joined: 11 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 404 | Blogger: odwyer1980's blog
I have a monumental amount on dosh on Boston tonight 370 at 4/6 At Ladbrokes because I got lucky with a 50 5 selection accumulator which got me almost 400.

This is a p!ssed off bet. Basically, I've come to the conclusion you will only win big money with Baseball if you do big bets. Use the Del boy approach.

He who dares wins

If it wins then I will have 610 and I can go from there.

I can see a big win from this sport, but only if I am daring and do a 350-500 accumulator.

I will soon either win 5,000 + from this sport soon or I will not.

Most I've ever won from this game is about 700 from a 4 game acca. Even then I had to sweat it out after at 5.45am after Armando Benitez came on the bottom of the 9th with a 4 run lead and almost threw the game and 900 of my money away.

Since then I have used bwin and got to 1,160 and lost it all in the space of a month after a series of bad baseball luck - mostly due that the "sweep" weekend that happened about a month back where 700 went in quick time.

My goal is to have a big baseball win. It has potential, but you need luck. I want a big win.

Opinions on this sport and it's potential for a big win?

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Replies: 294
By:
fawwon
When: 18 Jun 07 21:08
You sound like a shrewd operator.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:10
Personally it is the most profitable sport for me by far, but I would guess that our betting strategies are rather different.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 21:16
In a nutshell - I'm not rich either. I have 5,500 in my personal bank which I made last year from a business venture. I am not prepared to lose that or even dip into it.

I have no job at this time and I'm 27 years old. Yes, I'm on the Andy Cole.

I bet on MLB for a reason - to win big. However, I also find it BIG fun to bet on. There's nothing like settling down with a 100+ bet on a game, with MLB.TV playing the game live. It's good fun when you see the team you've bet on take the lead with a base hit. It's an addictive high, one of which I dont get when I bet on the football 3pm games or any other sport.

Now even though I find it fun, I want some result from this apart from some temporary high otherwise it is a waste of time and money. I can see a big win. I've seen the potential, even though it is a 50/50 game at times.

Like I said, you just need some luck and you could really strike it big from just a 4 game accumulator.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:27
I don't know if you're saying ridiculous things to try and provoke a response, or whether you're genuine. I'll assume you're genuine as I've no reason to believe otherwise.

Firstly, you must get the best odds. The margins and perceived edge you have in baseball betting are small. You've backed Boston @ 4/6 you say. This is at least 10% below the best price available elsewhere. It is below the fair price, and if I was a bookmaker I'd be laying 4/6 all day long for as much money as people wanted to put on it. You must get the best price at all times or else you've no hope.

Secondly, you're talking about four team accumulators to try and win a lot of money quickly. This is the way to the poor house. As you said yourself, a lot of baseball is 50/50 (the worst team can hammer the best team on any given night) so why would you want to be taking big accumulators on it? Bookmakers have a profit margin of anywhere from about 5% up to about 20%. Let's say you place a four team accumulator at a bookmaker who operates a 110% book. That is a 10% margin on each selection. This margin increases exponentially for each extra selection. For four selections at the bookmaker like this, the margin for them is over 45% . They'll happily take your money all day long.

Just like most things in life, unless you're extremely lucky, there is no get rich quick scheme. Steady, gradual profit is the best way to do it. With baseball, any significant bets you place should be singles.
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 18 Jun 07 21:32
Ironically, baseball is the least popular sport (in terms of money wagered) in the US of all the major sports there but it attracts the more professional bettors.
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 21:38
not being cheeky tie .but where did you find odds of 10% bigger
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:40
Pinn@cle.

4/6 = 1.666

Odds there currently 1.735, which is approximately 10.25% higher than 4/6 .
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 21:44
I don't know if you're saying ridiculous things to try and provoke a response, or whether you're genuine. I'll assume you're genuine as I've no reason to believe otherwise.

