Jarob-2007 g Beat All (Andrew Lynch)

Fairyhouse (soft-heavy) 2.35pm 4+ 2m4f maiden hurdle 5, 11-09 Robbie Colgan

There is a nice background story behind this horse and he seems to be slipping in under the analyst’s radar a little tomorrow.

His dam, by Leading Counsel, is related to two winners and his sire, Beat All, has sired some minor national hunt winning performers.

Jarob won a division of the Ballinaboola 4yo maiden in November run on soft going for Trevor Horgan. This meeting, run in the past at Lingstown, has been a useful yardstick and in recent years this particular maiden has produced Alfa Beat, Sea Of Thunder and Burren Bridge. Jarob was subsequently sold at Brightwells for €80,000 (very decent return on €7,000 investment) and is now trained by former Meade assistant, Andrew Lynch for well-known owner Chris Jones (Arthur Moore trained his Tiger Cry to win the Grand Annual in 2008). My guess is that this is significantly the most expensive horse that Lynch will have handled up to now.

One of the talking horses from points in recent weeks, the Craigsteel gelding Boss Croaker-winner of a recent Dromahane maiden-was languishing here in sixth on his debut.

This was Jarob’s second outing having finished 4th at Monksgrange the previous April. This turned out to be a good race as it contained Buchaill Alainn (4th in Cork bumper), Financial Climate (bumper/hurdle winner for O Sherwood) and possibly the potentially very useful Village Vic-winner of a bumper impressively for Philip Hobbs.

Lynch and Colgan have struck up a good partnership recently and they are 1,2 in two hurdle races at Fairyhouse over the past few months.

There’s a lot to like about this horse so far.

Where can we buy you book.........That fellow in One Jump Ahead wouldn't get a look in with you RA.

Two other horses running today that I am keeping a close eye on:

Harpsy Cord: runs over fences for first time today (1.30 2m5f100yds beginners’ chase) for Jim Dreaper and Alan Potts. His pedigree suggests he is a chaser as his dam is a half-sister to Visible Difference who won the Drinmore (2m4f) in 1993 for Paddy Heffernan and the granddam is a half-sister to Nicky Henderson’s 1993 Arkle winner Travado.

When he won his maiden hurdle at Limerick Dreaper said:

He´s a grand horse for next year. Sam Curling produced him and he was a ready made horse when he came to us. I imagine one more run over hurdles will be enough and he´ll go chasing in October. He´s a lovely mover on an all-weather gallop so I would say he´ll handle any ground.

Killiney Castle-Pat Doyle: (3.10 2m4f handicap hurdle) son, Jack, home to ride and looks like hand-brake off today.

Two things to be said about this horse today: firstly, a horse may need to "learn" how to try to win when asked for first time and bear in mind the sire, Gamut, has yet to sire a racecourse winner.

Not quite sure Catch Me although one of the recruits, Mobile Sizer, cost €320,000 at public auction in 2010 and De Bromhead must have been very peeved over this even if the horse seems to have a lot to prove after one poor bumper spin over Christmas. I'd say Potts is a little volatile and withdrew all horses from Philip Hobbs in the last couple of years as an example. I thought Royal De La Thinte was the kind of horse that would suit Dreaper (beaten by Quito De La Roque last February) but I've heard nothing of him since. I hoped he might be even classier than Notre Pere.

Harpsy Cord ran reasonably well today against Rathlin (came in for sustained support from those with, perhaps, excess faith in Lord Jim with a debutant) and can be expected to improve significantly for the run. Although I must admit my enthusiasm for him was a little dented after he turned for home as I hoped he had the class to stay on a little more strongly than he did. (Ideally, he'd be beaten 5L in third and Securicor could be booked in advance.)

The Gamut gelding, Killiney Castle, went out like a light (I love to find a first-time gamble run well without winning because then WE know!) and (we can say it here) the sire is proving to be very disappointing with just a single winner on the point-to-point circuit (Killiney Castle) since his first 4yo's ran last spring. JP bought the two most expensive foals: Limerickurmylady @ €110,000 and Thomond Park @ €90,000. The former might win a mares' race but the latter is no good.

Jarob probably ran a little better than his final placing as he was thereabouts running into the straight and I'm not sure what to make of the run. Obviously a watching brief is all that can be advised at this stage but I'm pretty sure he has a decent engine based on recent collateral form happenings. Knowing little about the trainer also dents my confidence.

