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George's 2024 Selection Thread
George's 2024 Selection Thread
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Enchanted Night, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.08 Leicester
Enchanted Night is 6YO mare who's only 1 from 43, though she hasn't always had the rub of the green in some of her races, and she's of interest here based on her reappearance run at Yarmouth in April (5f, g-f) when although she could only finish 9th of the ten runners, she was only beaten 3.5L when racing from 12lb out of the handicap in a 0-80, and that was the only time Mia Nicholls has ridden her, who's back on board today for this 0-52 contest. It has to be said that like some of her stablemates before her, Enchanted Night does seem to save her better efforts for Yarmouth, and she hasn't backed that effort up in two starts since elsewhere, but she makes a bit of each-way appeal here with Nicholls back on board and taking the 5lb off in this apprentice handicap. Candy Warhol, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 7.00 Wolverhampton Candy Warhol is still a maiden after sixteen starts, fourteen of which have come on the all-weather, but a couple of his better efforts have come over this evening's C/D, in February when never too far away from a solid gallop before leading turning for home and battling on well, only to be caught in the final stride by one who had been held up off the pace and was following up a recent victory, with a subsequent winner in third, and the first four pulling well clear; and last-time-out when only being caught late on by Bora Bora (who he meets on 1lb better terms), with Streak Lightning (who didn't get a clear run) in third. There shouldn't be much between the three of them again, but presumably Candy Warhol will be ridden forward and out of trouble, so if Phil Dennis (who was last aboard the horse for that good effort here in February) can get the fractions right, hopefully he can hang on at least for a place. Almaty Star, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 7.15 Lingfield (3 PLACES) Almaty Star didn't shape too badly on his reappearance and second start for Robert Cowell in a competitive handicap at Kempton (6f) in April, when he disputed a decent gallop before losing second place around a furlong out and weakening out of it, perhaps the run being needed. He's run okay in three starts since on turf including twice in higher grades, but he's of interest back on the all-weather as his three best RPRs when trained by Roger Varian came on Polytrack, including over C/D when he won a maiden at long odds-on. He obviously has to show he can match those efforts for his current yard, but returns to the all-weather off a 6lb lower mark than for that encouraging reappearance run, the drop back to 5f should suit, Hollie Doyle rides for the first time and cheekpieces are given a try. |
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GL George, I've backed Candy Warhol ew 4 places too, comes out well on my figures
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Was hopeful the apparent front running bias might give Candy a chance. Ran well but couldn't finish off. Some solid place selections today George
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Well done with the place, Cobs.
The good news was that Enchanted Night ran on well into a closing third, but the bad news was that the 50-1 'rag' had to be taken out of the stalls and withdrawn, which reduced the field to seven runners. Character building. Candy Warhol put in another solid effort to come out best of the three that had filled the frame over C/D 36 days ago, but unfortunately for me, the fav, who had been threatening to win one for a while, chose tonight to do it. Almaty Star (10p Rule 4) gave it a good shot from the front, but having stuck to the dead rail in the home straight, was another to be run down by the fav. And after all that returned a loss on the day of -0.2. 2024 Running P/L: +124.35 pts |
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Arantes Nascimento, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 3.55 Hamilton
Arantes Nascimento was stepped up slightly in trip to 8.5f for his latest start at Nottingham (8.5f, good) in what appeared a well run contest that set up for a couple of the closers to come to the fore, run in a time that was only slightly slower than the higher grade race for older horses on the card over the same trip, and the selection ran an odd sort of race, having sat close to the pace before becoming outpaced in the straight and then keeping on well to go fourth close home, suggesting he could have untapped potential at trips beyond a mile. It has to be said the form could be working out better and he's into a slightly higher grade today, but he's been dropped a pound and this further slight step up in trip promises to suit provided he doesn't get too far behind on the downhill run. Miss Tiki, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 6.15 Chelmsford (4 PLACES) Miss Tiki was only beaten 2.5L on her latest start when finishing fourth of ten over C/D early last month, when like this evening she was racing from out of the handicap, and while that form leaves her with a bit of ground to make up on Merry Minister who finished second, the selection probably would have finished closer but for meeting with trouble over a furlong out. She might have been flattered to an extent having sat off the pace, but it was her first attempt at 14f and she was rated higher when a 12f winner at Brighton for Richard Hughes back in 2021. Miss Tiki has to back that effort up but she looks worth chancing at the prices. |
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Arantes Nascimento, who was friendless in the betting, going out to around 30 on here, adopted a good position based on how the race panned out, but emptied out quickly on the uphill run, so either I was badly wrong about the stamina angle or something wasn't right with the horse.
