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It certainly looks like someone knows something Eric. Money talks.
It appears like someone is hoping to trap some innocents into losing their stake. |
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I could tell you the name of every mare who has won the Mares Hurdle but would struggle to name half the Champion Hurdle runners up in the same period
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Me too, first time visor. A very valid way of looking at it.
In retrospect, I couldn't name the runner up in any champion hurdle , other than state man to constitution Hill a couple of years back. I'm not as good as you at recalling all the mares winners , but I can remember the greats like Quevega, honey suckle, apples jade, Lossiemouth. |
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Market certainly screaming CHampion over Mares.
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for a man whose net worth must now be nearing 1.2 billion. id say he has little interest in someones 4 and a half bags. id say if gordon knew , he would have informed everyone. at least we will no by tues . if he was with st trilby topping , we wouldnt know till 10 am on sunday,at least be grateful for that
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Only 1 person knows where she is going. People are trading their positions listening to Gordon and media trying to convince him to “do the right thing”.
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Gordon might have a preference but O'Leary will make the call. I will stick to my view that apart from Constitution Hill at his best, the mares could be a more competitive and classier race than the CH. Brighter and Lossie are second and third favs in the CH and behind them it is a very thin field. Is Jade de Grugy only fav for the mares because nobody expects the other 2 to run there or because she is the best mare? Time will tell. Not sure O'Leary would want to end up third in the mares to 2 of Willie Mullins's.
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There is no chance BDA and Lossiemouth both run in Mares. Lossiemouth would only possibly go Mares if BDA takes on Cons Hill.
Jade DG is no mug but is at least 14lbs off BDA so if was beaten wouldn’t have won Champion Hurdle anyway. Still think BDA goes Mares and Lossiemouth goes Champion Hurdle. By announcing Monday next week it allows O’Leary to take charge and stop situation where Mullins potentially switches Lossie to Mares thinking BDA is going CH. Guaranteed one of the Mares goes to CH. |
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the rest of the CH field apart from State Man IF he makes a big return to form should be in the County Hurdle so makes sense for both mares to go there. They are almost guaranteed second and third. I don't see how you can be sure of how good Jade de Grugy is until she gets beaten again. She was 2 lengths behind Brighterdaysahead last year in the mares novice and has gone up 14lb since then. Granted BDA has been raised 20lb but she is a 2 miler while JDG is clearly more of a stayer. If all of the entries in the mares ran there I would split my stake between JDG and Golden Ace.
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BDA is a relentless galloper who is effective over 2 miles when they go flat out but will be a 3 mile Chaser and potential Gold Cup contender in the next two years. Not seen odds but imagine current fav for Brown Advisory 2026. Gordon says she could be best he’s had.
Mares this year has issue of pacemaker for her. If it was run at standard or slow pace she is vulnerable like we saw last year in novice. She would make her own running which isn’t ideal. When is the date they can supplement runners ? That would tell you if Gordon going here. |
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For me money always talks and BDA is Champion bound has been dor a couple of days according to the markets
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Hibore March 5th for supplementary.
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Thanks Geoff.
Decision on Monday and Tuesday and supplement pacemaker Wednesday ![]() |
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Watched a few previews now, and there is hardly anyone who thinks Brighterdaysahead is going Mares'.
When her best form (by a long way) is over two miles it is far from a given that she will ever be a three miler. All the dam's offspring have ended better over shorter. |
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4/7 both Champion
9/4 Lossie Champion BDA Mares 5/1 BDA Champion Lossie Mares 20/1 both Mares |
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Diff, 2 miles has been her best and worst performances. They have to go flat out as she has no turn of foot (quote from Elliott). She is just relentless and doesn’t stop.
People who think she has no form over further just watch her win the Grade 1 Mersey hurdle at Aintree. Easiest Grade 1 winner last season ?? |
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For me money always talks and BDA is Champion bound has been dor a couple of days according to the markets
stick your own grand up at 5.1 Eric ![]() |
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In that Aintree race she beat Staffordshire Knot and Bugise Seagull. Not sure either have won since. It isn't strong form. The Mares' Novice is hard to explain other than the slow gallop. On the day Golden Ace was very good, but she hasn't looked to be the same horse this season, possibly due to the woeful stable form. Leaving that aside it looks as if Brighterdaysahead has improved dramatically this season. The pacemaker has helped, and no reason why she won't have that help again. If a horse wins the Champion by daylight, I think it is her, although I would be concerned about the return of Kennedy. If you put up a performance like she did last time, I would want everything left unchanged, and that includes the rider.