Although this exercise is most definitely a marathon rather than a sprint I may change my tack slightly and cover horses other than those with a pointing background. One of the disciplines I learned many moons ago was the patience not to bet until I felt the opportunity was ripe. I think if you specialise in a certain area and time constraints apply you can expect a relatively small number of bets as you build a database of potential opportunities. It's a work in progress and, hopefully, will prove its worth over time. (Needless to say, further insights or comments on anything mentioned from other contributors is most welcome to help complete the picture.)

P.S. I have never laid another horse in my life save for New Approach when he won at Epsom (khrist-what a cost that was!) but it seems to be "easier" occasionally to forecast why one may not win and I may consider this strategy.

I'll keep taking the tablets for the moment.

hi again ra, many of the pointers you have highlighted are really 2nd and 3rd division stuff and coinsequently their lack of class may lead to difficulty pinpointing the exact moment to extract a profit if it can be extracted.
you have highlighted a few stats, including the one about gollings and hurdling debutants, would have paid layers handsomely at donny today in the first. while study the form of that particular race, i did look at the boxing day win of gores island at towcester. from that race i want to mention one pointer to you that you might analyse from a pedigree perspective. according to the form read, the 7th home, tickatack, weakened from 4 out and would tend to lead someone just looking at the formread that he was tailed off. the video shows he was given an easy from the home turn and far from disgraced. this was his 3rd qualifying run for a mark, he has shown promise on his english debut at worchester also. he won his maiden point last march with loads up his sleeve, against poor opposition.
he has an engine, the current trainer will place him to win assuming he gets a 90-95 rating. with the likely betting bias that we tend to see against smaller yards, this grey gelding may justify blind faith punting for 6 to 8 runs if contesting staying handicap hurdles or chases, as one win may yield a level stakes profit or more in the next 8 runs. i would prefer to be punting with this lad blind rather than the likes of say killiney castle or even no loose change. would you have negatives against tickatack?

Thanks for the contributions keen leader and Santry.

My friends (yes, you Tom and Michael) are often regaled by me about The Zulu Principle which is essentially a parable as how you must really specialise in a subject if you are to profit from it. I started to study point-to-point form a number of years ago and it has gone through many iterations but now essentially consists of following unexposed four and five-year-old maiden winners with the odd mare and six-year-old (particularly early in any new year) thrown in. I believe that a winning maiden at least points to some level of ability and that’s a fair start in a game of so many variables. I have learned (as Santry suggests) that most of the rest of the winners and races are completely avoidable.

There have been spectacular days that live in memory: fivee out of six winners on St Stephen’s Day three years ago to name but one but my betting strategy hasn’t always managed to profit from my research. I felt that contributing to this thread might force me to be more clinical about making a call on runners and betting (or not) accordingly and also, ironically, it would highlight any shortcomings in my approach.

I devour any article I can find on the subject of point-to-points and I am constantly criticising the standard and content because they are usually missed opportunities with the interviewee. I want to know why a particular trainer might favour a p2p introduction over a bumper or hurdle, how successful have they been training pointers, what type of horse do they like, are they sellers or keepers, what current stallions are they keen on and all those esoteric approaches adopted by different individuals. Apart from a general piece on the trainer and a pen-picture of the horses little else is added.

Current and recent columnists such as Derek O’Connor, Ciaran Fennessy, the Crawfords, Elliott etc rarely advance (reveal?) snippets that I would regard as adding to my knowledge base. They do give “some” information admittedly but not enough for my curious nature!

I am not a slave to any system but I am particularly keen when I find a thread to a winner that gives me some increased or additional information on the horse that would not be so apparent in the public domain. I pay no attention to hype so, inevitably, the public will be aware of the talking horses but I try to avoid this influence and I will never invest on hype. Ultimately, it takes a lot of time and energy and I have fell off the wagon many times in my efforts to stay current and failing to back my judgement with cash.

