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Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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Lol! I mean afters all
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Good morning Guys from a very overcast Heathrow (T4 Premier Inn).
It may be dismal looking, but nowhere near the weather conditions Bavaria (in particular München) experienced during the past week with 40 cms on snow last Saturday alone and night temperatures of -17c. As a consequence, trains and buses in the city were subject to severe delays/cancellations, in fact part of the main S8 route didn't see a train until Thursday. Driving was difficult due to Black ice and the airport was closed for almost 2 days, so i worked remote for 4 days. Back to some resemblance of normality now the temperatures have improved, but the snow will be around for some time yet. I was meant to arrive at Heathrow Thursday evening, but my late afternoon flight to Schiphol was cancelled due to freezing fog there that resulted in the airport being closed. Thankfully KLM rebooked me a flight yesterday and provided me with a hotel room (and dinner) at the airport that saved me an early morning journey from other side of the city. I'm off to Sandown later, the primary reason for my trip, meeting a few guys i go racing with including posters Lucky Lucinano and Mr Spreadsheet, assuming it's on of course. I fully expect CH and Jonbon to win, but will the former run. I have my doubts, but in my opinion he should run, the going will not be issue considering how he skipped over it when winning the Tolworth over CD, even allowing for a sub-standard field. He's a class above his rivals and wouldn't need to be 100% to win, although i don't expect a double figure winning distance and he doesn't need to win as such. Over at Aintree, i think Zambella will make all and win the listed race (12.55) he won in 2021. She has beaten her main rival Pink Legend before, although she finished behind this one at Cheltenham in March, but she didn't jump well at all. Pink Legend has a reasonable record fresh but never won in December and his Aintree record is 0-4-PU. At odds of 2.64 i Zambella can win this race again. In the Bechers handicap, i think The Big Breakaway is a tentative EW selection. A half-decent novice chaser back in time and although he hasn't won since, has run well in races he has finished, consistently placed. Ignoring the non-finishing, his record since the previous win is 2-2-3-2-3-2-2-5 and may have been a little unlucky at Haydock when just touched off. Trip and going not an issue, so at odds of 6.6 for the win and a 3/TBP for a small profit is worth a small stake. Good luck and have a nice Saturday. Thanks for the posts Lampus/Mr Spreadsheet and PHS. |
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her Aintree record is
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CH a NR, not a total shock, but i really don't understand the reasoning. A soft ground horse that was impressive on heavy over CD, runs well fresh and a field that wouldn't finish in the same parish in a champion hurdle.
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Thank you ANDREW
 Enjoy your day |
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Zambella
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Well done with Zambella Andrew , good luck with the rest of your bets and I hope you enjoy the rest of the day.
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CET is 1 hour ahead of UK ikea not behind so 1315 hrs UK would be 1415 hrs CET not 1215 hrs as you imply, never known anyone to get it that wrong in over 40 years?
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Good evening Guys,
Thank you Lampus and Second Again. A nice time at Sandown yesterday afternoon and on to South London in the evening for food, drinks and AV v Arsenal on-screen. A small group of 4, good same company as always, we all came out winning after backing similar horses and i got to have a good chat with Ed (Thompson) who laid me 800 @ 4/11 on Jonbon (also backed on here). I only had 3 bets at Sandown, 2 winners, although the other was only 60 win on the first race fav (8/11) who looked beaten at the last and a much smaller fun bet on a loser, but we were all on Zambella at Aintree who i fancied strongly. Well backed and won impressively. A decent crowd on course, weather was mixed, but generally dry and certainly warmer than München. A pity Constitution Hill didn't run, but i guess it wasn't a total shock to anyone. One bet on Friday and same today (8/11 and 2/9 respectively) has made it a profitable weekend. It doesn't always work out this well, although a couple of the winners more or less picked themselves. An early morning flight in the morning, but i will not be over again this side of Christmas. No definite plans for the festive season/NY although i would like to be over for a few days from 26th, if i don't return home to Sweden. A few of the guys are going to a open day at Dan and Claire Küblers stable to see our horse Salamanca Lad in mid-January and i could be joining them. My workload is still as manic as ever and i will be in Germany for the next 6 months at least and very likely the rest of 2024. When i came here from Linköping in early 2019, i thought it would be for the year, maybe 18 months at best, but i'm not complaining. Mind you, if Saab ever start a new project, i will return like a shot. Have a nice Sunday evening all. |
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Hi Andrew. Off topic but could you oblige and put up that link again for eye treeatment. tia.