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Ile Alantique was also in the Aintree race
. Jade DG beat Mousey Brown (131) in comeback race by 6 Lengths and won Grade 1 from Spindleberry and Jetara who would be 100/1 in Champion Hurdle. Mares is penalty kick barring accidents for BDA or Lossiemouth if either went there. Agree about Kennedy as you just don’t know if he’s really 100% and Ewing did very well last time. |
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You would expect of the 2 strong travellers Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth (normally) at least one of them will pick her up going up the hill. The pacemaker will have dropped out before then imo. BDA could be beaten by finishing pace unless both the other 2 are off the bridal by then
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i think Nico should just go off at normal pace and the pacemaker may not have an effect
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Why would you expect those two just to pick Brighterdaysahead off as if it's a given? I asked the question has Constitution Hill ever gone the sort of speed that the mare went last time, and the answer was three years ago, and that was against a group of novices that were well below this level. He is eight now, and with only ten runs on the board. I would say there is more than a fair chance he isn't what he was three years ago, and I would also believe he will probably need to be better than that. Nobody really knows what he will find when stretched. The closest to that was probably when he stepped up in trip. As a punter it's always beneficial to know a horse can find off the bridle. It's not out of the question that a very strong gallop could force a mistake out of him. He made one under no pressure whatsoever last time so he isn't bombproof in that department. I also thought it was strange that De Boinville nursed him home last time rather than test what was left. Would it really have hurt to have won by ten lengths, rather than a closed down three?
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Why give the horse a harder when the race was won?
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On that train of thought no horse would ever try to win by anything other than the bare minimum. How exciting would that be?
He was vastly superior to the opposition, how hard on the horse would it have been to have ridden him out? In my opinion, not very. It would have given some sort of clue, however minor, as to what was actually under the bonnet. |
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I'd say a bigger question mark is what did that race take out of brighterdays ,she may have won by a wide margin but can she repeat that next time ,she may well do but its not a given!
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Yes, in contrast she was ridden right out to the line, but she has had plenty of time to recover. I think it was always the plan to miss the Irish Champion. I doubt they will use that as an excuse.
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differentdrum
differentdrum28 Feb 25 12:05Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 19,331 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog Why would you expect those two just to pick Brighterdaysahead off as if it's a given? I asked the question has Constitution Hill ever gone the sort of speed that the mare went last time, and the answer was three years ago, and that was against a group of novices that were well below this level. He is eight now, and with only ten runs on the board. I would say there is more than a fair chance he isn't what he was three years ago, and I would also believe he will probably need to be better than that. Different that was 1 of the great hurdling performances of all time. Not just visual but on the clock. From memory Jonbon (who aint 2 shabby) was 22 lengths back and still ran quicker than Honeysuckle did beating Epatante in the Champion Hurdle. If C.H is within 7lb of that performance the others might as well go to the mares. |
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Constitution Hill is the best since Istabraq a brilliant hurdler. He appears better than Istabraq his natural pace is scary. Every horse declines it is very difficult predicting it before you see it happen. I find it hard to believe we have seen anywhere near Lossiemouth’s best this season also.
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I hope BDA runs against Constitution Hill. if so, my money will be on the latter. I hope the bookies will offer 1/1 for a one length victory.
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I’ll give you evens for a one length win. Actually I’ll give you 5/4
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Sorry 'Hibore'. A typo error. I meant 2/1 for a one length victory.
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6/4 and you're on Hibore.
You think she'll beat CH? |
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I'll be backing Lossiemouth for whichever race she shows up in. Hopefully, the Champion
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You can have my money then as Lossiemouth is a Lay for me, that was a really heavy fall.
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The betting pendulum has swung towards the Mares Hurdle opec again. A reflection on the impending decision next week? I think she'll be declared for both but only only run if Constitution Hill does not. This is my take. However, I hope she runs otherwise some critics of Constitution Hill may not be satisfied upon his victory (if).
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or BDA gets beat in the mares and we chuckle at those who thought she,d win the CH
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1st Lossiemouth was lauded as the main protagonist for Constitution Hill despite beating a non-entity (in Group term) in Gala Marceau, and thrashed by the former at Kempton; State Man had been woeful in his 2 races this season, and was gifted the win when Lossiemouth fell at the last.
Now, BDA who beat nothing but a terribly disappointing State Man. Why? Disingenuity by bookie stooges perhaps. |
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if trainers/connections thought/think BDA was a shoo in for the mares,surely the opposite logic occurs all the other mares might as well go for the champion hurdle for place money and hope fav falls/underperforms etc as a place in mares is worth less than nothing in the grand scheme
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Just hoping that they leave Burdett Road in, had some fancy each way prices with most nrnb.
As regards BDA my own view is she will stick with the mares, Golden Ace would be better off there too. |
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expect announcement shortly.
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