LeeDixon

Back in my playing days we always liked going to West Ham, the Arsenal teams I played in enjoyed some good results there and the short trip across town never held much fear for us. Times have changed though, and few are expecting Arsenal to get an easy ride at Upton Park in the late Saturday kick-off.

The Premier League table offers a clue to the clubs' respective form: seventh plays eighth here, with the east Londoners one place above their north London neighbours after a strong start to the season.

Accepted football wisdom has this down as big and strong versus creative and skilful, but it's not quite as simple as that.

That assessment of Big Sam's teams is a little unfair on Allardyce. He's been around for some time now and has come up with a successful system. Sure, West Ham - like Allardyce's Bolton before them - are all about energy, power and organisation, but it works!

I'm not party to the terrace talk at the Boelyn but it seems that Sam has won over the crowd after some grumblings from the fan base and I imagine they're approaching this game feeling a little more confident compared to previous fixtures against Arsenal.

The Gunners arrive off the back of a Champions League win over Olympiakos, which was preceded by a home defeat to title rivals Chelsea. They'll be a little fatigued after Wednesday night's exertions, even though it was a relatively straightforward three points.

By contrast West Ham have had nearly a week off to get prepared and pumped, and I think Sam will have them very up for this.

In the past Arsenal have not been great at coping with the kind of pressure Allarydce teams bring, but I don't think the current side will be bullied like previous incarnations. There's a bit of steel about the Gunners these days and a different mentality to the team. Steve Bould will have the defence well prepared for Andy Carroll and co.

Arsenal won't back down from the fight and I suspect their extra class on the ball and defensive solidity will pull them through. West Ham don't concede many at home, and Arsenal have been generally tight.

I fancy a tight, low-scoring game here and how I make a profit out of that depends on how brave I want to be. The away win is 2.02, an Arsenal clean sheet is 3.4, an away win to nil will be around 6.4, while 1-0 and 2-0 Arsenal wins are 10.0 and 12.0.

These two teams may have changed a lot since West Ham were last in the Premier League but the end result will still be the same - with the three points going back to north London.

Recommended Bets
Back 1-0 and 2-0 Arsenal wins @ 10.0 and 12.0

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Manchester City v Dortmund - 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 2

Manchester City thought they had done everything necessary to pull off a famous victory in the Bernabeu. Then disaster struck and they flew back to England devastated. That's the way it goes in this competition - you can have all the money but the teams who compete for Europe's prize over many seasons keep plugging away and can often turn things around when their opponents look like 1.01 certainties. Manchester United, Madrid and Barcelona have all done it.

Now City need to take three points against this talented Dortmund side. Last season, the Blues failed to do themselves justice in the Champions League. If they lose this, which I don't believe they will, the competition could pass them by again.

Roberto Mancini's team haven't been great this season, winning only three of eight matches, and Sergio Aguero's complaints about referees suggest that a bit of frustration might be creeping in. The Etihad Stadium, however, remains a fearsome place for visiting teams. Opta remind us that City haven't been defeated in any of their last 32 Premier League matches there and Dortmund lost all of their Champions League away fixtures last season.

And yet I still have a feeling that the German's will be able to frustrate City's attack. At the other end, City are yet to keep a clean sheet this term and Robert Lewandoski, who scored in Dortmund's 1-0 win over Ajax, could unsettle them. This is a tough group and I think City will have to settle for a point from this match.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 3.8

Arsenal v Olympiakos - 19:45, Live on Sky Sports 4

How will Arsenal respond to their first defeat of the season? They played well in patches against Chelsea on Sunday but losing against a title rival is always a big blow and Arsene now needs to get them up for this one.

That shouldn't be difficult. Arsenal have never won the Champions League but take it from me, European matches are always special nights in north London and the Emirates is a bit of a fortress in this competition. If you think I'm biased then note this nugget from the folks at Opta: Arsenal have lost only twice in 42 Champions League matches at home.