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Sonigino one of your previous selections put up a good display at Aintree Andrew, must admit I let the weight put me off, not sure what it is with Nicholls and Sat Televised races but he makes it look easy.
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* Saturday's.
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stewartb
Looked back and this may be the post you're looking for ? Stewart/Kendo, You may not necessarily need laser surgery, but get your cataracts checked. I did mine in München (2021) the results were amazing and i can't emphasise this strongly enough. Local anaesthetic, you don't see or feel anything, surgery takes less than 15 minutes (only one eye at a time, the other 2 weeks later). The cataract is removed and replaced with a synthetic type. My eyesight improved dramatically. https://www.augenarzt-muc.de/en/cataracts/treatment/ |
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Good evening Guys,
Hayden many thanks for finding a bygone post of mine for Stewart, a nice thought and much appreciated. Stewart the link is applicable to the eye clinic in München, but i'm sure the same technology is available in GB. If so, i can recommend it big time, the difference in my eyesight level today is significant. Note it's not to be confused with Laser/Lasik treatment, it's simply replacement of the cataract with a synthetic lens. No pain whatsoever (in fact, you don't feel anything after anaesthetic drops) a circa 12 minute operation per eye (the other one done 2 weeks later) and no after effects. You are not allowed to go home alone (health and safety here). My AOK (German) health insurance paid for it with exception of just over 300 euros for an optional extra i had. I can't comment if it's available on the NHS. Glasgow correct, it was an EW selection in his previous run, 4th at 11/1. I looked at the Aintree card briefly, albeit more Zambella and the Bechers race and didn't see Sonigiono running. I noticed the result later, mind you, would i have mentioned it if i had seen it. Have a nice evening all, what's left of it at least. |
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Ikeaman, interesting you say you don't have to consider the 1 hour rule for the compy as it is something I have to remember especially when there are early starts i.e 1315 hrs Uk is 1415 hrs here. So to post a selection for say a race at 1345 hrs UK time it has to be posted before 1245 hrs here.
The thing is if I was in UK and wanted to post a selection for 1345 hrs and checked my watch and it showed 1415 hrs CET because I forgot to change it I would obviously be too late and ditto if I had remembered. What I cannot fathom is if you don't have to consider the cut off because of living in the CET zone an hour ahead how does that work for you in the UK if a post you say is made in error at 1315 hrs UK could have been in time for 1345 hrs when the actual CET was 1415 hrs? Do you see the puzzle, the time difference does not make sense in your posts as a reason, can you clarify how it works for you? TIA |
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Thanks Andrew/Hayden.
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I've had a good look at the link Andrew and as far as I can see, (apologies for the two puns) this treatment is basically for bad cataracts. I think mine are fine but a check up soon. I'll update after my next appointment but I would maybe go for laser treatment if it was recommended by my optician as it would be a bliss not wearing two pairs of glasses every day.
