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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
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Good evening Guys,
The lay selection Amaysmont drifted late (BSP 4.10) but won comfortably in the end to be fair. I was beginning to make inroads after a poor start to the year, but that's laying. 2024 Lay P/L Status
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Good afternoon Guys,
A beautiful sunny day here, but i'm in the office playing catch-up after 5 days in GB and a public holiday in Germany last Thursday (a couple more this month). Hopefully i can finish around 13.30, then i'm off to the lake at Herrsching to join the München masses down there, watch ITV racing and have a beer or 3. Consequently a short post, but maybe more later. A couple of lays i will consider later, Esmeray in the opener at Lingfield (1.15) and Midair (Ascot 3.45). The AOB stable appears to be coming into form, but i think Illinois is under-priced in the Lingfield Derby Trial stakes (3.00) even though he has 5lb and up in hand on ratings. I certainly don't want to back him. At Chantilly, i will be backing the likely favourite Atlast in the G2 Prix de Guiche (2.23). He has Darlingford to beat, but his last couple of wins were on polytrack and my selection looked good winning a G3 at Longchamp LTO and has turf experience on the track. I occasionally put up an EW in the large field Saturday afternoon handicaps (not my choice of betting medium) but the lucky pin has fallen on Merlin The Wizard. Excluding his previous run in the Cambridgeshire where he finished 33rd/34 (maybe something was amiss) he had looked to be progressive and the form of his penultimate run where he won has been franked by the 2nd (rated 99) winning, as well as the 5th, 6th and 8th. Low number draws appeared to be favoured yesterday and he has 9 in a field of 21, so the Hollie may have a choice with the previous race acting as a guide. Giving a mention to Dan and Claire Kübler who are in-form (33% strike rate last 14 days) with a winner at Chester yesterday. 4 runners this afternoon, including the very consistent and likeable filly Clara Pearl (2-1-2-1-1-1) going for a 4-timer at Ascot, but she is giving away a fair bit of weight. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. | ||||||||
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Thanks ANDREW G/L
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2.32 not 2.23
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Good morning Guys,
The 1000/2000 Guineas meeting at Longchamp this afternoon and just as at Newmarket last Saturday, media and punter anticipation is directed at an unbeaten, potential superstar in Henry Longfellow, the current 5/4 favourite trained by AOB in the colts classic (3.30). Whilst i appreciate he's the rightful favourite, i think he's too short in the betting, although he could hose up. To summarise, he's very well bred, unbeaten in 3 races, a short price favourite each time and is 8lb and above ahead on ratings (converted) but conversely AOB's have needed a run, the going will be firmer than he has run on, and only over 7f at the Curragh, so never gone around a bend as such. The latter couple of pointers are not significant, but i think the fitness could be. I've already backed Beauvatier @ 8/1 albeit only the win (PP shop last week) and i will be surprised if he's not placed. Stall 10 is not a positive, but his 2 year old form with Rosallion and Ramatuelle (2nd and 3rd in the Guineas respectively) reads well. He finished 3rd in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day, 2.5L behind Rosallion, but was hampered slightly losing a little momentum, although it didn't cost him the race. Stayed on well and the extra furlong shouldn't be a problem as he was runner-up when beaten 0.75L by Ramadan in the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau on soft over CD almost a month ago. He has to improve of course, but i would rather be on him at the EW odds and i will be laying Henry Longfellow. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. PHS If the horse had started at 2.23 it still wouldn't have won.  Thanks for pointing out the incorrect time. | ||||||||
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Are you still sycophantic following plagiarism almost verbatim from the Racing Post or do you believe Ikeaman actually wrote the article for the RP?
Matters not really as his alternative user names will give a well done on a losing thread ( select group on twatchat or similar) but never mind why he has to tell all about the weather etc. Still waiting for the biography of 11+ years in the same MQ and service and postings consisting of closed Bases? That apart when does a win only bet suddenly become and ew in the final synopsis? Just curious if Ikea or fans can explain? | ||||||||
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From first thing in the Morning till late at night, .... Come on Andrew do the decent thing and let him go ....
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Glasgow
The guy is nuts and has a very unhealthy obsession with me (since October 2019 in fact) but it's all water off a ducks back to me. He can post what he likes, it's all tosh anyway. Nice to read he backed Henry Longfellow .......... and i laid it. | ||||||||
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unhealthy obsession with con men maybe more accurate on here Ikea, got the bite from you and GC but no explanation of the plagiarism near verbatim though?
