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Hobbs yard coming alive in the last week but 9/4 is silly for Lowrys Bar.
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The money talked there Sage!
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Not so silly now and must be a decent prospect to beat a 110 rated flat horse from the last. Thurley was very green and would be the one to follow. That might be a very good 2 mile novice for Wincanton.
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The winner only had a hound to beat IMO.
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The winner at Aintree looks the one to follow. He looked to need every inch of the 2m4f trip.
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Bcaked trhe second MJK but laid it off going to the last. It could be that the first 2 are the only ones to note but Thurley is a big backward sort for whom 2 miles was far too short and the jockey would have been well aware of the money for the stable mate. And the last horse the owners had was a certain Thyme Hill. I could see him right in the mix for the 3 mile novice in March.
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Looks a nice one to follow alright
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Been thinking whether it's worth continuing with this. Others no doubt could keep it going, but the relatively small number of contributors doesn't augur well.
I like to think the majority of my posts are punter friendly, and this thread is supposed to provide some (useful) information on races where there isn't that much to go on. I put up a post (before the race) on Saturday about Corach Rambler which proved to be entirely accurate yet the thread was delberately hijacked and reduced to a farce. That sort of thing happens far too often. Those who say the forum isn't what it used to be how about starting by calling out this sort of rubbish? There are too many people on here who are little more than apologists for the industry, beyond that they add next to nothing. They could almost be working for the industry, who knows? Against that background of crap it's very hard to try and post something good. Don't think I missed too much over the weekend, and Ancient Wisdom was my only bet. Will monitor a couple from Galway: Release The Beast (by my favourite sire) who looked good in winning a terrible race, and Walk In The Shadow who didn't show much for an inexperienced jock, but is from a family full of winners. Couple of novices and a bumper at Chepstow. Big fields, but not sure any race is that much above average. As of now I have taken the extra places on the two novice hurdles. Saladin's Son looks too big at 20/1. Ginger Jonny's point form looks rubbish, and for some reason he is half the price. Of the others I was quite impressed with Alcedo on debut, but not so much on his attempt to back it up. Gone with Ultra Beat in the second division. Form not particularly strong, but he struck me as one who might improve this season. Daly had an impressive novice winner a couple of days ago. Minella Missile finished very strongly to win his point, and you would wonder on that run if this is a stiff enough test. Captain Boudet another who looked slow (despite going off favourite) when finishing behind one off my list of pointers. Captain Bellamy is on that list. He ran them into the ground when winning his point, and you wonder if he can repeat those tactics in a bumper, particularly at a very short price. The two Walk In The Park's are nicely bred, and at a massive price Gentleman represents a stable who had one travel well in the Aintree bumper. Skelton has a few runners tomorrow, but couldn't give them a second look with the likely negative tactics. |
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Break even day on the betting front, although it doesn't take a lot of imagination to think that both bets might well have collected.
Saladins Son out ran his price, and would have finished a lot closer had he not got in too deep at virtually every hurdle. On that ground you are not going to get home jumping like that. Ito Ditto showed what the opposite can do for a front runner. A big run was clearly expected from Ultra Beat (14/1-6/1) and he was ridden accordingly. You rarely get any horse stop like that, and it was reported he was struck into, and had an irregular heartbeat. If you watched Minella Missile's point you knew he was going to run down the leader. The testing ground brought his stamina into play. Captain Boudet stayed on without ever being seriously involved. Captain Bellamy looked a thorough stayer in the last. He doesn't look an obvious bumper type, and not sure he would confirm the form with the second on a quicker surface. |
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Keep the thread going dd, one of the few genuine threads on the forum.
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Thanks, but that's the problem, it feels like I am talking an empty room.
I tried to start a proper thread on the Breeders Cup, but again virtually no response at all. |
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I cant remember a Nicholls horse jump as novicey as Dont Tell Su and actually be in with a chance at the death .
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Traditionally this is coming up to Nicholls time of the year, especially those ridden by Cobden, leaving out his Nov HCap Hurdles/Nov Hcap Chasers.
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Interesting novice hurdle at Stratford tomorrow. (13:45)
Bowenspark trained by Henry Daly won his first two bumpers before running 4th in the Listed Newbury bumper, and then a very eye-catching 4th in the Aintree bumper. Realisation, for Charlie Longsdon was 2nd in a ptp, before running out a very easy winner of a bumper at Bangor last October. Not sure why she did not run again last season, but she is the trainers "one to follow" this season. |
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Love the winner of that Aintree Bumper. He's penciled in for his hurdle debut this weekend. Bowenspark ran a excellent race there after showing a decent level form in his previous bumper races. If jumps OK he'll be very tough to beat. I make him a 5/4-6/4 shot
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And Daly has made a decent start to the season.
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Realisation for me, the 7 lb weight concession just about swings it.
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Just watched the replay of the Realisation race. She was impressive and there's real substance to the form of that race. I can see where you're coming form there Tiger. Both look really nice prospects for the season.
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Looked impressive to me too. Also entered at Wetherby on Friday.
