North-East Trends Fan

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -197.5pts  ROI: -56.43%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Very hard lines last week as my headline pick (George McNeill @ 85) finished 2nd in the Greenbrier.

Illinois this week for the John Deere Classic. Low scores the order of the day on this forgiving Par 71 track.

My value selections are below:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Robert GARRIGUS 3pts @ 75
Martin FLORES 2pts @ 80
Russell HENLEY 1.5pts @ 130
Jhonattan VEGAS 1pt @ 260
Charlie WI 0.5pts @ 450
Johnson WAGNER 0.5pts @ 750
Sean O'HAIR 0.5pts @ 370
Bryce MOLDER 0.5pts @ 410
Steven BOWDITCH 0.5pts @ 300

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -187.5pts  ROI: -55.15%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

This week's event is The Greenbrier Classic from The Old White TPC in West Virginia.

Playing as one of the easier Par 70 tracks on tour, the event should be a test of approach play as well as demanding a deft touch on and around the greens.

My value selections are below:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

George McNEILL 2pts @ 85
- Steady type with two wins to his name on Tour and in reasonable form of late
- T17 here last year

Chris STROUD 2pts @ 75
- In a consistent run of form of late
- T18 here in 2011

John HUH 1.5pts @ 130
- The young New Yorker is an in-form shot-maker who has already won on tour

Ted POTTER JR 1.5pts @ 140
- Won this event in 2012 and was T6 last year
- Also won twice in 74 starts on the Web.com Tour

Ben CURTIS 1pt @ 260
- Multiple winner on Tour with a decent short game
- T17 here last year and T32 in 2011

Brian GAY 1pts @ 440
- Another multiple winner on tour
- Excellent putter and this shorter track should suit too

Luke GUTHRIE 1pts @ 230
- Young Illinoisan who I am keen to follow at decent prices as I see him as a certain future winner on tour
- Won twice on the Web.com Tour in just 11 starts
- Decent short game

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -177.5pts  ROI: -53.8%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

It's the Quicken Loans National (formerly the AT&T National) at Congressional in Maryland this week, an event hosted by Tiger Woods' foundation and one which also sees the latter make a long awaited return to competition (he's currently trading around the 18/1 mark). Jason Day, Justin Rose and Jordan Spieth are others towards the head of the market.

The Blue Course at Congressional is a long Par 71 track and a good all round test. I'm focusing on players with length off the tee (preferably combined with accuracy) and who have event / recent form.

My value selections are below:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Hunter MAHAN 4pts @ 50
- Excellent driver of the ball who T8 here in 2013

Nick WATNEY 2.5pts @ 80
- Solid long game and a very promising T11 in Connecticut last week

Jhonattan VEGAS 1pt @ 200
- Huge hitter who T4 here two years ago. Promising displays in recent weeks

Morgan HOFFMAN 0.75pts @ 200
- Young American is another long driver who T8 here last year

Martin LAIRD 0.75pts @ 230
- Multiple winner on Tour. The Scot is long and accurate off the tee and T11 here in 2012

Sean O'HAIR 0.5pts @ 580
- Another multiple winner on Tour who is long off the tee. T22 here in 2012

Kyle STANLEY 0.5pts @ 560
- T22 here in 2012. 30th in Driving Distance on PGA Tour this season

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -157.5pts  ROI: -50.8%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

The PGA Tour heads to TPC River Highlands in Connecticut this week for the Travelers Championship.

Selections only this week due to time constraints but focusing on solid ball strikers with a good touch around the greens on this shortish Par 70 track.

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Chris STROUD 2.5pts @ 85
Russell KNOX 2pts @ 85
Luke GUTHRIE 1.5pts @ 160
Brendan STEELE 1pt @ 180
John HUH 1pt @ 170
Robert STREB 1pt @ 150
Bud CAULEY 1pt @ 390

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -147.5pts  ROI: -49.2%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

A tie for 6th for my top pick Billy Horschel was the best finish for my selections in the St Jude last week.

It's the second Major of the season this Thursday, the US Open from Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina in what looks to be a wide open and intriguing event with the market headed by Rory McIlroy @ 12.

The course has been altered dramatically since it last hosted this championship in 2005. Lengthened to over 7500 yards, gone is the penal rough so closely associated with US Open set-ups. Instead, if the players miss the fairways off the tees on this Par 70 track, they face sandy areas and wiry grass for their approaches to the tight and tricky greens. I'm looking for good, long drivers who are solid iron players with a decent short game and also have a bit of class in an event which is going to demand a lot of thought and strategy.

