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Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
Novice Hurdles/Bumpers 23/24
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The TBD given a very modest ride!
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Impose Toi is a novice so how good is he? Could that be Nicky's Supreme horse or will be stay in handicaps?
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Sorry, I had not noticed he won a hurdle in March which rules him out so handicaps it is.
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Captain Teague jumped slightly better, but was still a million miles away from fluent. Cobden has sat close to a slow pace (Timeform thought he would sit fifth - what do they pay those people for?), and in the end he has just looked like a slow boat. Every year Nicholls puts up his supposed best novice for the Ballymore, and every year they are too slow. It seems he will never learn. What's wrong with targetting an Albert Bartlett?
Brook Bay jumped poorly, and was much too slow. Yet again having jumped the last looking as if he could finish in the six, he hasn't found anything at all. I am not sure what you do with horse who doesn't look like he can finish at any trip. Unless he has an issue that can be fixed, he is fast looking like a very expensive dud. He isn't the biggest so fences is not a given. He was weak in the market close to the off. |
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I don't think Captain Teague wins any race at the festival. Like I sad, I wan's impressed by his hurdles debut. And pre race I was convinced he's not as good as High Class Hero, now I'm absolutely certain of it.
The winner of that closing race was plotted up for it. I get the feeling its the same for Iberico Lord in the Greatwood |
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I agree DD that Walsh has never been a "punters pal", but he did say all season long that Galopin Des Champs would go for the Turners in his novice chase season when most thought he would go for the RSA.
Though Mullins is a master he often makes mistakes with his horses. Look how many good horses careers are wasted by going for the Champion Bumper. It is impossible to second guess the man. Any way, back to the fred. |
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Obviously, Galopin Des Champs would have won the Turners, but given how he subsequently had no issue with the Gold Cup trip you have to wonder why he didn't go for the RSA. It seemed going for Turners achieved nothing much more than frustrate those who had made the horse a strong favourite to win the longer race.
The only time I felt he pulled off something I could never see coming was Champagne Fever winning the Supreme. I thought he was a certainty to want a longer trip. He was a horse who never progressed from those early successes. It was very much a bookmakers day today, and I fear the worst for tomorrow as well. If anyone has a really strong view about anything feel free to flag it up. I don't. |
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more interested in tomorrow where I think that Afadil is a good thing in the Greatwood. I Still Have Faith is a value price in the 3yo at Cheltenham today.
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More interested in Navan than Cheltenham today.
Ended up cobbling together three bets. In the closing bumper I think Sharp Object has the best form, but you couldn't entertain backing one of O'Connell's at the moment. The price does not reflect the terrible stable form which suggests it should be nearer double the 5/1 on offer. I have taken a chance on Backdoorflush. She quickened up nicely before being overhauled late on debut. The pair were clear, and that could have been an above average race for the track. Her dam was very effective on soft ground so I am hoping conditions are not going to be a negative. Lots of horses are likely to be inconvenienced today. I have gone with My Trump Card in the Navan bumper. He was an eyecatcher on his jumping debut shaping like a strong stayer. Perhaps a surprise he didn't go down the bumper route, but on the plus side he is a full brother to a multiple bumper winner. It's a tight market, but I would have put him in as favourite. Presumably, at some stage Connell has talked up the current favourite, and although I have Springt De La Mare on my point list the form of that win couldn't have worked out much worse. Lastly, I have gone with Letthedustsettle at Uttoxeter. Missed an opportunity recently, but remains down in trip. Just a shame the price is shorter this time. Disappointing if he can't be competitive in receipt of weight from a horse whose form doesn't look particularly strong. There seems to have been a big media push suggesting the Cross Country race at the Festival should be a handicap. That shouldn't be the question. Should it be there at all is what should be asked? There are more than enough big field competitive handicaps at the Festival. Cheltenham should be about the best of the best. It's nonsense to argue for more handicaps. |
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As regards Afadil it will be interesting to see if he backs up the trainer's claim that 'all ground comes alike to him'. The market doesn't seem to believe him.
