LeeDixon

Chelsea's reward for eliminating Benfica is a showdown with Barcelona, the best club team in the world.

Barcelona deserve all the credit they get for the way they play, the spirit with which they play, how hard they all work in terms of tracking back and closing down and of course...for the sheer number of goals they score.

But they're not invincible, no-one is. Two years ago Inter Milan frustrated them over two legs playing a typically Jose Mourinho-style of pragmatic football and this season several teams in La Liga have held them, especially away from the Nou Camp.

And one area where Chelsea can get the better of them is in terms of physical battles. For all their speed, trickery and skill, Barca are a small side and the bigger, stronger, heavier players in Chelsea's ranks have to make the most of that advantage.

So for my money Didier Drogba has to start. Whether Fernando Torres plays alongside him or not is for Roberto Di Matteo to decide but the Ivorian has to play and try to bully Barcelona's back four. The other thing Chelsea need to do is make it difficult for the two play-makers, Xavi and Iniesta, to receive the ball. Mark them or close down the defenders looking to feed them the ball. Easier said than done of course but it's imperative.

Finally, they need to make sure the two-full backs, probably Branislav Ivanovic and Ashley Cole, play narrow at the back. The responsibility to close down Barca's two full-backs, particularly Dani Alves, will be of Chelsea's two wide forwards so Ivanovic and Cole need to play narrow rather than wide. That means that if the likes of Lionel Messi and Alexis Sanchez can turn and beat their marker, they won't have so much space to run into.

I'm not sure Chelsea will actually win this match, despite the fact they're at home and are carrying momentum after that superb FA Cup win over Tottenham. But I do think they can draw first blood here. If they are quick out of the blocks and are aggressive from the start they can create a few chances before Barca get their passing game going. So I'm backing Chelsea at a pre-match 5.1 with a view to laying off at round 2.7 if they go a goal up.

Both Teams to score?

The game might not pan out exactly as I've predicted of course but I do think Chelsea will score here. They simply have to take the game to Barcelona because they know they'll hardly see the ball in the return leg, so I'm expecting them to be positive.

As for Barcelona, that 0-0 draw in Milan a few weeks ago was the only time in 18 matches that they didn't score so the odds are stacked against a Chelsea shut-out. There's more value in backing both teams to score at 1.8 than over 2.5 goals at 1.86 because I think 1-1 is a big runner in this game. So that's our second bet of the match.

Bookings Odds

This will be a high-pressure affair as it is between two sides who don't particularly like each other. And the fact referee Felix Brych will be in charge won't help keep the card count down. The German has sent off eight players in just 25 matches refereed this season and showed six bookings when Chelsea hosted Napoli a month or so ago. There should be at least nine bookings points in this match (five yellows or a red and two yellows) and that's worth backing at 1.9.

1pt Back-to-lay Chelsea @ 5.1
2 pts Back both teams to score @ 1.8
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ 1.9

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

There was nothing particularly surprising about the manner of Arsenal's win over Wolves on Wednesday night. They would probably have secured a relatively comfortable win anyway but the minute the Midlanders were reduced to ten men, that was pretty much game over.

But as that was all going on, Wigan were doing something far more unexpected. They were beating Manchester United at home and whereas that re-opened the title race, that's something they couldn't care less about. What it did do was secure them an unexpected three points that could well end up being the difference between staying up or going down.

Match Odds

You can say what you like about Arsene Wenger's transfer policy and something of a stubbornness as regards his beliefs. But there's no doubting the man's record. Arsenal have finished in the Top 4 every single season he's been in charge of the Gunners and in the process he's done a wonderfully responsible job of keeping the club's finances in check.

They're almost certain to finish in the Top 4 once again and secure Champions League football next year. Not that this was a certainty earlier on in the campaign. A quick look at the Betfair market tells you they're 1.06 shots to finish in the Top 4 but they traded as big as 6.0 in this market earlier on in the season.

The Gunners are 1.29 to beat Wigan and I think they will but we don't want to be backing them at that sort of price. Instead it might be best to back them to win to nil. During their superb run over the last couple of months the key has been their defence, not their attack. We all know that Robin van Persie will score goals and that other guys like Theo Walcott, Mikel Arteta and Tomas Rosicky will chip in with a few of their own and create chances plenty of chances for the Dutchman. That's never been the problem. But what they've done recently is keep clean sheets. I've always said that if Tomas Vermaelen is around and fit the others raise their game and feel more confident. That's what's happened over the past few matches and that's why they've kept four clean sheets in their last five matches. And that's included playing Manchester City (at home) and Everton away, hardly two of the easier fixtures in English football.