They don't lose consecutive matches there often either, so I won't hold back from saying that I anticipate a comfortable home victory. Lukas Podolski grabbed the winner when the Gunners beat Montpellier and the German striker has, Opta inform me, scored three goals in his last two matches in this competition. He had a frustrating time against Chelsea but I'm going to back him to rediscover his touch against the Greeks.

Steve Bould was unhappy with Arsenal's defending against Chelsea and Thomas Vermaelen and co. will have had a good look at themselves in training this week. If they want to regain their confidence, Olympiakos could be the perfect opponents. Not only have Arsenal beaten them twice at the Emirates in recent years but the Greeks have only scored once on ten visits to English clubs. Back the Arsenal clean sheet as the Gunners pick up their second win of the campaign.

Recommended Bets
Back 3-0 @ 10.5
Back Arsenal Clean Sheet @ 2.1

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Early Champions League games can be cagey, twitchy affairs but with two powerhouses of European football coming face to face I'm expecting a full-on affair.

City would snap your hand off for a draw, but it could be a good time to play Madrid. They are struggling a bit at the moment, coming off the back of a defeat to Sevilla over the weekend and currently sitting in tenth in La Liga. There will be plenty of pressure on Madrid from the home fans and this will only increase if City can make a good start.

It was the start that set the tone of Sevilla's victory over Real - they put Madrid under pressure from the first whistle and, most importantly, got players around Xabi Alonso.

The former Liverpool man is a massive player for Madrid; he sets the tempo and is comfortable playing it short or long. This makes life very difficult for the defenders as you don't know where to set the defensive line. If the other team is just playing it short you can make the pitch nice and compact, but Alonso's ability to switch the play and hit quick balls over the top can be very effective.

Sevilla countered Alonso's threat by playing Ivan Rakitic in and around him meaning he had no time on the ball and it worked well. In Yaya Toure, City have got a player who is well suited to playing high up the pitch in a defensive-style role, but still with the ability to attack when possible.

Of course, Madrid's midfield options don't end with Alonso - it will be interesting to see where Luka Modric fits in to the equation - but every time I have seen Real, the Spaniard has been the key player, so City need to address his threat.

Looking at the Match Odds, the draw at 4.1 immediately jumps out as the value bet. I can't see City winning, but they are well capable of nicking a point. Of course, Madrid can rip anybody to pieces when and their poor form could actually work against City in that the home team will be like wounded tigers, but I sense - and hope - that City can frustrate them.

With this in mind, I also like the look of 0-0 at half-time at 3.45 with a nervous Madrid and an organised City cancelling each other out for the opening period.

For more exclusive Lee Dixon content, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/leedixon/

Friday night saw a winning start for England and a clean sweep for this column. You can't say fairer than a 5-0 away win and you can't argue with three successful bets. England were excellent in Moldova and, while nobody is getting carried away after hammering the 141st best team in the world, you can only beat what's in front of you.

At the start of a World Cup qualifying campaign, getting the simple things right is essential. That's what Roy Hodgson's men did in Chisinau and they now have a decent platform to build on. Tom Cleverley won plaudits for his performance on his first competitive start. Rightly so, he benefited from having Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard behind him, and his surges in to the box were a key part of England's dominance.

I was very impressed by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. He looked nervous during the national anthem but the key thing about nerves is how you channel them: weak competitors fold whereas good players thrive on the adrenalin and allow their nervousness to motivate them. The understanding between Oxlade-Chamberlain and Leighton Baines down the left was excellent and, in the first half, the Arsenal man was England's most creative player.


England to keep another clean sheet

Against Moldova, the only blight on an otherwise flawless night was John Terry's injury. Unfortunately, he's at a point in his career where he's going to pick up knocks with increasing frequency. He probably won't be the bedrock he's been for the last decade or so. On the plus side, centre-back is the position where England probably boast most strength in depth. Whether Gary Cahill or Phil Jagielka - my money is on the Chelsea man - gets the nod for Tuesday's match against Ukraine, I'm backing an England clean sheet.


Defoe to continue scoring streak

Both Baines and Glen Johnson made useful raids down the flanks against Moldova. Ukraine posses more pace out wide so our full-backs will probably be pinned further back this time. Same goes for the midfield and, while four of England's goals came from there last week, I think we have to look further up the park for our goalscorer bet. As England have only one striker, we'd better put our money on him. Jermain Defoe has made a strong start to the season and I'm backing him to find the net against Ukraine.


