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So what you on for the
So what you on for the
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Leif can’t knock him, but the form with Action slightly puts me off because if he needs cut he should have been beating him further.
I know people will say that Action was only beaten 1 1/2 by the Fav Bow Echo but he was behind Humidity that day. Please don’t get the mat out it’s about time we had some decent weather and I need to top up my tan!  |
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Alparslan in the Greenham looked pretty good to me and what if Albert Einstein actually is a very good horse and was beaten fairly and squarely? 36/1 in here at .. I'm on and on .. Avicenna who is the same price and tho he was beaten by Gosden's Octagon at HQ in the week he was gaining ground
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He looked straight forwards there Life Lucky and Albert surprised me with his surge when looking beat.
I’m playing devils advocate here in general trying to get debate going, that Burke threw him in to a G1 on his 3rd start last year was sign enough that he held the colt in high regards. The trouble is that he and Zaverteri didn’t act well at Newmarket. Burke said this going into the Greenham yesterday. Karl Burke, trainer of Alparslan “He seems to have gone under the radar a bit. He's had only three runs. On his last run, he was thrown in at the deep end in the Dewhurst and didn't really handle the track at Newmarket and came back a little sore. He's wintered really well and he's working very well with horses who've been winning.” We all know the saying horses first courses and that would be my concern. |
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I listened to Zaverteri’s jockey during the week on ATR he was of the opinion that the going was too fast for him in the Dewhurst.
Personally I think that Godolphin have better hopes than Avicenna, those who haven’t seen a track this year. Think back to when Native Trail entered the 2000 after his Craven win, he was ent off 5/4f and beaten by his stable mate Corebus who went there fresh at 5/1. That’s still fresh in my mind, the question is who turns up with Distant Storm? Will Kings Trail use the Guineas as his Derby trial? IsMorris Dancer even being considered for this as he’s been off for ages? But yesterday I was happy to see his conqueror in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes uphold the form. You can make a direct comparison with Alparslan with him in that he was pitched into Group company on his 3rd start having just won a maiden. Distant Storm has only won a Group 3 and is single figure odds and the Dancer was a tad unlucky at Goodwood not to have taken that G2. |
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This is from Godolphin
Distant Storm Official rating 115 5/1 6/1 90,000gns Y, E1,900,000 2yo; ninth foal; closely related to 7f/1m winner Classic (inc 2yo; RPR 100), half-brother to three winners inc Beautiful Morning (7f-1m2f inc 2yo/Group 3; 106) and La Gloire (1m2f; 85); dam Listed-placed 7f 2yo winner (94). Won on debut over 7f at Newmarket in July 2025 but pulled too hard when third in the a Group 3 at York in August. Right back to his best though when winning a 7f Group 3 on Newmarket's Rowley course in September before a third place in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Is he really warranting those odds or are others open to further progress? The Dewhurst form is looking good so it’s probably why he’s priced as he is. |
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Avicenna Official rating 103 16/1 20/1
King's Trail Official rating 101 7/1 8/1 Morris Dancer Official rating 110 33/1 |
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Just adding these snippets that were discussed on another thread :
Delashay • April 20, 2026 12:06 PM BST GLASGOWCALLING • April 14, 2026 3:29 PM BST DELA, have a look at the placed and 4th horses behind Bow Echo in all his races to date, 90% gone on to win good races in their own right. Delashay • April 14, 2026 3:52 PM BST Thanks Glas, I’ve seen and am judging him on the form through that horse to a degree, but in no way knocking him as he’s a horse that I like. 8/1 was more than fair about him. If you look back at Humidity he beat Title Role 1L Look back the 3rd that day was Action a May foal I think Bow Echo was ready made 2 year old and memory says that many asked would he progress from 2 to 3 because of his smaller stature. Before that and the beating of Humidity at Sandown in the Solario I recall the forum all saying no stars there. Delashay • April 14, 2026 4:03 PM BST Going back to the Solario Oceans Four, he went onto beat Elastic in France, that’s no world beater so the consensus of the forum at the time seems right. When I saw Publish entered for the Dante it made me think was he really a true Guineas horse? So I wasn’t surprised by the setback. It made me think that Bow Echo hs been beating slower horses. - - - - - - - - - There might be something in this for Bow Echo backers to consider? With the news that Action takes in the Sandown Classic Trial. |
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Action was beaten 1L 1/2 in the Royal Lodge half a length behind Humidity.