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Gidleigh Park declared at Exeter on Monday
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dd while I agree that Cheltenham should be about the best, how can we have competitive racing when owners and trainers run away from taking on the best horses? I can see some of the novice chases down to 5 or less runners if a top class favourite turns up. Ditto champion hurdle. While we do need to establish the pecking order, it is not about selecting sires like Group 1 flat racing so some entertainment from amateur handicaps and X country is fine with me in a meeting with 28 races. They can't all be championship deciders. Going back to the Turners vs the RSA, a very good trainer I knew called Bob Turnell said he would never run another top class novice chaser in the RSA as it can do real harm. He blamed it for the sad loss of Buona Notte. A Gold Cup winner in waiting should win the Arkle, never mind the Turners.
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I know a fair degree of history, including about Bob Turnell. That is just his opinion, not fact. I would be pretty sure he ran horses in the race during the 70's, albeit without success. Didn't Sweet September start favourite? Lots of good horses have gone the RSA route and won, or run well in Gold Cups. To me the idea that running a good horse in the RSA ruins it is something of a nonsense. It is just trotted out with very little evidence to ever support it. As regards small fields it doesn't really bother me. There are only ever going to be a limited number of Grade 1 horses. I don't think there is much to be said for loads of horses just chancing their arm. As I said if you want big fields there are always plenty to choose from.
Anyway back to today, and I should have kept my money firmly in my pocket. Letthedustsettle was given a shocking ride by Sheppard. I really don't know why owners/trainers would tolerate a jock who just concedes his main market rivals 8-10 lengths at the start. Next minute he is riding along to get those cheap lengths back. Just amateurish. In the end the horse was fortunate to finish third, and appears to have taken a big step backwards from a promising start. Swan has sat behind a dawdle on My Trump Card then got outpaced and ultimately ran out of track allowing the weakest of the three in the market to win. On her debut Backdoorflush beat Mick's Jet by more than 15 lengths. That horse reversed the form by the same margin today. Backdoorflush looked clueless throughout, and Fox appeared to do little more than try and keep her balanced. On that evidence she hadn't got anything like the know how to be in that field. Very much a wasted run. Earlier at Cheltenham, Burdett Road won what looked a pretty mediocre Triumph Trial. I find it hard to believe a horse that jumps so poorly can win a Triumph. The testing conditions probably helped him as it placed less emphasis on the jumping. Unless his jumping improves he is going to find it considerably more difficult to pick off better horses on good ground. Stage Star was a very game winner of the big handicap. I just wonder how many times he can keep on doing that. I thought for much of the way that Fujitif was travelling best, but he did too much in first time cheekpieces. Springwell Bay won nicely enough, but he might be difficult to place. He doesn't look as if he wants three miles. Resplendent Grey did nothing for the Captain Teague form. At Navan, Stellar Story looked another slow boat in the opener. At least his jumping technique is better than Captain Teague. Anything other than an Albert Bartlett entry would seem wasteful. He looks more of a long term National Hunt Chase/Irish National type. Unless it comes up very soft I doubt the Nathanial Lacy will provide a stiff enough test for him. Having landed a double on Bob Olinger and Captain Guinness (how many more days in the sun will those two have?), I thought Blackmore gave Inthepocket a very negative ride. Facile Vega went from shaky to much more solid in the jumping stakes, and finished his race off well. In the end a job well done. At Wetherby, Favour And Fortune landed on a very nice opportunity. Bit surprising a few other southern based trainers didn't take him on. He was relatively untroubled, but he looks a lightly made type who might not stand too much racing. Up in class his jumping will also need to be a good deal better. |
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Small fields don't matter so long as the best 4 horses entered turn up but when the second, third and fourth rated decide to go elsewhere it is not a spectacle. Who will take on Constitution Hill? Rubaud might but what else is there? Back to the RSA, it is not an issue if the horse has experience of the trip but it has to be hard on a young horse that has only run over shorter trips. Best Mate ran in the Supreme and would have run in the Arkle if it been run that year. Ironically it was the King George win on desperate ground that did for his heart. I take your point about Stage Star-he had a very hard race.
