LeeDixon

First things first. QPR were extremely unlucky to have had that penalty awarded against them on Sunday afternoon, which saw Shaun Derry sent off in the process. I was watching the referee closely as Ashley Young went tumbling in the box and Lee Mason was almost blowing his whistle and taking out his red card before Young hit the deck. It was like he'd almost decided that it was a penalty and a sending-off before it even happened. All very bizarre.

But if we're being honest, United would almost certainly have won the match anyway. They're just about the most in-form side in the division, were at home and had started much the stronger. The result of it all is that Rangers are now without a key player for this match and that the other nine outfield players who were left on the pitch had to work that much harder for the reminder of the game to make up for Derry's absence. But Premier League managers are paid good money to solve problems and make the best out of difficult situations. That concept won't be lost on Mark Hughes.


Match odds

A lot was said about how QPR had the toughest run-in of all the relegation-threatened sides. This home tie against Swansea is one of the matches that Hughes would have identified as must-win. Not only because of the three points but also because of the momentum and the belief that would come with the win and would help their cause no ends when they travel to West Brom at the weekend.

This may actually be the best possible time to play Swansea. For starters they're on their worst run of form all season and have lost their last three matches. It may just be that they peaked a month or two ago and that the rigours of playing in the Premier League are starting to catch up with them. They have a smallish squad and Brendan Rodgers doesn't like to shuffle his pack too much so it's inevitable that some of the players will be feeling quite tired. They've almost certainly done enough already to stay in the division and will be confident that upcoming home matches against Blackburn and Wolves will yield enough points to make sure they're mathematically safe.

The key to stopping Swansea is to do exactly what both Everton and Newcastle did when they beat them at the Liberty Stadium: upset their passing rhythm. And you do that by pressing high up the field and stopping the supply to Swansea's central midfielders. That means a lot of hard work for QPR's front men in terms of closing down defenders so whoever plays upfront will need to understand that Wednesday night will be as much about that as it will be about scoring goals.

This match is probably do-or-die for QPR and I have a feeling they'll get the win here, even if I'm not convinced they'll actually avoid the drop, whether they pick up three points or not. But to do that they'll have to keep their discipline. Derry's sending-off at the weekend may have been extremely unlucky but the other six red cards they've been shown this season (which makes them the team with the most dismissals this season in the Premier League as Opta tell us) were probably justified. There can't be a repeat of that here.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a high-scoring game. QPR will be probably be happy to defend a 1-0 lead if they go ahead and Swansea rarely score too many away from home themselves. They did get three away at Craven Cottage a few weeks back but that was very much the exception to the rule and a case of Fulham just having a really bad day the office. Under 2.5 goals is a confident selection at 1.93.


First Goalscorer

If we think this is going to be a low-scoring game it makes more sense to predict who will open the scoring than to go for a player to score at anytime. Bobby Zamora was left out of the starting line-up at Old Trafford which could be an indication that Hughes was desperate to have the target man fresh for this game. The ex-Fulham man has been good at leading the line, most of the time having to try and create something for himself given the service hasn't been great, and I think he could be the hero for QPR here.


Recommended Bets

2 pts Back QPR to win at 2.18
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.93
1 pt Back Bobby Zamora to be first goalscorer @ 7.5


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