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Calling Striding Edge - "Pace Rating"
Calling Striding Edge - "Pace Rating"
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Replies: 129
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Any news on the injured horse?
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good thread with some different insights and no hostility in view (a rarity these days) a 28/1 winner to boot so imagine 36+BSP
wd guys  |
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well done the managment
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management
management^^ |
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I like this approach, you backed a winner that was 100% unbackable on its 2022 form.
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swifty - I don't know if you are being sarcastic or not! Obviously backing at 28/1 ISP is always going to involve an element of a "leap of faith" but I made my rationale fairly clear in a very long and rambling opening post!
The pace angle aside - The old fella (Saaheq) was racing in a Class 5 Handicap for the first time in ages - and the last time he did so - he won over Course and Distance! Today he had a mark of just 65 (with a claimer taking off another 3lbs). He has won from a mark as high as 87 on the turf in the past - but had also won over Course & Distance twice from marks of 70 and 76 (the 76 was the last time he ran in a C5 over C&D) without a claiming jockey. So 65 today with a 3lbs claimer wasn't "unbackable" imo. As per my opening post though - I was honest in admitting that i got left with him as a selection somewhat, via a process of elimination - but that is how this (pace) approach works for me. If all the winners were the ones with the best recent form, there wouldn't be any bookies and the 2/1 jolly would win all the races! |
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Also in tribute to Gaze - and as I have stated many times previously - horses with double A's ("aa") in their name never lose!
 In a less sarcastic tribute to others. Striding Edge confirmed that he thought the race was the most top heavy on early pace that he had seen recently and bluebook started a thread saying the same thing while I was typing out this one. |
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Ha! No TM, when I read it back it did appear like that. But no, i liked the way you evaluated the way the race may pan out pacewise, and Saaheq was well-in on old form. Personally I couldn't back the horse today having seen him run this year all times poorly but you highlighted he was now in a race that could be run to suit, wd.
Also agree, 'form book' selections will be priced accordingly and can make it a tough job. There has to be another way! |
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swifty
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I've got lazy as I've got older so if/when you've perfected the pace-ratings please PM them to me daily , ta
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I think form this race I'd mark up Pepper Streak a bit on what it's actually done.
It was second in for me on the individual early pace ratings to The Defiant top speed, I must admit I wasn't sure from their draws they'd make the bend. Today The Defiant was held back a bit in mid div so it looks like it's ability to go a strong pace held it in good stead and it conserved a bit but got chinned late.Pepper Streak has got over and managed to lead running a bit free and managed to keep going well in the closing stages still. |
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It wasn't a complete surprise, a certain cervice had Saaheq as a free pick today
https://snipboard.io/CZ3vIg.jpg |
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Also he traded at 100 IR, mug IR layers.
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Lol Gaz you do make me laugh.
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If Pepper Streak gets in a similar 0-70 with a lower pace score it's got to be very dangerous at a track like Lingfield.
The slight concern is it got very warm today (don't know if that's the norm) and it can be a tad keen but Lingfield on that score is a good place to get away with it. Anyway it's in the tracker. |
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WD TM
'Pace' is one of lifes mysteries (to me) See various websites pushing it ala USA Too many variables GL getting in to it Still keeping an eye on the reverse bojo bottle Slim chances on flat, AW and summer jumps slow going Might have to change title to Rishi's bottle with the goings on  |
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I tried to look into pace once. I thought laying the horse with the slowest pace in sprints would be profitable. The very first lay came in, so I gave up the idea.
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well done TM and striding, a most interesting post with a happy ending
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1:40 Carlisle (a low EPR of 2.6) Eclipse De Lunar (IRE)
The price has been ruined already today as far as I'm concerned. When I looked at the RP tissue last night I thought anything 12/1+ was fair. It was a prominent racer in it's good spell last season on that evidence it's looking well treated again.Recent tactics on the whole have been much more subdued. In a race where my early pace prediction is low I would expect with Dave Allan back on board a much more prominent ride, not worried about the trip if it's ridden in such a way (shorter than it's 2 hcp wins) but it's 2 efforts on right handed tracks are a bit of a concern(raced awkward here when a short fav last season) and reappearance at Musselburgh (perhaps run was needed a lot of his are not ready early season). Of course we have a SMP fav that is likely to improve for the trip so always a danger though the record with hcp debutantes is probably not as good as many would think. |
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Well done TM, brilliant..
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Interesting race,striding
Cappoquin,strictly on wfa isn’t that well in,but I think SMP has been hiding the true potential of the horse,and today first time handicap and up in trip it will be revealed,has to be taken on blind trust though.  |
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Yes TF his runner is part of the reason I would want a better price on Tim's, the other being excusing a horse a lot of runs without really showing up in hcps is always fraught with danger. As with TM's pick yesterday you need a price for runners when you are relying on back class and a hunch that it's been tenderly handled to get it's mark down.
