There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
06 Jul 22
11:53
Joined:
Date Joined:
27 Dec 00
Striding - I can't find the thread now - but you intriguingly posted something about experimenting with allocating a "pace rating" for a race (or something along those lines) which is something I do myself instinctively but quite informally in most 5f/6f sprints. Ever since I can remember, I have tried to do it more formally/systematically i.e. to allocate an actual number or percentage relating to the "pace collapse likelihood" (or not) in a race.
It's a profitable angle (both expecting the collapse or not) in 5f/6f races (mostly for laying and place laying - but also for betting/dutching at big prices) but my repeated (on and off) efforts have failed to ever achieve a numeric or % value for a race - mostly due to the variants of the going and the draw, so I'm left with a crude manual approach that still works well but isn't really compatible with my overwhelming OCD need to assign an exact numeric rating or a precise mathematical solution!
Anyway, cutting to the chase (finally, I hear you sigh!) - I wondered what you make of the 15:00 race at Lingfield today?
For me - With up to 6 out of the 8 runners probably wanting/needing to lead, it's the highest "pace collapse rating" I have ever seen (from my most recent - bodged and probably flawed efforts at assigning a numeric value to it). The caveat is, that I normally require a double figure (10+) field to bother with - but I often have to look at only 8 or 9 runners on the AW in Jan/Feb etc.
A bit annoyed about the 'dead-eight" runners for EW purposes - but assuming all 8 run, a process of elimination has very clearly left me with only the 2 outsiders i.e. Saaheq and to a slightly lesser extent Sir Rodneyredblood. (probably both to win & to place).
When it goes wrong (by it's very nature), it goes spectacularly wrong - hence the strong preference for laying/place laying shorties or dutching/betting long shots (as per this race). Do you have a view on the race and does it look like a near certain "pace collapse" to you? TIA
It's a profitable angle (both expecting the collapse or not) in 5f/6f races (mostly for laying and place laying - but also for betting/dutching at big prices) but my repeated (on and off) efforts have failed to ever achieve a numeric or % value for a race - mostly due to the variants of the going and the draw, so I'm left with a crude manual approach that still works well but isn't really compatible with my overwhelming OCD need to assign an exact numeric rating or a precise mathematical solution!
Anyway, cutting to the chase (finally, I hear you sigh!) - I wondered what you make of the 15:00 race at Lingfield today?
For me - With up to 6 out of the 8 runners probably wanting/needing to lead, it's the highest "pace collapse rating" I have ever seen (from my most recent - bodged and probably flawed efforts at assigning a numeric value to it). The caveat is, that I normally require a double figure (10+) field to bother with - but I often have to look at only 8 or 9 runners on the AW in Jan/Feb etc.
A bit annoyed about the 'dead-eight" runners for EW purposes - but assuming all 8 run, a process of elimination has very clearly left me with only the 2 outsiders i.e. Saaheq and to a slightly lesser extent Sir Rodneyredblood. (probably both to win & to place).
When it goes wrong (by it's very nature), it goes spectacularly wrong - hence the strong preference for laying/place laying shorties or dutching/betting long shots (as per this race). Do you have a view on the race and does it look like a near certain "pace collapse" to you? TIA
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 129
|
By:
Easy race. Kim Wexler is a mega giga lay, fav is pretty good.
|
|
By:
with so many front runners and the way this race may pan out, Wings Of A Dove might be able to take advantage and a small saver on Sir Rodneyredblood who has won over 6f another angle
 |
|
By:
Thank you Gaze - much obliged for your detailed, insightful and comprehensive input.
|
|
By:
The trouble is Gaze your mega lays become Mega backs in running , would this be one if it hit 50??
|
|
By:
Ta foxy - as per the other thread, I though Wings of A Dove was an annoying "loose end" and the one most likely to scupper my approach to the race if I am correct and they go too fast, too early. i.e. possibly the most versatile runner in the race and therefore possibly the hardest to predict.
|
|
By:
Do you have a pace rating for the Yarmouth 4:40 TM?, mine is 6.0
|
|
By:
Striding - sorry, had to pop out! - I couldn't express it as a number even if I wanted to!
 or at least not a number that I would be happy with!With the pace angle, I'm always looking for a "guaranteed true run" race, so don't usually bother with less than 10 runners. I was only attracted to this 8 runner race at Lingfield today due to a combination of the unusually weighted make-up of running styles and thinking that I remembered you referencing a "pace rating" the other day. Also I am lazy and realistic in equal proportions, so although I have other "angles" for all kinds of races - I don't spend a lot of (pre-race) time on this approach (pace) for Sprint Handicaps restricted to 2yo's only (Nurseries = guess work imo) 3yo's only (more guess work imo!) or mares/fillies only races (maybe sexist! - but they are not consistent imo). If forced, At a glance I would define that race (16:40) as "low" but I just wouldn't approach it from a pace or early speed angle. |
|
By:
The 2:10 Yarmouth mile hcp
pace rating here is only 2.3  |
|
By:
Striding probably yes because poor value steamers never lose, but I think Kim is a 9/1 shot.