Less than £40 on the AOB fav but the real bets more than a grand on the day, photos if you wish to reciprocate? That said you never do,still like your fellow sociopaths, need the attention but no substance!!!! | ||||||||
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Btw £12.5 with PP on HL Ikea, then £280 Fairbanks @ 13/8 followed by £80 Eldrickjones @ 10/3,similar to the two winning bets posted on your previous losing thread, makes you look the idiot from where most stand other than GC?
Photos at no cost, just post your bets? | ||||||||
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Prove it Cagliari or beat it…..ffs
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Prove what Quixall?
The plagiarism is easy, just read the Racing Post, the biography already exposed like you and hibby, what do you need? Already said free photos of my bets in exchange for reciprocation but like you he will not or cannot so either do or dom't,which of you is the bigger CON IYO? | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
In December last year i put up the Tony Bloom owned Bunting as an ante-post selection for the Cheltenham Triumph hurdle after watching VR's of potential entries, especially those with a French racing career aka Vauban and Lossiemouth in recent years. He won an egg and spoon maiden hurdle by 8L at Limerick in the same month, and when he finished a close up 4th in the Juvenile hurdle behind some decent types (including Kargese and Majborough) at the DRF i thought he had a reasonable chance at Cheltenham, but he was well beaten, just as he was next time out at Punchestown. He runs in the finale at Killarney this evening (8.20) on the flat, in a small field where questions could be asked of all to be honest. Once raced on the flat as a 3 year old at Fontainebleau in March 2023, winning a 11f maiden by 7L. Raced in mid-field, staying on the inner on very soft going and although making a forward move at the 400m pole didn't show immediate acceleration, but stayed on strongly to pull away from 200m out to win easily. The form is mixed, although the 3rd finished 3rd in a G3 at Chantilly last year and prior to this beat Sevenna's Knight, a 8L winner in a G3 at Longchamp LTO. Soft going will not be an issue, nor will the distance. As for track configuration Fontainbleau is not so dissimilar to Killarney, both left handed, oval (in part) and with a sharp bend before the straight. WPM doesn't have many flat runners at the course, so maybe it's a sighter with better flat races in mind for the future, as he could struggle over hurdles. Dads Lad doesn't run well fresh and may need the run, but the latter comment could also apply to the other 2, albeit to a lessor extent in the case of Uxmal. Liquidity is low at the moment, but i will be backing Bunting around evens. Hopefully Mr Bloom is doing the same before he leaves for Brighton tomorrow evening. Good luck and have a nice evening all. Copyright Andrew in Sweden  | ||||||||
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ttt
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Morning AIS,
What do you think about laying Big Rock today? I don't know who his trainer is having been moved from Christopher Head but he has not had a winner in France for 18 days and he has had 12 runners in the last 14 days and all have lost. Admittedly they were all biggish prices but all finished nearly last! Anyway I will take my chance and lay at 5/2 on here although based on running style you will perhaps be able to lay lower after 1f. | ||||||||
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Good morning Guys,
Thanks PHS and Trusty. Funny you mention Big Rock and the new trainer, i did the same to friends on my WA group earlier this morning. I was surprised when the owner moved all his horses (including one of my favourites in Blue Rose Cen) from Christopher Head, but even more surprised where they went. I follow French racing, but i couldn't think who Maurizio Guarnieri is, he's certainly not in the upper echelons of trainers over there by any means. His recent record isn't that good as you stated, only 18 wins last year and the decent sprinter Plainchant he trained has gone to John and Thady Gosden. Apparently the horse has only been with him 4 weeks, so not a long time to acclimatize and a maybe get used to a different training regime. There are too many unknowns in the race for me to bet, even though i liked the horse last year, but if i had to choose back or lay of Big Rock, i would probably do the same as you. A lot of pace in the field, most drawn high, but nevertheless i expect him to lead, although he would maybe prefer the going a little softer. I don't think it's a match by any means, and there could be a shock, but i may have a small EW on Poker Face who has a decent record over 8f. Another i will be backing small EW is Adaay in Devon in the listed sprint (2.25). A likeable, consistent filly who hasn't stopped improving since August 2023, going from a mark of 69 to her current 102. An open race with 8 of the 14 runner field rated over 100; hopefully Silvestre can get a prominent position early. I've been sofa bound for 2 days with flu and dosed up with Grippostad (Germanys answer to Lemsip). A pity as it's a pleasant sunny day and a long weekend with Whit Monday a pubic holiday. There's was an early race meeting at Riem/München, but no pattern races otherwise i may have gone if i had been feeling OK. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. | ||||||||
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Get well soon Andrew
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Best wishes Andrew.
