It looked an Ok race for Sedgefield standards. Surely Southern Babylon wins a race when she's stepped up in trip. I thought the winner jumped well bar the last. Incidentally that one finished 4th on his second start behind a horse that's on my HTF list for this season. Captain Butler should have a really good season Novice Hurdling. Yes, unlike many in the Racing Media,  my HTF list doesn't contain Constitution Hill & El Fabiolo

Big Fish already halved in price.

Just reading the Willie Mullins piece on Sporting Life. Confirms the about turn with Gaelic Warrior, but no mention of what he had previously said. Must have slipped his mind. No mention of Old Ground so it could be a double whammy. JASMIN DE VAUX has been purchased from the Crawford's.

Support for Big Fish well and truly dried up. Complete reversal from last night as he is the only one of the market leaders on the drift. Had the support continued (with the non runner) he would now be 7/2 instead of a drifting 13/2. Interesting to see if the drift is reflected in the ride he is given.

quite interested in American Land and King of the Lake at Exeter. Both have hurdles experience and the Tizzard stable is just starting to run some nice horses while Jeremy Scott is usually strong at Exeter. Favour or Fortune is the obvious one at Hereford but odds on first time over hurdles is not for me.

Looked useful and jumped fine. I said below (oct 20) that Alan King was about to run some good novices.

Both of my choices in the 3.30 ran well so able to lay them off but Big Fish beat them from 2 out. King of the Lake stuck on well ahead of Westerninthepark but American Land weakened quickly in the straight. Those four plus the favourite who was still going well when running out could be OK.

Market giving it no chance.

Well done DD

Thanks, the way things have been going I did think here we go again when he stumbled after the second last.

I suspect it owes a little more to Linda Ronstadt and the Stone Poneys than it does to me. That said I have tipped it in the competition.  No alternative really, but no money down. Likely it will want better ground, and will do well to finish in the first five, but occasionally miracles do happen.

Blasphemy to mention it, but I have been putting in quite a bit of Breeders Cup study. Normally would have left it until the entry stage which is today.

Bit late to the party (as usual) but spent long, long hours in the past following the exploits of winning/some placed Irish pointers graduating to the track. My records stretched over 7-8 years and tracked all subsequent runs on the racecourse. Overall, a very dispiriting waste of time and the market was rarely behind the curve.

Some lessons I did learn (and that takes diligent study) included following the runners of smaller National Hunt trainers - normally regarded as "chasing" yards that used the points as a gentle introduction to racing (usually non-winning pointers) but that was mostly in Irish NH racing. Another angle that offered some glimmer of hope was following winning pointers in their first starts in handicap chases. A micro system was well-known breeders with promising winning pointers using the opportunity to give sons and daughters winning chances in Irish bumpers before selling on. Firmly believe to have any chance of beating the market is to undertake your own detailed research into areas others will not be bothered or unwilling to engage.

Nice thread dd, btw.

You may not have caught the interview with Bellamy afterwards. He said the Lavelle were 'wrong' last season. I can believe that, but it doesn't excuse the negative way they were generally ridden. Better signs in that respect recently, and I will continue to monitor to see if that trend continues over the next few days.

Missed that interview. They've certainly started the season really well. Maybe doing things training wise, a little differently this season too?

Has to be Baby Sage for me in the mares race doesn't it? I hope she runs better than dd

Picked the wrong first time hurdler. Good ride by Paddy Brennan coming from a fair way back on an ex Fabre horse with plenty of flat experience. Jour D'Evasion is one to note. Getaway Glory the only one of my mentions to run poorly.

Cheltenham looks very tricky tomorrow.

My main focus will just be watching Encanto Bruno. He was very good from the front over an inadequate trip on hurdling debut, but didn't back that up next time, and has since been switched from O'Connell to Cromwell. Cromwell had a horse switched from O'Neill bolt up recently, but this is a different kettle of fish. They need to get the horse back on track. He doesn't want soft ground, and he might have been better served going in the poorly contested three mile novice on Saturday.

On the subject of McConnell it looks like the wheels have all of a sudden come off with his stable star, Seddon, not looking the same horse as last year.

Encanto Bruno couldn't have been more impressive in winning on the bridle. His jumping was very good, and on that evidence no reason to go up in trip. On this ground he is pretty good, and in the hope of getting similar in March, the 33/1 for the Ballymore is perfectly reasonable. That's two impressive wins on the track when the ground has been in his favour.

*Cromwell has the short priced fav but I'd be inclined to take it on

I haven't backed anything over jumps tomorrow.

I am assuming the ground will dry back to good.

Butch is the one that has won over the trip. The second has won since, but probably improved for dropping back in trip, and better ground. His jumping wasn't terrible, but I thought Butch was wanting to go right throughout. He also has a pounding action which suggests he will be the one most inconvenienced by drying ground. I am never too keen on flat breds over jumps, but Reverend Hubert appeared tapped for toe last time, and the longer trip should suit with the better ground a likely plus as well. Antrim Coast won nicely last time in a race run at a decent pace. He cleared away late on, but may have been a little flattered as the second was quite free in the early stages. The well touted third runs earlier in the day. Antrim's Coast's pedigree wouldn't suggest it is a gimme that he will be better over an extra half mile. Lisnamult Lad hasn't beaten very much, and there is a possibility he might be more speed over stamina. The other two look as if they are running for the bookmakers.

If forced I would side with Reverend Hubert, but a definite no bet.

Nice one Barstool!

Drum, I couldn't have RH at any price and I thought AC was plenty short enough at Evens, which is proved to be the case. I had 1 point each on Butch and Lismault Lad, missed the 5/1 & 13/2 and had to settle for 9/2 & 11/2.
Butch is a tough dependable sort and can win more races this season. I'd like to see Lisnamult Lad dropped back in trip and he can win more races.

Interesting race coming up in a few minutes at Aintree.