|
|
By:
Also, for those who don't know, Kim Wexler is a character from Better Call Saul, I just finished season 6 two days ago.
|
|
By:
Back From Dubai
Has shown some early pace in a number of much better turf races though only wins have been at Southwell. Last run showed early speed to track leaders before door was firmly shut up the inside and lost position. Earlier season run at Donny when 3rd also a much better race than this. Got to be a very interesting horse in the 2:10 If my speed rating is accurate of the likely pace! |
|
By:
GL striding - it would be good to have a thread on this, it's an interesting topic imo. I would only comment on 5f/6f handicaps for 3yo+ and even then would put a line through them if too many unexposed 3yo's.
Exposed (therefore probably older) horses with established, well know running style preferences is my interest - and although this is perhaps obvious to everybody, it's then the mixture and make-up or balance/imbalance of running styles in a (sprint) race that makes it of interest to me. |
|
By:
Use this thread TM see how it goes always like to hear other views and this is an angle I'd like to try and pursue mate.
 |
|
By:
Today's 2 races at opposite ends of spectrum.
2:10 Yarmouth EPR (early pace rating) is 2.3 Back From Dubai (has shown definite early in better races) 3:00 Lingfield is 9.8, Micks Spirit (has plenty of speed but I don't think it has to lead either) not prepared to put my money where my mouth is yet though, see how we go. |
|
By:
I was going to suggest that in the unlikely event I have the 15:00 winner as per my opening post (even dutched it's about 12/1 against!), then we use this thread. But if not - you start your own thread!
 Just kidding - happy to use this thread. |
|
By:
 |
|
By:
well it led a long way and got in the places
just looks better on the AW, doesn't half sweat up too! |
|
By:
Good shout SE (14:10 Back from Dubai) and hopefully profitable at some big prices earlier.
|
|
By:
I'm looking forward to that Leafy 3:00 even though I'm not punting in it. How sad am I.
That was Rhetorical btw. |
|
By:
I was never going to bet in that race as it's not my cuppa but after these couple of threads about it, will have very small bets on the aforementioned
|
|
By:
TM
Are you suggesting that AW is preferable because of varying going on turf, whereas AW going is more consistent? And how would you relate the pace and the collapse factors between AW and different turf goings? |
|
By:
Same here - 3 afternoon meetings and a Class 5 AW H/Cap is the most interesting race of the day (imo).
|
|
By:
I have invested £3.49 on this race now
Matched bets Order by matched date Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit Wings Of A Dove 8.4 £1.00 £7.40 Wings Of A Dove 8.4 £1.49 £11.03 Sir Rodneyredblood 21 £0.37 £7.40 Sir Rodneyredblood 21 £0.63 £12.60 |
|
By:
Now you'll see Kim Wexler run like a jester.
|
|
By:
Micks Spirit can lead or just tuck in.
Got a good draw here to work from & can go in again in this. GL ALL |
|
By:
Hi Rigsby - those are tough questions to answer imo (so many variables) without writing an essay!
In short - because of all the idiosyncracies and variables of both the UK race courses and the horses themselves, plus the make up/mix of the race - I'd say every race is unique! That's not quite true - but can i take a rain check on a more detailed answer? - and reply when got more time. |
|
By:
Kim Wexler a true jester, shoulda listened.
|
|
By:
oi oi TM
 |
|
By:
That run to the first bend was funny as
|
|
By:
Boom, Saaheq
|
|
By:
Jackpot!!
Striding - like i said all along - we should use this thread! |
|
By:
Superb TM, not many can tip a 33/1 winner pre race
|
|
By:
A perfect scenario did ensue for a late closer
nailed it TM. one for the pace ratings |
|
By:
Brilliant, TM.
|
|
By:
OP
wd GL |
|
By:
I think it will be a while before we see 9.8 btn on the pace predictor TM
 |
|
By:
Striding - yes! Thanks for confirming with your 9.8! It was the highest I ever saw too - but not a big sample here for races with just the 8 runners.
Other folk! - Thanks all for the WD's. Would post my bets but would be slightly embarrassed about the paucity of my stakes and much more embarrassed about the win prices that I took (fecked it right up!). Did a bit better in the place market. |
|
By:
You were definitely on the case there TM...great post
|
|
By:
What paucity? Don't tell me you had 2 quid ew on a 33/1 cert.
|