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Had another bet on Facile Vega this morning for the Arkle. Hopefully the horse gets there in one piece.
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I was not that impressed but he is not an exuberant horse. If he wins another good novice he will probably get a walkover in the Arkle.
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Aside from being far from fully fit and winning he didn't seem to be as keen as he can be so perhaps that's something they've sorted. Also he jumped better I thought when they eventually quickened. I assume it'll be Leopardstown at Christmas then the Dublin Festival.
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Very good horses will always frighten away some opposition. Were people really disappointed when Arkle trounced the opposition? The main difference these days is the number of condition race options. Arkle would have been able to have strolled round, never needing to explore handicaps.
The likes of Bowgeeno (2nd), Charter Flight, Charlie H (4th), Balinese, Cuckolder, and Sweet September (2nd) all represented Turnell in the equivalent of the RSA. That was just from a quick scan. Pretty decent cards at Navan and Cheltenham again tomorrow. Three point winners take on the Mullins french flat winner in the mares' novice. Bioluminescence might be the pick of those three. I am not too surprised that Fact Or File goes straight over fences. He should make a winning start. It could be that he ends up over three miles so hopefully, Walsh makes the most of that stamina. I would have Landrake second favourite over the very disappointing American Mike. Last season's most expensive pointer, Qualimita, makes her racecourse debut in the closing bumper. Only By Night bolted up in an ordinary race, but I would be surprised if she is able to trouble the favourite. At Cheltenham, unfortunately, I missed the 9/4 on The Kemble Brewery. I would expect him to have too much pace for Tellherthename who I am surprised hasn't been stepped up in trip. Crebilly is another sea of blue horse. He doesn't look badly treated for his chase debut. I was quite impressed with Guetapan Collonges last time, but he now looks plenty short enough for a horse making his Cheltenham debut in a competitive race. The pin came down on Punctuation in the Greatwood in the hope he might still be on the improve. Brechin Castle should be difficult to beat in the closing bumper. |
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Yep we nicked the 50s and 40s Punctuation once it was declared for that Hollie Doyle flat race . Been rain dancing ever since , not overly optimistic as some may improve further .
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Several of those were before Buona Notte though surely and none of those were held in the same regard. After Buona Notte, Charter Flight was John Haine's favourite. He had a big picture of him jumping at Aintree in his house but the whole house was called Buona Notte. I knew John Haine and his family from a very early age as our fathers were big pals all their lives. I remember BNs first novice chase at Newbury. I was a student at Reading at the time and took some friends who had not been racing before. I told them it could not lose and they backed it. When John was 10 lengths last at the cross fence, they all called me names but of course John was just teaching him his job and won on the bridle.
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None of those were before Buona Notte. He won the RSA in 1964, Bowgeeno was second in 1967, and all the others were later than that. They might not have been as good, but they were decent horses and the trainer was not inclined to sidestep the race with any of them. In fact Cuckolder and Balinese ran in the same renewal. These days both of those horses would be considered Graded class. Cuckolder beat the likes of The Dikler, Spanish Steps and Pendil; Balinese had verdicts over Colebridge and Crisp. So fair to say the race did neither of them any harm.
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Buona Notte went on finish runner up in the 1964 Massey-Ferguson, finishing in front Of Arkle. It seems far more likely that tough race contributed to his demise.
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Need to stick to novice hurdles.