Title Role didn’t look great in the Greenham and it looks like Godolphin might doubt the effectiveness of Talk Of New York over a mile? From Godolphin Fourth foal; half-brother to winners Star Guest (Listed-placed 6f turf/1m AW; RPR 103) and Great Deed (UAE 1m dirt); dam 7f-9.5f winner (inc AW/Group 2; 119), half-sister to Listed winners Magnetic Charm (1m) and Show Day (1m1f); won two of his three starts, most recently a 7f conditions event at Newmarket in April 2026; probably stays a mile but effective at 7f; handles an AW surface and good ground; has been tried in a hood. |
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Thanks Del. Great summary.
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Thanks Life - Lucky
 I had a little looksee at the new AOB selection due to run if we can believe a word! |
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Any superlative comment from AOB about the Great Barrier Reef? The horse is by No nay Never. Is the sire a quirky character? There was a sire whose progeny seldom progress as 3yr old.
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You have to go back to 2011 for a horse that won this to have made the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, that was French Fifteen who was narrowly beaten by Camelot.
The BallyD colt dwarfed him and I sensed there was some intimidation in the finish. So regards the Colt named after a Tropical Island and available at 5/1 & 6/1 what has he achieved? Two Group 1’s at two I might hear backers say if they were brave enough to admit taking the odds in the ever changing fancied runners from the stable. He bet Oxagon 1L in the Chsmpagne stakes, recently Gosden said that he felt that his colt could place in a Guineas. I recommend anyone who believes that he represents a good bet because he’s a dual Group 1 winner to watch the interview with Sean Levy on ATR after this race. He states the HMoore that he went to front and kept it simple knowing that Oxagon was more inexperienced and that Cape Orator would be keen. In a sense he made hay, that was repeated in the next two runs. At Doncaster he beat the puller Cape Orator 2 3/4 lengths. Then again at Saint Cloud he beat him 2 lengths when Becket’s colt pulled for his head on the outside more so than at Donny. I’m most wary when horses are beating the same opposition more than once. Looking at Cape Orator he has lines that point us to another colt based in France Samangan, a certain Street Show was beaten 3 1/2 L by Cape Orator, then two runs later 2 1/2 by Samangan. That represents a firm turn around for the French colt because on debut he was beaten 2 1/2 L by Street Show when both were well beaten into 3rd and 4th over 7 F. If you’re still following after all that and I hope that you are, then the odds short, especially for AOB’s potential runner. |
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Apologies for the typos above, I meant to add that both Group 1’s were won on a turning track.
Whilst he won at Donny the straight mile at Newmarket will pose him a different challenge as he might be taken on for the lead earlier than is the case on a turning track. |
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22 entries left .
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That I’ve seen Foy and from what I see it looks a phiss poor renewal to me. Some of those aren’t deffos to turn up either so could be what I thought a small field.
Have they supped Gstaad? Don’t see any news on the post, too busy crooning over how they out battled the Sporting Life!  |
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5 day decs they can be added,I think.
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The French colt was always going to shorten being a definite runner but the front two from the Greenham aren’t for sure and will Varians show and Godolphin go triple handed?
Disappointed that Morris has been taken out, saw Hills removed before I left this morning. Cheers Penzance. It’s strange they have Gasstad listed on the entries on the Post but not Albert, how can that be if it’s not been done yet? |
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Only count 21 on the RP
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In racing we hear a lot about value, so I like to look back and compare odds as well as ratings.
