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no rain fcast big let down for Mullins most of his the softer the better,if its gd to sft or better ,look out for the market moves on the few of Mullins that prefer the faster going
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“Hendo saying he spoke to John Pullen on Thursday and it is ‘proper soft’ at the moment and cross country course still heavy. Hendo doesn’t think it will dry out that much and won’t get to good ground. Doesn’t think the watering cans will be needed and it will take plenty of getting”
That sounds like a lot of guff to me. The course has only had 5mm of rain over the last seven days and the forecast is very much in favour of the ground drying out before next Tuesday. Add to that the fact that Cheltenham has a very efficient drainage system and it’s odds on they’ll be watering before racing. |
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Well Eric i have been laying BDA & Lossie both for mares expecting as they should both go champion and backing a fair few of the others @ what will be inflated odds if Lossie stays Champion. I thought she ran a sound race @ Kempton and didnt really lose any ground to C.Hill other than what she gave away @1st 2 hurdles. Really cant see why connections woludnt fancy another crack @ C.Hill @ a track she thrives at. If intentions are for Lossie to go Champion then i reckon you will find out tomoz(if not stated today) if /when Nicky & J.P supplement Joyeuse. So expect some more wild fluctuations. Lossie yesterday went as low as 2.5 for mares and as high as 8.0 late last night
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Autocue that was last thursday which agree is guff as its irrelevant to today after 4 drying days. With a good few more drying days & warmer temperatures later in week. Dont think its a prayer of being soft or worse.
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yes geoff m the Mares market has been and will be all over the place once Joyeuse comes in and others defect to the Champion.
It makes you realise betting long range antepost with dominant stables that have a lot of choices is probably not a good idea. of course if you play the markets the weeks before on these double entries with lack of information from those stables it is an absolute dream as you can easily create illusions a horse runs in the Mares when it is going Champion and vice versa. You can probably make an awful lot of cash that way. Long range antepost is far far harder and may be a gonner with the current status quo having contenders for all of those races. It all happens late on re targets for Mares or Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase or Ryanair or Gold Cup very late these days. Absolute minefield unless you are a layer. |
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Brighterdaysahead to take on Constitution Hill in Champion Hurdle showdown - but Nicky Henderson reiterates confidence in unbeaten star
The big story By David Jennings The Champion Hurdle showdown everyone wanted is on after Gordon Elliott revealed Brighterdaysahead will take on Constitution Hill in a pulsating clash at the Cheltenham Festival. The superstar six-year-old will take on the boys in the opening-day highlight, rather than sticking to mares' company, following discussions over the weekend with Gigginstown's Michael and Eddie O'Leary. Nicky Henderson, trainer of Constitution Hill, has welcomed the decision. He predicted it will lead to a good gallop, a scenario he feels will suit Michael Buckley's unbeaten hurdler perfectly. Bookmakers reacted by shortening Brighterdaysahead into 7-4 and pushing Constitution Hill out to a general 4-6 to reclaim his title, while the Mares' Hurdle market has also been impacted, with Lossiemouth now odds-on to repeat last year's win. What they said |
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Dont think it matters to much whether your a layer or backer. What does matter as always is the price you are backing or laying @.Im predominantly a layer but will back em back to reduce the liability/price of the lay.
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Looks like we are in for a result. Lossie Champion Joyeuse supplemented.
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can’t see it posted anywhere that she runs?
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Racing Post quoting Joyeuse to be supplemented. Now if i was J.P and owned hoses in partnership with Rich Ricci i would be having a word & cheking where Lossie goes before supplementing Joyeuse. Just reading between the lines.
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Maybe. I see connections announce Golden Ace most likely Mres bound.
