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So what you on for the
So what you on for the
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Ultimately I rely on my eyes, but if ratings/ historical data reinforce what I've seen, then all the better.
Rayif has only run to 102 so far, and not sure why he would reverse form with Puerto Rico, unless he were to improve massively for better ground? |
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Has AOB changed his approach to the Guineas in recent years (no winner since 2019)?
Or has he not had the right horse for the race (sprinters and middle distance horses for later in the season)? |
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It’s worth remembering the improvement that Field Of Gold made from 2 to 3 having been beaten like Rayif in the Lagadere.
They thought the ground wasn’t right for him that day as it wasn’t for Gosden’s as a 2 yr old. I think he’ll be at his best back on a straight track. It’s interesting that they are keen to bring Samangan over here and I’ve seen he’s been tipped on ATR. AOB is doing something different this year, who knows what he’ll run?! As Gosden said we won’t know a lot until we see them in the paddock to see the physical progress that they’ve made over the winter. |
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Samandagan is only just above Rayif with the former posting the same figure as on his run from last year.
Rayif is open to improve on that margin given we haven’t yet seen him. I’m wary of Graffard because of how he operates, is he coming for the Guineas or is this a day out for and learning curve for something later at Ascot perhaps? |
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Night Of Thunder & Notable Speech both rated 109.They might
be the lowest. |
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Thanks Penzance.
So rating of 109+, minimum of 3 runs are a must, as are a minimum of 2 wins. Any other absolutes? |
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It's a Stats poster you really want.I just looked because Night Of Thunder
was btn quite easy in the Greenham (Won @ 40/1) & Notable Speech was an A/W horse. |
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Are there any trainers who are easy to read and one need not be wary of?!
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Cheers for the assistance Penzance
You can add Poetic Flare at 109 In the last 12 years the Fav has been 3rd twice. 2 favs have won in those 12 years (Churchill 2017 & Gleneagles 2015) |
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2 favs have finished 3rd
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Trends
Price – 2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting Last Run – 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the 2000 Guineas, 7/12 winners had their last run over 189 days ago 3/12 winners ran in the Futurity Trophy (Doncaster) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won, 0 placed 2/12 winners ran in the Greenham Stakes (Newbury) on their last run, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed 2/12 winners ran in the Prix Jean-Luc (Longchamp) on their last run, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket, 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newmarket Previous Distance Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 8 furlongs, 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs Previous Flat Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 previous flat runs, 6/12 winners had at least 4 previous flat runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins Rating – 12/12 winners had a rating of 109 or higher Group Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race, 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Group 1 race Season Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 3/12 winners had a previous win that season |
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We’ve had double figure fields in all of those years, could this year be down to single digits and the smallest in ages?
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*2 favs have finished 3rd
 That should have read 3 favs have finished 2nd in those 12 years. |
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4 2nd Favs have won
1 3rd Fav has won |
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If you go back to what I was saying yesterday and this morning about Gosden you can see why I say that he has strong hand.
Publish was rated 110 and as low as 9/2 before his withdrawal. (I’ve posted here that I had doubts about him at the track). His other runner Morris Dancer is rated 110 33/1 and fits many of the above trends. Was 40/1 not long ago and cut to 25/1 then pushed back to 33’s after some of the others were shortened. Just need him to roll the dice and as it’s a race that he hasn’t won I think it’s interesting that there has been no news in this colt, maybe he wants to go into it quietly this time? For all I know he could end up in France or elsewhere, but he’s over odds has collateral form lines that put him in the mix as I said yesterday. Oxagon is entered for France and as they say that his aim is the Prix Du Jockey Club he might end up there? As running in that race is a good trial for that. |
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Gosden thinks well ahead and everything, I saw from his 2 year old campaign that it was about preparation. He is meticulous in how he thinks ahead in horses career.
AI says this about Salisbury Yes, Salisbury Racecourse is considered an excellent venue to trial horses for Newmarket, particularly for top trainers looking to test the stamina and ability of promising two-year-olds and middle-distance prospects. Why Salisbury is a Good Trial Venue: Stiff Test of Stamina: The straight at Salisbury is notoriously testing, with a steady, long uphill climb over the last half-mile. This serves as a strong test for young horses that might eventually compete in major races at Newmarket (Rowley Mile or July Course), which also require thorough stamina. High-Quality Form: The Sovereign Stakes (Group 3) in August and the Stonehenge Stakes often attract top-class two-year-olds that subsequently compete in major races, including at Newmarket, Glorious Goodwood, and Royal Ascot. Prominent Winner Source: The course is highly regarded for introducing new, smart, two-year-old prospects. Several winners from Salisbury have gone on to win Group 1 contests and, in recent years, notable winners such as Kodi Bear and Captain Cat have come from the track's premier races. Galoping Track: Despite having a tight turn on the loop course, the straight is a fair, galloping track that suits better-quality horses. Key Considerations for Trials: Loop Course Challenges: While the straight is fair, the loop course for races over 1 mile is tight, often demanding good agility from horses in competitive, early-season races. Stamina Focused: Because of the stiff uphill finish, horses that can run on strongly are favored, making it ideal for spotting types likely to handle the uphill finish of the Rowley Mile in Newmarket. Top trainers, including Sir Michael Stoute, Andrew Balding, Roger Charlton, and Ralph Beckett, regularly use Salisbury to prepare horses for higher-level competition. |
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Theses were the comments after the vintage stakes :
Runner-up Morris Dancer enhanced his reputation with a strong showing despite limited preparation. Trainer John Gosden revealed, “He had a little setback after his win at Haydock, so we brought him here off minimal work. William was impressed and said he’s crying out for a mile. That’s where we’ll aim next.” William Buick added, “It was close at the line, but the winner found more when I got to him. Our colt has stepped up again and is on track for something bigger.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEICODHKVYM If he can run like that off of minimal work, when it looked like Buick was keen to give him a learning experience then he’s unlucky not to have form figures of 7111 and not 7121. |
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Just hope that we get to see the colt now as that run at Goodwood stayed in my memory in terms of ability and it is a worry he’s not been seen.