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Good afternoon Guys,
Trusty WD with the lay of Big Rock yesterday, hope you made a few quid. A strange race in some respects, certainly a fast pace with the winners sectional times in the low 11's for 5 of the 8 furlongs, although i would treat the form with a little caution in future. I think the going was too fast for Big Rock and it's doubtful he was fully wound up. The announcement that Spanish based owner Yeguada Centurion SL would be removing the superb 3 year-old filly Blue Rose Cen and 9 others from Christopher Head to be trained by Maurizio Guarnieri was a shock, compounded further when another 22, including Big Rock, the worlds highest rated miler would join them less than 4 weeks ago. I could understand if they went to Fabre or Rouget, but the choice of new trainer is questionable. Another oddity is the planning and why Big Rock was making his season debut so late, this time last year he had run 4 times, winning all of them, including a couple of G3's. Owners pay the bills and it's their choice of who trains them, but sometimes i wonder what the thinking is behind such decision, Kia Joorabchian is just another example. On to this afternoon, typical Sunday afternoon cards domestically with 15 handicaps in 20 races. For better quality, there's a group card at Naas, the French Gold Cup at Auteuil and the Italian Derby at Capanelle where GB is represented by Andrew Balding, David Probert and the 3 year old colt Royal Supremacy who was last seen finishing 3rd in the Esher Cup at Sandown. A long way to send such a type (south of Rome) but 250K to the winner and even 30K for 4th place obviously tempting to connections. At Auteuil, connections of II Est Francais will be very disappointed he's not running in the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris (3.05) (French Gold Cup) but the joint trainers at least have a contender in Gallipoli who has been running well recently. Not a betting race for me, but i like the Grandeur Nature to beat the short priced favourite, Juntos Ganamos. Closer to home, i was strong on Yosemite Valley earlier, but seen it's been withdrawn possibly due to the going. In the G3 Goffs Lacken stakes (3.00) over 6f, i prefer the Jessica Harrington trained Givemethebeatboys over favourtism rival Bucanero Fuente who beat my selection last year, but has had a run, winning well LTO and is 3lb better off. A small win bet for me. Over at Newmarket (3.55) i think Berkshire Rocco is a lay, even though down in grade, but doesn't win often, in fact the last occasion was in January 2023 at Southwell. Giving weight to all bar one in the field that looks a tricky handicap. 3 runners withdrawn so far and it could turn tactical. PHS/Tommy Thank you. Only influenza, so no big deal, but as we get older, it takes longer to recover. Thankfully a public holiday tomorrow so i should be right as rain before Tuesday. Changing topic, regular readers know i work in aerospace and i occasionally post snippets of information that several have commented on. My profile photo is the Saab Global Eye AEW&C aircraft at RIAT (Royal International Air Tattoo) Fairford, Gloucestershire last year, below is a YT link to it's landing there. Has since been delivered to Dubai Air Force. I spent over 6 years working on this project for Saab, one i'm very proud of, there are not many aircraft like it anywhere. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwJXcKMk1wA Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | ||||||||
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Should have researched influenza and recovery especially for older persons Ikea, like "Red Eye" flights etc?
Any survivors other than Trusty and "PHS" still sending funds for the fatal car crash? | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
Berkshire Rocco drifted in the betting (5/2) and was profitable for layers, finishing 3rd. Looked to have every chance at the 2f pole, but plugged on at the one pace. Could be difficult to win a handicap with in the near future and may do better over further, although such races are few in the calendar. The well backed favourite Givemethebeatboys (5/4) was beaten a head by Bucanero Fuente (2/1) after finishing strongly and both these could be Royal Ascot bound. The winning time was the only race on the card to be fast compared to standard times. I was a little surprised at the disparity in the betting, expecting them to be much closer. In the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris at Auteuil my selection Grandeur Nature (6/1) was beaten a neck, although i didn't back it. On the same card, Bryony Frost finished 3rd in the G1 Prix Alain du Breil, her only ride of the day. I mentioned Andrew Balding sent a runner, Royal Supremacy all the way to Capannelle (south of Rome) for the Italian Derby and the expenses were easily recovered (and a lot more) with 2nd place worth £111K, not bad for a handicapper rated 87. Have a nice Sunday evening all. | ||||||||
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Morning all
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Meaning Ikea will follow shortly with excuses and a story!! Nap
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No stand outs for me today at any of the meetings, if pushed would back Starlore in the 1.30 at Goodwood, 25/1 but got the carpark draw although 3 inside runners have come out which helps a little bit. Will surely like the G/F going. How does racing allow horses drawn in difficult gates to be routinely withdrawn? 14,15 and 16 all non-runners in this race.