The best 3 hurdle races in the uk so far are, with my part time viewing. https://www.irishracing.com/raceresults/Sat-4th-Nov-2023/Ayr/1200 the 4th is a good horse. https://www.irishracing.com/raceresults/Sat-18th-Nov-2023/Uttoxeter/1337 Winner is above average. https://www.irishracing.com/raceresults/Fri-27th-Oct-2023/Cheltenham/1555 Hopefully Lookaway isnt just a good ground orse. |
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I am well aware of the Massey Ferguson. I was there and backed him but BN made a horrible mistake at the last which cost him the race. We will never know which race affected him the most but the trainer's view was that 3 miles carrying a big weight (as they all did in those days) was too early in his career and he regretted running him in the RSA even though he won. Memories play tricks so apologies for the comment about which came first. I am surprised that Cuckolder was later but I don't doubt your records. Cuckolder came from the same family as sprinters, Trigamy, Philogyny (who my father leased a share in) and later Emma Peel. The breeders Arthur and Betty Smith sent a jumping mare, Wayward Damsel to Relic first in the hope of getting a flat win before then concentrating on jumpers and the resulting foal called Polyandrist won a few times herself before becoming the dam of plenty of winners. Another relative, Cornuto was one of the few horses to combine a stud career with staying in training.
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IS as you say back to novices. I am a Kim Bailey fan but 5/4 The Kemble Brewery is a bit skinny for a first run over hurdles. It does not look a strong race though.
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I am a fan of Tellherthename, the race at ascot looks strong given the gap to the 3rd that day.
I respect KB horses and the breeding and the market suggests it might be his best novice hurdler, but at current prices i will be backing Tellherthename. I was thinking to take advantage of my selection not being fav in the place market, that market stinks. |
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It's a good thing I don't do this for compliments.
'Need to stick to novice hurdles' No discussion, just an order. When you want something is this the way you normally go about it? This is also your first contribution. I make no apology for briefly referring to the main races of the day in summation, and I certainly make no apology for a couple of posts regarding Bob Turnell. The vast majority of the thread has been in keeping with the title. If it's not to your taste then perhaps don't read it, or even better still if you want to dictate the content how about doing a thread yourself? |
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Is this reply aimed at me ?
I only posted a reply aimed at no one, it was titled need to stick to novice hurdles, that reference was to myself and to get back to the subject of novice hurdlers. I will not ever reply to one of your freds ever again, who the hell is bob turnell ? Thanks & good luck. |
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shame to fall out over a good thread. And IS, Bob Turnell was one of the leading trainers of his day winning the Gold Cup with Pas Seul and the CH with Salmon Spray as well as a Supreme Novice and the RSA with the afore mentioned Buona Notte. His son Andy trained a National winner with Maori Venture and also rode Mayfair Bill to win the County Hurdle as a teenager.
Regarding novices, Classic Lord looked a good thing at Fontwell but drifted alarmingly. The Kemble Brewery is now terrible value with non runners. It still has to jump round. |
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Not too far Nico!
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What can you do about JP?
He follows Impose Toi with today's big double of Jonbon and Iberico Lord. I managed to mention four of his and they all managed to lose. Three could/should have won, and the other was massively inconvenienced by a staying race being turned into a relative sprint. The day started with an absolute disaster for punters and Kim Bailey. He has had two very ordinary seasons, but had seemed to have unearthed a decent prospect in The Kemble Brewery. You were left thinking what on earth was the horse doing at Cheltenham. The jumping lacked any confidence, but he didn't pick up on the level, and at no stage did he look like winning. Bass/Bailey at their best were point and fire merchants. I have no idea why that has stopped. The change has clearly not worked. Had the second favourite run (not sure why he didn't) he would probably have won half the track. This wasn't much of a race. Much was made of the way Ginny's Destiny saw his race out, but there was nothing to suggest that Crebilly wouldn't have done likewise. He flicked the top of the fence, but it was one of those falls that really shouldn't happen. His jumping had been flat, but safe, and hopefully, his confidence hasn't been dented. I wouldn't give up on Guetapan Collonges. He is a really good jumper, but needs an end to end gallop. He looks an old style Aintree horse, but the Becher Chase will probably arrive too soon. That was by far the best I have seen from Jonbon, and for me it is a pity that De Boinville won't keep the ride. Perhaps Punctuation has reached his ceiling, but I don't think track position helped his cause. He has probably covered more ground than anything else in the race. Again I don't think they went that hard on the front end. That probably didn't help Nemean Lion either, but at least his jock took a ground saving route. The bumper also turned into a sprint, and fortunately the favourite had enough of a gear to see off the leader. He has a nice pedigree (family of Bilboa) and remains promising, but I don't think it was the strongest race. At Navan, Bioluminescence was nicely suppoeted from 5/1, but a combination of lugging in behind, and a poor Walsh ride made sure she didn't justify the support. A rare setback for Cromwell. She looked to have far more scope than the Blackmore/De Bromhead point and fire winner. Talking of poor Walsh rides he appeared to give Fact Or File a shocker. The horse looked a stayer in all his point runs so why hand an easy lead to a horse who had looked to be woefully short on confidence? Mullins must be very grateful he only has to use him occasionally. In the same race Landrake made far too many mistakes. The market for the closing bumper told the story. Only By Night was able to again win virtually on the bridle. It looks a case of thank goodness they moved it from O'Neill. The lack of market confidence in the original favourite was immediately confirmed when she lined up out wide 6-8 lengths behind the winner. She threw down a challenge in the straight, but never looked likely. What's 500,000 to the Robcour guy? |
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What can you do about JP?
