A short paragraph in today's Racing Post announcing the return from injury of Liz Lalor probably accounts for today's mannah from heaven. She mentioned that she was afraid the "ground had gone" on Carrigeen Lechuga but I simply couldn't agree based on the mare's point and track form. The win perfectly illustrates my approach to betting and taking the opposite view to the market. A friend of mine even backed her in running at odds of 20/1.

Tomorrow sees a few of my pointers take each other on in one of the Kempton bumpers (if it survives) at 2.40pm with Hard To Swallow likely to be well-fancied over Bobcatbilly and Glenwood Present. I really love the developing profile of Hard To Swallow and he's most likely to be improving all the time over hurdles (say no more!). Henderson's horse will start favourite but, arguably, Hard To Swallow has better bumper form although I will only be watching. It may be a good idea to run these "jumpers' bumpers" to beat the cold snap but it surely plays havoc with well-laid plans.

Martin Keighley also runs Court In Session in the 3.15 race and this is an ideal race to run the horse in given he messed up running him back so quickly last November. It should set him up nicely for another day.

I started this thread highlighting my success in unearthing Run With The Wind to win on the flat at 33/1 (and much higher)at Listowel last September (even Hourigan didn't think he could win that day) and I have him marked down for some nice hurdle races as spring arrives. He's in at Dundalk, where his flat ability first came to my attention, tomorrow night but I am not too interested in him as a betting proposition as a) he's likely to be short, b) 12 furlongs might be a shade sharp c) I hope it's a prep race (with the run needed) for spring hurdling and d) my brain isn't functioning in flat-mode as yet.

It was alluded to in that piece on Liz Lalor that she was more hopeful of getting on the scoreboard this weekend in Askeaton where two other mares with the Carrigeen prefix have excellent chances.

Boss Croaker-2007 Craigsteel g (Robert Tyner)

A race that just since 2007 has produced Paul Kristian, Bensalem, Master Of The Hall, Marathon Leader, Crash, Carlicue, Ballyegan,  Please Talk and, last but not least, Marble House is worth taking special note of as all the foregoing track winners won various divisions of the 4yo maiden run at Dromahane run on New Year’s Eve.

This year it produced Ballybough Pat to win the first division and division two saw a very strong favourite in Pat Doyle’s Westaway who fell three from home but who has since won his maiden at Kilfeacle beating a horse (Cottiers Den)that has since won HIS maiden at Ballinaboola so the form looks very solid. Ballybough Pat changed hands recently at Brightwells for £38,000 and when I learn of his new trainer in England you’ll be the first to know!

The highest rated winner to come from the two divisions was Boss Croaker and he looks a very nice prospect for Robert Tyner and his owners who hail from Clonakilty. I cannot let the misnaming (by Corkmen!) of the horse go without comment as the real Boss Croker was a larger than life Corkman who made his name in Tammany Hall in New York and famously owned the 1907 Derby winner Orby.

A fifth foal (well bought as a 3yo for €6,000); only a half-sister has managed to appear in silks finishing third in a point. The dam (by Over The River-a noted stamina influence) was unraced but she is a half-sister to two useful Supreme Leader  winners in Oliver Sherwood’s bumper/2m3f-2m6f hurdle/chase winner Mount Sandel and Tom Mullin’s 2m hurdle/2m4f mares Listed chase winner Court Leader out of sister to high-class hurdler Mighty Mogul (87 Good Thyne g) who was a good two-miler for David Nicholson (won a Gerry Felden and Christmas hurdle) and two other jumps winners.

Naas (soft-heavy) 1.15pm 2m 4-5yo maiden hurdle 5, 11-12 Philip Enright

Tyner can train hurdlers to win at the first time of asking and Oscars Business and Whatwillwecallher are recent examples but the overall strike rate is just 6.5% or 5/77. The trainer jockey combination are 1 (One In A Milan) from 11 at Naas (two seconds) since 2006. The stats aren’t hugely encouraging but they do offer some prospects.

I expect that it will be about the market tomorrow in what overall doesn’t look a particularly strong maiden. The point-to-point people were impressed with his Dromahane win and he wouldn’t be the first maiden winner to surprise connections first-time-out on the track. If he had changed hands and was now plying his trade in England I think I'd be far more interested tomorrow.

