I am using Horseracebase, a fairly new feature has been added that gives the last 10 early running styles for each runner in a race.

This should not be confused with a horses general speed or turn of foot.

Morning TM

4.9

Yes a middling rating TM.

is horseracingbase 25 a month

Not really found anything of note today the 4:50 Nottingham has a rating of 1.8 which is right on the minimum so far.

But it's unreliable as there is not enough evidence in hcp company for some of the runners.

The horse I've mentioned on GEORGE'S thread Raydoun I'm hoping will struggle in the 6:47 Hamilton if my EPR of 3.0 holds up. Hamilton is a stiff track granted but off a slow early pace I can't see it having the gears over 5f.

I've got nothing again today (like yesterday, mostly the fields are just too small). The 19:17 Hamilton is the only race over the distance (5f or 6f) with sufficient runners (10 or more) and mostly comprising of the necessary (for me) older/more exposed horses.

I have been trying hard to justify the bet I have already had in that race (Mr Lupton) on some sort of basis of early speed/pace ratings (i.e. specifically for this thread) - but I can't do it! - The "pace rating" really just isn't quite high enough to make that the reason for the bet.

So nothing to do with this topic whatsoever really! - but I have backed the old fella (Mr Lupton) anyway -  because he has sorted me out at a price a good few times over the years and he is dangerously well handicapped if he still maintains his enthusiasm for the game at 9 years old. Three of his ten lifetime victories have come with Jamie Spencer on board, which is really all you need to know about his running style! - but also he wins every season without fail and he quite often likes to do it on his third outing of the year. GL.

Horses like Raydoun however I look at the race it's in to me it just looks like it's really up against it. My pace rating has to be wrong or it has to show something completely different tonight to figure.

Of course it's horse racing and results can always surprise.

My interest today is to see whether it's drifting price (4.5 when posted on GEORGE'S thread earlier vying for 2nd fav) continues and whether the race goes to plan with a moderate early then kick second half.

Rhythm (who I thought was suited by today's likely EPR/conditions)was 12.0 when posting on GEORGE's thread and is now the same price as Raydoun!

I wouldn't worry about that TM, this is just part of normal form study most races will be inconclusive with the EPR rating.

Agree - I just really thrive on the races where I make the rating very high (likely they will go too fast, too soon)- but there aren't enough of just those on their own (the way I do it) to make for a lively thread.

Agree that the extremes are best - so I might have to start looking at "low ratings" rather than just my preference for high - and maybe be a bit more flexible with my race type (distance & field size). But let me know when you think you have a good high one!

So many variables! - Once I get into the realms of 4 places (normal terms), 16+ runners, I don't think my way of doing it works so well, so I'm probably approaching the race from a different "angle" than this one anyway!

Yes - big fields create a problem for me (the way that I do it). As per my opening post, it's very hard (for me) to assign a numeric value/rating (that I trust is accurate as a comparator) unless the make-up of the race is quite specific. 

I'm not saying I'm fussy - but for this approach (the way I do it), in a nutshell, I need preferably a Handicap over 5f or 6f furlongs, not too many runners, not too few runners, not 2yo's only (nurseries), not 3yo's only, not 3yo+ with lots of unexposed 3yo's. As I said - not fussy!

A strange race for me a claiming hcp class 2, Kevin Ryan's horse Ventura Rascal went very close in a similar race last September over CD.

TM

I see Rory is in another 6f 3yo+ race at Ayr on monday

Right grade of race but wrong conditions for me especially with potentially unexposed 3yo's to consider too.

I think he could possibly even win at Musselburgh again in 0-65 company at 5f, stronger races just catch him out a bit and they get away a bit too much early on as in it's last run there which was very good in 0-85 company, this was a 3yo+ race but the pair were unfancied.

But after winning at Hamilton where there is longer to get organised a 0-65 there looks rife for the taking.
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I just don't get the placement of this horse but I often struggle with Jim as a trainer.

5.5 furlong horse imo

Will watch with interest if he does race over the 6f again on Monday.

Raydoun had no gears for that challenge tonight pleasing.

Rhythm was too far back, the first 3 stayed in the first 3 all race.

Timeform had it top rated I couldn't have it in that race at conditions.

True - early place markets are utterly dire - but it shortened up a good bit after drifting all day.

When do you look to do your place bets.

For me the market fills around t-3?

When do you look to do your place bets.

It's variable - but obviously late is sometimes/often the only option really!

Watching it too.

Mr Lupton (19:17 Hamilton) was utterly friendless (apart from me! ) and ran accordingly.

theres fook all pace on running styles lol.

racing tv two of them saying the race is full of pace.

crystal ball stuff.