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Job done by Bowenspark but the odds for the tipping comp are skinny. Took 2.3 this morning so happy with that. Job to know how good the opposition was but he could not win much easier and jumping almost perfect.
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Lots of moeny for Bowenpark and justified, well done sageform.
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Nice introduction for Bowenspark there.
He must have been very well supported late on ?? The other nhf from last year that caught my eye was Diamond Ri for Tizzard who runs in the 16:10 at Wetherby tomorrow. Again not a price to get excited about, but hope he can go places this season and when sent chasing. |
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I got enough on at 6/4....never looked in doubt. A very nice prospect!
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Only just watched today's back.
Coco Mademoiselle very disappointing in the first, and may only have finished third. The third ran okay at a big price, and had the most interesting pedigree being from the family of Limini, Vintage Tipple and Overbury. Quite pleased that Skelton got run down in the later novice as punters wouldn't have had a clue beforehand that he was going to make the running. I thought Bowenspark went off short enough, but jumped pretty well, and had it won from two out. Time was quite a bit quicker than the second division. Daly has made a good start with the novices, Ultra Beat apart. Not really interested in these junior bumpers as too often they are full of flat rejects. I wish they would filter them out. There are enough poor flat maidens they could run in. |
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What junior bumper are you referring too?
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Could be the 3yo NH hurdle but now abandoned.
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I'm with you. Thank you.
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To answer the question I was referring to all of them. They are just weak flat maidens. Other than being just one more race they serve little or no purpose. It doesn't progress national hunt racing. Most of the participants will just disappear, or achieve next to nothing. Add on another half mile, and it's a different ball game. Ireland, with it's great history of bumper racing doesn't have them, so why do we?
Jump horses will occasionally run on the flat, but that's usually about trying to win big handicaps, a totally different kettle of fish to this pot hunting with horses who have a plentiful supply of maiden races to go at on the flat. It just looks like these races are being used just to avoid the bigger yards. If these flat breds want to be part of national hunt racing send them over hurdles or fences. As for three year old hurdles, I am not keen on having two on one card. |
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I thought someone had mentioned a 3 year old bumper and you were against those sort of races.
I kept reading previous comments looking for said horse/race. That is why I asked. |
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Plenty of races tomorrow need a bit of study and unlikely to find much time with the Breeders Cup tonight. The Ascot novice looks the pick and Jango Baie's point form has been boosted. The winner of that race was on my list, but unsure where he went - possibly a private sale to JP?
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Is that No Flies On Him DD? McManus owns it, Hyde usually gives him the nod.
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Florida Dream having his debut over hurdles in the opener at Ayr. He has a couple of nice types in there to beat in Indeevar Bleu & I Love My Baie. But I'll be disappointed if he can't get the job done
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Ascot 2.40 Saturday is nice race.
Tellherthename is a £200k winning pointer. Runner up from same race gone tp P.Nicholls indicates could be a promising sort. Opened up 9/2 with 365. Will have a check on the price again tomorrow. Pity we do not get to see much of them before the race on a busy tv day. |
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In the same race Soldierofthestorm has a 6lb penalty for a win at Warwick in March but it beat nothing of note. Henderson,s runner Jango Bale is 2/1 fav but I never know which way to jump with his first time.
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Why is Nico De Boingville on Jango Baie, and not on Luccia @ Wetherby.
Yes I know it might be off but still....... |
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Managed to have a little look, mainly at the pointers.
I flagged up Indeevar Blue on last year's Jonjo thread. I thought he might go Aintree bumper. Concerned that it said 'keen' in the analysis, and the last thing you want is a jock going out on an educational mission. I can't trust Richards with a decent horse, and normally Doyen's favour better ground, so it is a watch only race. I thought Promoz was either green, or put his head in the air last time. Should it go ahead I will be watching both Letthedustsettle, and Wild Side Of Life in the Wetherby novice. Visually, both looked good in winning their points. Yes MJK, it was No Flies On Him. He came from well off the pace to beat Jango Baie. Not sure whether there might have been an element of the second throwing it away. A horse called Milo Miller came down three out went a length off Jango Baie. Tellherthename jumped very well from the front when making a winning debut, but has a moderate enough pedigree for a big price tag. Electric Mason beat Oak Grove on point debut. Oak Grove perhaps inconvenienced a bit by going right handed, but still had to work pretty hard to win next time. I have the second to Chauffeur Driven on my list as to me he looked the scopier of the two. |
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The 12.00 at Ayr is the most interesting novice to me. Good/soft unless it changes overnight and 2 unbeaten bumpers head the market. It could come down to jumping ability so I might back which ever of Florida Dreams and Indeevar Blue jumps the first 2 flights the best. I Love my Baie will struggle to give them 6lb if they can jump.
Royal Thunder is a sporting bet in the Ascot novice for Stuart Edmunds who had a big priced win at Stratford. |
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No bets today (other than the Breeders Cup), it just looks too tricky with too much guessing on fitness, and ground. An each-way dabble on Wild Side Of Life was the closest I came, but, although he should stay well, the ground a big unknown.
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