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Predominantly focused on the Flat, though there may be the odd jumps pick thrown in.
Prediction:
The thread will be a slow burner, with plenty of selections from left field or on the speculative side, with a low strike rate in terms of winners (2024 win strike rate was 9%), and virtually all the selections will be 5-1 or bigger at the early odds.
The odds quoted will be what's on oddschecker with at least one of the main firms at the time of posting, usually late morning / early afternoon.
As I will need all the help I can get, I am going to claim B.O.G where applicable but obviously will keep a close eye on that with some firms now withdrawing the offer.
DISCLAIMER: I'm just a guy putting up a couple or so selections most days at working men's prices with a bit of reasoning, so if the thread fails, well, what can I say other than it's a tough old game!
Prediction:
The thread will be a slow burner, with plenty of selections from left field or on the speculative side, with a low strike rate in terms of winners (2024 win strike rate was 9%), and virtually all the selections will be 5-1 or bigger at the early odds.
The odds quoted will be what's on oddschecker with at least one of the main firms at the time of posting, usually late morning / early afternoon.
As I will need all the help I can get, I am going to claim B.O.G where applicable but obviously will keep a close eye on that with some firms now withdrawing the offer.
DISCLAIMER: I'm just a guy putting up a couple or so selections most days at working men's prices with a bit of reasoning, so if the thread fails, well, what can I say other than it's a tough old game!
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Excellent shoe horning knotting hill quote,
I’m just a guy,looking for winners,stood in front of you. I’m surprised you managed to get the open top bus available to get the 2024 plaudits,acey ducey has claimed it from last years fugitifs tip. |
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Good luck George. I'll try to follow you in, but I'm usually too slow.
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Good luck, Pete, and whichever the way the thread goes, win or lose, at least you don't have to do an Alistair Campbell and give me £300K to invest for you.
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Life On The Rocks, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.24 Newcastle (4 PLACES)
I was going to select Life On The Rocks on his latest start over C/D, but he'd shortened in the betting having been tipped by Hugh Taylor, and as it turned out he didn't run well at all, finishing 6th of 8, beaten 15L. He was caught down the centre in the home straight but not sure that excuses the poor effort, and it could be that although he's a five-time winner at 10f, his wins have come on easier tracks, so maybe Newcastle isn't ideal, but that said he has made the frame twice previously here. Life On The Rocks is again running in a higher grade than he needs to be in, but it was a similar story when winning a 0-86 Racing League handicap at Windsor in the summer, and whilst he was evidently in great form at the time as that was his fourth win of the campaign, he's already 2lb below that winning mark following four runs when he hasn't appeared to be in much form, three of which have come following a 71-day break. He's of a little interest here based on his penultimate start which came over 9.5f at Wolverhampton in November in a 0-87 when although only finishing 10th of 12 and beaten over 8L, he didn't shape too badly up to a point, particularly if the run was still needed, considering he was drawn and raced wide but showed up well for a fair way and wasn't given a hard time when held inside the final furlong. The third and fourth have won since. I wonder if that turning 9f at Dunstall Park might be more suitable than today's stiff 10f, but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope that the poor run last time was just one of those things, as he'd previously shaped as though he could be about to strike form again. Shatin Venture, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.40 Newcastle Shatin Venture is returning from nearly five months off but was returning from nearly eleven months off when he ran well to finish 4th at Ayr (5f, good) in July when like today he was racing in a higher grade than he needs to be in and from out of the handicap. I selected him on the back of that on his next start over the same C/D when he did his chance no good by hanging left throughout. He was seen once more in August, again at Ayr, when he didn't offer much stepped up to 6f. Those absences in his short career to date and the hanging left could suggest he hasn't been the easiest to train, but he has shown that he can go well fresh and there is encouragement in his pedigree for the switch to the all-weather being a half-brother to a couple of winners on artificial surfaces. Linda Perratt also runs Pockley in this who's shorter in the betting, but no complaints about the jockey booking for the selection as the promising Warren Fentiman takes 7lb off. |
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It's a good job it's a marathon and not a sprint.
Life On The Rocks took a keen hold and again didn't see his race out at Newcastle. Shatin Venture, who came in for late market support, was reluctant to load but unfortunately they eventually got him in. He didn't run too badly to be beaten just under 3L but was only good enough for fifth place. 2025 Running P/L: -4 pts |
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Popped in to see if Novak had caught your attention George
 Good Luck …. |
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Another thread, another year, don't know how you put yourself through it
 Best of luck for the year ahead |
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Thank you dealer.