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Most of the column headers are self explanatory. However, maybe some of those to the right of screen may need clarifying. Below are the descriptions for each of those headers.
O(P) - Odds(Position in market), Wgt - Weight carried, OR - Shown as 0 if horse had not been allocated a mark by BHA, Stl - Stall, Days - days since last UK/Ireland run, Form - Recent form figure(s) for UK/Ireland runs, PF - Where the favourite finished, SR - UK/Ireland runs that season leading up to the race. [ This image is no longer available. ] Credit: https://www.horseracebase.com |
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Cheers top why can’t I see the right part, it cuts off on the breeding
Number isn’t stall is it? |
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Depends what device you're using I suppose. I'm on a laptop and all of the photo showing.
Yes, the 'No.' column is the Racecard Number and stall is shown in the 'Stl' column which is in the right-part of the photo which you say you're unable to see. |
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Ok thanks I’ll log on on my desktop. In what way do you mean that they might need clarification?
Have you any fancy in the race or too early to play? |
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"In what way do you mean that they might need clarification?"
horseracebase.com only covers UK/Ireland racing so I thought it best to clarify that the data in the 'Days', 'Form' & 'SR' columns only related to UK/Ireland runs. |
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Ok thanks for explaining, keeping your fancy under your hat!
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The going has largely been consistent, I’m glad that they did away with the cut off and chute.
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Been going through the history of the race.
Didn't realise that Johnny G hasn't won a 2000 Guineas yet. Still, it took AP 15 attempts at the National, and big John is currently up to 13 attempts, so there is still hope John! |
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I mentioned it earlier that maybe he’s trying a change of tact by not taking in a prep race as he’s done before.
He’s just won the trial and said that he felt the horse who won it could be in the frame but wasn’t in his eyes a Guineas winner, make of that what you will. |
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He probably was unlucky with Too Darn Hot not making it to the race.
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Gosden's Kingman was 2ND in this after easily beating Night Of Thunder,the only
time he was beaten. |
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That’s right and one that got away but there have been a few form reversals over the years. Anyone betting Distant Storm will be hoping that he can do a Cockney Rebel and reverse form with those from his 2 year old campaign.
Cockney Rebel was beaten in the Champagne by Vital Equine and Eagle Mountain in that. But won the 2000 in convincing style under ice cool Pesiler with Vital Equine 2nd and Eagle Mountain in 5th. One of the best Guineas winners I’ve seen and he never got the credit he deserved coming from near last and passing the field, beating the likes of Duke of Marmalade, Dutch Art. I’ve seen the “reels” of the Newmarket gallops and Distant Storm looks like he’s done very well physically, the rp watcher said that he might have needed it. |
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Another example of the improvement and form reversal also took place from the Champage Stakes when Too Drn Hot missed beat Phoenix Of Spain.
He missed the Guineas as said, but made his comeback in the Dante (which is another reason I went off Publish seeing he was entered there) Phoenix of Spain beat him 3L in the Irish Guineas Too Darn Hot reversed form in the SJP but only finished 3rd with Phoenix only 6th |
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I might live to regret saying this based on that :
“So despite the Dewhurst form being franked I’m not keen on Distant Storm for those reasons, the colt was also beaten twice by Gewan and I’m not sure that he’s their best. If Gewan was showing he’d have to reverse that form with him.” Which I’m aware of because of those past reversals mentioned above, I just don’t see the brilliance in the evidence that I’ve seen elsewhere and whilst they still have other entries I’m not a believer. If he was their only runner I’d start sweating maybe! |
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Zaverteri ran well on a flat track
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Newmarket?
No The winner of the Greenham NO |
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Neither liked the track, there’s 2/jokers left, let’s see who’s declared
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gone for samargan 25/1 ew progressive last year 3 from4 winning group 2 and 3s and decent prep in djebel running on over 7f a mile could suit could be a question mark on trip but graffard is keen .
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I still get the nagging feeling Hawk mountain could be APOb's best 3 yr old.
Whether 8f is far enough, and the thing needing juice in the ground, are off-putting. NRNB when available, and the prayer mat out for rain. |
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Thanks guys for your input
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I’m wary of Graffard Foyles but I got the impression that they were looking to run Rayif here until he missed his comeback. Nemone had mentioned going into that both options were open and said that he also had straight track form which I think was his best run.
What puts me off is not the distance he looks a strong colt but Graffard showed last year that he’d travel a horse for a later purpose when he brought Daryz for the International. So my doubt is whether he’s using it getting him used to travel and an undulating track for the Ascot sprint. But 25’s is a price and others are shorter than they should be. |