As for the 6.15, they'd evidently slowed the pace right down as it resembled a crowd scene as the field turned into the home straight tightly packed, and Miss Tiki who had been held up, found her path blocked as she tried to make some headway over a furlong out and lost all chance. 2024 Running P/L: +120.35 pts |
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Bright Dick, 1 pt EW @ 33-1, 5.15 Navan (6 PLACES)
Bright Dick did the thread a favour when he won at Dundalk over a mile in April, and of his two starts since, he ran okay back there when perhaps the race didn't pan out as well, then last time at Leopardstown he couldn't get involved from off the pace. He's of a little interest here trying ten furlongs as he has shaped on occasions as though he will stay beyond a mile, notably at Galway (8.5f, yielding) last August when finishing he race off strongly after not getting a clear run. He's been weak in the betting this morning, and a concern I have is that he might not want the ground too quick, but a chance is taken at the odds as he may have untapped potential over this sort of distance. Youarenotforgiven, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 7.00 Chepstow (4 PLACES) Youarenotforgiven is 4-10 on ground good or quicker, so it's possible that as well as having needed a couple of runs back this campaign, he has been finding the ground too slow. Hopefully he will find tonight's going more to his liking, and he has dropped below his last winning mark. His stable are in form having had five winners in the last couple of days, and while there is a query about whether Chepstow suits having finished well held in one previous start here, that did come on his 2023 reappearance over a trip short of his best and on easy ground. |
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A couple of disappointing ones.
I took a chance on Bright Dick despite not being sure quick ground is for him and he offered nothing on this occasion. Youarenotforgiven has become well handicapped and did appear to have suitable ground conditions but his finishing effort was lackluster, so unless Chepstow isn't for him, he didn't look in much form here. 2024 Running P/L: +116.35 pts |
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Roysdelight, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 3.20 Goodwood
Roysdelight, who started off in the Brocklesby, seems to be improving with racing and it didn't look a bad effort on his latest start at Salisbury (5f, good) when always on a contested pace and sticking to his task well before finishing a close-up fourth. It has to be said a couple from the race who have run since haven't done much for the form, but on the plus side, the winner had previously been an impressive winner at Wolverhampton and had a 5lb claimer up to offset much of her penalty. Hopefully, Roysdelight will continue to go the right way and the early pace he showed at Salisbury will stand him good stead for this sharper test. He is the stable second-string according to the betting, with Oisin Murphy riding the yard's other runner in this valuable seller, but Rossa Ryan is an equally positive booking for the selection. |
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Roysdelight got into a good rhythm in the lead but his finishing effort was deflating considering how well he'd kept on at Salisbury.
