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George's 2024 Selection Thread

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Replies: 784
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 14 Jul 24 10:06
Good luck DG

Given the way they smashed into the one that fell at Market Rasen when clear, the betting should be revealing.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 14 Jul 24 10:58
Good point!

I am currently in Malta and they have shops called Izibet. Went to one this morning, max bet €25 eway @ 11-2!! Done the 3 shops within walking distance, will watch the betting on here near the off before having any on here.
By:
Tattcorner
When: 14 Jul 24 14:11
Weather looks okay today on live webcam, DG....

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/malta/malta/floriana/grand-harbour-valletta-waterfront.html
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 14 Jul 24 15:30
Yeah been hot since we arrived, didn't get to watch the race due to intermittent internet connection. Made enough for tonights meal. Cool
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 14 Jul 24 15:33
Is George B a pro punter?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Jul 24 14:15
DG, well done on the place.

Cardinal Scott, please see my opening post regarding the aims of the thread.

Good luck today.

Giorgio M, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 6.10 Wolverhampton

Giorgio M has been weak in the betting today for whatever reason but he's of a little interest back on the AW, with cheekpieces given a try. He returns to an artificial surface off a 4lb higher mark than for winning at Musselburgh (7f, good) in May, but he was initially rated 2lb higher than today's mark having run well here and at Kempton over 6f on his first two starts. He was quickly dropped 6lb though after a couple of seemingly disappointing efforts - on his handicap debut at Kempton over a mile, and then when finishing 4th of 11 in a novice here over 6f here in December - but the latter effort probably wanted marking up considering he endured a tough trip from a wide draw and only dropped out of the places late on. There are mixed messages from that course form but the second comfortably won a novice on his next start and has since gone close in a Newmarket handicap.

It could be Giorgio M's mark is about right now but some of his all-weather form suggests there are races to be won with him on synthetics and interesting to see how he goes back here now he's a more hardened performer.

Ormolulu, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 7.20 Windsor (4 PLACES)

Ormolulu probably ran a bit better than her finishing position suggested at Newbury (6f, g-f) on her latest start given she raced down the centre on a day when there appeared to be some advantage in racing closer to the stands-side rail and wasn't helped by being bumped about into the final furlong, but was only beaten 2.5L into 6th place in what admittedly was a crowd scene at the finish. She actually finished one place behind Haziym and wouldn't be certain to reverse the form but that rival did end up challenging more towards the possibly favoured stands-side.

Ormolulu is into a higher grade today but she's back on her last winning mark and hopefully is at peak fitness now having had just the two previous runs this season.
By:
cobs101
When: 15 Jul 24 15:45
GL George, I've backed Havana Pusey in the 7.20 based on its last course win in a very good time. Taking 4 places ew as a bit worried about the draw Cool
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 15 Jul 24 18:13
WD George
By:
Brian
When: 15 Jul 24 18:17
The evening system goes in againGrin. Well done George
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Jul 24 18:38
Good luck Cobs.

Cheers guys, Giorgio M a winner for Giorgio B (as I'm known on the Italian Betfair forum).
By:
cobs101
When: 15 Jul 24 18:56
Ha ha, nice winner Giorgio Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 15 Jul 24 19:57
Well done on the place, Cobs.

Unfortunately a poor effort from Ormolulu, who sadly didn't want to make me 'Shout'. Her previous turf win had come on good to firm so perhaps could have could without the rain arriving, not that the time was particularly slow but the visual impression was that the rain might have been getting in. She's eligible for easier races than tonight's so might give her a second look another time.

2024 Running P/L: +89.15 pts
By:
cobs101
When: 15 Jul 24 20:01
Thanks, Havana was caught wide turning in as I feared might happen and from that point on I was happy enough to get my stake backCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 24 11:02
Wild Mountain, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 4.15 Ayr

Wild Mountain, who has been dropped two stone in the handicap since being trained in Ireland, suggested two starts back at Fairyhouse (6f, good) that some ability remains when finishing 6th of 18, on what was his second start for his current yard and in reapplied blinkers, when he fared best of the prominent racers and only dropped out of the places inside the last half-furlong. He could only finish 7th of 8 on his latest start at Down Royal but that came in a higher grade and when upped to 7f.