My recent postings here have highlighted some of the deficiencies to my present approach of trying to extract profit from my accumulated knowledge of the past five seasons:
1.    I don’t get to as many meetings as I like so paddock inspection is missing and, in any event, I’m no conformation expert.
2.    I’m not close to the horses themselves so I will have to prove empirically that Overbury’s are slow coaches whereas this will be relatively common knowledge to a guy like allduckornodinner and other traders or insiders.
3.    As I have seen here recently, trying to predict a first time run in a bumper, hurdle or chase is difficult and only a decent price can make up for this unknown. (I did back Jarob yesterday at odds close to 100/1 here as I liked the story, his price shortened a little on-course and I know that if I back such horses 100 times I won’t always be wrong.)
4.    English racing (or rather the exported winning pointers) seems to be weighed very much with the big stables and I find these conditions races for inexperienced horses becoming far less interesting.
5.    The UK market is skewed to the bigger stables and prices leave a lot to be desired at your average meeting.
6.    I almost dismiss horses when they win through some prejudice or other and this often results in the failure to highlight a horse such as Monksland who, surely, at 6/1 had to be exceptional value last weekend.

As keen leader mentions in his thoughtful piece (if I can paraphrase) you must find track-based evidence allied to whatever other information on the horse and trainer you may have and then follow your opinion through thick and then. I adopt a variation of this on the flat side of things with a degree of, mostly, theoretical success. So I will slightly amend my approach to look for proven (or, preferably, hidden) track ability allied to my data bank of pointing knowledge.

The public domain guys doing well at this game (i.e. reporting profits) such as the professionals Pricewise and  Hugh Taylor and private individuals such as Billy Liddel (betfair racing forum) and Pyro (private contributor on boards.ie now gone commercial) depend on obtaining “value” prices that are never there for the general public. They do prove you can be profitable but, ultimately, becoming a fan means your profits will be all smoke and mirrors based on prices you could never attain. (Liddlewise is more of an exception to this rule.)

My idea of the contrarian approach is to back the difters that Pricewise rejects for what should be obvious reverse-psychology and it’s what I hope I can achieve in my own betting. Inevitably you will fancy horses that the market also selects but there will be plenty of opportunities to test your own mettle on outsiders too.

Once more unto the breach……..stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood…and give ‘em hell!

P.S. I can't find anything to dissuade you from following tickatack on pedigree kl but I do notice that McPherson trains a lot of "cheap" Irish pointers. I'd like to know more about his style and success rate.

The question posed by Limerick made me take a look at the Gigginstown/CB story so far, including the Byrnes' point history:


Over the past five years, with the exception of Mask Of Darkness, Charles Byrnes has not used the point-to-point scene to any significant extent as part of his training operation. He last trained winners in the 2007/8 season but these horses were of no appreciable use when they later hit the track albeit that Caltra Royale won a Downpatrick maiden hurdle eventually.

Mask Of Darkness seems to be quite fragile and I had given up on him until I saw that he recently ran in Cork in a handicap chase and, unsurprisingly after a year off, was pulled up. He’s only run seven times over fences since April 2009 and has shown ability so it’s not time to write him off yet. If connections are persevering with him we can take the hint!

After no runners in points in the last two years Byrnes has recently been running Cabo Roig (2006 mare out of a well-related unraced dam) and Gigginstown’s Puelche (expensive 2007 French-bred gelding) in maidens but it looks as if they are running in this sphere simply because they are no good. The latter had three runs (probably for Pat Doyle) last spring.

The obvious standout horse for Byrnes and Gigginstown is Weapons Amnesty, winner of the Albert Bartlett in 2009 and RSA chase in 2010 and not seen since. Byrnes was rewarded with Weapon’s Amnesty’s half-brother, Sharpnel, in 2010 after he won his maiden point for Pat Doyle. This was the most expensive Gigginstown horse (at €160,000) to make it to Ballynoe as far as I can tell (without knowing private sales’ tranactions) but, generally, Byrnes is being given a ration of lower-tier premiership Gigginstown’s sales horses (i.e. costing less than one hundred thousand euro) each season for the past four years. They started their connection in 2005 when O’Leary bought Vintage Treasure privately and left him in the care of Byrnes who won three races with him thereafter.

Out of 15 horses to run in the well-known purple livery Byrnes has yet to have one ready to win first-time-out with the exception of Vintage Treasure (good form in the book) and, more recently, Arnaud, who surprised everyone with his winning performance in a 3yo hurdle. This horse was hugely eye-catching on his only start for Tim Doyle in a one-mile maiden at Cork in the autumn and he is just the type of horse that Bynres can excel with under both codes. There have been some very expensive first-time-out bumper failures too.

