Longville Lilly, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5.45 Wolverhampton

I'm going to risk a speculative each-way pick on Longville Lilly, whose two best efforts have come on turf with give and has yet to offer much on the AW,  but of her 5 starts at this track, two of them were her first two career starts and the other three have come over trips that were likely sharp enough, though she there have been one or two glimmers that she might not be a totally lost cause on the surface.

She's returning from a break but has gone well after an absence before, an if she can run to a similar level of her form from when finishing runner-up over 14f at Ffos Las in August, then hopefully she can at least press for a place here. Her owner / trainer has quite literally gone years without a winner, but hopefully the booking of Callum Shepherd is a good omen.

Shining Crystal, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.00 Dundalk

I wouldn't normally be looking to select a horse rated 50 running in a maiden race, but in one that appears to lack much depth, I'm going to take a chance each-way on Shining Crystal, albeit a minor placing may be her best hope realistically. She didn't shape too badly in three maidens at this venue over 6/7f in the first quarter of last year and then following two runs on turf, including when finishing second at Sligo in May, she was initially rated 73. Her form has gone the wrong way since, however, I thought she offered some encouragement returned to this track in a 6f maiden in November.

I selected her on the back of that run when returned to handicap company over the same trip here last month, but she failed to get involved, only being able to make limited late headway. The step back up to 7f may help as she was only beaten half-a-length when finishing 4th of ten in a C/D maiden last March, albeit one that lacked much depth.

Thank you, 'Matty

Good luck NEC. If this was on turf with some give, I'd be a lot more optimistic, but on a day when I was struggling to come up with something, I've rolled the dice at juicy odds.

Blip ….minor..

Sky Defender, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.30 Kempton

If could be the opposition will be playing for places at best given Ziggy would appear to be thrown in here based on his latest conditions race form, but a chance is taken each-way on Sky Defender, on his first start for David O'Meara. He's not getting any younger at the age of seven, but he can go well fresh, is 9lb below his last winning mark (and 4lb below his course winning mark), and has the inside draw.

He had been absent for a year prior to reappearing in October, when he didn't shape too badly at Windsor over 11.5f. It could be this is just a run for his new yard to find out where they're at with him, but if he is ready to roll, he should have frame prospects at a decent price.

Sharron Macready, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.00 Kempton (3 PLACES)

A few firms are offering three places on this 7-runner fillies' handicap and I'm going to take a chance on Sharron Macready, in the hope that she has benefited from a three-month break. She won a 6f Nottingham maiden on her 2022 reappearance in July, and although that wasn't the strongest of races, she probably did well to hang on from the 72-rated runner-up (who won an AW novice on her next start), given she got into a duel for the lead from some way out and had looked sure to be headed by the more conservatively-ridden winner. Of her three starts since, the pick of them would be when finishing a close-up 4th over 6f at Wolverhampton off a 2lb higher mark in September.

if its any solace george ive been doing my nuts the last 4 weeks...fckin hard recently mate

ups and downs george....shut down by 365,restricted by pp and sportsbook is making it difficult for me....give it another couple of months and if its still costing me ill just become a recreational singles only on betfair whenever i see a bet.

At least today's summary is only going to take two words - absolutely woeful.

There's always another day.

Running P/L: -14.3 pts

Move into February with 77 days remaining. The thread is now officially into 'requiring a minor miracle' territory.

george only 14 points down that wont be a problem for you over the remaining 70 odd days good luck .

Picpoul, 1pt EW @ 5-1, 1.42 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Picpoul is a dual C/D winner who ran well here over the stretch-10f trip on her latest start, which was her second run following an 11-month break, when never too far away, keeping on well and only losing second place in the closing stages before dropping to fifth, beaten 2.5 lengths, and finishing a length behind the more patiently-ridden Mads Black Eights, whom she meets here on 4lb better terms when claims are taken into consideration.

Hopefully now she's at peak fitness stepped back up in distance to what would appear her optimum trip.