Wild Mountain is back down in trip and grade here, albeit he's eligible for weaker races than this one, but he looks worth chancing at a double-figure price based on that penultimate effort. His form for the Cole yard back in the day suggested he's probably a better horse on the all-weather, but he did post a joint-best RPR on turf for that yard.

Pledge Of Honour, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 8.20 Windsor (4 PLACES)

Pledge Of Honour is an 8YO who hasn't won for two years but has become well-handicapped on form from last season which included finishing second at York off a 17lb higher mark. Of his two runs back this season, he didn't shape too badly at Nottingham in June (10f, g-f) considering the run was probably needed, and although he didn't necessarily build on that when finishing 4th of 8 at Lingfield last-time-out (11.5f, g-f), it came in a higher grade over a trip that is probably further than ideal (all five career wins have come over 10f), and the winner has gone in again since.

He is now eligible for races even weaker than this 0-67, but he has his ideal conditions of 10f on quick ground, and while his record here of 0-4 doesn't inspire confidence, he unseated on one of the occasions, one run came on unsuitably soft ground, one run came in a very competitive Racing League handicap (RPR 74), and he was returning from a short break on the other occasion. Pledge Of Honour can be slowly away which certainly wouldn't help around here, but hopefully with Lawn Ranger and Mr Zee in the field, this won't be run at a dawdle.
By:
cobs101
When: 22 Jul 24 13:08
I've had a bit on Pledge of Honour today. His LTO run at Ling looked disappointing but was the best LTO figure of any of these. His run at Windsor last August was obviously in a way better race than this and he actually ran a fast time despite the distance beaten. Mr Zee has drifted quite badly this morning but might also go well in this at a wild price. GL Cool
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 22 Jul 24 13:40
I've done Earn Your Stripes in the 4.15. Got 40-1 3 places, went out to 150-1 on here but now 16s!

One other system bet, Battleofbaltimore 7.30B  11-1 3 places.

Did you see the juvenile hurdle at N.A. yesterday, yet another odds on failure from the race on June 25th at the same track. I'd like to say I got the winner and the forecast yesterday but that would be after-timing.

GL today George.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 24 15:10
Good luck Cobs & DG.

I didn't see it, DG, as I didn't have any qualifiers in it. Hopefully I'll a few more running this season than was the case the last one.
Well done with the winner and forecast.
By:
chavman
When: 22 Jul 24 20:24
WD followed you in and doubled with adace in e/w double
By:
swiftynifty
When: 22 Jul 24 20:25
cracking tip GEORGE and cobs
By:
cobs101
When: 22 Jul 24 21:08
Thanks swifty and nice pick George, WD Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 24 21:46
Well done Cobs & chav

Cheers Swifty

Wild Mountain managed to hold on for a place, though he might not have had Novello Lad not been withdrawn (30p Rule 4).

The market vibes (Betfair SP 18.2, ISP 12-1) weren't great for Pledge Of Honour, particularly given his yard had a well backed winner at Nottingham the other day, but he managed to sustain his run down the outer from a seemingly unpromising position to prevail.

2024 Running P/L: +104.23 pts
By:
Virgin
When: 22 Jul 24 23:22
Wd George  HappyCool gl ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Jul 24 12:57
Cheers Virgin.
Good luck today.

Winchurch, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.00 Lingfield

It was just a 4-runner contest in which Winchurch was sent off a well-backed favourite to make a winning debut at Southwell (5f) in April, and he seemingly hasn't gone on in two starts since on turf, but the latest of them which came in the relatively valuable Rous seller at York (6f, g-s) when upped in trip, might have wanted marking up despite ending up well beaten, considering he showed good speed down the centre of the track to lead before being headed a furlong out, on a day when there might have been a slight advantage in challenging more towards the stands-side; also the run might have been needed as he was returning from a short break and he was carrying a 3lb penalty.