If you need further convincing that the 1.9 on Arsenal to win to nil is a good bet, consider the following stat from Opta: Arsenal have won all nine matches at home to Wigan in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet in each of the last six.

First Goalscorer/To Score

The talent of Theo Walcott has never been an issue. Anyone with that electric pace and those quick feet is always going to be a handful for defenders at any level. The problem with Theo has mostly been one of decision-making. Shooting when he should have passed, crossing when he should have shot, that sort of thing.

But when he's in form he's one of the league's most dangerous players and that's certainly the case now. On Wednesday night it was his run into the box that led to the penalty and sending off that ended the match almost before it got started. And he followed that up with a fine goal a few minutes earlier.

He's scored in three of his last four matches and I'm going to back him in both the 'first goalscorer' and 'to score' markets.

Corners Odds

Wigan may not see a huge amount of the ball in this match but when they do have it, they'll try and get it out wide. Arsenal's system also favours getting the ball to the men on the wings even though it doesn't involve a huge amount of crossing into the box. Either way, I think we'll have plenty of corners here and 13 or more at around 2.8 looks a good bet.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 1.9
1 pt Back Theo Walcott to be first goalscorer @ 8.0
1 pt Back Theo Walcott to score at anytime @ 2.7
1 pt Back 13 or more corners in the match @ 2.8

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

The first FA Cup semi-final of the weekend is an intriguing fixture pitting together the two Merseyside giants with Everton holding a live chance of inflicting real pain on an out-of-form Liverpool side.

These are strange times for the Reds. The Carling Cup is in the trophy cabinet, but league results have been woeful this year and this proud team find themselves 33 points off Manchester United in the table - that sort of total has kept teams safe in years gone by! Damian Comolli has taken the flak for this poor state of affairs by receiving his marching orders this week.

Andy Carroll's last-minute winner at Blackburn in midweek earned Liverpool a first victory in five games but that's not enough to suggest they've turned a corner.

By contrast, Everton arrive in fine fettle - unbeaten in five since losing to Arsenal with four wins 'to nil' in that run, including Easter Monday's 4-0 hammering of a useful Sunderland side.


Match Odds

Given all of that, why are Everton such outsiders to triumph on Saturday lunchtime? Liverpool trade at 2.54 to win this in 90 minutes with the Toffees available to back at 3.25, the draw is 3.5.

The Reds' short price is surely down to poor results against their chief rivals in recent years. Both games have been lost this year, with Everton failing to score in both and the general trend is that Liverpool win more than their neighbours. And, as Opta tell us, these two have met four times in FA Cup semi-finals. The Toffees won the first but the last three have gone Liverpool's way.

Forget that though - if ever there was a time for Everton to land a blow, this is it. I'm backing Everton to win in 90 minutes at 3.2. The more cautious might prefer to take the 2.18 on the Blue half of Merseyside qualifying for the final.


Under 2.5 Goals

Everton's defence has been wonderful during their strong recent run - keeping clean sheets against Sunderland (twice), Swansea and West Brom. I'm expecting a close-fought affair and I'm happy to back under 2.5 goals at odds-on (1.76).


To Score

If I had to back one man to break the deadlock then it can only be Nikica Jelavic whose name jumps off the page in the goalscorer markets given his recent efforts. The Croatian has five in all competitions since his January arrival at Goodison Park. Any price above 3.3 and I will be a backer.


Recommended Bets

2pts Back Everton to win @ 3.25
3pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
2pts Back Nikica Jelavic to score @ 3.3 and above


For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

First things first. QPR were extremely unlucky to have had that penalty awarded against them on Sunday afternoon, which saw Shaun Derry sent off in the process. I was watching the referee closely as Ashley Young went tumbling in the box and Lee Mason was almost blowing his whistle and taking out his red card before Young hit the deck. It was like he'd almost decided that it was a penalty and a sending-off before it even happened. All very bizarre.