England set for a narrow win

England have a good record against the Ukraine, but what does that really count for? The 1-0 Euro 2012 group victory will be foremost in both teams' thoughts but the truth about records is that you have to be selective in how much attention to pay to them. You must stress the positives and Roy Hodgson is expert at that. He will be telling his players that they have a psychological advantage over their opponents.

I expect another England win but, at 1.41, there's no value in the match odds. England's Wembley woes are well-documented - how many times in recent years have we seen a comprehensive away win followed by a labored display in north London? - and I reckon they will have to work for this. Ukraine will sit back, try to soak up England's early impetus and break when they can. I'm backing 0-0 at half-time with England edging it in the second-half. Six points from two qualifiers? Nobody should have any complaints.


Recommended Bets
Back 0-0 @ 2.96 in half-time score
Back Jermain Defoe @ 5.6 to be first goalscorer
Back England clean sheet @ 1.88
Back 1-0 @ 6.6

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Even with a depleted forward line England will beat Moldova, and they will do so handsomely.

That doesn't mean scoring a bucketful of goals, but a solid victory without conceding will represent a job well done from our first World Cup 2014 qualifying match.

I'm about to sit down for the DVD of Moldova v Hungary - thanks, ITV! - but without watching that we already know that this is a gentle introduction to the qualifying campaign for Roy Hodgson. Moldova are 141st in the world rankings, and finished one place above minnow's minnow San Marino in Group E when comprehensively failing to reach Euro 2012. There were a couple of notable results in that campaign, with the Dutch restricted to a pair of 1-0 wins but there's nothing for England to fear. Even the stadium is a tiddler with just a 10,500 capacity so it shouldn't be too inhospitable for England.

Hodgson has had a relatively gentle introduction to life as England manager. Coming into the job as late as he did meant the press were never going to get on his back too badly during the Euros, even when we went out in poor fashion, dominated by Italy and lucky to take the game to penalties.

This is different. England have always qualified well, and Roy has had plenty of time to prepare for the coming campaign, so he'll have to live up to that.

I'll be interested to see what formation Roy opts for in Moldova. After some experimenting from Fabio Capello, we reverted to the 4-4-2 at the Euros and I thought it was a backward step. We were over-run in the midfield too often, with not enough men in there to compete. After a reasonable start against Italy at Euro 2012 (we'll ignore last month's friendly) we were dominated with Andrea Pirlo in particular highlighting the gulf in class. Fantastic though he was at Euro 2012, Steven Gerrard is not getting any younger and I feel we need more numbers in the midfield.

We had a wealth of attacking talent upfront back at Euro 2012, but that certainly isn't the case now. None of Jermain Defoe, Danny Wellbeck or Daniel Sturridge are automatic first choice selections for their clubs and we just look a little light in that department. Nevertheless, Defoe has been amongst the goals in recent weeks and I suspect he'll register for England should he get the nod. It's a cliché but it seems to fit with Jermain that he's at his most dangerous when confident. I see him as the man to profit against the home defence.

When it comes to the crunch, however, the big questions about formation and team selection are for another day as this really should be comfortable for the Three Lions. They can't lose this game. If they do, we might as well give up!

Recommended Bets
Back England to win to nil @ 2.34
Back England to lead at HT @ 1.8
Back Jermain Defoe to score @ evens (if he starts)

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As a Manchester City fan, I'm still on a high from the frenetic end to last season. In my playing career, I was involved in some dramatic title races but I never experienced anything like that final day. City must now consolidate and dominate and, although I'm backing them at 2.3 to retain the title, I think Manchester United will push them close again.


Will Robin van Persie's transfer tip title race?

Robin van Persie's move will have a huge impact on the destiny of the title. I always felt that it would be a bigger deal for United to land RVP than it would be for City because of the array of firepower that is already at Eastlands. If I was pricing up the Premier League market I'd have the Manchester clubs neck and neck. For now, I'm backing my Blues to make it Premier League title number two, but I'll be intrigued to see how RVP fares at Old Trafford and, if he hits the ground running, then it might be time to get on United.