My value selections are below. Of those towards the head of the market, I fancy Bubba Watson (@ 19) to go very well once more this season as its a course which is going to demand plenty of the kind of imagination and shot-making that he excels in.

As ever for the Majors, it's double stakes for me this week. Best of luck and enjoy:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Sergio GARCIA 4.5pts @ 38
- I have a feeling his solid tee to green play and much improved short game mean that this is the week when the Spaniard finally lands his first Major championship
- 1st in Scoring Average on Tour this year, 5th in Scrambling, 8th in GIR and 30th in Total Driving is an impressive armoury to be going in to battle with here

Zach JOHNSON 3pts @ 85
- Ever reliable, the former Masters winner is very solid from tee to green, 15th in Scrambling this year and 23rd in Scoring Average

Jim FURYK 3pts @ 48
- 1st in Scrambling this season, the accurate American is also 19th in Scoring Average

Hunter MAHAN 2pts @ 75
- Simply too big a price for a player with his long game and class. T13 in Total Driving

Bill HAAS 1.75pts @ 100
- Multiple winner who is a solid driver and 17th in GIR this year shows his long game is in fine nick

Graham DELAET 1.5pts @ 110
- Desperately needs to find form with the flat stick if he is to contend but the big hitting Canadian is 1st in GIR, 5th in Total Driving and 13th in Scoring Average this season

Brendon TODD 1.5pts @ 110
- Enjoying a very consistent year and posted his maiden PGA Tour win last month
- Has an excellent short game

Billy HORSCHEL 1pt @ 190
- Very solid from tee to green and in form after a decent showing in Memphis last week

Ryan PALMER 1pt @ 160
- Great driver of the ball. The Texan is 15th in Scoring Average this year and 21st in GIR

Lucas GLOVER 0.75pts @ 910
- Simply a huge price for a recent US Open winner and another very good driver. Has won before after seemingly being well out of form

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -137.5pts  ROI: -47.4%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

The final stop on Tour before the second major of the year, the US Open at Pinehurst, gets underway next Thursday is the St Jude Classic from TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, beginning later today.

I'm focusing on solid drivers and good all-round ball strikers in the hunt for this week's winner.

My value selections are below. Of those at shorter prices, I can see Lee Westwood's long game meaning he has a decent week here too (@ 20).

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Billy HORSCHEL 4pts @ 48
- Consistent and an accurate solid ball striker who has put in a good last couple of weeks
- T10 here last year
- 19th in Total Driving on Tour

Kevin STADLER 2.25pts @ 85
- Excellent from tee to green and a better showing in last week's Memorial
- T11 here in 2012 and also T27 here last year
- 6th in Total Driving

Chad CAMPBELL 1pt @ 260
- The Texan is another very solid ball striker and went well for a long way last time out before fading in the final round
- T3 here two years ago

Andrew SVOBODA 1pt @ 190
- The big New Yorker is putting in some decent finishes this season and T19 last week in Ohio
- 26th in Total Driving

Martin LAIRD 1pt @ 190
- The Scot is an excellent driver and a multiple winner on Tour
- T24 here in 2012

Jonathan BYRDL 0.75pts @ 300
- Very good driver of the ball who T10 in this last year and T25 in 2011
- Five time winner on the PGA Tour

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -127.5pts  ROI: -45.5%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

My headline pick, John Senden, could only manage a T5 in the Crowne Plaza in Texas last week as Adam Scott beat Jason Dufner in a play-off to remain World Number 1 following an extremely tightly bunched and exciting tournament.

The PGA Tour moves north to Ohio this week to the course that Jack (Nicklaus) built, Muirfield Village in Dublin.

It's a track that provides a real test on the approach to, and around, the fast greens and I'm looking for strong iron players with good course management, preferably with form at the event, and with a decent short game.

My value selections follow but among those who I'd also expect to go well at shorter prices are the likes of Bubba Watson (@34) and Jim Furyk (@32). Rory McIlroy, fresh from his triumph in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, heads the market at around the 8/1 mark.