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Willie Mullins Final Word just posted on Sporting Life website-
Lossiemouth She's been very good, and it was unfortunate what happened that day [when she fell in the Irish Champion Hurdle] as it was shaping up to be a good race and then it was a bit of a damp squib as State Man probably just loitered a bit on his own out in front. She started off slow at Christmas [when runner-up to Constitution Hill] but I think that's because in the past 18 months her races have been two-and-a-half-mile events and in the Hatton's Grace it was a crawl and she probably thought she was going to do the same again - she didn't know she was in a fast two-mile race and it took her a bit of time to get into gear. What I liked was that she didn't fade out of it and was doing her best work at the end. She'll be a lot sharper for Cheltenham and the plan for the last two years has been for the Champion Hurdle and I'd imagine that's where she'll go. We still have her in the Mares' Hurdle but at this point in time it's about the Champion Hurdle for her. She likes Cheltenham and that's a huge advantage. It might be a blessing in disguise that [since Kempton] we now know we need to sharpen her up before those two-mile events. The speed is there and we just need to get it out of her. State Man He won the Irish Champion Hurdle but it was sort of a non-event because Lossiemouth fell and he had disappointed at Christmas when Brighterdaysahead was very good and just jumped out and went. She probably caught this fella on the wrong foot on the day. I think he'll be a lot better coming back to Cheltenham - he's a Champion Hurdle winner defending his title. He probably hasn't had the best preparation this year but I'm happy he's in good shape and will give a good account of himself. In the Irish Champion Hurdle, he looked fine in the race and Paul was very happy sitting in behind Lossiemouth. He was lucky he didn't get caught up in that [Lossiemouth fall] when you look at the head on. He was lucky he didn't get an injury as so many times when a horse turns upside down like that they injure the horse coming behind them. He escaped all that and seems in good order. We're hoping he can reproduce his best form, and he will probably need it with the form Constitution Hill is in. Energumene I've been very happy with him and he's in great order. The forecast might be against him as it's supposed to be dry between now and Cheltenham. He'd probably want all the rain he can get. He's 11 years old so it's hard for two-milers to retain that energy over these short trips, however he's doing everything right at home. Come the day, if we happen to get a downpour it will be in his favour. Gaelic Warrior It's still open but I'd say he'll probably take his chance in the Champion Chase. As we've seen with Gaelic Warrior, a bad run at Leopardstown before Cheltenham doesn't mean he can't win as he won the Arkle last year after a dreadful run at the DRF. I was hoping he would improve enough to win at the DRF after his nice run at Christmas but Solness was going to be hard to beat on the day |
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Thanks eric
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No probs jimnast it is the final large piece of the Festival jigsaw good luck :)
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Things can still change but you would have to think Lossiemouth will run in the champion hurdle now which I’m pleased about I have no financial interest in the race and most probably won’t,I have to admit after the O’Learys making there decision yesterday I expected the mares for her .
Good luck to you also eric |
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Yes she is going for it by the looks of it i think she has been aimed at it i suppose they just wanted to know they could get her spot on in time before confirming it.
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Happier now with my Golden Ace bet. Plenty still to beat but if the top 2 in the market run in the CH, she is in with a very decent chance.
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i reckon Golden Ace is the bet in the Mares at the right price good luck
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I feel that Brighterdaysahead's reputation is mainly based on one run but if she is as good as many think then Golden Ace beat her last year so unless BDA has improved by more than a stone then GA must be a bet. The big unknown is Jade de Grugy who could yet prove to be by far the best mare in training but Golden Ace beat her last year.
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Yes, BDA performance is based on one run. But it was total change in tactics going flat out from the start and travelling 33/34 mph. Timeform stats were blown away and the performance was second only to Cons Hill Supreme win this century. But only by a few pounds and with the 7lb allowance she would have theoretically beaten him.
If Denman was held up in 3 mile slowly run chases rather bombing from the front he might have been beaten by a Golden Ace. I’m a huge CH fan but also think BDA could be something special. One thing is for sure if BDA wins she won’t get the plaudits as all the CH fans will claim the horse didn’t perform. |
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FWIW I reckon Skeltons Take No Chances has been vastly underated in the Mares. Last time out beat the Mullins Kargese over 2 miles who had previously run 2nd to the 2 stars Sir Gino & Majborugh in the top 2 4 yr old hurdles last year.Take No Chances is no 2 miler having won over 3miles last year. Previous to her victory over strong pulling Kargese (who is surely better suited to a strong 2 miles COunty?) she ran @ Cheltenham over the mares trip running 3rd beaten 2 lengths and giving 10lb to the unbeaten Elliots Woodoh. In 2nd place was a certain Joyeuse(who is going to be supplemented today to Mares) and she gave her 18lbs. Not having the run of a slowly run race Woodoh & Joyeuse far better placed. Joyeuse as we all know then won the old Schweppes last time out @ Newbury and absolutely dotted up by an easy 8 lengths. After supplementing imagine she will be 2nd or 3rd fav behind Jade De GRugy @ around 5s assuming Lossie goes C.Hurdle Take No Chance @ 20s here well overpriced.
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Official figures have Brighterdaysahead improving about 20lbs. I wouldn't argue with that. Last time looked a big step up, but in the Morgiana she had to make her own running, and continually jumped left. You could easily mark that up by quite a few lengths.
