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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24

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Replies: 764
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 13:27
I think he confirmed that he has plenty of talent, but he also looked as he was quite a way off taking a step up in the class. I would imagine another ordinary novice up in trip would be next on his agenda. Unless he grows up very quickly it wouldn't be a surprise if the Festivals are not on his target list this season.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 13:45
By far the most interesting horse of the day and the Racing TV plank doesn't appear to have got any follow up information. What's the point of being there?
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 23 14:32
Good positive ride from Sam T-D on Alfie's Princess. Hard to judge mares until they race against geldings but giving 7lb, it has to be a decent effort.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 16:24
Anno Power travelled like much the best in the last race, but having been keen for the first half you had a fair idea that might happen. Typical Woods saving the bookmakers again.

I would mark up Gidleigh Park a little more given a number of the Fry runners didn't see out their races today.

At Leicester, Hasthing jumped poorly, and was unimpressive in landing the short odds. The second, Rocket Ronald, looks a nice chasing type, and ran through the line much more strongly than the winner.

Although we didn't have time for any comment from the connections of Gidleigh Park, Racing TV did find time for Nicholls to confirm that it was 'laughable' that anyone should query that his stable jockey wasn't riding the stable's highest profile horse in a Grade 1 race. I would say that response was laughable. At times a total bag of wind.

Henderson/De Boinville on fire. What was that about Henderson horses wanting quick ground?

Another one being trotted out is how good is the Festival Bumper? If you dig a bit deeper I think Encanto Bruno is the only one to have won at odds against.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 23 16:39
I have not seen the first at Exeter yet but agree that Fry is not in much form yet. I also agree completely with Paul Nicholls that to suggest that Harry Cobden had been jocked off is ridiculous when he has 5 big chances at Ascot worth more prize money in total that the Betfair. Harry also has designs on the championship this year.
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 20 Nov 23 16:45
Paul Nicholls said there was no doubt Harry Cobden would return to riding Bravemansgame in future races and that a superior book of rides at Ascot on the same afternoon for his stable jockey was the sole reason he was not riding in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase (3.00) at Haydock on Saturday.
By:
shoodacoodadidnt
When: 20 Nov 23 16:45
I assume we're referring to the Greatwood. So why WAS Cobden on 28/1 shot PU and Gingell on better fancied Sonogino 11/1 4th???
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 16:54
You would expect the stable jockey to ride the best horse in the yard in a Grade 1 race irrespective of the number of rides he had at Ascot. That's why the question was rightly asked. It's very hard to believe he would only have had one ride at Haydock.
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 20 Nov 23 16:55
Nicholls said: "Harry's going to Ascot and he's got six good rides there. We've always had Pic D'Orhy in mind for Ascot, and Johnny's got 15 or 16 very nice horses in training with us and he needs looking after. Harry is very important to Pic D'Orhy, probably more so than the other way round with Bravemansgame.

"Sometimes when you have big meetings on a Saturday you have to make decisions that are right for everyone. I spoke to Bryan [Drew, owner of Bravemansgame] in depth and Harry, and he's got six good rides at Ascot including Pic D'Orhy in that big race so it was an easy decision. We'll let someone else have a ride of Bravemansgame so if in the future Harry's
not able to ride him then we have someone used to riding him and there's a first reserve, as it were."

Sounds fair enough to me.
By:
duffy
When: 20 Nov 23 17:21
Agree with dd, Cobden not riding BMG is strange, no reason makes any sense, trying to come up with justification that involves riding Pic D'orhy of all horses is laughable, BMG is the best horse in the stable that is being aimed at the best races, the fact that they are coming off an unexpected defeat just adds to the suspicion that there is more to it.

Even if it is as Nicholls paints it he is giving himself a potential problem, what happens if BMG and the "reserve" get on like a house on fire, there will then be talk on him keeping the ride, the owner might think, well Harry can go off on Boxing Day and chase the Championship somewhere else.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 19:13
The problem I had was that he seemed incredulous that anyone should have the temerity to actually ask the question. It's constantly trotted out how helpful he is, but the impression I get is the media are terrified to step out of line with him. The 'interview' on Racing TV was much more of an announcement.

Anyway, on to tomorrow. Not too much quality on show, but a quick trot through the novices and bumpers, starting with Lingfield.

