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Leap Year Lad, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.00 Wolverhampton (3 PLACES)
Leap Year Lad is of a little interest on his third place in a one mile nursery at the St Leger meeting (good), when he finished a respectable third off a mark of 63 (carried 1lb overweight) in a 0-82 rating band. The form didn't work out too badly with the winner following up under a penalty and the fourth subsequently winning a Newmarket nursery. Leap Year Lad was a little disappointing in two runs after, but might have had excuses as little went right on his next start at Ripon, and when last seen at Pontefract in October, he wasn't entirely disgraced from a wide draw on easier ground when finishing fifth of the 15 runners. His only previous run on the AW, which came over this evening's C/D prior to the Doncaster effort, saw him finish last of seven, but in a steadily-run affair, he found himself poorly positioned at the rear of the field though did make a little late-headway. He's eligible for weaker races than this one, is returning from nearly four months off and has been gelded, so the run may be needed, particularly as he has been quite weak in the betting this morning, but a chance is taken at the odds with three places on offer, as that Doncaster form would suggest he should be winning off his current mark at some point. |
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Well that was frustrating to watch, he appeared to have running left in him but was caught in a pocket against the rail until it was all too late.
Running P/L: +11 pts |
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One of those races alright,thought there was a semblance of a gap just before turning in but it closed almost immediately,put it down as unlucky alright.
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Indeed, punchestown. Good luck today.
Nothing on the shortlist for me today, which isn't good with the clock ticking away. 69 days remaining from tomorrow. |
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Ample time George
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Here's hoping, Shane. Good luck today.
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Dazy Mazy, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.40 Newcastle
Dazy Mazy hasn't shaped too badly in three qualifying runs for a mark, particularly so on her first AW start when returning from a five month break at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, where the drop back to 5f looked against her, and although finishing last of the five runners in a maiden race won by an 84-rated gelding, with rivals rated in the 70s filling second and third, she did keep on quite well, albeit beaten six lengths at the finish. An opening mark of 62 looks fair on that evidence, and although she is eligible for weaker races than this one, hopefully the step up to 7f will suit, even if this turns out to be tactical with just the five runners. |
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Another couple is all you need for a big boost George,we know to our cost you can pull them out.Have you noticed the amount of winners popping up when most of us abandoned them after being let down,Sicario being a prime example,think nearly all of us had selected and napped it at some point.It shows how hard the AW is regarding form so if you even get halfway to your target it would be some achievement,good luck.
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GEORGE is the last man standing.
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Thanks for your thoughts Glen and swifty.
An afterthought, but I'm going to take a couple against the field at double-figure prices in the 6.10, hopefully with pace angles covered. Papa Don't Preach, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 6.40 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Papa Don't Preach has drfited in the betting today in the face of support for others, including two who finished behind him last time out over C/D, Army Of India and Bellagio Man. They meet him on 3lb better terms for around a length beating, so are weighted to reverse the form, but given the selection's run might have wanted marking up considering he was in the heat of the battle from some way out, perhaps it's not as clear-cut as the weight and measures might suggest, and a lot will depend on how this pans out pace-wise. Papa Don't Preach actually finished second past the post, splitting rivals who had the advantage of useful apprentice claims, before being awarded the race in the stewards' room. Paul Mulrennan hasn't retained the ride for whatever reason, but a chance is taken at the prices, particularly as he hasn't had many chances on the AW. Stone Of Destiny, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.40 Newcastle (4 PLACES) Stone Of Destiny is an 8YO now, who had a fair bit of racing for Andrew Balding, so it remains to be seen what Mick Appleby can achieve with him, but he did run well on his second start for current connections when finishing second at Southwell over 5f in December in a race that has worked out well. He's failed to make the frame in three starts since, but perhaps nowadays this stiffer track (which he has won at previously over 6f) may suit better than Lingfield, where he has raced the last twice, particularly if getting a good pace to come off. He's 2lb lower than for that aforementioned Southwell effort, and hopefully his draw in one won't prove to be an inconvenience. |
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Agree with Sone Of Destiny George, again, one of my naps as well.
Just backed it on here 25`s win Good luck |
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Good luck Shane
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Dazy Mazy seemed to finish with something still in the tank,rider of Shot In The Dark did a number on it,not much luck in running yet again.
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Can you believe it, punchestown, as you say, second time this week it's happened.
She got mullered on Dazy Mazy over two furlongs out (FL got a 3 day ban). Maybe it would have been asking too much to switch to the outer for a centre track challenge, and having persisted with the rail run, she found her path blocked again. They didn't go much pace so maybe it's form to treat with caution. These "afterthoughts" never seem to end well. Papa Don't Preach probably wasn't helped by being stood in the stalls for five minutes, but the market vibes had been dreadful all day, and he finished last. There was a bit of late-headway from Stone Of Destiny, who was also weak in the betting, but nothing to get carried away with. He'll be dropped again for this and he'll be looking well-handicapped on his Southwell run from December, but I think you'd want to see some market support before getting involved. Character building... Running P/L: +5 pts |
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Just seen that Dazy Mazy got the RP's meeting "eyecatcher". Well, time will tell.
