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Baseball betting potential - win big or not at all.

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Replies: 294
By:
Fenway
When: 18 Jun 07 21:03
Its true McNabb lol, I have been so bad this year I have given up betting on baseball. Had a couple of good golf wins and made a bit on the dogs, but baseball, I have been as poor as my fantasy teams.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:05
OK then, tell me what you don't agree with? I think I've explained everything in a straightforward way. It is blatantly obvious to anyone with any betting knowledge that betting on large accumulators at odds below the fair price is madness.

Anyone can do this and you may get lucky with one or two winning, but long-term you will lose. The only way that you will not lose is if your baseball knowledge is better than anyone else in the world. Even then, using this method to bet on it would still probably not yield a profit.

In all honesty, a better bet would probably be to invest your money in lottery tickets each week.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 21:05
You must be fishing.

I'm not even going to ask you to explain this one....
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 18 Jun 07 21:07
That's why I believe an accumulator is the ONLY way you are going to win at Baseball. That's what my experience tells me.

Good luck if you can make money this way, but I think most people that do make money on baseball (and other sports) will disagree strongly with you on this. Accas are the bookmaker's friend - their attraction is the potential for high payouts, but the odds are in favour of the house.
By:
McNabb
When: 18 Jun 07 21:09
Good to hear fen. I love betting on the golf myself. Loved the US open the other day. How did u get on?

Im suprised at the profit i have shown on baseball this year tbh as my knowledge is incredibly lacking on it. Its only my second year of following it. I find having a fantasy team helps a lot tbh!!
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 18 Jun 07 21:10
Some people just can't see the wood for the trees.

OK then, any time you fancy an accumulator phone Betfair and ask them to put it up, and I'll lay you however much you want on it.
By:
EnglishDbacksJagsFan
When: 18 Jun 07 21:10
Yeah, totally agree with the above. I sometimes get the urge to go on a glory hunt with an accumulator, though its usually on NCAAB or the NFL and i dont seriously expect to win and i would never expect to make long term profits from it.

Accys for show, Singles for dough :D
By:
odwyer1980
When: 18 Jun 07 21:23
That's why I believe an accumulator is the ONLY way you are going to win at Baseball. That's what my experience tells me.

Good luck if you can make money this way, but I think most people that do make money on baseball (and other sports) will disagree strongly with you on this. Accas are the bookmaker's friend - their attraction is the potential for high payouts, but the odds are in favour of the house.


When I wrote that, I probably should have added - as a starting bet to net you a big start.

I'm not talking about betting on accumulators every day. No way. Just one to give you the big win.

I think betting 350-500 on a 4 game MLB accumulator and a bit of hows your luck is the only way you can win/progress at this sport.

- Unless you are betting 1,000's and making single bets worth it.

Going the single route every day will end up with your bet of 100 on Johan Santana (Twins) to beat Kip Wells (Cardinals) @ 1/4 losing.
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 18 Jun 07 21:28
There's no shortcut to making money - if you want to make lots of money quickly, gambling isn't for you.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 19 Jun 07 00:11
If you are placing bad value bets, you will lose in the long run. At least if you place them in singles rather than accas, you will lose it more slowly :-)
By:
danny1985
When: 19 Jun 07 22:01
not been doin baseball too long now but in my experiences accumulators are major express stopping straight off at the poorhouse, dont bet at high stakes as what some people have mentioned but since moving to singles have shown a steady increase in profit, looking to keep going picking the 'value' odds and in the long run i belive i will come out much better off then hoping for a 4 teamer to come in which is much less likely
By:
G -man
When: 20 Jun 07 13:00
Agree in a MAJOR way that accumulators sends you to the poorhouse---it is hard enough getting ONE game right imo.....Best/Sound advice is to bet in-running----perhaps wait till a team takes a lead and then lay them at low odds---hoping the other team comes back or even makes it close....Many times a game changes leads and sometimes more than 2 or 3 times, which gives you a great opportunity to GREEN up and be in profit
By:
captaincuttle
When: 20 Jun 07 23:29
Anyone who bets accumulators at baseball is needing psychiatric help.
By:
willydog
When: 21 Jun 07 00:38
last post said it all imo
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 10:30
Disagree.

If you can create a starting amount of around 1,000+ from a decent MLB acca win, then you can start your singles betting with a better plan.

If you bet using accas every day of course you'll lose.

However, don't expect to win big from this sport from singles alone. Sooner or later, you'll lose it or get back to break even.

The only way you can win big from this game is to make a 4 team+ accumulator with a healthy stake.

Then you go from there.
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 21 Jun 07 10:43
How much will you lose before you get to 1,000?
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 10:58
How much will you lose before you get to 1,000?

If you're silly everything.

However, it's not impossible to win an accumulator at MLB. I have won around 4 of them in the last 3 months at around 2 week intervals, winning 700 from one of them.

I'd only bet around 50-150 on these accumulators at the most.

I won a 4 team accumulator the other day from a 50 stake (at Ladbr) - it won me 391 which gave me starting bank.