Illico De Cotte judged on his point win looks a point and fire galloper. Just the type you wouldn't want with Skelton if you were actually interested in winning a staying novice hurdle. It could be a case of come back in two years. Top Kap is of some interest having started favourite for an Exeter bumper for Lacey. I probably should have had enough of JP by now, but I have taken an extra place on a Aworkinprogress, the owners latest attempt to prop up Gifford. The small field point race he finished fourth in could easily have been a better race than tomorrow's novice. To be fair one or two from the Gifford stable have run quite well recently. McLernon is an improvement on his usual jocks. Nothing much at Fakenham. Bit surprised Ben Jones is there rather than riding Just A Dime at Lingfield. It looks like quick ground at Hereford. That might help the two flat breds against the jump bred in the opener. Aston Martini won what was likely a weak bumper, but will go off short given the stable form. Realisation would hold every chance on her bumper win, but faded very tamely on her hurdling debut. Perhaps the addition of Cobden can relit the fuse? The closing bumper doesn't look too hot. I have taken a chance on Walkingoneggshells who seemed to improve for better ground last time. It's a bit further back in his pedigree than Gidleigh Park, but he also hails from the Denman family. No doubt desperate ground at Limerick where anything like a reproduction of his second to An Tobar should see Champagne Admiral take the maiden.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 23 20:11
I really can't agree dd and I usually do agree with you. Why would Cobden and Nicholls go all the way to Haydock for one race when they could nearly go through the card at Ascot? I don't see that a Grade 1 race is any better than several valuable races. Pic D'orhy is a serious horse and so is Blueking D'Oroux so they won't want to upset Mr De La Hay who also has Sammarive and Welcome to Cartries entered. Add the possibility of rain at Haydock which could mean that Bravemansgame might not run and it is a no brainer. Paul was rightly annoyed that the media seemed not to believe his reasonable explanation.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 20:35
The only explanation I can see is that Bravemansgame going for the Betfair was something of an afterthought, and the other big shot owner had assumed Cobden was already committed to ride his Ascot horses. Just looked at the declarations and Cobden will be doing well to get two winners. He could easily end up with nothing.

Just found out that Iroko is out for the season. Wonder when that actually happened. Maybe if I back all of JP's I could stop him getting any winners at all? Seriously, if there is any more unlucky ante-post backer than myself please sign in. Last year I lost The Nice Guy almost immediately from the same race. Iroko followed Mullins about turn with Gaelic Warrior, and the Corach Rambler Kelso debacle. It feels like I need to be punished umpteen times to get the odd one over the line.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 23 20:43
I think the last time I backed a winner ante post was Collier Bay! These days I just lay anything at less than 2/1 for a Festival race up to Christmas. Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bravemansgame has lost his last 3 races.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 21:32
Without looking it up I think I was on Collier Bay at something like 25/1, but I have managed the odd one in the meantime.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Nov 23 21:54
Finally caught the Harry Fry interview. Pretty much in keeping with my work in progress summation. That said he did mention a two mile race at Cheltenham as a possible next target. The trainer should have a much better idea than me, but I hope he doesn't go that route. I think the horse needs to just continue on an upward curve. If he doesn't have the tools and speed to cope with two miles at Cheltenham that experience could effectively finish his season.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Nov 23 08:00
I was also on CB at 25/1 for Cheltenham before he won the Irish CH and had a bit more at 10/1 on the day. It made up for the defeat of Cima by Dawn Run which stung a bit. That was the first big race won by a mare getting the 7lb allowance and she only beat Cima half a length.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Nov 23 09:21
Just for completion purposes I think Field A Thistles looks the one for the Limerick bumper. She wasn't given the best of rides last time in a stronger looking Galway bumper that turned into something of a burn up. As I have said before you couldn't back any O'Connell runner at the moment. Amazing that Racing TV pundits were quite happy to talk up his Cheltenham bumper runner without making any reference to stablev form.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Nov 23 11:45
Most of the suggestions at least solid in the market with the notable exception of Aworkinprogress. If he reproduces the point run then 25/1 is a ridiculous price. The winner of that race would be 1/5 to beat this lot. The market suggests he clearly isn't going to be reproducing that run at least today.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Nov 23 13:03
Sao Carlos in the next at Lingfield could be anything. Big spending owner and yard in form.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Nov 23 16:32
I think it's safe to say Illico De Cotte should have won. Someone needs to point out to Skelton that point and fire on a galloper is not just sitting on the front end. Consequently, the winner turned in travelling much the best. Even so it was still disappointing that Skelton couldn't get the favourite home given that Deutsch isn't the strongest in a finish. Lining up well off the leaders you soon knew why there was nothing for Aworkinprogress. He moved up for about two seconds three out, but that was as good as it got. He looks the part, and perhaps over two and a half miles on good ground he might one day come good. The market will probably tell the story as this is a yard that now only seems to exist by landing the occasion gamble. No monetary involvement in Hereford's opener, but I felt a bit sorry for Court In The Act. It might have been a lot closer had he not been harried by a 300/1 shot who not surprisingly tailed off and pulled up. My star of the day was Aston Martini. That was effortless, she glided round. Not sure what the target is, but she might be able to drop back in trip (it's a high class staying family), and no surprise if she is graded class. She was put in at 25/1 for the Mares' Novice. Realisation looks to have gone backwards. Walkingoneggshells was very well backed. I think the idea was to try to make all, but Woods soon put a stop to that idea. As it was she found nothing off the bridle, and Scholfield barely rode her through the line. At Limerick, Champagne Admiral just about got the job done, but I suspect conditions made it harder than it might/should have been. Just typical managed to find the wrong one to beat the O'Connell horse in the bumper. The writing was on the wall for Field A Thistles a long way from home. It was if she was running through glue.
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Nov 23 17:05
By far the standout tomorrow is the staying novice at Warwick.