So many horses, so little time!

If we all had the choice of sisters-in-law I expect that there would be a lot of fractured marriages out there so a less risky wish might be for the dream brother-in-law-with apologies to readers of the fairer sex here. The Enniscorthy trainer, Shay Slevin, boasts the Master Of Ballydoyle as his brother-in-law and is training one of progeny from Aidan’s breeding company’s (Whisperview Trading) in the shape of the Hawk Wing 6yo Dylan Villen. When Dylan Villen won in Bennetsbridge last February it was the first point winner for his sire Hawk Wing. Public records don’t record if any filthy lucre changed hands when the horse moved home from Tipperary/Kilkenny to Wexford.

Coming initially from such august quarters one can expect that Dylan Villen to have a good pedigree and he doesn’t disappoint! He is a half-brother to four winners including three over jumps and the French family, tracing back to Allez France, is packed with speed with the dam being listed placed in France.

His grief-stricken point win (yielding-soft) stands up to reasonable scrutiny with the second and fourth managing to win maidens and the latter, Listen Boy, has shown decent placed form over hurdles for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Dylan Villen had a spin in a bumper in late November finishing 5th of 11-beaten 15L-at 20/1. It now looks a good bumper with Eddie O’Grady’s Leopardstown bumper winner, The Way We Were, finishing second and Liz Doyle’s bumper/hurdle winner, Mini Vic, in sixth. Dylan Villen's run caught the eye of the Racing Post race-reader.

Naas (soft-heavy) 2.25pm 5+ 2m3f maiden hurdle 6, 11-12 P Enright

I think the back story to this horse is intriguing and it will be interesting to see how Slevin handles the horse. I am particularly interested in him today because Slevin is having a very good run with his pointing runners having trained two winners in recent weeks so his horses are in rude health. It’s a couple of years since Slevin trained a track winner but I suspect that Dylan Villen could improve that statistic before too long.

On an appropriate weekend I say: Vive La France!

John Quinn had a bad day losing his hurdler in the juvenile event and seeing the well-fancied Moonlight Drive just fail to score in a bobbing finish to the handicap hurdle. As the trainer had said that the horse shows lots of speed at home it was surprising he was outsprinted on the home turn and when he eventually picked up looked certain to score jumping the last. Perhaps the almost two month break and tacky ground told against him. His best run and only win came at Wetherby and perhaps a more galloping track might suit on slightly better ground. He’s relatively unexposed and there’s surely a nice handicap in him.

Boss Croaker ran as if he hadn’t been out of his box for a month and was being coaxed along after a hurdle or two. I’d like to think his innate ability managed to see him finish the race. He was completely unfancied. I note that his sire, Craigsteel (first crop are 8yo’s) produces most of his winners from two to two-and-a-half miles on going descriptions that include “good”.

I was regretting not having a few speculative euro at 90 on Dylan Villen about half-a-mile from home in the other maiden hurdle but whereas he jumped upsides at the second last the distress signals were evident by then. It was a run that promised more and he remains very much of interest. His sire, Hawk Wing, has been banished to Korea of all places but he has produced jumps winners including Lethal Weapon.

Mister First won with his head in his chest and proved once again the value of experience in the hurly burly of handicaps. He’ll get a hefty penalty but looks as if he’ll win again.

EW TALKINTHESTREET  FOR ME  REV4CAST BABY SHINE

Oh dear,what was Elsworth trying to do there? Tried to go up the inside not once but twice-was he not aware of the rails ahead of him?

cost me a packet the clown.

That 4th horse Thomas Crapper was no 50/1 shot (finished as good as Baby S.)

I smiled ruefully last night reading Ben Hutton in the Racing Post when his "punting high" was "I got in a bit of a huff with the game a week ago so haven't had a bet since."

Oftentimes it's said that a punter's winning streaks come in short, sharp bursts and I really should have been on watch following Carrigeen Lechuga's cracking win last week. Over the weekend I had studied various angles only to lose out to the weather so it was only half-heartedly I checked Sunday's runners when Hereford and Exeter were lost. My tracker returned six runners and included Glen Countess (winning at an amazing 7/2 at Southwell), Salsify 11/1 (won some lovely contests last season) and Martin's winner at 50/1. I'm not after-timing highlighting Benefficient but time and again the strategy of following these winning maidens throws up winners when the market least expects it. In order to get the price a lot of forgiving has to happen but it happens more regularly than one might expect. I regularly mention these monster prices and thanks to Betfair they are all too true.