Top four contenders under pressure

Chelsea are buzzing after winning the Champions League but it might prove difficult to transfer that success in to domestic consistency. Roberto Di Matteo has splashed the cash but, while Oscar and Eden Hazard are strong acquisitions, I think they need to improve more in attack than midfield. They looked sluggish in the Community Shield and, although he won the Golden Boot at Euro 2012, I'm not convinced Fernando Torres will fire this season.

Andre Villas-Boas will also be under pressure at Tottenham. A good start is essential and Daniel Levy knows he has taken a gamble by replacing Harry, who was so successful and popular, with a young boss who failed at Chelsea. Credit to AVB - he could have sat on his Chelsea pay off then taken an easier job - and I wish him well. But make no mistake, if Spurs struggle early on, then White Hart Lane will be a cauldron by Christmas.

Things are looking up for the other north London giant. I would say that, but Arsene Wenger has done smart business this summer - and I don't just mean offloading RVP. The Dutchman, as far I'm concerned, was out of Arsenal's plans as soon as he announced his desire to leave in July. Arsenal have lost big players before - Thierry Henry, Patrick Viera, Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri - so they know how to adapt. Lukas Podolski will weigh in with goals and Santiago Cazorla could be the creative catalyst in midfield. It's also very important that my old team-mate Steve Bould has been appointed assistant manager. I expect a season of progress and I'll back the Gunners to finish third.

Liverpool fans have high expectations but Brendan Rogers is under less pressure than AVB. Liverpool's poor performance last season means there's lots of room for improvement. New signing Joe Allen will fit in and the Kop should warm to Rogers' brand of passing football. I'll back Liverpool to crack the top six but they have a long way to go before they're in contention at the top.


Trouble at the bottom

How long can Wigan dodge the bullet? You might as well ask, how long can they hold on to Roberton Martinez? It's the same question. The Spaniard could be a star manager at a big club, he has all the attributes necessary. If Wigan lose him they will go down. Norwich could struggle without Paul Lambert too and, although Brian McDermott has worked wonders with Reading, I'll back them for a swift return to the Championship.


Aguero to carry on where he left off

They will be talking about Sergio Aguero's last gasp winner for decades to come at Eastlands. I'm going to back him to carry that impetus in to the new season and finish as the Premier League's top goalscorer.


Recommended Bets

Back Manchester City @ 2.3 to win the Premier League
Back Arsenal @ 2.74 for a top three finish
Back Liverpool @ 1.68 for a top six finish
Back Wigan @ 2.78 for relegation
Back Norwich @ 2.58 for relegation
Back Reading @ 2.7 for relegation
Back Sergio Aguero @ 8.8 to be Premier League top goalscorer


For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

As the tournament draws to a close, it's worth taking a moment to reflect on what we've experienced and seen over the past three weeks or so in what has been a thoroughly entertaining tournament.

The highs

In terms of the organisation of the tournament, Poland and Ukraine had a huge task on their hands but I think they coped pretty well. Neither has had much experience of putting on a show like this but they did as well as they could. All the talk of widespread hooliganism and racism never materialised and while there were odd instances of violence amongst some rival fans they were just isolated incidents rather symptomatic of a widespread problem. As for the football itself, it's been excellent. Few could argue with the fact that the four best teams in the competition are the last four standing. There has been little or no controversy (the Ukranian goal that never was probably wouldn't have made a difference anyway) regarding refereeing decisions so that's a good thing too.

The lows

My biggest disappointment comes as an England fan, not a football fan. It was glaringly obvious that the key to stopping Italy was to stop Andrea Pirlo. But England either missed a trick there or never managed to execute the plan. If it were me, I would have had Steven Gerrard man-mark him for the whole match. Not only could he have kept Pirlo quiet but it would inevitably have meant Gerrard being higher up the pitch himself, which is where I like to see him.