But if we're being honest, United would almost certainly have won the match anyway. They're just about the most in-form side in the division, were at home and had started much the stronger. The result of it all is that Rangers are now without a key player for this match and that the other nine outfield players who were left on the pitch had to work that much harder for the reminder of the game to make up for Derry's absence. But Premier League managers are paid good money to solve problems and make the best out of difficult situations. That concept won't be lost on Mark Hughes.


Match odds

A lot was said about how QPR had the toughest run-in of all the relegation-threatened sides. This home tie against Swansea is one of the matches that Hughes would have identified as must-win. Not only because of the three points but also because of the momentum and the belief that would come with the win and would help their cause no ends when they travel to West Brom at the weekend.

This may actually be the best possible time to play Swansea. For starters they're on their worst run of form all season and have lost their last three matches. It may just be that they peaked a month or two ago and that the rigours of playing in the Premier League are starting to catch up with them. They have a smallish squad and Brendan Rodgers doesn't like to shuffle his pack too much so it's inevitable that some of the players will be feeling quite tired. They've almost certainly done enough already to stay in the division and will be confident that upcoming home matches against Blackburn and Wolves will yield enough points to make sure they're mathematically safe.

The key to stopping Swansea is to do exactly what both Everton and Newcastle did when they beat them at the Liberty Stadium: upset their passing rhythm. And you do that by pressing high up the field and stopping the supply to Swansea's central midfielders. That means a lot of hard work for QPR's front men in terms of closing down defenders so whoever plays upfront will need to understand that Wednesday night will be as much about that as it will be about scoring goals.

This match is probably do-or-die for QPR and I have a feeling they'll get the win here, even if I'm not convinced they'll actually avoid the drop, whether they pick up three points or not. But to do that they'll have to keep their discipline. Derry's sending-off at the weekend may have been extremely unlucky but the other six red cards they've been shown this season (which makes them the team with the most dismissals this season in the Premier League as Opta tell us) were probably justified. There can't be a repeat of that here.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a high-scoring game. QPR will be probably be happy to defend a 1-0 lead if they go ahead and Swansea rarely score too many away from home themselves. They did get three away at Craven Cottage a few weeks back but that was very much the exception to the rule and a case of Fulham just having a really bad day the office. Under 2.5 goals is a confident selection at 1.93.


First Goalscorer

If we think this is going to be a low-scoring game it makes more sense to predict who will open the scoring than to go for a player to score at anytime. Bobby Zamora was left out of the starting line-up at Old Trafford which could be an indication that Hughes was desperate to have the target man fresh for this game. The ex-Fulham man has been good at leading the line, most of the time having to try and create something for himself given the service hasn't been great, and I think he could be the hero for QPR here.


Recommended Bets

2 pts Back QPR to win at 2.18
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.93
1 pt Back Bobby Zamora to be first goalscorer @ 7.5


For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

A match between two sides who really need a win for very different reasons. Blackburn were extremely poor at the weekend and let indiscipline get the better of them both in terms of poor defending and a late red card. As for Liverpool, by hook or by crook, they need to start winning league matches.


Match Odds

You could almost blindly lay Liverpool for every Premier League match they're involved in. They continue to be under-priced both home and away and the odds on offer about them winning games are based solely on reputation and some of the names in that squad. Ten days ago we took a huge price on Newcastle to beat them and they duly obliged in a game they pretty much dominated throughout.

You can probably see where I'm going with this! I simply can't have Liverpool at 2.16 to win a tricky away game against a side fighting for their lives. Ewood Park is a tough place to go and we saw how much Manchester United struggled to break them down last Monday.

The defending champions needed a moment of brilliance from Antonio Valencia and a late second from Ashley Young to put the game to bed and the way the United players celebrated at the end was a good indication of just how tough it was for them.

A few weeks ago I thought the goals of Yakubu would save Blackburn from the drop but he's been a bit quiet over the last few games and they really need him to start firing. He actually seems to save his best for the bigger games so I wouldn't be too surprised if he does a good job of leading the line against a Liverpool defence who seems a shadow of the stingy one that started the season so well.

I think Blackburn are over-priced at 3.9 but the stats don't lie. Opta tell us Rovers have won just two of the last 26 Premier League games against Liverpool so they obviously struggle for some reason against them. But having watched how dogged they were against Manchester United and having said Liverpol were far too short, that means there's definitely value in the draw price at 3.6.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a goalless draw because I'm not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games.