Eva Rosie, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.40 Newcastle I'm going to have a tentative pick on Eva Rosie, who's returning from another two months off, has a bit to find on adjusted ratings with a few of these, and has been easy back today despite a more positive jockey booking. The selection posted a couple of decent efforts in 0-50 classified stakes over C/D earlier in the year when finishing runner-up to geldings who have won races since. She's had three breaks since but in between made the frame a couple of times at Wolverhampton over longer distances. Her two runs back in the autumn off a three-month break under Andrew Elliott were seemingly poor but she wasn't given a hard time up the straight here over 10f on the latest of them having taken a keen hold. Eva Rosie is still a maiden after 14 starts but this sister to dual course winner Spirit Of Bowland has shown enough to suggest she can win a race at this basement level, and while it's a concern that this may not be the time catch her back from another absence, hopefully the return to the mile trip here can suit with Paul Mulrennan taking over in the plate. |
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Cheers Virgin, sorry missed your post.
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Eva Rosie probably would have won with a clear run, and I'm left wondering what might have been had Jason Hart been put on this one too, when you see how proactive he was on the stable's winner in the finale in getting his mount to the outer in good time to ensure a clear run, albeit maybe he knew that one had been smashed in the betting!
Absolutely no problem with the centre of the track these last two days at Newcastle, and Mulrennan could have left that option open 3f out, but I suppose he has become a northern-based version of Jamie Spencer imo, and when it comes off he looks as good as anyone, but on the numerous occasions when he doesn't get the clear run and finishes out of the frame on a horse full of running, it's a head-in-hands moment for backers. 2025 Running P/L: -6 pts |
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Eva rose should have won George.anything mulrennan rides is dependant on whether its off or not
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Thank you chav for the expert analysis.
Good luck today. Sonmarg, 1pt EW @ 17-2, 2.15 Lingfield Sonmarg didn't offer much on his debut for Dave Evans when trailing in last of eleven over 6f at Kempton sixteen days ago, even allowing for having been drawn and raced wide, however, the run might needed after 53 days off, and he's of interest here based on his two C/D runs last year for Sean Woods, particularly the first of them in July off a 7lb higher mark, when finishing second and being one of four to pull clear; the 4th and 5th have won since. The selection's other run here in September off a 4lb higher mark than today's saw him finish runner-up to a filly who was following up a C/D win under a penalty and who probably had a tactical advantage based on how the race panned out. Sonmarg was generally consistent in 2024 for his previous yard without winning having also made the frame at Goodwood, Southwell and Wolverhampton (twice). He appeals as the sort to win races for Dave Evans, particularly as he's looking fairly handicapped, so hopefully he can take a step forward from that low-key stable debut. Stipulation, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 2.45 Lingfield It didn't look a great novice contest in which Stipulation finished second in at Kempton (1m) in November, with the long-odds fav performing well below market expectations and having since run dismally in a handicap back there, but the selection's effort to finish second might have wanted marking up based on how the race panned out. He then didn't shape too badly on his handicap debut over the stretch-mile at Wolverhampton to finish fifth of 11, and the way he kept on there suggested he's worth a try over today's trip of 10f. He's been dropped 2lb and was eligible for weaker races than this one anyway, but he appears to be improving according to RPRs, and hopefully this return to a Polytrack surface combined with being upped in distance can prompt further improvement. Federal Envoy, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.00 Southwell (4 PLACES) Federal Envoy made a bright start for Iain Jardine three weeks ago when making all to make it 2-2 over C/D and defeat two proven course performers, one of which has won since. He's up in class today but his 4lb rise in the weights is mostly offset by Joe Leavy's 3lb claim, and hopefully he can make a bold effort to maintain his unbeaten AW record if going the right way from that stable debut. |
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Not one of my better days as I missed the board with all 3 darts.
Sonmarg again didn't offer much on this second start for Dave Evans. He'll probably come good for his new yard at some point off his reduced mark but it might be in a 0-50 at this rate. The race in which Stipulation ran in today saw the two leaders go off hard in front and when they inevitably came to a halt, the selection was the one that found them coming back into his path, not that he offered much once in the clear. Federal Envoy, who was 2-2 on the AW, looked to have his limitations exposed on this step up in class, not that he was disgraced in finishing 5th of 12 but was no match for the first three who pulled clear. 2025 Running P/L: -12 pts |
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Golden Mind, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton
Golden Mind was absent for over a year but showed he retains plenty of ability on his second run back when finishing runner-up at the St Leger meeting (7f, soft) off a mark of 99, on what was his first start after being gelded, and while it's hard to say he was unlucky not to win, his momentum was checked into the last half-furlong as the leader started to weaken into his path, after which he kept on well to go down by a neck. The form could have worked out better, though the 4th won a class 2 Newmarket handicap on his next start. The selection was put up 3lb and he failed to be competitive in a Heritage Handicap on his next outing at Ascot, but a high draw might not have been ideal then; and his latest start and all-weather debut came in a Listed race at Newcastle (6f) where he wasn't disgraced in finishing 5th of 12, albeit beaten over 5L behind the very impressive winner Night Raider, who was maintaining his unbeaten all-weather record. Golden Mind has had another seven weeks off since, but he's eased a pound in the ratings and is back into handicap company this evening, so hopefully this half-brother to his yard's high-class Perfect Power can give a good account returned to 7f, granted a reasonable trip from his outside draw in 8. |
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Gl with your selection George,I thought Srreet Kid as an outsider could surprise and HT has put up Royal Zabeel must have a good chance.