2024 Running P/L: +114.35 pts |
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No Surrender, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.35 Lingfield
No Surrender's latest piece form when he could only finish 7th of 12 and beaten 22L at Newcastle (12.5f), doesn't look very appealing, but it doesn't tell the full story as in a competitive handicap he had been up on the pace with Fairbanks, who had set a strong gallop and kept on relentlessly with the field strung out behind him, and the selection was still in second place under 2f out before weakening out of it; that was No Surrender's first attempt at 12.5f so does still have his stamina to prove but today's easier test at 12f should help. No Surrender wears first-time blinkers today so it has to be hoped they don't light him up too much given the stamina query, but he remains unexposed on artificial surfaces having made the frame in two previous runs on Polytrack over a mile, and this is a drop in class off a 3lb lower mark. Mykonos St John, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.35 Lingfield Mykonos St John hasn't looked in much form of late but he's of a little interest back at Lingfield having finished second over C/D in November off an 11lb higher mark, when perhaps his effort could be marked up having had to work to get into a prominent pitch from a wide draw and been caught on the outer. This took his record to a win and two places at the track from eight starts, and he might have had an excuse when running disappointingly here in December as he reportedly bled from the nose. He is now eligible for weaker races than this one but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope that a return to this venue can spark a better performance, with a first-time visor applied and Kieran O'Neill riding him for the first time. Tasever, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 8.30 Pontefract (4 PLACES) It looked a good effort from Tasever over a mile here (good to soft) in October when rated 63 and running in a 0-82, when just failing to by a nose to reel in the leader, with the first three pulling clear. He's failed to back this effort up in five starts since but soft / heavy ground / Tapeta may excuse four of them, and he caught the eye at Beverley on his second start this campaign back on a sound surface when not getting the clearest of runs and shaping as though he would have finished a lot closer with any luck in the run. Tasever has his stamina to prove for 10f and he wouldn't want the going to soften too much but that last course effort makes him look well handicapped off a mark of 58 and running in a 0-62. |
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GL today George, hoping you can get back on the winning trail with Tasever whose last course figure is as good as any of these have done in any race in the last 18 months. Hoping he races not too far back from this draw, will back him win and 4 places.
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Sadly, Cobs, not today for Tasever, who was held up again on this step up in trip and was unable to get involved. He did meet with a bit of argy bargy turning in but it made little difference.
No Surrender was a bit keen facing the breeze in the first-time blinkers on the sharp end and offered little resistance once headed turning in and folded tamely. He possibly doesn't stay the trip but whatever the way he capitulated was disappointing. Mykonos St John didn't run too badly considering he's eligible for lower grades and probably wasn't helped by sticking to the dead rail in the home straight, but could only finish 5th on this occasion. 2024 Running P/L: +108.35 pts |
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Lakota Brave, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 4.00 Yarmouth
Lakota Brave had been progressive in three starts on the all-weather (RPRs of 72, 76 and 79) but appeared to take his form to a higher level (RPR of 91) when finishing runner-up on his turf debut at Bath (one mile, soft) in April, with a subsequent winner three lengths behind him in third, doing well in the circumstances considering he'd been keen enough, and if anything, suggesting he might be worth another try over further given how well he stuck to his task once headed, though is kept to a mile today. Lakota Brave has since been a bit disappointing in a competitive mile handicap at Kempton (even though according to RPRs (78) he was just about on par with his previous AW efforts), in a race where Baltimore Boy finished third, but he is of interest back on turf being unexposed on grass and running off the same mark of 84 as for that good Bath effort. |
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GL George, think Bold Ribb might outrun his odds after a break but not much market support...
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Good luck Cobs
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2024 Running P/L: +106.35 pts
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Alabama Calling, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.00 Leopardstown (4 PLACES)
Alabama Calling had caught the eye at Dundalk (one mile handicap) in April, when against mainly older opposition and from a wide draw, she fared best of the hold-up horses in keeping on well for a clear second behind one who had the benefit of a good 7lb claimer aboard. She still looked green (or not straightforward) that day on what was just her fifth start, suggesting there would be improvement to come and she duly won a Limerick maiden (one mile, soft-heavy) on her next start, and while that didn't look a great contest, the fourth has since won a 14-runner maiden at Gowran (on better ground) and been allocated a rating of 85. Alabama Calling's mark has gone up 7lb to 73 for that maiden win ahead of this return to handicap company, but she appears to be improving, has shown herself to be versatile regarding going, a 5lb claimer is enlisted, and this step up to 9f may eke out further improvement, granted her wide draw doesn't prove to be a disadvantage. |
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Wd 2nd George
 gl ... |
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Cheers Virgin.
I wouldn't say she looks ungenuine but still appears a bit gawky, but she had her chance and found one too good. 2024 Running P/L: +107.45 pts |
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Close GB
Points on board Beaten by a plotter |
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Indeed, Mad'. Good luck today.