Firstly, you must get the best odds. The margins and perceived edge you have in baseball betting are small. You've backed Boston @ 4/6 you say. This is at least 10% below the best price available elsewhere. It is below the fair price, and if I was a bookmaker I'd be laying 4/6 all day long for as much money as people wanted to put on it. You must get the best price at all times or else you've no hope.

Secondly, you're talking about four team accumulators to try and win a lot of money quickly. This is the way to the poor house. As you said yourself, a lot of baseball is 50/50 (the worst team can hammer the best team on any given night) so why would you want to be taking big accumulators on it? Bookmakers have a profit margin of anywhere from about 5% up to about 20%. Let's say you place a four team accumulator at a bookmaker who operates a 110% book. That is a 10% margin on each selection. This margin increases exponentially for each extra selection. For four selections at the bookmaker like this, the margin for them is over 45% . They'll happily take your money all day long.

Just like most things in life, unless you're extremely lucky, there is no get rich quick scheme. Steady, gradual profit is the best way to do it. With baseball, any significant bets you place should be singles.


The Reason I took the 4/6 is because that was the only Bookie (ladbr) where I could use that card due to various different reasons, so in this instance I had no other option.

I tried to use the gradual profit method from 2002 to 2006, and it got me no where. I'd use the 1 MLB pick a day and get off to a winning start, but then lose it when a major favourite pitcher pitches badly - then there goes my money.

So Ive tried the most common sense approach anyone could follow. I pretty much know who to touch and who not to touch.

You can mess around with 100 single bets on the Yankees at 4/9 but thats not going to win you big money. The money will probably go the next day when youve bet 100 on Tim Hudson of the Braves, who then goes on to lose the game, which now leaves you in the red.

That's why I believe an accumulator is the ONLY way you are going to win at Baseball. That's what my experience tells me.
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 21:45
i was just counting it different.1000 at 4/6 gets you $1666.66 and i was addind 10% to that and came up with a figure of $1832 which i thought you could get 1.83.so it would be a 5/6 shot
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 21:47
but you are right .just missunderstood you did not mean 10% net
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 21:50
but surely 10% of 1.66 would be 1.82.would it not devide 1.66 by 10 gives you .166 add that to 1.66 and you get 1.82666666666
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:58
4/6 = 0.6666

0.6666 x 1.10 = 0.735
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:59
Approximately anyway.

If you think betting accumulators is the only way to profit on baseball, I suggest you re-read my above post. If you still think the same thing after that, I would give up betting and save your money.
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 22:00
not arguing but with bookmaker it is 1.66 not .66 if that was the case you would only get 66 back for every hundred and not your stake
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:06
Your argument is flawed because you're adding 10% to the return not the raw odds. The odds are 4/6. You increase the odds by 10% and it's about 1.735.

You stake 1000 @ 4/6 = profit of 666.67
You stake 1000 @ 1.735 = profit of 735

10.25% more than 666.67 is 735. You're making 10.25% more profit because the odds are 10.25% higher.

The returns (1666.67 and 1735) are irrelevant. Don't know how much more simple it could be?
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:08
Approximately anyway.

If you think betting accumulators is the only way to profit on baseball, I suggest you re-read my above post. If you still think the same thing after that, I would give up betting and save your money.

Out of interest - what approach do you use. You bet on singles right?

1) How much do you bet? (What's your average stake)

2) How often do you bet on MLB?
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:09
Approximately anyway.

If you think betting accumulators is the only way to profit on baseball, I suggest you re-read my above post. If you still think the same thing after that, I would give up betting and save your money.


Out of interest - what approach do you use. You bet on singles right?

1) How much do you bet? (What's your average stake)

2) How often do you bet on MLB?
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:11
1) Talking money isn't really seen as a good thing on betting forums. Let's just say significantly more than you mentioned you'd bet above.