I backed Golden Ace at the start of the season, but for most of it all the talk has been about her not staying and dropping back in trip. Certainly that's the way the media were portraying it. I maintained her 'poor' form this season was still good enough to place, and that form might well have been down to the woeful form of the stable this season. Recent pulled muscle not great, and I hope the jock this time rides her as a stayer. Dropping her out means she has to pick up twice which so far she has failed to do. He is the biggest concern I have about not placing. More pressure on him this year as the degree of expectation is that much higher. He celebrated last time as if he had won the Champion Hurdle. |
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Hibore 05 Mar 25 09:34 Yes, BDA performance is based on one run. But it was total change in tactics going flat out from the start and travelling 33/34 mph. Timeform stats were blown away and the performance was second only to Cons Hill Supreme win this century. But only by a few pounds and with the 7lb allowance she would have theoretically beaten him. If Denman was held up in 3 mile slowly run chases rather bombing from the front he might have been beaten by a Golden Ace. I’m a huge CH fan but also think BDA could be something special. One thing is for sure if BDA wins she won’t get the plaudits as all the CH fans will claim the horse didn’t perform. Superb post, summed up in a nutshell the importance of the pace in a race, doesn't matter about Winter Fog running past State Man et al, it was what BDA did in isolation, forget about the rest, if she ran a time trial on her own and ran like that it would have the same meaning. Can she run like that again and if she can will the current version of CH be able to go with it and then be able to go past, other questions for me, is it possible that they both get busted up and Lossie picks up the pieces who I think will be ridden for a pace collapse, and a vital question for BDA backers, will KOK be able to take her far enough into the race? A fascinating race and let's hope it plays out as we hope and the best horse wins...whoever that is!! |
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Agreed Duffy. lets hope the top 4 go to post and give us a great champion hurdle which we have been lacking for many years.
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all over bdh at the prices
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Yes let’s hope so Geoff 20 years have passed since we had a great champion hurdle
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The Champion Hurdle is not a time trial. Times don't really matter much at all in my opinion. Jezki clocked a faster Champion Hurdle time than Istabraq and Hurricane Fly did in their 5 combined wins. Looks Like Trouble clocked a quicker Gold Cup time than Kauto Star, Gallopin Des Champs, Best Mate and Denman. The proper top horses can all go a strong pace.
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^
Speed figures are completely different to times. |
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There are only two genuine contenders eg Constitution Hill (CH) who relinquished his title due to ill-health, and BDA, the young pretender who pummeled State Man (SM) into submission twice this season; SM received the same treatment from CH last season.
The form of Lossiemouth over 2m is not comparable to either CH or BDA or SM. |
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We could end up with 5 runners in the CH. Constitution Hill, BDA, State Man, Golden Ace and Burdett Road.
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Is no-one worried by the way BDA got beat in the Mares novice last year?
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Yes, but not those one's.
Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, State Man and King Of Kingsfield. Golden Ace looks to be going Mares' and Burdett Road to the County, at least according to recent comment. |
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Stro, slowly run race which became a sprint. Golden Ace would probably beat her again if they run slow in CH about 25-30 secs from standard.
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I can see 4 runners at best, all being well. I think Golden Ace, Burdett Road and Winter Fog will decamp elsewhere; King Of Kingsfield will lead BDA and CH, with State Man hunting them.
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I think WF will run. Prize money-wise, also makes sense for BR to run here.
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SM received the same treatment from CH last season…..Er, when was this please?
WRONG, WRONG & WRONG AGAIN imbecile123. You continually repeat tripe on these pages, so f**k off. |
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I hope that Golden Ace goes for the mares but why is she declared at the 5 day for the CH? Are the owners leaning towards a possible jackpot and a very good chance of third prize.
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I would imagine that its ground related Sage. They might have given champion a go on soft as there seemd to be a school of thought she is better @ 2miles than 2m4. Seemed to need every yard of 2 miles in Kingwell and was struggling 1/2 a mile out.
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RATPACK wrote an article 4 weeks ago ,small field for CH worse bets at the time than ew 40,s ,golden ace
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That looks a really clever bet now. I hope his other bets are a bit better.
It seems like they have had a rethink with Burdett Road and he is going Champion Hurdle. It's the right decision as I don't think he would finish in the first ten in a County. If Lossiemouth doesn't go then fourth is up for grabs, and maybe better if State Man collapses again. Of course this time he should be ridden to pick up pieces rather than take on the pace. |