Rating, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 4.25 Sandown Rating disappointed on her latest start at Kempton when running no sort of race, but had done enough to suggest she had trained on when making the frame in a handicap at the Craven meeting (7f, good) and faring best of the five which had raced far side. One of her better runs as a juvenile came over today's C/D in September when she was one of three to pull clear, faring much the best of those ridden prominently. Sean Leavey, who was aboard then and for that reappearance run, is back in the plate today. Rating is looking relatively exposed at this stage but this is a drop in grade and she's proved she can run well over this C/D. Tom The Plasterer, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.30 Fairyhouse (4 PLACES) Tom The Plasterer is a seven-year-old who has only had the ten career starts to date and he's of interest here based on the penultimate one when finishing fourth of 21 at Leopardstown (12f, good) and behind both Tudor Manor and Enquire Within, who finished first and second respectively. The selection came in for late market support on that occasion at big prices and the money wasn't far wrong as he fared best of those ridden prominently. When apprentice claims are taken into consideration he meets the winner on 9lb better terms for that 2.75L defeat and 6lb better terms with the runner-up for 1.5L. Tom The Plasterer has since diappointed at Tipperary when he might have found the soft ground against him (in a race where L'un Deux Trois finished third), and his stable also run a shorter-priced contender, Dark Street, in this, but in the hope the ground doesn't deteriorate too much more (still being given as good to firm in places at the time of posting), he makes a bit of each-way appeal at the prices. |
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Good place yesterday George, WD. I've also backed Rating ew today based on the course run you mention, GL
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Cheers Cobs and good luck with Rating. Bit of a tricky draw but one has come out which was drawn lower, so now drawn 10/10.
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Rating, who looked like a little pony when racing alongside the winner, was a bit disappointing, not able to make the frame even with the short-priced fav having been withdrawn, weakening out of it into fifth place.
No complaints about the ground for Tom The Plasterer, but whereas he had plenty of use made of him when running well at Leopardstown in a big field, he wasn't able to get near the front this time and could only plug on into a never-threatening 6th place. 2024 Running P/L: +103.45 pts |
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King of Fury, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 2.40 Doncaster
It was only a five-runner affair that King Of Fury finished second in on his penultimate start at Yarmouth (7f, good), but it was a 0-85 and the winner was the heavily-backed Wild Tiger, who has since followed up in a stronger Goodwood handicap off a 7lb higher mark. The selection had been keen early on in the contest off a slow early pace but having become outpaced he stuck to his task well to finish second, albeit no match for the easy winner, and while the form in behind the winner is questionable, the selection showed enough to suggest there are handicaps to be won with him. I selected him last-time-out at Nottingham when he was upped in trip to 8.5f with a hood applied and Jim Crowley booked for the ride, but he was weak in the betting and didn't run any sort of race, with Crowley reporting that the gelding had hung right handed. It takes a leap of faith to support him after that but it looked too bad to be true, so he's given another chance with the hood quickly discarded and returned to a straight 7f. A stiff westerly breeze is forecast so it remains to be seen if any particular tactics are favoured on the day. Roman Secret, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.15 Thirsk (4 PLACES) Roman Secret had suggested that she might not be short of stamina when staying on well to finish second last October in a nursery at Nottingham on heavy ground when stepped up in trip to 8.5f and being one of three to pull clear. She then showed herself to be versatile regarding surface when winning at Wolverhampton over the same trip when defeating Dunstan (who has improved since over longer trips but does actually meet the selection on 9lb worse terms). Roman Secret reappeared eleven days ago at Nottingham (8.5f, g-f) when although she finished down the field, the trip looked sharp enough on the ground but she did keep on reasonably well having taken a keen hold in rear. This is a step up in class from that 0-76 into this 0-85, but the up in step to 12f looks well worth a try provided she settles better than she did on her reappearance. |
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Hi George I am delighted to keep reading the threads & seeing you still turning a profit, well done for that. I am going to stick my head above the parapet (Tin hat at the ready) & post a couple of mine own:
18.15 Thirsk Valley of Flowers at 16/1 is the NAP 17.45 Thirsk Tees Spirit at 18/1 looks a bit overpriced to me but is a slightly more speculative selection of the two & a health warning comes attached although I like them both big field handicaps are mot my forte. Good luck & hope yours run well. |
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Afternoon Micky, good to see you still looking in. Good luck with yours too.