But neither side is exactly prolific either and in Liverpool's case a clue for that may be in the fact they keep hitting the frame of the goal rather the goal itself. As Opta reveal: the Reds have hit the woodwork 28 times this season. If all their woodwork strikes (and the oppositions') had gone in, they'd be 13 points better off. Other reasons include the fact that no-one has made a good fist of giving Luis Suarez good support and the fact the service to the Uruguyan has often been poor.

1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline but under 2.5 goals is probably the best way to play this.


Bookings Odds

Don't underestimate the importance of such things as the time when a match is played. Night matches can often create a more electric atmosphere, certainly more so than those 12:45 kick-offs we see these days because of TV scheduling. A night game is also more likely to have dew on the grass and that leads to the ball zipping around nicely but also the odd mist-timed tackle.

It's the teams who are playing poorly who often get players booked and let's face it, not many sides in the division are struggling as much as these two.

Frustration boils over because you're not executing game-plans or individuals aren't doing things with the ball that they know they're capable of in training.

This match has the makings of a fiery contest and we should get at least five bookings so nine points and above at around 2.6 appeals.


Recommended Bets

2pts Back the draw @ 3.6
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.04
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ 2.6


For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Blackburn have been on a great run of late and they've gone from virtual certainties for relegation to one of five or six teams who are in the mix to go down. I'm not sure anyone at Liverpool will be receiving a Christmas card from Steve Kean later on in the year, though. The Reds unexpectedly lost to both QPR and Wigan in consecutive matches, two of the teams Blackburn would least like to see pick up points at the moment.

As for Manchester United, if for a period they had to battle hard to stay in the title race, over the past few weeks it's been Manchester City doing the hard work for them by dropping points against teams you really wouldn't expect them to. Much was said about United's easier run-in but this is certainly one of the tougher matches they have from now till the end of the season.

Match Odds

With all due respect to Blackburn, Ewood Park isn't one of those venues that you travel to in the expectation that you'll end up being involved in a really beautiful, free-flowing game of football. Entertaining, yes. There have been plenty of goals scored at Blackburn's ground this season but it's credit to Steve Kean's side that no-one really likes having to play there.

There was clearly an element of fortune about the way Blackburn beat United at Old Trafford on New Year's Eve. Opta remind us that the visitors scored three goals from just three shots on target and two of those were penalties. But however that win came about, it will have given Kean's men plenty of confidence and they'll believe that they can rattle a United side who has once again peaked at just the right time. And so do I.

Having also beaten Arsenal this campaign, Blackburn seem to be able to raise their game against the big guns. I really believe they're good for a point here. At least. And it may be a point that United won't be viewing as disastrous either after City's draw at home to Sunderland. I wouldn't completely rule out a home win either so a lay of United is definitely the bet at a short price.

Under 2.5 Goals

It's three clean sheets in a now for Manchester United which suggests the central defensive pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans is really starting to gel. I don't necessarily think they'll keep a clean sheet here but I certainly don't think they'll concede more than one. And that 1-0 win at home to Fulham is an indication that they're playing things a little safer, a start contrast to their gung-ho approach at the start of the season. Over 2.5 goals is a strong favourite in this market but I'm not sure it should be.

Bookings Odds

This is a derby of sorts and I expect it to be a scrappy one. There's a lot at stake here and that normally means a couple of careless tackles or the odd cynical foul. Nine points and above looks a good bet at 2.1.

2 pts Lay Manchester United @ 1.4
1 pt Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.42
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ 2.1

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

I've tried - honestly, I have - but I can't make a case for backing Fulham or laying Manchester United at Old Trafford. This is the business end of the season and, as we all know, the champions are very good at business. I will be shocked if this ends in anything other than three points for the home side - I've just got to find a way of profiting from that eventuality.

Match Odds /United Win to Nil
Of course, the Betfair markets are not populated by fools and the prices on a United win reflect the likely dominance of the home side. United are just 1.26 to win a 12th home game of this Premier League season and, although shocks can happen, we aren't going to see one here.

United are masters at giving an opponent time on the ball, almost lulling the opposition into their comfort zone - and then destroying them. We know that Fulham can play a bit and they might look competitive for a while but, with Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck, Javier Hernandez, Antonio Valencia, Ashley Young and more in the home side's attacking ranks, I cannot see the Cottagers scoring more than the title-chasing hosts.