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good luck George, I have put up a selection thread for the 6.00 tonite .
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Good luck tanglefoot and Foyles.
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Back from seven weeks off and Golden Mind ran like a hairy old goat. He was caught wide but not that it mattered, he just didn't look in any form.
He showed at Doncaster on soft ground that he can be competitive off a mark in the high 90s, so putting my deerstalker on and doing a bad impression of Sherlock Holmes, whilst acknowledging Golden Mind will have his stamina to prove, I would deduce that he is being aimed at the Lincoln. If only I could have worked that one out this morning  2025 Running P/L: -14 pts |
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Fast Flo, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton
Fast Flo is a 44-rated, 28-race maiden who has been tried at trips ranging from six to twelve furlongs, but her latest start over 6f at Lingfield when finishing third in reapplied blinkers, which was the first time she had tried a sprint trip on the all-weather since qualifying for a mark, suggested that there may be a win in her at a basement level. She was sent off at 66-1 that day but there didn't seem any fluke about it in what was a well-run contest and the quickest of the two divisions (the other division was won by Havana Sky who's won three times since), and her effort might have wanted marking up considering she helped force the pace and was in front well over 2f out before being headed around a furlong out but only lost second place close home; the fourth has won since. Her overall profile doesn't instill confidence, she would be better off in a handicap rather than this classified stakes, and it's a concern that she's very weak in the betting having been absent for nearly seven weeks, but I'm going to take a chance on her because for all she would appear thoroughly exposed and limited in ability, this will be just her second attempt in an all-weather sprint at a realistic level. |
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good luck george
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Thank you Foyles.
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Fifth place for Fast Flo, who might just have needed it following a 7 week break, but showed enough to suggest she's worth persevering with at sprint trips on the AW.
2025 Running P/L: -16 pts |
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No selection today.
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I have Royal Approval (2.03) in the tipping comp but the price is all over the place. Not your sort of price though George.
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Good luck sageform.
Unfortunately it's already looking like I'll be needing to do another 'Steve McQueen' in my division  |
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sageform, they're giving the surface as "standard to slow" at Newcastle and the times are backing that up so far, so it makes me wonder how much the deeper surface impacts on previous "standard" course form.
In the next race, Mondammej, Dark Kestrel and Our Absent Friends are closely matched on C/D "standard" form from last time out, but which of them will appreciate the slower surface the most today? Dark Kestrel has a C/D win on s-slow off a lower mark, Mondammej has run well in defeat off much higher marks on s-slow, and OAF didn't run well the twice he's run on s-slow but might have had excuses (trip/off a break). |
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Mondammej, worse off at the weights but emphatically confirms the form.
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I can't believe that the surface was responsible for Royal Approval running so poorly.
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The was a bit of a tailwind last time but today's race 2.6 secs slower, and the time of the last two races today very slow with virtually no wind, so fair to say it's riding deeper there today.
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*There was...
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Zooks, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 6.30 Chelmsford (4 PLACES)
I'm going to give another chance to Zooks, who ran okay to make the frame at Southwell (14f) three starts back, beaten just over 2L into third behind Alex The Great, who she's 3lb better off with here; and then caught the eye at Wolverhampton (12f) when she didn't have the easiest of trips from her widest draw but still looked to be travelling well over 2f out but had to wait too long to secure a clear run before keeping on for fifth, beaten just over 2L, and the third has won since. I selected her on that back of that last time out over C/D when she was beaten 2.5L into fifth and finished behind three of these, notably the winner Carlton, who seemed to do well to win with something in hand having not been best positioned in that muddling contest, so she does face a stiff task to reverse the form, especially as there be more to come from that rival for his new trainer James Owen, and it's possible the selection is more effective on Tapeta. However, I'm hoping that if there is more even gallop this time then it will show her in a better light, and she does have in effect a 6lb pull with Carlton, as his jockey Sean D Bowen has since lost his 3lb claim. |
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GL George, taking a wild swing at one in this race with Oscar Doodle. Prominent run style no good for Newcastle round course and 2 from 2 at Chelmsford with the best course speed figure. No idea about the longer trip really but hey-ho it's 46 on here so I'll, have a nibble!
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Good luck cobs
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good luck George
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Wd George
 (unlucky on win ) gl …. |
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Cheers Foyles
Zooks a clear second but once again unable to live with the superior pace of Carlton. 2025 Running P/L: -14.2 pts |
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Cheers Virgin
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Good shout, bad luck. God knows what they were doing with Oscar. Held up in mid div then rushed up around the outside. Having said that probs just a carp pick
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well done wi the place George .
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