However, I lost 291 of it the next day when I bet on Boston to beat Atlanta (single) with Schilling on the mound. He lost, I lost. Back to square one.

It's a game of he who dares wins. You won't win jack from singles. I've done single betting extensively on MLB since 2002.

The only way you can win at this game is if you go for it.

He who dares wins as Del Boy said.

Otherwise your profit is going be temporary. Even if it isn't, it will not have been worth it.
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 21 Jun 07 14:36
You won't win jack from singles. I've done single betting extensively on MLB since 2002.

If you can't win from singles, how can you expect to win from an ACCA?

Seems a strange strategy to me.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 15:04
If you can create a starting amount of around 1,000+ from a decent MLB acca win, then you can start your singles betting with a better plan.

If you bet using accas every day of course you'll lose.

However, don't expect to win big from this sport from singles alone. Sooner or later, you'll lose it or get back to break even.



You clearly don't have a clue what you are talking about. Look at what you said here. First you want to place an accumulator to obtain 1000+ for staking on singles with a better plan.

Then you say that sooner or later betting singles you'll lose it all or get back to break even. Why bother at all then?

For the record I've been betting singles exclusively on MLB for two years and have made extremely significant profits.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 15:07
Plus your stories are inconsistent. On Monday you said:

I've had 370 on Red Sox. James is hittable and Schilling is due a good game after his last loss to Colorado.

That is all I base this outcome on - and the Red Sox have Big Papi who has won me a lot down the years.



Now you say 291? I suggest you're making it all up.

If you want to have accumulators on MLB, as I said before, pick which teams you want and then phone Betfair up so they can offer a market on it. I'll lay you as much as you want on those bets, at much better odds than Ladbrokes or any other similar bookmaker.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 15:12
You clearly don't have a clue what you are talking about. Look at what you said here. First you want to place an accumulator to obtain 1000+ for staking on singles with a better plan.

Then you say that sooner or later betting singles you'll lose it all or get back to break even. Why bother at all then?

For the record I've been betting singles exclusively on MLB for two years and have made extremely significant profits.


You've been betting for 2 years, so you're a newbie compared to me. I've been making MLB bets since 2002, so who are you to try and educate me on this game?

You are the one who does not have a clue.

You don't even want to tell me with the average stake you make on the bets you've made, as you've clearly refused in middle of this thread.

Are you this arrogant in real life?

Do you expect me to cooperate further with you if you can't even do that.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 15:16
It was 370 with ladbrokes. 291 was a can't be bothered number.

I don't boast or need to lie about losses either.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 15:59
Getting annoyed isn't going to help, but as you please. Believe me from what I've read so far, you need all the help and education that you can get. Why do you think everyone else on this thread is laughing at you? Your so-called betting strategy is bizarre to say the least, and severely lacking in all logic and common sense.

Secondly, talking money on betting forums is not something I like to do. I know others share this sentiment. Whether I'm betting 2 or 20,000 a time, it really makes little difference. Been through all this before of course, but the strategy and logic is the same regardless of the stakes. Some people bet for fun stakes, but still want to do things the right way. Some people bet for a living and bet significantly more.

Thirdly, yes I have been betting on MLB only two years. I have been amazingly successful, so it really doesn't matter if I've been betting on it for two years or twenty years. I have been betting in general for an awful lot longer than that with enough success to be doing it for a living.

I am not arrogant, I have spent an awful long time trying to help you. Several times I have typed out several hundred words here trying to point out the error of your ways. But of course you know better. I repeat though, why do you think everyone else on this thread is laughing at you? The statements you are coming out with are ridiculous in the extreme and defy all logic and sensible betting strategy.

As I said, take a look at Betfair's accumulator markets on baseball and post up here what you want to bet on and for how much, and I'll lay every single one you want to take for any stake you like.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 16:10
Getting annoyed isn't going to help, but as you please. Believe me from what I've read so far, you need all the help and education that you can get. Why do you think everyone else on this thread is laughing at you? Your so-called betting strategy is bizarre to say the least, and severely lacking in all logic and common sense.

Secondly, talking money on betting forums is not something I like to do. I know others share this sentiment. Whether I'm betting 2 or 20,000 a time, it really makes little difference. Been through all this before of course, but the strategy and logic is the same regardless of the stakes. Some people bet for fun stakes, but still want to do things the right way. Some people bet for a living and bet significantly more.

Thirdly, yes I have been betting on MLB only two years. I have been amazingly successful, so it really doesn't matter if I've been betting on it for two years or twenty years. I have been betting in general for an awful lot longer than that with enough success to be doing it for a living.

I am not arrogant, I have spent an awful long time trying to help you. Several times I have typed out several hundred words here trying to point out the error of your ways. But of course you know better. I repeat though, why do you think everyone else on this thread is laughing at you? The statements you are coming out with are ridiculous in the extreme and defy all logic and sensible betting strategy.

As I said, take a look at Betfair's accumulator markets on baseball and post up here what you want to bet on and for how much, and I'll lay every single one you want to take for any stake you like
.