I was very impressed with Cherie D'Am at Wetherby, and in receipt of weight, I expect her to have too much pace and know how for Big Fish. I will be surprised if Push The Button beats either of them. That Cheltenham race was all about Encanto Bruno, and the rest were much of a muchness. This might be a tee up for the Leamington Spa. 

The way things are going for Henderson/De Boinville there is a danger Either Or will be too short in bumper. She jumped well to win her point, but didn't look a whizz round Warwick bumper type. In what is probably an ordinary race I would prefer to side with Chique Angel for a new big owner.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Nov 23 17:07
Skelton horses are stopping every day lately. Very poor at Cheltenham. Just seeing an interview with Dan saying this is the hardest season he has known for getting horses fit. At least he has a walkover to look forward to tomorrow!
By:
jimnast
When: 22 Nov 23 11:46
I was also very impressed with Cherie at wetherby in fact on leaving that day for me this was the horse to take out of the entire day ,also very strong in the market ,however I wouldn’t dismiss push the button to quickly today’s test will suit.
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 Nov 23 14:19
Got that badly wrong.

She wouldn't be the first to look impressive on the bridle, but not so good off it.

Probably didn't make the difference, but not the best idea to concede around 8 cheap lengths on not the quickest jumper. That said you pretty much know what you are going to get with Skelton. The winner had the run of the race, but won with plenty in hand. Big Fish was very disappointing. Another that travelled, but found even less off the bridle than the Cherie D'Am.
By:
jimnast
When: 22 Nov 23 14:39
I wouldn’t give up on the skeleton horse both were facing stiffer tests than previously and the winner had looked like the test would suit more ,
By:
paulo47
When: 22 Nov 23 16:06
Was watching O'neil's Yes Day as have the 85s Dont Tell Sue for the Bartlett , will settle for that giving 6lbs .
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 Nov 23 16:10
Perhaps, but I am not keen to go in on horses ridden like that, particularly when they capitulate easily off the bridle. It was a totally different race when she was a class above at Wetherby.

I doubt the bumper was up to much, and I fear for those behind the front two. Chique Angel's full brother was poor, and on that evidence she looks very expensive. The market didn't know what to make of her, and had she been any good I doubt Cobden would have allowed De Boinville an easy lead.
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 Nov 23 17:13
Pretty mediocre stuff tomorrow, although Klassical Dream does make a belated chasing debut.

I did think Magic Wave might be point and fire in Market Rasen's opener, but the presence of Woods in the field might make that plan not as straightforward as it seems. In any case he is plenty short enough. So my only bet is Ri Na Cuirte with extra places in the staying novice at Wincanton. His point form doesn't look too bad, and he went off favourite for both starts. He was a creditable fifth to Minella Missile on hurdling debut, but the big negative is Ben Clarke's stable form. He is having a dreadful season. Just A Dime ran a shocker yesterday. Hopefully, things can improve a little tomorrow.
By:
differentdrum
When: 23 Nov 23 11:07
Ri Na Cuirte was 33/1 (10p rule 4 since) last night, but is now as short as 9/1 in the place. The way things have been going I am almost tempted to take the cash out.
By:
differentdrum
When: 23 Nov 23 13:56
It's getting pretty disheartening putting horses up, seeing them backed, and then they run like selling platers. It was a strange ride from Jones as well. I actually thought he was going to pull him up after a few hurdles. You wouldn't go near one from the stable after that.

Magic Wave duly won a very ordinary race, but looked far from straightforward.