Punting Baby Shine yesterday didn't improve my humour but she may well give me a good day out at a top-class meeting before too long.

Another winner well done, great stuff.

1st  Leighinmohr (IRE) (1) 7/2 Tote £5.00 £1.70

2nd nk Nemi (CZE) (4) 8/1   £2.20
3rd 2 ¾L Makari (GB) (2) 5/4fav   £1.10
4th 11L Indian Voyage (IRE) (9) 25/1

Except that I have just noticed that DOC didn't ride it today

doc broke his leg in the hunters chase..

RoyalAcademy 17 Jan 12 22:41
....Finally I only mention the beaten favourite Makethe Mostofnow because he must be owned by Catch Me ifyoucan!

Presume that was a reference to the NAPS table - "mid-division on inside, headway 3rd, went 2nd briefly 3 out, weakened before next, tailed off" - (time to look again RA )

Anyways, runs again 2pm Sunday in his fav Ffos Las (CD) in a little 2m.4f. Hdl against - Romanesco (ex Potts/Henry De Brom.), Benheir (also CD winner) and Loose Chips (2nd under DOC in Inch ptp).

RoyalAcademy 10 Feb 12 19:11
Boss Croaker-2007 Craigsteel g (Robert Tyner)

A race that just since 2007 has produced Paul Kristian, Bensalem, Master Of The Hall, Marathon Leader, Crash, Carlicue, Ballyegan,  Please Talk and, last but not least, Marble House is worth taking special note of as all the foregoing track winners won various divisions of the 4yo maiden run at Dromahane run on New Year’s Eve.

RA,
Just see Carlicue (Nicholls) ran 3rd today in his first H/cap Chase (3m in 3.05 at Fakenham).

Impressed by Caminero when I was at Maralin in November - good to see him run well today and sure there's plenty more to come from him.

Snowdon seems to be getting a better quality of horse these days too - trainer on the up.

No shortage of possibilities today but Kilcrea and Harpsy Chord are two of the more obvious:

14-Dec
Kilcrea-2007 g Definite Article (Jimmy Mangan)

Thursday: Gowran Park (soft) 1.05pm 4yo 2m maiden hurdle 11-7 Paddy Mangan (3)

Kilcrea grabbed the headlines when he won a youngsters maiden under Jamie Codd at Ballindenisk (good-yielding) last May for Mangan. A couple of maiden winners have graduated from the race but it looks as it it’s up to Kilcrea to advance the form under rules. He is owned by the same connections of Kilcrea Castle who was a nice horse for Pat Doyle. Mangan admitted to being surprised by the win as he believed he would need more time but predicted a “bright future” for him.

Predominantly, the family is a French flat line and Kilcrea’s dam was originally owned by Chryss O’Reilly and raced in France with no success. She was a half-sister to a 10f winner. Kilcrea is her fourth foal and is a full brother to a dual point winner in England. John Carr raced another half-brother but he wasn’t any good.

This is quite an average race tomorrow and it would be no surprise to see Kilcrea running well. The likely favourite, Tabhachtach, could possibly pay the form of Talkonthestreet another compliment. Mangan trained three winners over the past two months so he is ticking over but I cannot trace him training a hurdles winner at Gowran in ten years, a remark that similarly applies to his jockey son. My idea of the ideal campaign for this horse is a nice “sighter” tomorrow to be followed by a Limerick maiden hurdle on their usual atrocious ground conditions over Christmas.

15-Dec

Kilcrea ran exactly as I hoped and it was very eye-catching to me. Moderately fancied in a weak event (he was probably told to "win if you can but don't hit the horse") it suits me fine that the Racing Post are talking down the race in general. I think his turn is also very close.