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King Of Fury, who was solid in the betting this time, ambled along on the front end but when the sprint for home commenced he seemed to take an age to get organised before running on well for a close up 4th. I think if the jockey could ride the race again he'd be looking to wind him up sooner for an effort.
I thought there was a potential stamina angle in with Roman Secret, but perhaps this wasn't the ideal race to find out given she was up into class 3 company from class 5 and against male opposition on ground that wasn't too bad, which she is probably fine on but her turf win did come on heavy. She showed enough to suggest she'd be worth another go at the distance but found this company too hot on the going. 2024 Running P/L: +99.45 pts |
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Hopeful, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.40 Ascot (6 PLACES)
It looked a good effort from Hopeful on her latest start at Newmarket (one mile, good) when against mainly male opposition she went down only narrowly in third place in a race won by the thoroughly progressive Great Blasket, who has won again since, and to whom she was conceding 7lb. Hopeful is up in class today but against her own sex, is able to race off an unchanged mark, remains unexposed on turf, Mickael Barzalona is booked for the ride and hopefully no complaints about her draw in 20. Abu Royal, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.20 Nottingham (4 PLACES) Abu Royal was disappointing on his latest start at Windsor (10f, g-f) when sent off joint-favourite but he might have found the ground quick enough, and he's of interest on his previous run at Doncaster (12f, soft) over a trip that might have stretched him in the conditions, when he tried to match strides with Fiddlers Green who was 10lb well in and clearly relished conditions, but he paid the price for doing so, losing second place around 1.5f out and eventually dropping to 4th. The form has worked out with the second and third having won since. Abu Royal has won on good ground so should be fine if the ground dries out a little and this is a drop into class 6 company. Tasever, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 8.20 Nottingham (4 PLACES) Tasever has become a bit of a 'cliff' horse for me but no doubt he's a well-handicapped horse on at least one piece of form, namely when just failing to get up over a mile at Pontefract (g-s) last October when racing off a mark off 63 in a 0-82. His second run back this season also suggested there is a race to be won with him when catching the eye not getting a clear run at Beverley (8.5f, g-f). I selected him again last time back at Pontefract when he was upped in trip to 10f and he was a little disappointing in a race where Ballsbridge finished second. It could be Tasever is not the easiest but if this is one of his better days then running off a mark of 58 in a 0-62 should see him competitive back down in trip to 8.5f. |
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GL George, Hopeful has got the best LTO figure of these, hope it goes well for you, but I've taken a stab on a couple of longer priced ones with good course figures: Karsavina and Roarin Success
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GL George
Tasaever is my one bet today, but only 3 places. |
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Good luck Cobs & DG
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Wd George
?  gl ... |
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Ta Virgin
Unfortunately the field for the 7.20 was reduced to ten runners so no four places, which obviously fated Abu Royal to finish 4th and he duly did, running on late having got behind early. Hopeful was well supported in the betting and it was looking good when she hit the front under 2f out but one emerged from the pack to run her down late on, the pair over 4L clear. I think it's time to add Tasever's name to the rather bulky file entitled 'ones I got badly wrong'. 2024 Running P/L: +96.85 pts |
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Skellet, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.45 Ascot
Skellet is a half-sister to 7f 2YO Group 1 winner Skitter Scatter and she showed herself to be a useful juvenile, notably when finishing a close second to the Oaks runner-up Dance Sequence in the 7f Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket (7f, soft) last October. Skellet didn't reappear until the Irish 1000 Guineas when she could only finish 8th of the 13 runners, but the race didn't pan out well having been bumped / hampered early and then been poorly positioned towards the rear in a race where it paid to be ridden prominently, though did make a little late-headway. She still has to conclusively prove that she has trained on given her illustrious half-sister didn't really go as a 3YO, but it's not clear that her limitations have been exposed yet and interesting to see how she gets