Notable Speech was given a mark of 94 before running in the Guineas which he won at odds of 16/1 was given 109 for it. Kings Trail would be doing a Makfi and winning on only his 3rd run should he turn up. He’s rated 101 and is only 7 & 8/1 A higher mark but lower odds would seem to make sense perhaps? |
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FOYLESWAR • April 21, 2026 7:28 PM BST
an open guineas and the field will cut up a bit already on samangan and the varian horse but as said this will cut up and no hard in a few cracks at big odds imo,the greenham winner alparsan did it well but will he get a mile ? i thought the one to take out of the greenham was needle match on only his 2nd run a bit sluggish out of the stalls and still a bit green didnt get the clearest of runs and finished well btn 2 and a quarter lengths was a smart effort for one so inexperienced 50/1 for the guineas and should improve a bundle looking like a mile will suit much better than the 7f of the greenham ,i would certainly have him to reverse the form with the 3 who finished in front of him and have had a few quid ew at the 50s . Saw this keeping things in line Foys, so you’ve done Hidden Force, Avicenna, Samangan, Needle Match Unfortunately it is looking like cutting up badly, 3 firms have pushed Varians out to 25’s now Delashay • April 21, 2026 2:24 PM BST The French colt was always going to shorten being a definite runner but the front two from the Greenham aren’t for sure and will Varians show and Godolphin go triple handed? |
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*beat
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Another bites the dust sadly but was doubt anyway.
In a post on X, Johnson Houghton said: “Zavateri has had a minor setback since Newbury on Saturday and will now not be running in either Guineas.” And Avicenna has been shunted to 33’s  Race falling apart |
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Having been shunted he’s now blue, to 16/1 ! Still can’t have it the formlines aren’t strong enough and today we saw how the form is looking through Action and Al Zantac who was beat by big Hank
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Yesterday at Sandown we saw formlines that go to the Favourite put on the line.
First there was Action the Al Zanti who was beaten by Hankelow. Further behind was New Zealand who’d finished ahead of Action in Ireland. The books are out to get Bow Echo with all this shortening and the draw of the unbeaten Colt as was seen yesterday with Zeuss is a great pull, but the form doesn’t match up. |
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20 left in with the horse touted to go to the French Guineas being supp’d today!
“Puerto Rico is there at the moment and obviously Gstaad is there as well. It is very possible that Puerto Rico could go to the Guineas and Gstaad could go to France,” O’Brien added. Can you tell us about the existence of unicorns next?! Yes it’s possible I’d expect! |
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Gstaad’s Previous Day Closing Price
16 16 14 12 16 14 14 12 12 14 14 10 12 8 14 12 12 14 12 12 14 14 Now as low as 9/2!  Unlucky young Albert backers he sold you all a story going into Ascot when he told you all that he was their best horse! |
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Delashay • March 29, 2026 4:29 PM BST
He’d said that PRico or Gstaad were to join Albert at Newmarket When you look at the formlines he was the one anyway, going there without a prep run, his traditional method. It doesn’t pay to listen to him at all! Now imagine the Price of Gstaad if he’d of said he’s our only runner at Newmarket! As we expect PRico to go France. But it all goes back to last year, a narrative was laid down back then, the sleight of hand! When there was all the talk about his best horse missing the Coventry! Sold people a dummy way back then! Crafty AF! |
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Louise Benard, representative of Godolphin in France, has confirmed to us that My Highness, trained by André Fabre, would be at the start of this English group I.