The Player Of the Tournament

Alan Dzagoev caught the eye early on but he, just like Russia, faded during their last group game and that was the last we saw of them. I'm not sure how many years Andryi Shevchenko has left in him as a professional footballer (he's already retired from internationals) but for one night only he reminded the footballing world what he was all about with two goals that got the whole of the Ukraine celebrating and believing. Unfortunately that's as good as it got for both Andryi and the Ukraine but whereas he doesn't get my vote for best player, he gets the sentimental vote.

Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Xabi Alonso have all been excellent but if we're honest they've been excellent in a collective rather than individual way. Harsh on Alonso perhaps, who scored Spain's two goals on Saturday, but he doesn't quite make the cut.

So it's Cristiano Ronaldo who gets my vote. He's the one player who has taken the tournament by the scruff of the neck and shone with moments of individual brilliance. There are three huge games to go and therefore opportunities for someone else to make their mark on Euro 2012 but for the time being it's the Madrid man in pole position.

The Bets

Spain are hovering around the 2.0 mark to win tonight and if you decide to back them you have plenty of stats in your favour. They are the current World Champions, the defending European champions, they beat Portugal 1-0 at the last World Cup and they have conceded just one goal in four matches this tournament, less than anyone else. Yet somehow there are enough doubts in my mind about Spain to make me want to back Portugal.

I think Spain's defence is yet to be tested by a potent attack and certainly haven't had to face anyone with the individual brilliance of Cristiano Ronaldo. Their passing game might throw up all sorts of absurd statistics that make our friends at Opta drool but for me they don't create as many clear-cut chances as they should.

So far this tournament has pretty much gone to form and I just think something has to give. Football betting is based on choosing the value selections and Portugal just look too big at 4.7. 2-1 would be my idea of a correct score at a huge 19.5.

The second semi is more clear cut. I picked Germany to go all the way before the start and though that 4.5 is long gone, I wouldn't put anyone off going in at 2.74 at this stage. Italy created a lot of chances against England and I think they'll take at least one of them on Thursday night. That's unlikely to be enough though against a German team that won comfortably in the quarters, allowed themselves the luxury of resting three key players and had two more days' rest, in addition to having the match sewn up in 90 minutes, whereas Italy needed 120 and penalties. It's Germany for me, also with a 2-1 scoreline.

Back Germany to win Euro 2012 @ 2.74
Back Portugal to beat Spain @ 4.7
Back Portugal to win 2-1 @ 19.5
Back Germany to beat Italy @ 1.97
Back Germany to beat Italy 2-1 @ 10.0

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

England are safely through to the quarter-finals after topping their group against the odds. Here are the main talking points ahead of their quarter-final with Italy.


The draw

There's always a tendency to get ahead of yourself and try to work out who you will be playing at each stage. Apparently Roy Hodgson was watching the Spain match on Monday night live on TV and now has to watch videos of Italy's game.

The consensus is that England have done well to avoid Spain but personally I don't think there's a huge amount in it. Italy have been better than many would have expected, Spain not quite as good as many expected. They've kept a lot of possession as ever but don't always make the best use of it. Italy are a bit more of an unknown quantity in terms of how they'll play and all in all it was probably a case of being between the devil and the deep blue sea.


England team selection

Ashley Young has perhaps been the biggest disappointment from amongst the England players who have featured. He's been played in the hole and on the left and hasn't really impressed in either position. More worryingly, when played on the left he hasn't defended particularly well and that could be a problem against Italy. In the international game a right-sided player doesn't always appear in conventional positions. At times Young hasn't known who to track and has left Ashley Cole exposed.

Despite that, I think Hodgson will stick with the same XI that won against the Ukraine.


Italy

The loss of Giorgio Chiellini is huge. He's Italy's most experienced defender and the best guy they have in the air. England have scored three goals from headers so far and with him missing, it could be four. Daniele De Rossi will probably fill in for him at the back, having already played the first two matches there. He's done pretty well but I can imagine Wayne Rooney pulling him out of position. De Rossi often finds his way into the referees' notebook as it is and given he'll be playing in a position he's not too accustomed to, I can see him being booked here, a match that is likely to have a few cards anyway.