First Charge, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 7.30 Kempton

First Charge made an encouraging return to action having been absent for nearly six months, when finishing a close-up fourth over C/D in November in a race won by Wannabe Brave, the current favourite for this. He meets the winner on 8lb better terms (3lb of which is a reduction in the weight-for-age allowance), but he's no good thing to reverse the form given the winner is improving and unexposed at the trip, particularly as First Charge has disappointed in two of his three starts since. However, there was more encouragement five days ago over the stretch-two miles at Wolverhampton, when sent off favourite, when catching the eye finishing his race off on the front foot having been poorly positioned after a slow start.

A better effort was clearly expected there judging from the market, whereas he's been easy enough to back this morning, and he doesn't have Billy Loughnane's 5lb claim this time, while another slow start / steady pace could prove him against him again, but a chance is taken at the odds on this C/D winner, with hopefully the first-time cheekpieces sharpening him up at the start.

Tinchoo, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.30 Kempton (4 PLACES)

Tinchoo failed to win in thirteen starts for Alan King, but having shaped well in the face of a tough trip on her second start for Heather Main over 11f at this track, she got off the mark on her latest start here over the same distance. Her dam was a useful and prolific winner on the AW at up to 10f and Listed level, so Tinchoo has to prove she can be as effective at this evening's 12f trip, but it would appear her new trainer has found the key to her, so hopefully she can go on improving and build on what was a career-best effort last time according to RPRs.

Thank you 'ace

Well done George, 2 placers should add a tiny bit to the P&L.

A couple of speculative ones today

Proclivity, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 1.50 Southwell (4 PLACES)

I had a "mark-up" run for Proclivity when she was trained by Michael Dods, for whom she ended her time with a poor run at Newcastle in September, and her form continued to go the wrong way for her current yard until her penultimate start over 6f at Wolverhampton, when a fairly obvious eyecatcher having not had the clearest runs before keeping on well for third place. Despite that more encouraging effort, she was absolutely friendless in the betting over the same C/D for her latest start, being sent off at 40-1, and even allowing for her being drawn wide drawn wide and having raced a little keenly, it was still a tame effort.

This is a slightly stronger race than the one she was third in, and it could be she's just more effective on turf, so not sure what to expect for a stable that continues to struggle for winners, but I'm going to take a chance EW at the odds in the hope she's in the same form she was in two starts back.

Third Avenue, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 5.05 Southwell (4 PLACES)

I selected Thunder Gap on the thread last time out when it looked as though he was in need of a stiffer test and he looks worth a go at today's stretch-two mile trip, however, at the prices I'm going to take a flyer on Third Avenue.

I had a notebook run for Third Avenue in 2021 when he was trained by John McConnell. Since leaving his previous yard, he's had two absences of around 7 months, so he evidently hasn't been the easiest to train, but he hasn't looked an entirely hopeless case in two recent AW runs for his current yard in slightly stronger races and hopefully his fitness has been advanced ahead of this drop in grade. Jason Hart is booked but not sure there is anything significant in that as he is 0-15 for the yard in the last four seasons (finished in the first four on three of them).

Morning DG

Good luck, you should be alright leaving Third Avenue out given the trainer has gone 77 runners and 930 days since his last Flat winner.

I remember back in the day when he had that good chaser, Claude Duval used to enjoy referring to him as "A Crook". He must have got a chuckle or two!

'trained by a crook', which horse is this, can you narrow it down?!

gl GEORGE, Proclivity's 3rd must give it a chance. I read Charlie Wallis is married to one of Milton Bradley's granddaughters, hence he trained the last of Milton's runners and the Hayward connection.

Nice placer George.

Cheers chaps.

Proclivity was sent off at around 94 on here. She didn't settle through the first half of the race but still came there with a challenge around a furlong out but her earlier exertions ultimately told and she faded to 6th.

Third Avenue seemed to have plenty of use made of him but kept going and held on for a place.

Running P/L: -3.9 pts

cracking selection GEORGE.

well done george ...wagons roll!

Very good place there George