Saturday's selections - Torrential rain due

15.10 - Heathfield 1.5 points EW at 7/1 (Lads)

16.25 -Pettite Parisienne 1.25 points win at 9/2 (PP)
16.25 -Business Sivola    1.25 points win at 9/2 (Bet 365)



Results IR
Total points staked:   34.9
Total points returned: 50.48 (incl R.4)
Profit:                15.58
ROI:                   45%

As a matter of interest, where did you see those prices Wildman? Dixie?

Will update the running totals in the morning (not that they will be painting a pretty picture)

Final Day Selections:
3:10 Bothair Clei 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (1/4 Odds 4 Places BV)
4:25 Qualando 4pts win @ 7/2 (Boyles)
5:00 Gallant Oscar 3pts win @ 11/2 (BV)

The price is already gone so I won't be getting involved but Whispering Storm is allegedly gone by in the bumper. It was just starting to rain when I left the track in it looked to be down for the night so ground could be much softer than today come race time.

I took 850 out of Blood Cotil and still lost on the day! Reminds me of Wildmans adventures at the curragh.

He was very good as was Nichols Canyon. Sempre Medici looked like he did't stay. I would be very interested in him for the Galway Hurdle. Max Dynamite was a disaster. Sold out on him at 10/3 and 11/4. Good crowd today though it was pretty bloody cold for first day of May. I've been warmer attending the John Durkan!

Qualando is my bet of the week against a motley crew of Irish horses so hopefully Sir Paul can come to the rescue.

What price Katie T without the favourite ?

I don't like without the favourite betting,taking a short price in those markets is madness.
Katie T is some improver I think she will make Annie Power go.
If there were eight runners it would be 140 each way but we will have to settle for the below.

Katie T 35 points each way & 7/1

I'm tempted.

You want Katie T to loaf around at the back of the field and come with a late run,that would make the 10/11 generous.
What you don't want is Katie T to get involved in a cut throat battle with Annie Power,if that were to happen she could get beaten off and caught on the line by some staying on lesser beast.

You have hit the nail on the head Wildman in respect of "Betting Without" markets. Typically these markets have horses shorter than they would be if the fav wasn't in the race. You also have the added issue of the fav likely having a big impact on the outcome of the race even if they don't affect the result in these markets. Occasionally they can offer some value but the majority of the time they are shaky markets to be getting involved in.

As regards Katie T, they have adopted more patient tactics with her all season (I recall she was handy enough in last years race). This is also the preferred style for Brian Hughes. I imagine she will be held up with Annie making the running and he will make a move between the two hurdles before the turn in.

Across the water, Carpe Diem has a massive massive chance in the Kentucky Derby tonight. He's 10's with PP & Lads (who are paying 1/4 odds 4 places). The ex-Richard Fahey horse Sandiva will win an earlier race there. Jockey went a minute too soon when just nutted in her last run by today's main rival.

Running Total After Day Four:
Total Staked - 34pts
Total Returns - 16.07pts (applied 5 cent rule 4 on Blood Cotil)

Katie T is 2.2 a place on here. May back Analifet myself. Katie will have to improve to beat her. And more chance of Analifet being ridden for seond.

Total Staked: 44pts
Total Returned: 34.75pts

Fairly poor week. Best regards to those who turned a profit on any scale.

Very well done dj876, a good show from you for the week. If it was Wonky ,Wildman or Pa put up them horses then the rosettes would have been flying.

16 winners for wp mullins, must of been a very difficult week, plus throw in all the other bankers at the meeting that are not trained by the great man himself, the irish forumites who still dont like JEZKI

Well Done DJ. It had been a very trying week for punters up until yesterday in my book.

Widman it's self evident that ROI is the only correct measure. It levels the playing field when you have people using farcical staking plans. In any event, you made up prices for the two winners on Friday.

I would expect it to be 1% of the original bank. I wouldn't think that the value of a "point" would be a moveable feast.

Nicholls Canyon was 11/10 with four different bookmakers so hardly made up.

I think there is an argument to look at it both ways, TTK.....as your bank grows, so should your average stake, and vice versa.

Borneo, I stll chuckle the day when Pa was up 11 points after a month of staking....you proclaimed that his ROI was 1100% as he had eleven times more in his pocket than when he started.


ROI %  =  Profit (or Loss) / Total Points Staked x 100

I suppose that is true Ozy. The way I look at it though is that a horse is worth the same stake whether you are going well or going bad.

Come on now Mincer you should know my record with you was phenomenal,you had to leave the forum over a bet against me.

You also know that I encouraged your boss in no uncertain terms to have his life on Yorkhill at Punchestown.

Ye can squirm all ye like but my points total was far and away the highest,even using your own formula I still won as 82.14% exceeds DJ876 80.49%
Whichever way ye look on it I won.

It's not "my own formula". It's basic maths. ROI is the only true measure of a gamblers success. If you don't clear 5% ROI annually then you're better off not punting as its a poor use of cash. That's another basic enough point.

What would you have said if one of us had six thousand points on Annie Power?

Your final return is skewed by phantom prices which certainly weren't available when you posted. I don't really mind who won as I'm more worried about my own negative return. Bit sad to see the spoofery though.

The phantom prices were Nichols Canyon and Bolger's. Neither existed when you posted them. It's somewhat hypocritical after getting stuck into DJ on same earlier in the thread.

I only used prices after I had already taken them myself.

You're making it sound like I'm trying to do you when it's simply a case of stating the facts as they stand. You do love to present yourself as the impinged upon alright.

WD Borneo,

Did you manage to turn a profit on the week ?

None of my prices were dubious and all can be verified by the times on oddschecker, if you're too lazy to avail of these prices that's fair enough. We live in an innovative age and you either adopt and evolve or die.

I wasn't in a competition with anyone as always stated on this thread apart from the books.

For your own accounts,Yorkhill was 5/4 with hours before you posted,Nicholas Canyon was 4/6 and on the fringe was 1/2.

How did the much hailed Gob**** fair out?

He was demanding scores earlier on this thread in an attempt to embarrass,I think it was approximately minus 500 points.

His tip of Boston Bob on another thread was much revealing,my 12 year old nephew was able to tell me that the new staying chasers were at least a stone better than on his own,Boston bob etc

Its not laziness it's knowing those prices are not for me.

Nicholls Canyon was never best priced 4/6.

The Gotchee entered into the spirit of the thing,he was showing a huge profit but ending up losing but like your claim about Nicholls Canyons price wildly inaccurate.