However, are we particularly interested in backing United at heavy odds-on? Well, it's hardly rocket science to do so, and I'm going to chance my arm on a home win at a bigger price. The leaders have kept clean sheets in the last two games and the partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans looks promising. Let's double up on a home win and clean sheet by backing United to win to nil at 2.1. Further encouragement comes from the Opta boys who tell us that Sir Alex's men have won their last seven Premier League games at Old Trafford against Fulham, with the Londoners failing to score in their last four.

Over 3.5 Goals
Fulham were destroyed 5-0 at Craven Cottage earlier this season and United come into this off the back of another five-goal performance, while the Cottagers conceded three at home to Swansea last weekend. The markets suggest plenty of goals, but rather than take the odds-on about over 2.5, we'll back more than 3.5 at odds-against.

First Goalscorer
There's almost certainly little or no value in backing Rooney to score first but sometimes you just have to go with your instincts. Wazza watched his team-mates run riot against Wolves but didn't get on the scoresheet himself. He will want to put that right. The England frontman has been on a fine streak and has netted five goals in his last four appearances against Fulham at Old Trafford. Sounds like a solid first scorer bet to me.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Man Utd win to nil @ 2.1
2pts Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.68
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4.0

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Neither team got the result they wanted in midweek but there's little doubt which side looks in better nick coming into the first Premier League game of the weekend.

This is fourth versus fifth and two of London's finest going head-to-head but what looked like being a memorable season for Spurs is turning sour while a campaign that was going off-beam for Chelsea is coming good for the final few months. The Betfair market says this will be a home win and, to be brutally honest, I can't find a reason to disagree with them.

Match Odds
Chelsea have been in decent form under their new manager, albeit with a couple of wins achieved against Championship opposition in the FA Cup. And, though they lost at City from a winning position, going 1-0 up away from home was a positive. They were stepping up a level on recent games and performed OK, not far off picking up a point and possibly more.

Tottenham are now in their sights and a win on Saturday will leave the Blues just two points off their north London rivals - a great position to be in and one they wouldn't have expected a month or so ago.

Spurs are in a slump and it's hard to make a case for them here. The last minute equaliser against Stoke on Wednesday night might be the point that gets them third or more likely fourth at the end of the season, but it won't have felt like that in the dressing room.

I fancy Chelsea to win this game and I think 1.94 is a very fair price for my first bet of the weekend. A plethora of Opta stats back me up - Harry Redknapp has lost his last eight visits to Stamford Bridge as a Premier League boss; Chelsea have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games; the Blues have won 16 of their 24 matches against Spurs in all competitions.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Both Teams to Score
Spurs haven't kept a Premier League clean sheet since beating Newcastle 5-0 back in early February. Chelsea have been a little better with three successive shutouts before conceding twice at City, but there are a few key absences at the back for the home team and I can see both these sides finding the back of the net. Rather than back Overs I prefer the look of backing Both Teams to Score

Penalty Taken
In such a key game I can see players doing their all to get the edge and with neither boasting a full-strength back four the challenges going in might just be a touch wayward. I can see a spot-kick being awarded, and at around 4 it will be a nice payout should it happen!

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Chelsea to win @ 1.94
2pts Back both teams to score @ 1.72
1pt Back yes in penalty taken @ 4.0

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Chelsea are on a roll. Is it that the players just didn't want to play for Andre Villas-Boas and simply didn't perform when he was there? Is it that they're desperate for Roberto Di Matteo to be given the job on a full-time basis? Or is that the likes of Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba, often left out in the cold when AVB was in charge, just make this a far better team when they're in the starting XI? It's probably a bit of all three but the truth is Chelsea are looking a completely different side to that of a month ago.

People will have plenty to say about player power and the dangers of it but, without actually knowing what went on behind the scenes and in the dressing room, it's hard to guess to what extent it does actually exist at the club. One thing is for sure: the Chelsea squad seem to have taken to Di Matteo and see him as "one of us". Whether that sort of relationship would work in the long-term remains to be seen. After what we saw of John Terry on the touchline on Wednesday, maybe the skipper fancies being the next manager!