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Good afternoon Guys,
A short post as i'm in the city and meeting friends for a beer or two at 14.00. A half-decent card at Cheltenham, although i wasn't overly enamoured with any of the cards today, unlike a week ago and any bets i have will only be small. My shortie win bet is Western Zephyr (Hereford 2.13). A couple of placings in novice chases and may have been a little unlucky LTO (mistake at 2nd last) when just touched off. Has the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Beau Balko to beat, but he didn't find much and wouldn't have finished 2nd if Soul Icon hadn't UR 2 out. Currently odds around 7/4. In the Gold Cup Premier Handicap (Cheltenham 1.50) my EW selection is the Venetia Williams trained Frero Banbou who looked as though he was returning to form at Newbury LTO before a last fence mistake (4L clear at the time) ruined his chance, but still finished 2nd. Currently around 8/1, so a small win/3TBP. A few lays to consider. Pacini (Fairyhouse 1.05) who was beaten at 4/7 on debut based on a flat win in France (runner-up since finished 10/10) and needs to improve his hurdling. Short enough in the betting at 5/4. Broadway Boy (Cheltenham 2.25). Running well in novice chases, but first time in open company and although winning by 20 on the course LTO, he was gifted an easy lead and the field basically fell apart. May not get his own way this afternoon and it's a trappy handicap. Shanagh Bob (Cheltenham 3.00). An expensive buy after winning a P2P and win well at Plumpton, but it was an Egg and Spoon race (3rd beaten since). Nicky normally starts his decent types at grade 1 courses and perhaps punters/media are pondering if this is the next Shishkin. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Stewart
As you get older our cataracts weaken, albeit at varying degrees of course. I discussed Laser treatment at the clinic, but decided against it and i'm more than happy with the treatment i had, i don't wear visual aids at all now. I have a lot to thank the German Health service for. |
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Thank you ANDREW
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Dear oh dear! Not a great day! I only did the two backs, so got off lightly.
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Never mind Andrew, cr@p happens sometimes, you'll come back.
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Good evening Guys,
Thanks for the posts. Not much to be said, except i hold my hands up after what was certainly my worst post this year. The lays were short enough (5/4f, 11/8f and 15/8f) but getting 3/3 wrong is actually embarrassing. To make the day worse, the one runner i thought could win (my nap) was well backed and finished last of 4. At least the EW selection finished 3rd (9/1) but sods-law i didn't back it. A pity because recent weekend posts have been profitable, but we all know racing can make fools of us sometimes. Roll on Boxing day. Good luck and have a nice evening all. |
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ttt
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Happy Xmas ANDREW
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Andrews on the mulled wine at the xmas market
 . Merry xmas too all posters on this thread. |
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Seasons greetings to all on the best thread on here.
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Merry Xmas
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Good evening Guys,
Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always. No racing of course, but an opportunity to wish everyone here a wonderful Christmas festive season with your loved ones. Looking forward to a few decent UK/Irish meetings in the forthcoming few days and hoping a French novice chaser pays a few expenses on Boxing day, but more on that later. EMR I've had my share of Glühwein and Bratwurst in the past few weeks, but to be fair Germans do Christmas markets really well. Mind you the weather has been atrocious there recently including the aftermath of Storm Pia that impacted public transport and flights. I'm spending a few days back to old roots, albeit not childhood ones. Arrived at Heathrow in the early hours of Friday morning (delayed BA flight due to weather) and i'm currently in a rainy Bristol city centre hotel until Tuesday, then back to London. I had planned to go to Kempton, but i think it's very unlikely. Second again Thanks for the kind words. Have a nice Christmas eve, at least what's left of it. |
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Good morning Guys,
A short post as i have a National Express coach to catch at 13.00 (Bristol to London). Some decent racing over the next few days and if i remember correctly 12 G1 races, including 5 today. Constitution Hill the stand-out in terms of quality, but obviously not a working mans price and only for money buyers (i'm one). Regular readers know i follow French racing and one i have been waiting to run for weeks is ll Est Francais (Kempton 1.20) the best novice chaser over there. Failed to win on flat debut, albeit a decent runner-up position, followed by the same in a couple of bumpers. Went on to win 5 of 6 hurdle races including a couple of G3's and a G1. Unbeaten in 2 novice chases since and looks well above average. Up in trip and different course configuration to contend with, but good going shouldn't be an issue (has won on it). Jumps well and i think we will hear more of this one in future. My WhatsApp friends will be happy when the race is over, they are probably fed up of me mentioning him, but at least it was at 3/1 AP when i first did. I'm not really a fan of the likely favourite Hermes Allen and i think the French horse wins, currently around 2.74, although not a lump-on of course. Good luck and have a nice Boxing day all. |
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Thank you ANDREW G/L
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THANK YOU ANDREW
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Thank you Andrew, covered my bets for the day.