“The Prix Imprudence (Gr. III) was a good preparation, because the timing was really perfect. She also ran very well that day. However, we waited to see the opposition before making the final decision. Mr. Fabre was satisfied with her work on Monday morning and she will therefore go to Newmarket this weekend if, of course, the trip goes well,” she told Thomas Guilmin at the end of the day on Monday. The filly will not be the only French representative at the start in Newmarket this weekend, since the Aga Khan Studs have already confirmed Samangan’s participation in the 2,000 Guineas. Both trials have had the form work out well. But more importantly might be the time between both races. This year the Craven and Greenham for colts have left 14 or 16 day gaps between races. The fillies that have trialed here get slightly more. The distance between races can be vital in recovery terms and neither had hard races that day. So both firlds are made up with horses coming in fresh and with those who have trialled closer to the Group 1’s than might be ideal and others who’ve had more time between. |
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Delashay • April 25, 2026 11:47 AM BST
Yesterday at Sandown we saw formlines that go to the Favourite put on the line. First there was Action the Al Zanti who was beaten by Hankelow. Further behind was New Zealand who’d finished ahead of Action in Ireland. The books are out to get Bow Echo with all this shortening and the draw of the unbeaten Colt as was seen yesterday with Zeuss is a great pull, but the form doesn’t match up. |
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Samangan is refining his form before Newmarket
Having had a good start in school recently, Samangan should be at the start of the 2,000 English Guineas next Saturday. Samangan properly worked under the saddle of Mickaël Barzalona this Tuesday morning, on the turf straight line of the Aigles track. On Saturday 2 May, Samangan should be at the start of the 2,000 Guineas (Gr. I), in Newmarket (England). An important stage for this son of Blue Point, second in the Prix Djebel (Gr. III) over 1,400 meters. Met this Tuesday in Chantilly, Nemone Routh gave us some news about this representative of the Aga Khan: "We are obviously aiming to run the 2,000 Guineas. Samangan did a good job this morning (read on Tuesday). He will like the fast track. The race will be quite open. If we don’t present him at Newmarket, he would have to run in a group III in France and he has already won at the group II and group III level; it would be illogical to stay here to resort to a level where he has already defeated. Lately, we wanted to hide him to see if he could go the distance. He came across a very fit horse, which led at its own pace and was able to start again. Samangan is very massive and has become very cold, but this race did him good. So we’re going to Newmarket and we’d be happy to see him finish in the top three. However, he will have to adapt to the rather special track, prove to us that he has the level and, above all, see if he can hold 1,600 meters. This attempt will be instructive for the rest since he is engaged on the mile and on 1.200 meters for Royal Ascot". |
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Delashay • April 17, 2026 11:28 AM BST
Samandagan is only just above Rayif with the former posting the same figure as on his run from last year. Rayif is open to improve on that margin given we haven’t yet seen him. I’m wary of Graffard because of how he operates, is he coming for the Guineas or is this a day out for and learning curve for something later at Ascot perhaps? |
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Del, do you believe in the lone gunman theory?
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could be delash or as i like to think graffard wants to win our guineas and maybe this is the horse he thinks can do it ! top trainer and as with many french that come over here they often are bigger prices than perhaps they should be . a bit of a bias that can be exploited sometimes ! we will see .
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That used to be case Foys with their odds being bigger than they should be, because of ignorance or prejudice about foreign runners.
But he’s now in line with horses who have run, French Fifteen was around 12/1 , Hermival also ran in the same Guineas and was 33/1 , the Aga horses will always be shorter. Barza thinks he’ll get the mile and back when he ran in the Debel some of his horses were sick. He’s still sorting that out. It’s difficult to know what to make of that run, he wasn’t not staying and he wasn’t really gaining, Albert’s class got him to where he was in the Greenham on gas and only after the Guineas will we know if it was the same for him in the Djbel? Oh shucks just seen he’s gone right out, another blow for the race? |
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JohanntheGoatHurdler • April 29, 2026 8:33 AM BST
Del, do you believe in the lone gunman theory? No I don’t and sorry I missed that Johann, in what respect do you mean? Seen many docs about Kennedy and top marksmen haven’t been able to get the shots off in recreated tests on that type of rifle. Bullet trajectory etc… man on the grassy knoll, it was all too easy to point it at Oswald with his Ruskie connections. |
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and b356 a blow for my ante post bets never mind
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Sorry for ya but you have other runners and will pick more winners at pukka odds
 It’s disappointing as we can’t compare form and see the horse, must not of come out of the galllop well or got the infection that’s in his yard? |
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yeah i dont let it bother me ,i always expect a good few nonners ante post and i usually only put a few quid on if i have had a win so it dont do a lot of damage anyway.
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Just had a look at the Guineas market...I can't remember such an uninspiring group of horses for a Classic.
What is behind this? Is the quality of 3 year olds simply down this year? Is it the dry weather? Bizarre. |