The winner of that closing race was plotted up for it. I get the feeling its the same for Iberico Lord in the Greatwood |
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Whippin Piccadilly27 Oct 23 19:28Joined: 02 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 8,683 | Blogger: Whippin Piccadilly's blog
Both Encanto Bruno & Lookaway put up the best displays by Novice Hurdlers on a UK racecourse so far this season(Captain Teague down to 3rd place on my own opinion based ratings but probably not officially?) By the end of the season it will have looked an impossible task for Lookaway to try and give Iberico Lord 6lbs IMVHO |
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Not a bad card at Exeter tomorrow.
Plenty of short prices about. The main interest is Gidleigh Park. He starts off over a stiff two miles on testing ground. Anything other than a comfortable win would be disappointing. Just for the record he is 40/1 for the Ballymore and 50/1 for the Albert Bartlett. If I knew either was a serious target he might be worth a small dabble, but I don't. He is probably quoted for the Supreme as well, but he may as well be a million for that race. Fry also runs a nicely bred filly in the bumper, Anno Power, a not very imaginatively named relaion of Annie Power, and more recently, Lecky Watson. |
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Iberico Lord was probably "plotted up" but so were half of the field. No idea what went on with Afadil. Cobden was looking down after jumping the first and he was gone in 5 furlongs. Lookaway ran a brave race and by placing he saved my blushes with Afadil. Not sure where I would go with him. Her was done for speed rather than stamina by Iberico Lord so he could go up in trip. the Fontwell novice looked weak but Classic Lord paid a compliment to Wyenot and Norman Fletcher from what now looks a hot race at Ludlow.
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Iberico Lord was probably "plotted up" but so were half of the field
Were they? I would suggest only a couple of trainers could plot one up for such a competitive race. But what do I know! Well done with the aftertime on Lookaway though. lol |
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Pre race views are best, but I am willing to take what people say at face value, otherwise what is the point?
It would be unfortunate if the thread were to slip into my tips are better than your tips stuff. That's not the idea, it helps nobody. As regards JP, I doubt anyone can get JP right all of the time, even JP himself. |
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I am fairly sure that both of the Skelton runners will have been aimed at the race as will both of Hendersons and both of Nicholls and certainly the Mullins favourite. Perhaps the one that was not a plot was Lookaway, a novice at the start of the season and probably by some way the fittest in the field. What ever trainers say and do, there has never been any substitute for bringing horses along steadily through the classes. I did have a small place bet on Lookaway solely because he was fit and in form but only enough to cover my losing win bets on Afadil and Knickerbockerglory. Why are you so upset about me saying that whippin?
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Trainer says Gidleigh Park wants a lot further, will it's class prevail?
I wouldn't take a short price about it. |
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It's no secret that the expectation is he will want further, but Exeter is a stiff test, particularly on testing ground. I would be surprised, and very disappointed, if he got beat. Backing 1/2 shots is not my bag. The horse in the bumper has more than halved in price so you would assume a decent run is expected.
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