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Charl SCHWARTZEL 3.25pts @ 55
- The South African has shown progressive form in this event, following up a T22 in 2011 with a T19 in 2012 and a T8 finish here last year
- Having a steady season, he finished T11 last time out in America at Bay Hill and has a solid short game, 24th in Scrambling this season

Charles HOWELL III 2.25pts @ 80
- Enjoying a more consistent season and this event should play to his strengths as he looks for his third PGA Tour victory
- Has displayed solid course management to be 3rd in Bogey Avoidance on Tour this year and also sits 9th in Scrambling
- T21 here last season and T22 in 2011

KJ CHOI 1.5pts @ 130
- Won this in 2007 and has finished in the Top 22 here in each of the last three seasons
- Solid iron player who is T37 in proximity to the hole on Tour this year

John HUH 1pt @ 230
- Thrives on the tighter, shot-makers' tracks and shown some improved form of late including a T3 in the RBC Heritage in April
- T19 in this two years ago

David HEARN 1pt @ 150
- Solid form of late including a T6 in The Players and a T21 last week in Texas
- T21 in this event last year and T25 the year before that
- 19th in Bogey Avoidance on Tour this season and has won on the web.com Tour

Scott STALLINGS 0.5pts @ 300
- This long hitter already has three PGA Tour wins to his name before the age of 30
- Shown a liking for this event. T4 here last year, T25 in 2012 and T20 in 2011

Branden GRACE 0.5pts @ 340
- With four wins already on the European Tour at the age of just 26, the talented South African looks to be a huge price this week
- T25 here two years ago

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -117.5pts  ROI: -43.52%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

A winner at last as Brendon Todd (@160) delivered on the potential he has shown throughout the season so far by taking the HP Byron Nelson Championship in Dallas last week.

The Tour remains in Texas this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational from Colonial Country Club, a tournament demanding craft and guile which has normally gone to more experienced members of the PGA circuit.

Accuracy off the tee and the ability to shape the ball on the approaches to the greens will be paramount.

Zach Johnson (@15) and Jim Furyk (@16.5) seem sure to go well but are fairly easy to swerve at the prices. I can also see this being the type of event to suit the very talented Harris English (@65) but given their recent form and overall experience, I marginally prefer my top two picks over Georgian this week. My value selections follow.


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

John SENDEN 3pts @ 50
- The Aussie is a superb ball striker who is enjoying his best ever season (including a win) and this track seems certain to suit
- T8 here in 2011. 15th in GIR on Tour this season
- Has followed a solid T8 in the Masters with another three consecutive Top 30 finishes to show that he remains in very good heart

Louis OOSTHUIZEN 3pts @ 50
- Improved form of late and the South African finished T19 here two years ago
- Solid driver who won't mind if the usual Texas wind blows this week

Matt EVERY 1.5pts @ 85
- Enjoying a solid season which has included a win and a further four Top 10s
- Accurate type who T4 here last season

Bo VAN PELT 1pt @ 130
- A better showing in The Players Championship (T26) offers hope after not showing his usual consistency this season
- 3rd here three years ago, followed up with a T19 in 2012 and a T31 last season

Kevin STADLER 1pt @ 150
- Another player whose strength is accuracy who has already won on Tour this season
- 7th here in 2011. 19th in GIR on Tour this year

Jerry KELLY 0.5pts @ 320
- Steady sort with three previous wins on Tour
- Three Top 10s this season including a T6 in another Texas event at the end of March

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -260.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Another frustrating week after watching Martin Kaymer, who I had tipped up the previous week, turn in a fine display to win The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

The PGA Tour returns to Texas this week for the HP Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons in Irving. Focusing on long, solid drivers and decent putters on this shortish Par 70 track.


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Ryan PALMER 3.25pts @ 50
- The Texan is a long, solid driver and a multiple winner on PGA Tour
- Lost in a play-off here in 2011 and T9 two years ago
- Twice finished 2nd already this season and T7 in Houston a few weeks ago

Freddie JACOBSON 2pts @ 80
- Excellent putter in decent form of late
- T17 here last year

Morgan HOFFMAN 2pts @ 80
- Long hitting youngster who T5 here last season
- Also a solid putter and put in a promising performance at Sawgrass last week, finishing T17

Brendan STEELE 1.75pts @ 100
- Big hitter who has won in Texas before
- Put in a fine final round at Sawgrass last week so confidence should be high

Brendon TODD 1pt @ 160
- Putting in a consistent season as he looks for his first win on the PGA Tour
- Good putter who T17 here last year and went well in Texas a few starts ago

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -250.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):

Harris ENGLISH 2.5pts @ 60
Graham DeLAET 2pts @ 85
Ryan MOORE 2pts @ 100
John SENDEN 1.5pts @ 140
Billy HORSCHEL 1pt @ 190
John MERRICK 0.5pts @ 770
Tim CLARK 0.5pts @ 800