All eyes on Mario Balotelli. He's made some decent contributions so far but its' anyone's guess whether playing against his Manchester City team-mates will bring out the best or the worst in him.


The Bets

First up, I think this will be a low-scoring match. Italy are more attacking than some might have expected but they're hardly Barcelona. The tendency against both Croatia and Spain was to defend what they had once they went ahead. Old habits die hard.

England are good at the back in general, though they did allow Ukraine more chances than they would have liked. And I don't think there's much between these two on paper. So 0-0 and 1-1 are genuine runners in the correct score market. But the draw is already covered in my next bet to an extent so we'll keep things simple here and just have a play on under 2.5 goals at 1.52n/a.

This could go all the way. Harry (Redknapp) has already said as much. But I just have a feeling that Roy is having a little bit of luck just now. Ukraine's goal that never was, Theo Walcott's strike against Sweden that moved in the air. If it came to that, this might just be the time that England finally come out on top in a shoot-out. At odds of 10.09/1 you're not paying a premium to find out.


Back Daniele De Rossi to be shown a card @ 3.3
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.55
Back England to win on penalties @ 10.0


For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

The biggest positive from the Sweden match was obviously the result. Over the course of a long season a manager will look at the performances as much as the results because you can't keep on getting results over the course of nine or 10 months without playing well. But in a tournament like this, one bad result, however well you played, is normally enough to send you home. So England will take those three points and not worry too much about how they got them.

The other big positive from the match was the spirit the England players showed. At 2-1 down they were going out. And they weren't passing the ball that well and having long spells of pressure so a comeback looked pretty unlikely. But they showed belief, togetherness and fighting spirit and in the end were probably just about good value for the win.

On the downside England defended really poorly, especially for the second goal. You can't leave a notoriously good header of the ball like Olof Mellberg unmarked in the box like that and there will have been an inquiry regarding who was meant to be picking him up. England got away with one there but they'll have to make sure it doesn't happen again.

I don't think there's a single England fan who doesn't think Wayne Rooney should come straight into the team after his suspension. He made a mistake, he served his time and he's now ready and raring to go. Andy Carroll scored a super goal against Sweden and made a nuisance of himself but if it's a straight choice between him and Danny Welbeck (which it is) for who makes way, it's got to be Carroll. Not only do Rooney and Welbeck know each other's game well from playing together at Manchester United but I've been impressed with his movement and energy so far this tournament. Hes' always prepared to make runs into space even when he doesn't get given the ball much. And he's not just a hard-working forward; he won England the game with a clever finish against Sweden and we saw him score all manner of goals for United this campaign. England obviously lose Carroll's greater aerial threat if he doesn't figure but I think partnering the two United men together is the right thing to do.

I've never been in a dressing room where the manager has told the players they're playing for a draw. A point is of course all England need from this match but if you go out with that mindset you can become overly negative and confused with your approach to the game. The 'a draw will do us fine' mentality certainly isn't the one that Roy Hodgson will be trying to get through to his players. They'll go out with a gameplan to try to win the game. But if it's a draw with ten minutes to go then England won't be going for broke to try to find a winner either. That's just common sense.

I think England will win this match as it happens. 2.221/1 may not be everyone's idea of a good price on a team that doesn't actually need to win but let's remember the prize on offer if England do win. If France fail to win and England do, they'll top the group. The Three Lions also top the group if both win and England end up with a better goal average. And we all know what the prize is if they do top the group: they avoid the winner of Group B, who in all likelihood will be Spain. And I think England can win without conceding this time.

Andryi Shevchenko is the only reason why Ukraine have something to play for, his two goals against Sweden were absolutely priceless. But he's no spring chicken anymore and even without mentioning the knock he's carrying, three matches in the space of 12 days is extremely tiring for anyone. I think Andryi Voronin is a good player but I don't see that he's going to give this England defence too torrid a time. Assuming England defend better from set pieces I see no reason why they can't finally keep a clean sheet so 1-0 (9.4) and 2-0 (12.5) are my ideas of a scoreline.