On a brighter note Klassical Dream looked very good, albeit in a poor race. He made as good a shape over a fence as anything I have seen this season. Maybe you can teach an old dog new tricks, perhaps it will be a case of how long he will be in love with the new trick. Faugheen got away with it for a while. The problem now for punters is where does he go? The obvious race is the Brown Advisory, but things are complicated by Gaelic Warrior. Much simpler had Gaelic Warrior actually gone the Stayers route. It's impossible to predict Mullins - bookmakers love that - and he might, given his age, think about throwing him in to open company.
By:
jimnast
When: 23 Nov 23 14:58
Gaelic warrior makes his chase debut Saturday at punchestown
By:
jimnast
When: 23 Nov 23 15:03
A race Mullins has won in recent years with kilcruit,faugheen,champagne fever and asterion forlonge,also a race won by monalee does anyone know what happened to him ?
By:
differentdrum
When: 23 Nov 23 18:31
Jones reported Ri Na Cuirte was 'never travelling'. That's a puzzle because after three out he is only about 4 lengths off the lead. That's even after making a couple of jumping errors down the back. If he was never travelling how did he arrive in that position? It's from that point that he ends up being beaten half the track. Throughout the race Jones seemed to constantly flick between pushing the horse and then stopping again.
By:
differentdrum
When: 23 Nov 23 21:02
Disappointing card at Fairyhouse. The pick of the interest is likely the closing bumper where Raceview Road appears to have been supported against the front two. His winning rating puts him right in the picture, and perhaps he just ran too quickly last time. You would imagine D B Cooper's race was stronger than the auction event won by Jeroboam Machin who has probably been put in short on account of connections.

At Catterick I doubt Doc McCoy will be able to concede the penalty to Bugise Seagull and Got Your Back. Slight preference for the latter.

Disappointed I missed the 20/1 on Captain Boudet in the opener at Chepstow. As I mentioned on here he shaped nicely last time, and from a stable in reasonable nick, he must have a fair chance of turning over at least one of the first three in the market. Not sure why The Midwife who likely will hate conditions runs here when stablemate Inion Tiogair who would have liked conditions is a later non runner. San Frandisco won his point nicely despite the jock's kamikaze effort at the last. Those forcing tactics are surely a good fit for the Snowden yard.

It would be a surprise if Welcom To Cartries got turned over in the Ascot opener. He looked a strong, galloping in winning his point. The form is not great with the second looking ordinary under rules, and similarly, the horse who may have been second, but for falling. Ballyfin looked a strong stayer on his last start, and this is likely an insufficient test. It might be worth keeping an eye on Montys Soldier as the stable finally shows a little bit of form. Nothing not to like about The Carpenter over hurdles, and hopefully, he continues the progress on his chasing debut. I like the attitude of Inthewaterside, but very surprised he has dropped in trip.
By:
differentdrum
When: 23 Nov 23 21:13
Just noticed that Klassical Dream's shortest price for the Festival is the National Hunt Chase. Is that a joke? He shouldn't even be entered for that plodders race. Bookmakers don't think much of Mullins if they really think he is going to shunt a horse of that quality in that direction.
By:
jimnast
When: 23 Nov 23 21:41
The problem with you dd is you don’t have an opinion
By:
paulo47
When: 24 Nov 23 08:22
The camera angles were really deceptive at Wincanton , my mate had same 33s as you so we both watched fairly closely , one minute you thought it had a chance despite everything and the alternate angle showed it struggling again .
By:
differentdrum
When: 24 Nov 23 09:10
I wish I could blame the camera angles, but he did get within about 4 lengths after three out. The question mark is then what happened. If he was never travelling you would have expected Jones to have constantly been pushing him along, not stopping and starting again.
By:
differentdrum
When: 24 Nov 23 16:31
Yet another poor day.

Not sure that Fairyhouse bumper lived up to the anticipation. So often on that ground it's just about who can stay on the bridle the longest. Same thing happened at Chepstow. Raceview Road left well behind, perhaps a combination of not being good enough, and wanting better ground.

Doc McCoy wasn't good enough to concede the penalty, but even then I got the wrong one. Quite impressed with the winner who raced wide, and saw his race out well. Got Your Back continually jumped right, but even allowing for that, his finish was tame.

Captain Boudet was a lucky third. To my eyes he never travelled, and either regressed from his first run, or wants better ground. The writing was the wall from the start for San Frandisco. He got to the front, but travelled like the worst horse in the race, and has probably done well to plug on for second. Those who shelled out for him will be hoping he is another who wants less testing ground.

Happened to have a look this morning at Tom Lacey's form. Around Letthedustsettle nearly everything has run well or won. There are a lot of unhappy coincidences going on with horses I am highlighting at the moment. Today I even managed to stop Henderson for half an hour. The Carpenter was another to look beat almost from the start. He seemed to approach every fence as if it was a mountain. If a step up in trip and softer ground doesn't work it wouldn't surprise me if it's back to hurdles. I worry if Cobden doesn't force the issue on a stayer, and that may well have decided the issue in opener. Time will tell if they are two decent horses, but I wouldn't get carried away just yet. Ballyfin ran very well, and should be winning a staying novice. Shocking piece of placement with Inthewaterside. It looks like he was chasing the dollar, rather than doing waht was best for the horse, something he often trots out when it suits.

Ben Jones three rides since Ri Na Cuirte wins on them all.
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