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Good evening Guys,
Thanks for the posts Lampus and EMR. I've been quietly confident about II Est Francais in recent weeks, the field could have been better for a G1 (a few half decent rivals were missing) and i mentioned earlier he jumps well, but he even exceeded my opinion at a few of them. This was his first race over English fences, although he's been jumping them at Auteuil as part of his education and it was also a first run on a right handed track, but it obviously didn't faze him. An impressive win and James Reveley allowed him the luxury of being eased close home. The French Gold Cup at Auteuil in May is on his agenda and he will be very short odds to win there. As for crossing the channel again, the Cheltenham festival could be a possible, but the same Kempton card in 2024 will surely give him a decent chance of another boxing day G1, it will take a very good one to beat him. Timeform subsequently upped him to a mark of 160 and he will surely be higher in the coming months, without question the best novice chaser we've seen this season to date although it's early days of course. A good day for me, only the two runners i mentioned, but the best odds i had on CH was 1.12 (here) and 1/10 (Betfred in Bristol). Have a nice Boxing day evening all. |
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Good evening Guys,
Back in München (arrived last night) after 8 really relaxing days in GB; West of London initially, then Bristol for 3 days before returning to the capital. Met up with a few family members, a bit like Santa, i only visit once a year. The English food-fix was welcoming, although i've had enough sticky toffee pudding (my favourite desert) to last me a good while. The weather could have been better, but it's the same here in Germany, although no snow, unlike the week before i left. Conversely, from a betting perspective, it couldn't have been better, after losing on the first Saturday (backed Solo who finished 2nd) i only had 6 bets in total, all winners starting with II Est Francais, then Constitution Hill, Marine National (double with a Burdett Road a NR), Gaelic Warrior, State Man and Jeriko Du Reponet. All odds-on bar the first one and easy enough to pick, but there's often one that goes down when you back a few shorties over a few days. I made a nice few bob, although i also spent a few, specifically with travelling and hotels for 3, but it was worth it. If i have a regret, it was not going to Kempton on Boxing day, but it was only a possible anyway and in the end i was on a coach from Bristol anyway. My next racing trip over will be the DRF in early February, a few of us are going, although i may go to the Küblers stable syndicate day in mid-January to see our horse Salamanca Lad. He's back in training now and had his first gallop for the stable last week; reports from Daniel and Claire are promising. As it's end of the year, this thread will drop off as per usual and i will start a new one tomorrow. I neglected the original lay format with a PL (varying reasons) but i know i finished with a loss; i can post the full record tomorrow, but on a positive note i'm still profit overall since my first lay thread in 2018. I put up plenty of winners (and losers) on other occasions, but i have no idea what the outcome was and i certainly don't want to scroll back over a year. Many thanks to everyone that contributed this year, i have always stated the thread isn't only about me and i appreciated all your posts. Sadly, we lost an occasional poster (Smirnoff) who passed away, and a more frequent poster, Alan (The Anorak) who can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him. In the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a happy and healthy 2024. Good luck all. |
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Of course he cannot read this but just a hint again 2113 hrs here, 1 hour ahead of UK, check the spreadsheet!! Buon Anno Nuovo da CET!!
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Happy new year Andrew and all.
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great user name
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chavman,
Andrew was down that neck of the woods over the weekend and could have been looking for a cheaper way to travel.  |
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Good morning Andrew and everyone, a happy & healthy New Year to you all.
I had another successful year on my dumb Lay 21 system. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwpOM0chTzuOlSQ-mY0jLuxfVWUpxQE_9bbFgLu1dfc/edit#gid=620570954 Bookmark this if anyone wants to follow my progress over the next 12 months and watch me do my pennies back. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Z5Q8hfeJNt2dqRN4ABEL45lq3dbYzkEbbXLOqfgWVM/edit#gid=0 Good Luck |