The return to 5f and the all-weather should suit for his nursery debut, and while the draw hasn't been kind, a chance is taken at a double-figure price.

Lightning Bay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.40 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)

Lightning Bay is still a maiden after eleven starts but has shown enough to suggest there should be a win in him at a modest level, notably at Lingfield (AW, one mile) in April when just failing to get up against an unexposed filly from the Charlton yard who was following up a last-time-out win and who has won again since.

Lightning Bay still has his stamina to prove over this 9.5f trip, but he shapes as though he should stay it, and was returning from over seven weeks off and had been ridden aggressively when fading out of the places late on over C/D last month. The selection disappointed when dropped in trip last-time-out to 7f but wasn't helped by being drawn and racing wide.

This looks quite competitive with a few relatively unexposed ones among the opposition, but Silvestre de Sousa looks a reasonably positive booking (7-40 for the yard last five seasons) and hopefully can get into a good rhythm from a handy draw in four.
By:
Tattcorner
When: 23 Jul 24 17:41
Well done yesterday and a decent placer to kick off today...good luck with the last Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Jul 24 21:14
Thank you Tattcorner

A frustrating day with a couple of seconds that didn't enjoy the smoothest of passages. Oh well, that's racing, take it on the chin and move on.

2024 Running P/L: +109.03 pts
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 23 Jul 24 21:38
WD George
By:
swiftynifty
When: 23 Jul 24 21:40
good place double there.
By:
cobs101
When: 23 Jul 24 21:40
WD, Unlucky today GeorgeCool
By:
Virgin
When: 23 Jul 24 21:49
Wd George HappyHappy gl ....
By:
Virgin
When: 23 Jul 24 21:49
Wd George HappyHappy gl ....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 25 Jul 24 12:46
Cheers all.
Good luck today.

Cape Bridgewater, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.20 Leopardstown (4 PLACES)

Cape Bridgewater was one of the lesser lights during his time at Ballydoyle, initially rated 86, though did win a Tipperary maiden (12.5, good) in a manner that suggested he's a strong stayer at the trip.

He seemingly hasn't been in much form this year for his current yard under both codes, however, there was more encouragement on his latest Flat start at Listowel (good) last month when stepped up to two miles with Colin Keane aboard, as he was trying to make headway into contention but found his path blocked under 2f out and whatever chance he had was then gone. The champion jockey jumps ship this time but as Shane Foley rides plenty for the yard, it's unclear whether Keane would have had the choice or not. The selection has since run poorly over hurdles at Bellewstown, but maybe that tight track wasn't for him.

A potential negative to Cape Bridgewater's chance could be the ground as he has been withdrawn on soft ground once before, but hopefully it won't be too bad as it's currently being given as good to yielding, yielding in places. He 's now 13lb below his initial mark and may have untapped potential at longer trips, so despite a concern about the ground for him, a chance is taken at a double-figure price.

Hill Station, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.45 Newbury (4 PLACES)

Hill Station is just an each-way play at the prices. He seemingly doesn't have many secrets at this stage and has been kept mainly to the all-weather, but it wasn't a bad effort on his latest start at Lingfield (11.5, g-f) on what was just his fourth turf run on the level and first on good to firm, when, although no match for the winner (who has won again since and runs in a Racing League handicap this evening), he kept on well for second place with a subsequent winner (Pledge Of Honour, who admittedly was running over a trip further than ideal) back in fourth place.

Hill Station's four career wins have come on the all-weather and is 3lb above his highest winning-mark, but has shown himself generally to be a tough and consistent sort for his current yard, and that latest start suggested there may be a win in him on grass.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 25 Jul 24 22:04
A woeful effort from Cape Bridgewater, which was predicted by the betting market as he drifted out to a Betfair SP of 78.

Hill Station just wouldn't settle in front but still held every chance into the final furlong, but alas he eventually paid the price for racing too enthusiastically and lost 4th place late on.