Of current horses running, Sea Of Thunder, as a slow-to-mature Old Vic, looks by far the most promising and Fists Of Fury could be a plot for the four-miler in a few weeks if the ground came up good-soft. Shrapnel has been very expensive to follow.

Generally speaking, I think the horses have been running almost entirely on merit (I cannot see O’Leary, as a non-gambler, tolerating any messing) and I think the more support forthcoming at graded level, the more confident you could be of following the money. It makes sense with O’Leary interested only in “big” horses and very decent trainers’ percentages available.

Of the two horse mentioned by limerick:

Wolf Hall: typical mid-level price-range Gigginstown horse to make it to Byrnes’s as a €57,000 3yo purchase. By Presenting, out of an unraced mare who is a half-sister to a winning hurdler (rated 109) the pedigree is decidedly average.

Beaten 34L on only run in a Thurles bumper, although the front five have been advertising the form, the sixth horse (6L behind the 5th)  has yet to run and Wolf Hall was a further 13L back in 7th. He made ground to chase the leaders into the straight, got a couple of cracks and couldn’t quicken. He definitely was allowed to coast home after this but, putting my neck on the block, I’d say he might be overbet on his next run on account of how Corbally Ghost et al have run. One of the stand-out statistics is that no ex-Doyle pointer has ever won a bumper for Byrnes.

Themouthof Flowers: trained by Denis Murphy, he was travelling well in the lead until falling four from home in a Rockfield maiden in November 2010 and not seen since. He started favourite under Derek O’Connor and no less a man than one “D Russell” was the registered owner.

Only Netminder promises to be of any account from this particular maiden for the Scottish border trainers Sandy Thomson (exactly! who??)

Davy has good powers of persuasion (ask the Stewards who enquired into his missing the test last year) and the horse is now owned by his retainer. The horse cost €9,000 as a 3yo and is the first foal of a hurdles-placed dam who is a half-sister to two modest middle-distance winning jumpers. Themouthof Flowers is from the first crop of obscure Danish champion (!!!), Dano-Mast, who has managed to breed three flat winners and has had no success from a handful of jumping efforts. His first crop are now six.

I doubt this will be one of Michael’s best buys.

Carrigmorna King is out tomorrow in Newbury and should have a decent shout, but Dickie probably get him beat again....... hot little race again with top stables represented... so backer beware.......... Carrig might be done for toe, though its 2ml 3f

Interesting that you believe he should win tomorrow, but yet you think that he is vulnerable off 122 in future handicaps.

That looks a hot contest for a midweek event tomorrow with a very useful ex-flat horse debuting for Hendersen, along with a Lavelle horse that brings some smart bumper form to the table.

While they will improve for these hurdling debuts, I would think that it will certainly take a performance of around the 120 mark to be successful in this contest.

My paragraph on Carrigmorna King last night was lazy as, frankly, I was winging it a bit as I hadn't studied the race in detail-not a recipe for success if you're having a bet.

He should be good enough today and his second at Taunton was visually impressive battling hard to beat the Nicholls' hurdling debutant Salubrious (previous impressive bumper winner), finishing well clear of the remainder and achieving an RPR of 122 for the second time-an assessment matched by the handicapper. His first run behind Prospect Wells (OR 145) and All The Aces (subsequently improved his RPR by 11lbs to 139) reads well.

Against a horse with two out of three good runs (very soft ground possibly unsuitable on one occasion) either of the main hurdling debutants would need to post a very smart effort to trouble Carrigmorna-not impossible, especially by the Henderson flat recruit.

It's possible he could win comfortably today and would only have to carry a 5lb penalty on Saturday in a £40k handicap. Adding some substance to the improvement theory is Same Difference's improved run in the Warwick Grade 2 last weekend (close fourth to CK in December and improved 6lbs on next start).

Not for the first time I am aware that my analysis is incomplete as I have no idea how either Henderson or Lavelle perform with hurdling debutants and I would even extend this gap in knowledge to the average number of runs it generally takes Hobbs to win a maiden or novice. I will definitely be investing in Raceform Interactive for the coming flat season.