If Chelsea are on a high, City are on an season low. For the first time this season they look a little vulnerable, lacking a bit of self-belief. Maybe they need to someone to step up to the plate and inject a new lease of life into matters on the pitch. Could that someone be Carlos Tevez? With Roberto Mancini going on record as saying the Argentinian will be involved, it may well be.

Match Odds

The game is huge for both sides. But if odds-on City win this game they will also have set a new record in the process as Opta tell us: they have won their last 19 Premier League home games and could set the record for the competition's longest ever run of home victories if they win here.

If you want to back the hosts solely on the basis of that record then the stats are on your side. But to do so is to ignore the fact that Chelsea are on the up and City are in a bit of a slump. Momentum is of huge importance in football and it's pretty obvious who is carrying it into this game. And let's not forget that it was Chelsea who defeated City for the first time in the league earlier on in the season. That result will make the visitors believe they have the upper hand here and though a Chelsea win isn't out of the question at all, the smart money is on the draw.


Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Goals. Plenty of them. Because City's defence is looking a little fragile whereas their attack has been potent all season long, at least at home. And it's a similar story for Chelsea, who have struggled to keep clean sheets for much of the season but who are looking more confident in attack. Over 2.5 goals looks a safe bet but I really fancy 2-2 or even 3-3 here so over 3.5 goals is worth a dabble at a much bigger price of 3.2.

To Score

Fernando Torres. Yes, the man who managed to go more than a whole day's worth of playing time without scoring is back. Maybe like many of the others he couldn't adapt to what Villas-Boas wanted him to do. Or maybe he just needed a couple of goals to get his confidence back, regardless of who was in charge. He looked sharp at the weekend and I think he's going to get at least one goal in a big performance.

Bookings odds

Just because it's a huge game that doesn't mean that we're going to have endless bookings in it. I know it's an obvious thing to say but no-one wants suspensions at this stage of the season. Mike Dean is in charge and is a sensible guy who tries to referee the match in an understated way. He averages just under four bookings a match this season and three or four bookings is what I think we'll get here.

2 pts Back the draw @ 3.7
1 pt Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.2
1 pt back Fernando Torres to score @ 4.0
1 pt Back 6-8 points in the bookings odds market @ 4.0

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

The Arsenal players and fans will have mixed feelings about Tuesday night. On the one hand they played incredibly well and beat the Serie A favourites 3-0, coming within a whisker of what would have been the greatest two-legged Champions League comeback ever. But on the other hand they didn't quite manage to get over the line and achieving as high a Premier League finish as possible really is all they have to play for right now.

Arsenal have now won their last four in the league and two weeks ago it was Tottenham they beat, who followed that up with defeat at home to Manchester United. All of which means Spurs are no longer guaranteed third place, which seemed to be where they'd finish (at least) for much of the season.

Arsenal's run won't end here. Newcastle have had a great season so far but there are signs that they may just have peaked already and I think this is going to be hard work for them. Opta tell us Arsenal have won nine of their last 12 Premier League home games and lost just one so home league form clearly isn't a problem for the Gunners.

1.5 isn't everyone's sort of price but it should pay out here.

Both teams to score

For all of Arsenal's goalscoring prowess in recent weeks, keeping goals out has been a bit of a problem. Their shut-out against Milan was their first in six matches. That means we've had plenty of exciting matches recently that have swung one way and then another but it also means we should cash in by backing both teams to score at 1.75.

First Goalscorer

Robin van Persie keeps on doing what he does best. Betting.Betfair's Hannah Duncan thinks that makes it virtually impossible for him to stay at Arsenal in the summer but Arsene Wenger is adamant he's not for sale. We'll see. For the time being, we're backing him to open the scoring at 4.0 or better. His record against Newcastle is good; Opta tell us he's hit four in his last five games against the Magpies.

To Score

Demba Ba had a pretty horrific game against Sunderland. A rare booking for him was followed by a missed penalty, the first Newcastle have wasted all season. He'll be wanting to make amends here and Arsenal's defenders may just let him do that. He's 3.8 to score and that looks extremely generous.

Recommended Bets
2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ 1.5
2 pts Back both teams to score @ 1.75
1 pt Back Robin van Persie to be first goalscorer @ 4.5
1 pt Back Demba Ba to score at anytime @ 3.8

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/