on here. Majestic Beauty, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 6.15 Ascot (6 PLACES) Majestic Beauty, who showed useful form when trained by Alice Haynes last season including when finishing runner-up in Listed Company at Newbury, was having her second start for her current yard when finishing runner-up last-time-out at the Curragh in a 5f premier handicap when trying to concede 12lb to Kendall Roy (who hasn't got in here as a reserve). The point about Kendall Roy is that he had been very impressive on quick ground at Windsor, but then only scrambled home when well in under a penalty on soft ground at Thirsk, before finishing second and a beaten favourite at Cork when the ground was given as 'good' but probably had some cut in it, and he then clearly appreciated being back on a sounder surface at the Curragh to record a career-best RPR, so it was probably a very good effort by Majestic Beauty considering the weight concession. This obviously isn't any easier having gone up 4lb and there being similarly unexposed male opposition further down the weights in this, but a chance is taken at the prices each-way with six places on offer. Her draw in three is a concern but hopefully can get a good tow into this from the speedy Dorny Lake who's drawn next to her in two. |
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Skellet well and truly had her limitations exposed, at least on quick ground. Her best effort had come on soft ground and watching her today she does appear to have a bit of a knee action, so maybe a bit of ease underfoot may help.
It looked a good effort last time in a premier handicap at the Curragh from Majestic Beauty, but today on the quickest ground she had encountered, she found this a bit too much eventually being eased off. 2024 Running P/L: +92.85 pts |
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Miss Tiki, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.00 Lingfield
Miss Tiki shaped as though she may be finding some form when not getting a clear run at Chelmsford (14f) on her penultimate start and not being beaten far into 4th place, and it was a similar story when I selected her last time out back over the same C/D when in a steadily run affair she got no luck up the home straight but again shaped as though she was in some sort of form. She's not favoured by the weights in this 0-50 classified stakes and not sure this drop back in trip to 11.5f is ideal, but she was a winner off a mark of 55 at Brighton (12f, g-f) back in 2021 when trained by Richard Hughes, so has the back-form to be competitive in this if building on those last couple of encouraging runs. King Of Angels, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 7.10 Haydock King Of Angels shaped better than the bare result on his debut at Chester's May meeting (6f, good) considering he had a tough trip from a tough draw but was still disputing second place inside the final furlong before finishing 4th. The form has worked out incredibly well with the winner Teej A winning the Woodcote Stakes and the runner-up Rashabar winning the Coventry. King Of Angels seemingly disappointed when finishing a well-held third of six back over the same C/D but the easier ground might not have suited, he wasn't well drawn and the form probably isn't too bad anyway with the winner Columnist going on to finish third in the Coventry. King Of Angels is up in trip to 7f this evening, isn't well drawn and apprentice Joe leavy can't claim his allowance in this class 2 contest, but a chance is taken at the prices with that debut promise still fresh in the memory and the Chester form having worked out so well. |
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King Of Angels had to be withdrawn after playing up in the stalls.
I took a chance on Miss Tiki at the prices even though the drop in trip didn't look ideal, particularly on quick ground, and that was how it looked with her only able to make a bit of late headway. 2024 Running P/L: +90.85 pts |
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Divina Grace, 1pt EW @ 17-2, 3.00 Pontefract (4 PLACES)
Divinia Grace made an encouraging reappearance at Goodwood under top weight when finishing third behind Ayyab (who she meets here on 5lb better terms for 1.5L), and although she could only finish fourth behind male opposition when upped in grade to a class 2 handicap and sent off 6-4 favourite last time out at Haydock, it's likely the overnight rain was against her. Some of her form reads quite well from last season, notably a defeat of Crystal Delight at Newmarket on quick ground in a class 2 handicap, and while that horse might have improved for a change of yard this season, he is now rated 20lb higher. Divinia Grace is upped in class to Listed level today and has plenty to find on official ratings with the favourite River Of Stars, but the quicker the ground the better for her, she should be able to get to the rail from her draw in three and this course promises to suit her grinding style. |