I think I would rather hit my head against a brick wall then repeat what I have said in past posts.

I did single betting form 2002-2006. Long term, it's non-profitable.

You'll learn soon.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 21 Jun 07 16:22
No offence odwyer but you clearly don't have a clue what you are talking about and have adopted the "if I can't win, no one else can" mentality.

I would say your fundamental problem is the lack of ability to spot, analyse or even comprehend the notion of value. Whether you bet in singles or accas is of negligible importance in comparison.
By:
McNabb
When: 21 Jun 07 16:27
Maybe you just werent any good at it Odwyer. Dont worry though, i'm also not very good.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 16:37
I'm sure you'll enjoy taking my money even more then odwyer1980.

Put your money where your mouth is and let's see if your ridiculous theory is correct. I am saying I will lay you any accumulator on baseball that you like for any stakes at better odds than traditional bookmakers. 1, 100, 1000, 10,000 it doesn't matter. Bring it on.
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 16:43
re: McNabb

Not the case.

Many a time I would bet on bankers - for example NYY at home to Tampa Bay with Mussina on the mound (3/4 seasons ago when he started 7-2 and looked untouchable).

The Yankees already lost the first 2 games and the above example was the final game on the series.

The Yankees lost the game 2-3.

I remember it vividly as I was slumped in my bed not believing what I had seen. I was skint back then.

Everyone and their mother would have bet on NYY.

This is the sort of game that will eventually beat you.

I'm pretty much educated on what pitchers to touch and what not to touches, so no ludicrous bets were made.

There is no way you can get a run of single wins, as sooner or later the certain win will lose and you will be back to square 1.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 16:51
Why would everyone be betting on the same team? This simply does not happen. You do get people who blindly back short-priced favourites like yourself, who do not consider it possible for the Yankees/Red Sox/Mets and so on to lose to some of the weaker teams in the league. That is why it is profitable at times to lay these favourites because the weight of money from mug punters forces the price down.

It seems like what you're suggesting is that if you bet on four such favourites instead of one, and you believe this is more likely to win in the long-term? Each post makes you look more and more ridiculous.
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 21 Jun 07 16:51
Crikey, there's some cobblers being talked on this thread.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 16:53
And for once, it's not me doing most of it Dirk :D
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 21 Jun 07 16:56
Nope, it's not you!
By:
odwyer1980
When: 21 Jun 07 16:56
Not even Nostradamus would have backed TB for that match.

Tai - you are in denial. You are trying to convince yourself that singles is only way to go.
By:
MoneyBagger
When: 21 Jun 07 17:02
From Woodland and Woodland (Bulletin of Economic Research - 2003). The reverse favourite-longshot bias and market efficiency in major league baseball: an update

Results in this paper are remarkably similar to Woodland and Woodland (1994). Baseball bettors continue to overbet favourites and underbet underdogs relative to their chances of winning. Average returns to wagers on underdogs for the last ten seasons, are virtually identical to the previous study of the 1978-89 seasons. The tendency of baseball and hockey bettors to overbet favourites is in direct contrast to the well-documented FL bias found in horseracing.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 17:05
I give up, you're clearly past helping and live in some sort of fantasy world.

As I keep saying, I'll lay you as many of your accumulators as you like. Not going to happen of course as you're all talk and must know how stupid your ideas are.
By:
captaincuttle
When: 21 Jun 07 19:23
Odwyer1980 - If you won`t listen to Tai, a mere novice who has only been betting on baseball for 2 years ;) then try listening to someone who has been betting on the game long before you were even born. Nobody on this planet can win money betting accumulators at baseball. It`s hard enough getting a single up which you even admit yourself in a round about way. You can have the greatest pitcher ever on your side but you`ll not win if he`s off on the night. The more teams you bet, the more chance there is that you`ll be on a top pitcher whose off. If you can`t win backing singles, how on earth do you expect to win betting accumulators? Just because a team is 1/2 or 1/3 doesn`t mean to say they`ll win. Like tai says, Betting on baseball is like betting on everything else - it`s all about value. If you think a team should be 5/6 and they are trading at 5/4, then thats a value bet. Price the matches up before you see the bookmakers odds available and take it from there. 99% of gamblers don`t have any patience or are prepared to put in the hard work - they all want that big win and quickly - and all end up losing. Singles is the only way to win at Baseball or any other betting medium. If you are only betting 50 stakes then settle for 40-60 profit each bet. As the tortoise said to the hare "Slow and steady wins the races".
By:
Proud to be a Northener
When: 21 Jun 07 19:27
captaincuttle,good post.
By:
No Chatname Specified
When: 21 Jun 07 20:15
Too much common sense there for our friend who knows it all I think captain.
By:
Fenway
When: 21 Jun 07 20:16
Is this argument still raging?
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 21 Jun 07 20:20
This is nothing, when i get into it, it goes on for days!!!!


As Ian Brown famously said on BBC2 when they sound failed.


"Amateurs"
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