Kerdos in the 1.50 at Haydock, doesn't on paper look good enough but Cox has a great record in this race and he could yet improve 16/1 generally. I have had a small e/w bet and an e/w double for some interest. GL | ||||||||
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Vandeek 2.25 Haydock looks a standout,have been impressed with the horse ever since first appearance where he was slow away and beat a horse that I thought was a good thing.
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Thanks for posting and enhancing the thread's content Trusty and tanglefoot
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A very tough lay, because it's at odds on currently, but fancy taking on Camille Pissarro Curragh in the 1.55.
Stepping up in class now, and it's maiden win form is weak. It might be good enough, but it's a pure guess for backers on that, against much tougher opposition here. Think it should be more like a 6/4 shot here. | ||||||||
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well done with Kerdos Trusty.
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Nice1 Trusty
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Good shout Trusty!
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Nice winner trusty.
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Just watched the replay of both races, feel a bit peeved as Starlore looked to be cruising along 2f out but Dobbs undecided about which way to go and ultimately seemed not to actually pick up with the winner.
Nice win by Kerdos though, always looked the winner in the last 2F. Shame even the e/w double would have been a nice payout. Epsom next week another small stakes likely. Well done on your lay Stu. | ||||||||
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Trying to remember when Dobbs last had a good race, might go onto my do not bet list, watched the replay from Sandown on Thursday night and he rode another poor race on a horse called Son, who drifted from 6/1 to 20/1 on here and he decided to go so wide he never had a chance, 10L behind the rest of the field. I wonder who was laying that all day?
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Just checked the stewards reports:-
Pat Dobbs reported that SON, placed sixth, hung badly left-handed Jackanory. | ||||||||
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WP trusty
Nice tipping ahem, there was also a nice lay posted near that one  | ||||||||
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stu
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Dobbsy
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Good morning Guys,
Many thanks for the posts and selections yesterday, keeping the thread alive in my absence, much appreciated. When i saw 16 new posts, i thought the forum numpty was having another one of his turns. A really, warm sunny day (25c forecast) in Linköping; it was similar weather yesterday so very little racing for me, in fact i was only really interested in the Irish 2000 guineas and Rosallion who ran well to pick up the leader close home. A short weekend back home, and as yesterday, i will be enjoying the sun and any bets i have will only be small. A couple of 1000 Guineas classics this afternoon, the first at Dusseldorf 3.00) where 4 GB trainers are represented (it was 5 before a WD) including Karl Burke with the likely favourite. 45 minutes later, it's the Irish version at the Curragh (3.45). I don't fancy anything at either meeting, at least not enough for a bet, but i will be laying Roque Millennium in the G2 Lanwade Stud stakes (2.35). Connections will be trying to retrieve some of the £1.7 million she cost at Tattersalls. A half-decent mare a year ago, but her form did tail off a bit as the season went on. Crazy money. Over at Longchamp my favourite filly of last year (and by some way) Blue Rose Cen runs in the Prix D'Isparhan (2.40) but i will not be backing her. She won me a lot of money in 2022 and 2023, even after losing a few bob at Goodwood where she may have been unlucky. New trainer (out of form) first run of the season and hasn't run against males since her 2 year old days. I would like her to win to sentiment sake, but not with my money on. A couple i think could win at the meeting, albeit small stakes are Double Major in the G2, 15.5f, Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (1.28) over 15.5f and Yosemite Valley in the G3, 7f Prix du Palais-Royal (3.15). The former has to turn around an almost 9L defeat by Sevenna's Knight LTO, but he looked to have needed the race and was impressive when winning the Prix Royal Oak on CD last October. Yosemite Valley was withdrawn from a decent Naas race last Sunday due to the going, but this will not be an issue at Longchamp. Another one who was impressive LTO, albeit in a listed race, but is lightly raced and progressive. Trusty/Stu VWD with the win/lay selections respectively. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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ttt
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