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Arkid, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.10 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Arkid is a 15-race maiden who has made the frame previously on three occasions including over today's C/D, and I thought he shaped better than the bare result at Wolverhampton two starts back over 5f in September, when he had quite a tough trip and ended up finishing last of the eleven runners, but the run probably wasn't as bad as his finishing position suggested. He then had a break off 77 days and didn't offer much when last seen over C/D in a 0-60 handicap when racing from out of the handicap. He's back from another break here and not sure what to expect, but the drop into a 0-50 classified may help even if he isn't well in on adjusted figures, and hopefully he can be more competitive at this level. Harmonius, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.40 Southwell (4 PLACES) Harmonius doesn't help himself by starting slowly on occasions but he didn't run too badly when finishing fourth over 12f at Wolverhampton two starts back, and last time over two miles at this track (when finishing behind two of today's rivals), he did a lot of running from a wide draw after missing the break but it was only around 1.5f out that he weakened out of it. His tendency to start slowly and take some rousting is a concern, but he should appreciate this drop back in trip to 14f based on that latest evidence, and he may benefit from a fully-fledged jockey taking over from an apprentice, with Kieran O'Neill riding him for the first time. |
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* Harmonious
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Nothing from Arkid.
Harmonious was slowly away again and was unable to adopt a prominent position this time. He still came there on the far side to have his chance up the straight, but had to settle for fifth place, beaten about a head for 4th. Running P/L: +1 pt |
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Can't find your juvenile hurdle thread George but did you notice that Mr Freedom won a competitive handicap yesterday. At a nice price too.
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Better ground probably helped, sageform, hope you won a few quid.
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Not that much as I laid off from 12 to 6 but helped my day. Aucunrisque was a last minute bet also from 12 to 6 so, although it is frustrating to give away 5 points, enough of my selections trade short and get beaten to make me do that. By choosing horses at double figures that you expect to run well or make the running, you can take a decent bite and leave some for an in running punter. The going might have suited Mr Freedom but the ride he got played a part. I was annoyed to see him buried in the pack and make a couple of mistakes due to not getting a clear sight but it stopped him hanging either way until the last minute.
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Six O'Hearts, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.30 Wolverhampton
Six O'Hearts is of a little interest back at Wolverhampton where he had caught the eye over 5f in October, before finishing third of 11 a month later over the same C/D (with Fair And Square ahead of him in second) having not had the clearest of passages, and then he looked unlucky back there in December when he didn't get a clear run. The worry now is that he's had four runs since away from Wolverhampton and he hasn't looked in much form, which I'm not sure can be put down to just a change of venue, particularly as there was a period when his trainer's form ran a little cold. They are in much better form now, but as they have two yards, it's unclear as to whether one of them has been in better form than the other. As Six O'Hearts tends to be held-up, he should be helped here pace-wise with Fair And Square (who faces a more realistic task than last time when returning from a break) again in opposition if that one front-runs as usual, and hopefully the return to Dunstall Park along with the application of cheekpieces will prove the catalysts for a return to form. Sun Festival, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 6.00 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) Sun Festival had been running consistently well under Alice Bond prior to a 5-month break, and following a couple of runs back which might have been needed, I selected last time at Southwell when he was trying 11f again. He ran well considering he got took on for the lead in a race where the principals came from off the pace and he only dropped out of the places inside the final furlong. His sole win to date came over this evening's C/D off the same mark, so hopefully the drop back in grade and return here will be to his advantage, and he's well drawn to go forward if the plan is to ride him prominently again. Outbreak, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 7.00 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES) Outbreak looked a promising 2YO when winning by 5l at Salisbury from a couple who went on to show themselves to be useful sorts. He was then a little disappointing at Ayr when turned over at long odds-on under a penalty, and he only made the track once as a 3YO when finishing well-held stepped up in trip to 10f at Doncaster. He clearly has a bit to prove now and he's no longer in the ownership of Qatar Racing, but interesting that the Johnston yard is perservering with him, and he has been entered in the Lincoln. So as he remains a relatively unknown quantity, he looks a worth at least one chance to belatedly build on the potential he showed as a 2YO. |
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Didn't you do Proclivity last time George?
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I did stewarts, when she probably ran better than it looked given how freely she had raced over the 6f at Southwell. I tend to let the prices dictate when I have more than one to choose from, particularly as there was in this instance a potential track angle with Six O'Hearts, but it didn't work out on this occasion with him not offering much there. He's eligible for 0-50s / classifieds where he may be able to get more competitive but can't say I'll be rushing to select him again.
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I said in my little write-up that Sun Festival was well-drawn if the plan was to be ridden prominently again. I couldn't even get that bit right as he took some rousting along from the gate and soon found himself towards the rear as the field came across in front of him, in a race where it paid to be close to the pace. Not ideal for a horse that tends to find for pressure on the sharp end. He did keep on into a well-held fifth after meeting with a bit of trouble, but signs there that he may be having negative thoughts about the game.
I suppose you could say it was a promising return to action after nearly eleven months as Outbreak was only run out of the places late on having led for most of the journey, but not much good if you backed him each-way. Running P/L: -5 pts |
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64 days remaining
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plenny o time george jus keep doing what ya do ,itll come !