2) Pretty much every day during the season, bar a couple of days I take off for a break here and there.
By:
smidge01
When: 18 Jun 07 22:16
tie.that was a bit harsh.how simple can it be .was not a very nice thing to say.for your opinion i applaude you.for that attitude you have just went down in my estimation
By:
Fenway
When: 18 Jun 07 22:16
The best way to win at betting is to have the ability to spot value. Always bet an even money shot if you are offered 11/10, never if you are offered 10/11.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:18
So you're talking into the thousands right?

You're basically betting thousands on single MLB matches?

Im just trying to understand your situation before coming to a conclusion on your reasoning.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:19
1) Talking money isn't really seen as a good thing on betting forums. Let's just say significantly more than you mentioned you'd bet above.

2) Pretty much every day during the season, bar a couple of days I take off for a break here and there.


So you're talking into the thousands right?

You're basically betting thousands on single MLB matches?

Im just trying to understand your situation before coming to a conclusion on your reasoning.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:20
Yes that's the key to it Fenway. Some people don't want to understand this fact though.

Smidge, you were arguing against simple and obvious facts. I honestly do not know how much more simple it could be? I hope you get it now at least ;)
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:22
Whether I'm betting thousands or 1.50 a time, does it really matter? The logic and reasoning is the same regardless. The person betting low stakes can make good profits using the same methods as the guy betting much, much more. There is a right and a wrong way to do it, regardlless of whether there are a few extra zeros on the end of the stake.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:26
The best way to win at betting is to have the ability to spot value. Always bet an even money shot if you are offered 11/10, never if you are offered 10/11.

I look at who's playing who and the reality of them beating their opponents before I look at the odds.

I'd never pick a team just because they have "good odds" or they are "good value". Last night the Mets were good value at 2/1, but there was no way Wang and the Yankees was going to lose that last night, even though they were 4/9 to win.
By:
EnglishDbacksJagsFan
When: 18 Jun 07 22:28
"Last night the Mets were good value at 2/1, but there was no way Wang and the Yankees was going to lose that last night, even though they were 4/9 to win."

Surely, they come hand in hand? If you say there was no way the yankees were gonna lose that game, then the Mets werent value at 2/1 IMO.
By:
Fenway
When: 18 Jun 07 22:30
I don't agree with that at all. There is always a chance of each team winning, being able to spot the reality of that chance and comparing it with the odds being offered is the only way to succeed.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:35
Oh dear, you never bet when there is a good value bet? I really would consider giving up now if that is the case.

Betting is a very simple game. You assign a probability of an outcome occuring, and then if the odds imply that the probability is less, this is a good bet.

In simple terms, if you think the Mets were good value @ 2/1, you're saying that you thought they had more than a 33.33% chance of winning the game - the odds imply a 33.33% chance of winning. If this was the case you should have bet on it. You're appearing to say that even if something is good value (over-priced, odds too high in your opinion) you won't bet on it if it's less than 50% likely to happen?

To be honest, you just seem like a favourite-backer who just wants to win regardless of price. This is the wrong strategy. Backing favourites all the time in MLB (particularly way under the fair price as you have tonight) will lead to failure.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:40
tai671

Even though you're not giving away much, I think your reasoning is unrealistic - and you can hit me with what numbers you like.

I'll say it again - There is NO way you can make any profit from Baseball unless you go for it.

He who dares wins etc.

I'm too experienced in Baseball betting to be told otherwise.

A 250 stake on an accumulator can net you potentially 2,500 if you're lucky.

The other day, I got lucky and won 391 from 50 on 4 MLB teams winning. That was my last chance saloon bet (....for a few weeks).

Imagine if you're daring and you had 200-300 on that winning accumulator?

I have tried the conservative singles method. It does not work, unless you are betting thousands of pounds to make it worth it.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:48
To be honest, you just seem like a favourite-backer who just wants to win regardless of price. This is the wrong strategy. Backing favourites all the time in MLB (particularly way under the fair price as you have tonight) will lead to failure.