28-Dec

Kilcrea (J Mangan): Jimmy Mangan tried his best to provide his daughter, Jane, with a Christmas winner in the shape of Kilcrea in the St. Stephen’s Day Limerick bumper. Well-backed to do so, they were unlucky to catch the Mikey O’Connor tartar in the shape of Clonbanan Lad (winner of a Boulta maiden in November) who looks a nice horse. One way or another Kilcrea will be winning before very long as he finished 15L clear of the third.

Clonbanon Lad was gone on to win a winners’ event at Naas and looks a good prospect and the fourth home, Lamb Or Cod has collected a Thurles maiden hurdle. All in all Kilcrea looks to have a favourite’s chance of scoring today. If I back him individually I might save my stake on the Gigginstown runner.


[i]11-Jan

Harpsy Cord: runs over fences for first time today (1.30 2m5f100yds beginners’ chase) for Jim Dreaper and Alan Potts. His pedigree suggests he is a chaser as his dam is a half-sister to Visible Difference who won the Drinmore (2m4f) in 1993 for Paddy Heffernan and the granddam is a half-sister to Nicky Henderson’s 1993 Arkle winner Travado.

When he won his maiden hurdle at Limerick Dreaper said:

He´s a grand horse for next year. Sam Curling produced him and he was a ready made horse when he came to us. I imagine one more run over hurdles will be enough and he´ll go chasing in October. He´s a lovely mover on an all-weather gallop so I would say he´ll handle any ground.

And later

Harpsy Cord ran reasonably well today (27L third) against Rathlin (came in for sustained support from those with, perhaps, excess faith in Lord Jim with a debutant) and can be expected to improve significantly for the run. Although I must admit my enthusiasm for him was a little dented after he turned for home as I hoped he had the class to stay on a little more strongly than he did. (Ideally, he'd be beaten 5L in third and Securicor could be booked in advance.)

31-Jan

Opposing Willie Mullin’s odds-on shots is hardly a recommended strategy and it’s rather a pity that Harpsy Cord meets something of Soll’s apparent class tomorrow-Down Royal (heavy) 1.35pm 2m4f beginners chase. I liked the fencing debut of Harpsy Cord and it seemed to be a question of needing the run after an eight-month break as he travelled well throughout the Fairyhouse beginners’ chase over 2m6f (soft-heavy) and just seemed to tire over the second last. He was beaten by the resurgent Rathlin who is a sharp enough tool now that he’s had half his throat removed. Jim Dreaper has a very useful record with both chasing debutants (25%) and those having their second run (20%) and Harpsy Cord would be following in a decent tradition set by Jim, Telenor, Notre Pere and Royal De La Thinte (I really hope this horse gets over whatever ails him) if he could win tomorrow.

This is what I posted prior to his jumping bow and it certainly makes the horse capable of a big run on pedigree:

“Harpsy Cord: runs over fences for first time today (1.30 2m5f100yds beginners’ chase) for Jim Dreaper and Alan Potts. His pedigree suggests he is a chaser as his dam is a half-sister to Visible Difference who won the Drinmore (2m4f) in 1993 for Paddy Heffernan and the granddam is a half-sister to Nicky Henderson’s 1993 Arkle winner Travado.

When he won his maiden hurdle at Limerick Dreaper said:

He´s a grand horse for next year. Sam Curling produced him and he was a ready made horse when he came to us. I imagine one more run over hurdles will be enough and he´ll go chasing in October. He´s a lovely mover on an all-weather gallop so I would say he´ll handle any ground.”

I expect him to beat Aitmatov who was second to Harpsy Cord’s Fairyhouse third the last day and I am certainly tempted to have a rare enough flutter on this lad tomorrow. It should be possible to cover your stake as he should be at least placed. He’s up there with a relatively small band of horses that have made a favourable impression on me out of the dozens of point winners from the 2010/11 season and he’ll surely pay his way this year and into the future.

1-Feb

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (

Don't know why this hasn't posted in full:

I think I made a fairly accurate call on Harpsy Cord earlier (

I know Iknow posters on here will have their own views on my view, and my view is, I dont overly like backing the girls in bumpers, with the obvious two Nina+Katie being the exceptions and while Jane has had a few winners but I just think I will skip the bumper and go with the other one and AE Lynch as he is in a great run of form/winners/confidence....... best of luck to Kilcrea backers and the legal eagles