LeeDixon

I've tried - honestly, I have - but I can't make a case for backing Fulham or laying Manchester United at Old Trafford. This is the business end of the season and, as we all know, the champions are very good at business. I will be shocked if this ends in anything other than three points for the home side - I've just got to find a way of profiting from that eventuality.

Match Odds /United Win to Nil
Of course, the Betfair markets are not populated by fools and the prices on a United win reflect the likely dominance of the home side. United are just 1.26 to win a 12th home game of this Premier League season and, although shocks can happen, we aren't going to see one here.

United are masters at giving an opponent time on the ball, almost lulling the opposition into their comfort zone - and then destroying them. We know that Fulham can play a bit and they might look competitive for a while but, with Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck, Javier Hernandez, Antonio Valencia, Ashley Young and more in the home side's attacking ranks, I cannot see the Cottagers scoring more than the title-chasing hosts.

However, are we particularly interested in backing United at heavy odds-on? Well, it's hardly rocket science to do so, and I'm going to chance my arm on a home win at a bigger price. The leaders have kept clean sheets in the last two games and the partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans looks promising. Let's double up on a home win and clean sheet by backing United to win to nil at 2.1. Further encouragement comes from the Opta boys who tell us that Sir Alex's men have won their last seven Premier League games at Old Trafford against Fulham, with the Londoners failing to score in their last four.

Over 3.5 Goals
Fulham were destroyed 5-0 at Craven Cottage earlier this season and United come into this off the back of another five-goal performance, while the Cottagers conceded three at home to Swansea last weekend. The markets suggest plenty of goals, but rather than take the odds-on about over 2.5, we'll back more than 3.5 at odds-against.

First Goalscorer
There's almost certainly little or no value in backing Rooney to score first but sometimes you just have to go with your instincts. Wazza watched his team-mates run riot against Wolves but didn't get on the scoresheet himself. He will want to put that right. The England frontman has been on a fine streak and has netted five goals in his last four appearances against Fulham at Old Trafford. Sounds like a solid first scorer bet to me.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Man Utd win to nil @ 2.1
2pts Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.68
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4.0

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