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Foyles, thanks for your optimism, but the reality is - that having started out with a target of 100 pts - it's now in the balance as to whether the thread will even end in profit.
I can't complain, I've had some nice profitable threads doing this sort of thing, but on this occasion, it's looking like my faculties are going to fail me. |
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think youll be alright george only takes 1 big un !
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King Of Bavaria, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 6.30 Newcastle
I'm going to select King Of Bavaria again who I took a chance on the previous Saturday at big odds when he ran in a Listed race at Lingfield (6f), where he finished behind Diligent Harry and Fivethousandtoone. He was only beaten just over two lengths in what admittedly was a bunch finish, but he probably shaped a little better than the bare result given he was caught wide and was then slightly impeded as Diligent Harry hung across the track in the home straight, just as Luke Morris was about to ask for maximum effort. King Of Bavaria does have a 9lb pull with Diligent Harry now they contest a handicap, though is 3lb worse off with Fivethousandtoone. The selection also has a 3lb pull with Fine Wine on their meeting at Southwell last month over 5f, and although he would be no good thing to reverse the form over that C/D, hopefully this 6f will suit him better. Pride Of Yorkshire, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 7.30 Newcastle The novice race in which Pride Of Yorkshire finished fifth over 6f at Carlisle in August has worked out quite well, with the winner going on to Group 3 success, the second subsequently winning a nursery off a mark of 79, and the third finishing a clear second on his nursery debut off a mark of 73. Pride Of Yorkshire wasn't then seen again until last month when finishing third of five in a maiden race over 5f at Wolverhampton, where he didn't face an easy task on official ratings, as highlighted by the fact that the 84-rated winner has since run well to finish second in a good handicap at Lingfield. The handicapper has dropped Pride Of Yorkshire 3lb for that reappearance run to a mark of 68, so he evidently wasn't impressed, but hopefully the selection has benefited from that first run in nearly five months and he faces a more realistic task on his handicap debut. |
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Hitting the crossbar George......like above post says...keep going ...it will come....good luck pal
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Hard to have any confidence on the AW George,Newcastle and Southwell diabolical for form,you know the inconsistencies so perhaps Ling and Wolves for the rest,unless spotting some the rest of us miss?
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Sorry again George if I'd read it I would have just added my tuppence here
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No worries dealer, just as well given the form I've been in, might have put you off!
Thanks for the comments DB & Glen. KOB, a huge drifter there, ran his race though, but not even a 9lb pull was enough to reverse the form with the class act of the race. |
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A shocker from Pride Of Yorkshire, who I didn't think moved too fluently.
The handicapper dropped him 3lb after the last run, and he doesn't look the biggest, so unless he just wants the turf, nothing positive to take from that run. Running P/L: -5.2 pts |
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Sadiqaa, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.20 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Sadiqaa has probably been running better than his form figures would suggest, including four starts back over 7f, when admittedly the first-time blinkers might have played a part, doing plenty in front before only being headed inside the final 110 yards and losing places; then on his next start over 6f he tried to keep tabs on a gambled-on winner before fading to fifth inside the final furlong; and of his two starts since, he got involved in a speed-duel over 7f under a 10lb claimer, and last time back at 6f he wasn't helped by a 4-wide trip. He's kept to 6f today and gets a headgear switch to cheekpieces, and hopefully from stall five he gets a more efficient trip than has sometimes been the case. Bright Dick, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 3.25 Dundalk (3 PLACES) Bright Dick didn't shape too badly on his handicap debut over C/D two starts back when finishing behind a couple of today's rivals whom he meets on better terms here as both Malacanne and Doctor Grace have gone up in the weights for having won since, while he has been dropped twice, including after his latest run when the drop in trip to 6f probably didn't suit and his faced a difficult task anyway in a non-handicap. He has work to do to reverse the form with Anann from that latter run but hopefully being back up in distance will help in that regard. He did actually shape as though he may want further than 7f on that penultimate run, but a chance is taken at the odds with a few firms offering three places. Picpoul, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.00 Dundalk (4 PLACES) I'm going to select Picpoul again who I selected last time on the back of an encouraging second run back from a break, which had come over 10.5f at this track. As her two career wins have come over today's C/D, I expected the return to the 12f trip last time to suit, however, it appeared she might have done too much in front and she faded inside the final furlong. It could be now she's higher in the weights, the shorter trip may suit better and she got away with the longer trip off lower marks, but I'm going to give her another chance in the hope her apprentice jockey rides her with more restraint this time, which admittedly might not be an easy task given she is drawn wide. |
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Keep going George, doing well.
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Thanks for the words of motivation, Shane, but let's be honest about it, it's been a shocker, over a month gone and I owe the bookie money.
See what the next week or two brings, but I may bring the thread to a premature end in order to prevent any further punishment. |
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George
I know you will have a different strategic approach to the AW comp but I looked at your performance in 2021/22 and you were doing ok until around this time last year when you went into overdrive. |
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You are really brave to take on Dundalk George. A puzzle I tend to keep well clear of. Desert Cop my only fancy all day on the flat.
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