I look at who's playing who and the reality of them beating their opponents before I look at the odds.

[i]Factors I bear in mind when I make bets.


1) Who's pitching/pitchers form
2) The previous 2 games results if this was the 3rd/rubber game in the series.
3) Form

I'd never pick a team just because they have "good odds" or are "good value".[/i]
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:50
OK let's make this very, very simple.

Lets just say you bet with a standard UK bookmaker. Let's just say for arguments sake, you put 100 on a four-team accumulator with all four teams being priced at Evens (2.00).

Most UK bookmakers will go Evens one side and 8/11 (1.73) the other. This is about a 108% book - the bookmaker's profit margin is 8%. It is extremely likely that higher odds are on offer elsewhere about each of the four selections (just like there are for Boston tonight).

Now if the profit margin for one selection is 8%, for four selections it is 1.08^4 (1.08 x 1.08 x 1.08 x 1.08) = about 36%.

Therefore your 100 four-team accumulator will win you 700 (profit) if it wins. However, the approximate fair price is 36% higher, so you should actually be winning closer to 950. Why do you think bookmakers try to encourage you to place larger and larger accumulators? Because their edge over you gets larger and larger for every team/selection you add. This is particularly true if you aren't bothered about getting value on each selection (absolute madness as anyone who makes a profit from betting will tell you) and just want to "go for it" and get rich quick.

We're trying to help you here, but if you just want to go ahead and lose while ignoring all of the logical advice coming your way, then that is up to you.
By:
Fenway
When: 18 Jun 07 22:51
Then, sad to say, you may understand baseball, but you have no understanding of betting on baseball. You have to align baseball and arithmetical wisdom to succeed.

I am OK with the numbers, so my baseball knowledge must be lacking.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:52
"Last night the Mets were good value at 2/1, but there was no way Wang and the Yankees was going to lose that last night, even though they were 4/9 to win."

Surely, they come hand in hand? If you say there was no way the yankees were gonna lose that game, then the Mets werent value at 2/1 IMO


I know - what I meant was some would say that the Mets where value at 2/1.

Even though they weren't really value for me because I was certain the Yankees where going to win this one.
By:
Fenway
When: 18 Jun 07 22:53
You must be fishing.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:54
lol Fenway. It just seems too ridiculous to be genuine doesn't it?
By:
McNabb
When: 18 Jun 07 22:55
I have lost loads of money backing accumulators over the past few years but i continue to do it as i find them fun.

This year however i have started to do single bets and have actually shown a profit on baseball.

My method is simple : I look at the teams, the pitchers and the hitting stats then come to a conclusion as to who i think will win. (obvious i know!) Then i will look at the odds and if they are too low, then i leave it.

I guess im with Fenway and Tai on this one then. But i must add that i totally suck at gambling by the way.

I also agree that stakes are totally irrelevant. A mate of mine who posts on these forums started with 2 and is up to about 200 in the same account betting 2 max over a couple of years. He just looks for value. Stakes are totally irrelevant.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 22:59
Sometimes you need to learn the hard way I suppose McNabb.

I've reached the point where I bet for a living, run a couple of gambling websites and do very well out of it all. I have made massive mistakes and suffered harsh losses along the way, but you learn from that and do things better thereafter. You have to be open-minded and be willing to take advice from people who may know better though. Sometimes losing money is the only way to learn though.

Anyway, I've had too much time of my hands tonight, not typing loads more stuff out! Tried to help, but I don't think it's done much good :D
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 22:59
We're trying to help you here, but if you just want to go ahead and lose while ignoring all of the logical advice coming your way, then that is up to you.

I understand what you're saying but I personally don't need your help because I don't agree your reasoning or your method on winning.

:-)
By:
McNabb
When: 18 Jun 07 23:02
I am OK with the numbers, so my baseball knowledge must be lacking.

lol, i just read this. nice one fen, it made me chuckle!
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