SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -127.5pts ROI: -45.5%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)
My headline pick, John Senden, could only manage a T5 in the Crowne Plaza in Texas last week as Adam Scott beat Jason Dufner in a play-off to remain World Number 1 following an extremely tightly bunched and exciting tournament.
The PGA Tour moves north to Ohio this week to the course that Jack (Nicklaus) built, Muirfield Village in Dublin.
It's a track that provides a real test on the approach to, and around, the fast greens and I'm looking for strong iron players with good course management, preferably with form at the event, and with a decent short game.
My value selections follow but among those who I'd also expect to go well at shorter prices are the likes of Bubba Watson (@34) and Jim Furyk (@32). Rory McIlroy, fresh from his triumph in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, heads the market at around the 8/1 mark.
Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Charl SCHWARTZEL 3.25pts @ 55
- The South African has shown progressive form in this event, following up a T22 in 2011 with a T19 in 2012 and a T8 finish here last year
- Having a steady season, he finished T11 last time out in America at Bay Hill and has a solid short game, 24th in Scrambling this season
Charles HOWELL III 2.25pts @ 80
- Enjoying a more consistent season and this event should play to his strengths as he looks for his third PGA Tour victory
- Has displayed solid course management to be 3rd in Bogey Avoidance on Tour this year and also sits 9th in Scrambling
- T21 here last season and T22 in 2011
KJ CHOI 1.5pts @ 130
- Won this in 2007 and has finished in the Top 22 here in each of the last three seasons
- Solid iron player who is T37 in proximity to the hole on Tour this year
John HUH 1pt @ 230
- Thrives on the tighter, shot-makers' tracks and shown some improved form of late including a T3 in the RBC Heritage in April
- T19 in this two years ago
David HEARN 1pt @ 150
- Solid form of late including a T6 in The Players and a T21 last week in Texas
- T21 in this event last year and T25 the year before that
- 19th in Bogey Avoidance on Tour this season and has won on the web.com Tour
Scott STALLINGS 0.5pts @ 300
- This long hitter already has three PGA Tour wins to his name before the age of 30
- Shown a liking for this event. T4 here last year, T25 in 2012 and T20 in 2011
Branden GRACE 0.5pts @ 340
- With four wins already on the European Tour at the age of just 26, the talented South African looks to be a huge price this week
- T25 here two years ago