Football isn't always such a romantic game. I have the cuts, bruises and scars to show it and my family can vouch for the fact that not every Saturday night throughout my career was a cheery one. it certainly wasn't when my team got beat earlier in the day. But sometimes football does have these storylines that would make for a good film. At a tournament I actually think it's harder on a squad player who knows he's very unlikely to get a game than it is on someone like Wayne Rooney, who was suspended. It's easier to know you're definitely not going to play but that you definitely will when you're available again. The other advantage he has of course is that he'll be fresher than anyone else. He will have been training hard since he joined up with England and will be sharp but his legs will have far less miles in them. He's a must to score at anytime at 2.9.


Back England to win @ 2.2
Back 1-0 England @ 9.4 and 2-0 England @ 12.5
Back Wayne Rooney to score at anytime @ 2.9


For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

The general consensus after the draw with France is that England were a little better than we expected but have a lot of improving to do if they're to be serious contenders to win this.

I don't think many people would be backing us to beat Germany in a knock-out match the way Jogi Low's team are playing. Russia have looked impressive going forward even though they haven't been tested that much at the back and Italy could be pretty tough to beat, too. And you can say what you like about Spain not playing a striker but the way they pass the ball and move, the system they go with may become pretty immaterial. I still think Germany are the team to beat though and that England's price of 14.5 looks about right.

Team selection

I don't think England can beat one of the big guns if they continue with the same system, even when Wayne Rooney comes back. Giving the opposition possession for so much of the game is incredibly tiring, especially for the midfield men. Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker were spent at the end of the game.

I think Roy Hodgson will go with the same XI provided everyone recovered ok from the first game. If it were me, I'd be tempted to do one of two things. Either play Ashley Young on the right wing, bring James Milner into the middle and have Steven Gerrard play closer to Danny Welbeck. Or bring in Theo Walcott on the right (for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain), play Ashley Young on the left and again ask Gerrard to be more of threat going forward, whilst still providing an extra body in the middle of the park. Let's see what Roy decides to do.

Match Odds/Draw/No Bet

We say it every time Sweden play but their destiny could very much depend on which Zlatan Ibrahimovic shows up. We know for certain that they'll try to give him as much of the ball as they possibly can. If he's on-song and makes things happen England could have a really tough night ahead of them. But that's a big if because he looked a little sulky in the first match despite scoring and laid into his team-mates at the end of it. That's Zlatan for you.

We're all aware of Sweden's strong record against England but this is a powerful back four England have at the moment. Only Ashley Cole isn't really a big, solid lad so any of the physical threats Sweden may have posed in the past may be a little less relevant this time round.

This should be a pretty close match but it's one I just can't see England losing. By backing England in the draw/no bet market you get paid out at 1.6 if they win and get your money back if it ends draw.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

I think the story of England's tournament will be that however well or badly they do from here on, they won't score or concede more than one goal in any game. They're a well-organised team at the back but they don't really send too many men forward when they have the ball. It was no surprise their goal came from a set-piece. I don't mean any disrespect to Roy or the boys when I say that they're unlikely to be one of the more entertaining teams at the tournament. But neither were Greece in 2004, were they?

1-0 or 2-0 England are lively runners in this match. But if the goals don't come by the middle of the second-half it may just be that both teams decide to go for broke in their last group match than taking too many risks in this one. That would bring 0-0 into the equation. Any of these outcomes would see under 2.5 goals pay out at 1.74.

To be shown a card

The aforementioned Ibrahimovic played a lot deeper against the Ukraine than we are used to seeing him play at club level. They obviously think he can be more involved in the game from that position. What it means is that the responsibility to pick him up falls to one of the central midfielders rather than the centre-backs and that probably means Scott Parker. He'll need to cover a lot of ground and may be forced into making the odd challenge on Ibrahimovic (or others) when they run with the ball in that space between the midfield and England's box. Fatigue will play a big part late on in the game as well and I wouldn't be to surprised if the Spurs man finds his name in the ref's book sooner or later.

1 pts England Draw/No Bet @ 1.6
2 pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74
2 pts Back Scott Parker to be shown a card @ 2.8

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