BOOM TICKATACK

Keen Leader 11/01/12

hi again ra, many of the pointers you have highlighted are really 2nd and 3rd division stuff and coinsequently their lack of class may lead to difficulty pinpointing the exact moment to extract a profit if it can be extracted.
you have highlighted a few stats, including the one about gollings and hurdling debutants, would have paid layers handsomely at donny today in the first. while study the form of that particular race, i did look at the boxing day win of gores island at towcester. from that race i want to mention one pointer to you that you might analyse from a pedigree perspective. according to the form read, the 7th home, tickatack, weakened from 4 out and would tend to lead someone just looking at the formread that he was tailed off. the video shows he was given an easy from the home turn and far from disgraced. this was his 3rd qualifying run for a mark, he has shown promise on his english debut at worchester also. he won his maiden point last march with loads up his sleeve, against poor opposition.
he has an engine, the current trainer will place him to win assuming he gets a 90-95 rating. with the likely betting bias that we tend to see against smaller yards, this grey gelding may justify blind faith punting for 6 to 8 runs if contesting staying handicap hurdles or chases, as one win may yield a level stakes profit or more in the next 8 runs. i would prefer to be punting with this lad blind rather than the likes of say killiney castle or even no loose change. would you have negatives against tickatack?

fair dues norn..did u do the treble?..

YES MATE   .HUNTERS WAS BIT DISAPOINTING BUT WILL WIN  NTO 2 RACES IMO

RA . YOU EVER COME ANY THE  NORTHERN P2P ? EMAIL weedy50@hotmail.co.uk  ( hot  mail )  EXCELLENT WRITE UP AS USUAL THINK BOTH  WILL WIN LOADS RACES . WHAT YOU THINK OF HUNTERS LODGE  NTD HORSE BIT DISAPOINTED  FOR ME MAYBE JUST A CHASER , NICE SEE TORRENS WIN AMOTHER BUMPER AND CRAWFORD GET DOUBLE @ AYR

CHEERS M8  LOOKING FORWARD TO 250 CHEPSTOW  BARLOW DH IN TOOMBRIDGE P2P  AN HAWKS POINT WON @LISRONAGH  ALTHO GOOD GROUND HEAVY @CHEPSTOW AN THE WINNER IMO TIGER MAGUIRE . THINK COTILLION EW  220 CHEP WILL LOVE GROUND . TYRELLA IS MY LOCAL P2P ALWAYS NICE GROUND IF YOU FANCY TRIP UP ?

COTILLION GET IN BACKED EX IRISHP2P RUDEMEISTER @16 GOING BACK BOTH BARLOW & TIGER MAGUIRE AS CANT SPLIT THEM

What to say about Distime yesterday?

Two recurring themes: price and experience. Maybe, at an early 2/1 this horse might have been worth a small bet but at 5/4 it was madness given that he was running in his first handicap. I watched the race in a Betpack shop and for some reason the opening show became the final show after the field was dispatched. There had been a lot of talk about the horse beforehand (I seem to have a knack of pinpointing horses that become public gambles) and he had been highlighted as being probably well-in in the racing media. Consequently after much muttering about the blank screen there had been a last-minute rush to the counter with punters backing the horse “blind” not knowing what price he was. The betting screen showed he had been supported from 6/4 after they were running and it was just a stupid price. 

And the result? The race was won by a horse that clearly came on from his first run in a handicap (had been supported and disappointed) from two other seasoned handicappers. Distime was never in the hunt and needed to be scrubbed along with a circuit to go on the tight Catterick track and did get back on an even keel albeit he was well off the leaders. He ran through horses bravely enough up the short straight to be fourth and was eventually beaten 11L with the Racing Post suggesting he needs further. I disagree as the dam-side is predominantly flat-bred and I think a combination of horrible ground that was “hard work” and lack of experience in handicaps was his undoing.

I’m obviously a big fan of this horse although in searching for clues as to his run yesterday I noticed that John Quinn said after his novice win that he wouldn’t be aiming too high with him. Nonetheless, there should be plenty of opportunities for him in the coming months and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t pay his way on ground that shouldn’t be too testing. Quinn also has charge of an ex-winning pointer in Moonlight Drive and this is another horse I have a lot of time for even though a recent run over hurdles needs a visit to the confessional.

GET THE FEC IN  WATERUNDER = IM GOEN GET PI$$ED

TBFMBLLND  JUST GOES SHOW YOU TEXTS ARE CHEAP INFO . HOME WATCHEN SKY =GETN OLD @54