2024 Running P/L: +105.03 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Jul 24 12:27
Hosaamm, 1pt win @ 7-2, 3.35 Ascot

Hosaamm impressed when winning a 10f Newbury maiden on good ground on his reappearance, in what was a well-run contest, over two seconds quicker than the class 3 handicap over the same trip on the card for older horses, he ran on strongly to defeat a Roger Varian-trained colt, who was subsequently purchased by Wathnan Racing and then wasn't disgraced in a heritage handicap at Royal Ascot.

Hosaamm's only start since came in a Doncaster novice on easier ground when upped in trip to 12f, and although he was ultimately no match for a Ralph Beckett-trained daughter of Nathaniel, that filly (Oxford Comma) looks very promising and holds a Group 2 entry at Glorious Goodwood next week.

The selection isn't short of stamina on the distaff side of his pedigree with his dam being a sister to Gold Cup runner-up Nayef Road, and hopefully there is further progress to come after just three starts.

Von Baer, 1pt win @ 5-1, 8.45 Sandown

Von Baer was another to make an encouraging reappearance, in his case a running-on third at Kempton (7f), whilst shaping as though a stiffer test may suit. His two runs since on soft ground have seemingly been disappointing, but the first of them when finishing a well-held third of five at Haydock (one mile) doesn't look as bad now considering the winner went on to win a heritage handicap and is now rated over 100; and last-time-out at Sandown the selection was returning from a break and gelding operation over a trip (10f) that might have stretched him in the conditions.

It's not clear what his ideal conditions are, but hopefully this slight ease in grade and better ground can help, and he can start to build on that promising return.
By:
Tattcorner
When: 26 Jul 24 21:13
Nice winner to finish the day, George.  Not sure why the first one disappointed as well supported in the day.
By:
cobs101
When: 26 Jul 24 21:28
Nice one George, even though I was on the 2nd!Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 26 Jul 24 21:48
Thanks Tattcorner and Cobs.

Von Baer (SP 6-1) did well to win given he'd been keen enough and how the race panned out.

Not sure what to make of Hosaamm, as he didn't pick up in the home straight but then seemed to finish with running left in him despite finishing last of the 8 runners, beaten over 6L. A bit to prove after that but it'll be interesting to see where he turns up next.

2024 Running P/L: +110.03 pts
By:
toffee man
When: 27 Jul 24 11:16
well done george
By:
chavman
When: 27 Jul 24 11:24
WD george.

i remember this getting hammered into on debut and flopped,so obviously thought better of than its runs until yesterday.

breaking 100 points is a fantastic achievement and i can honestly say hand on heart that you are definitely the second best on the forum.

well done again.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Jul 24 11:29
cheers toffee man and chav.

PM chav
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 27 Jul 24 12:00
Three Beauz, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Three Beauz didn't shape too badly on her debut for Rebecca Menzies last August, but only ran once more last year and has been poor in three starts back this season, so it takes a leap of faith to back her. However, there are some straws to cluctch at today, as she's unexposed on the all-weather and is 17lb lower than when finishing third of 13 at Southwell in April of last year, which was the only previous time today's jockey Dylan Hogan has ridden her; this will be the first time she's raced on an artificial surface since. The selection drops into a 0-57 grade for the first time and a tongue-tie is applied.

Miss Tiki, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.45 Lingfield

Miss Tiki had caught the eye a couple of times this season not getting the clearest of runs in the home straight at Chelmsford (14f), and I took a chance on her last-time-out on the turf track here even though she was running on unfavourable terms in a classified stakes and the drop in trip to 11.5f wasn't sure to suit, and she was never involved, making only limited late-headway.

Miss Tiki still has to prove her stamina for today's trip of two miles but looks worth a try over it, and even though she's having to race from out of the handicap today (as she had at Chelmsford both times), this still looks a more realistic assignment than last time. The ground should be fine for her as she was a 12f winner on good to firm at Brighton in 2021 when trained by Richard Hughes.
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