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Good morning SE,
I'm gonna have to pass today. I stretched it a bit yesterday by doing an 8 runner race, due to the "at a glance" extreme make-up of running styles in that race giving it what I thought (and you kindly confirmed) was an extraordinary/extreme "pace rating" - but as stated, it's a crude, manual (sometimes runner by runner) process that I use. So it's time consuming and I only really use that "will the pace collapse or not" approach in 5f/6f sprint handicaps for older horses with 10+ runners. No strict rules but I don't like puzzles that I think are too difficult (for me) so unless (like yesterday) an extreme make-up of singular run-styles leaps off the page at me, I don't usually look at less than 10 runners, Nurseries, 3yo only H'caps, Fillies/Mares only races, 3yo+ Handicaps packed with lightly raced 3yos or anything else that feels like too much guesswork (imo). I do play those races in other ways - but not via a pre-race assessment of pace/early speed type of approach. Everything today at 5f & 6f is a no-go for me, for one or another of the reasons stated above. I love that you are looking at a middle distance race! - I just know that the "pace angle" doesn't work (for me and my crude methods) or only works in small fields where I sometimes suspect or hope for a false/slow run race! That particular race today (13:40) is ruined for me as a betting proposition by the SMP 3YO! - Everything has a price, so I get your thinking. I never say never (or have unbreakable rules) but it just feels a bit "guessy" as to will she or won't see? - and that will shape both the prices and the outcome of the race - more so than any "angle" that I could come at it with. If I don't have much to contribute (quite likely now that Nurseries etc have started), keep the thread going or start another one - it's a good/interesting topic imo. GL. |
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Hi There TM.
For me it's just one ingredient in the study of a race. Of course we won't see examples like yesterday's every day and the extremes will always cause the greatest fascination for me. I don't really mind what distance it is as long as there is plenty of information available for the runners then I'm just using the expected early pace with horses I know have coped well with it in the past at similar conditions. I have Tim Easterby as a cyclical trainer with a big percentage of his runners, when they get too high in the hcp he knows how to get them back in the zone and plenty of his mediocre handicappers have a fair longevity.When the tactics or conditions make no sense to me I'm usually thinking it's part of his plan rather than him not having a clue lol. I thought the price had gone earlier there's absolutely nothing in it now. I will keep the thread going but I am going away for a few days tomorrow to visit my parents in cornwall. |
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striding.Always enjoy reading your posts. I'm actually off for a month or so in a few weeks time. The usually annual (but we've missed the last 2 years) pilgrimage to the States & Canadia to weedle our way back into the wills of various ancient relatives, the "outlaws" and to see a couple of my offspring! Thanks Macintoshmatty and Billy Liddell (also well done yesterday Billy!) Hello Madhatters! - I have tried and failed to inject some reality into the Boris Is Bottle (sic) thread. I only succeeded in making myself public enemy number one! To be fair, (although backing them under the right conditions would still be far more profitable), he is currently on a roll from laying them, that can only be described in poker parlance as "running like a god!" Good to hear from you. |
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Cheers TM, sounds like a trip and a half, enjoy.
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I just found this is my "New Messages" - so probably just as well I am going away!
 wondak1d Report this message: Hello Jul 6, 03:18PM Hello can you stop to give tips to people make small price for us soon. Ty I am very flattered wondak1d! - but if I remember correctly, Saaheq was trading at 26/27 when I "tipped it" and it returned at BFSP of 34.76! So let me know if you want me to shorten up any others! |
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HaHa TM
I see Rory (Jim Goldie smashed last time until a bit of a late ease in mkt) is due to run at Ayr in a 0-65 on Monday was also entered in a much better (0-85) race both entries were over 6f. I think it's potentially chucked in a 0-65 but I'm not sure about the trip. From a pace perspective he's been getting outpaced early around Musselburgh 5f, last time with a high pace rating of 8.9. Can be a bit slow from the stalls but come the end of the race finishing to good effect just found 0-85 level too hot at that track. IF he stayed 6f (I'd be worried on a galloping track he'd be too keen) would be a huge threat. I was hoping Jim would bang him out back at Hamilton over 5f with a slight drop in grade from the recent 0-85, 0-65 company at that track over 5f would take some stopping IMO. There was a good thread I contributed on from a pace perspective from it's last run at Musselburgh with the OP just missing out with the other Goldie runner Primos Comet who is out again today (not looked at race). |
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Tim's runner in the 1:40 is now 4.3 fav lol
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9.4 @ 8:43 am
with deductions since and no movement would have been around 8.0 still. Be fascinating what the proper market makes of it when it fills in properly. |
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Just noticed - even with a few small (but cumulative) reduction factors, you have moved the markets and will be hearing from wondak1d soon imo!
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Thank god for price discipline, perhaps that trip is too short for Tim's now but excuses starting to build up.
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I have posted on the Faye Mcmanoman thread about this race already. The lowest EPR to date (1.8) is today's 4:00 Chepstow.
A SLOW run race early you would think should favour Regulator but this trip is right on it's extreme IMO in terms of stamina limitation, if it's to win over this trip I would think it would be doing it off a slow early pace ridden to kick using it's mile speed and try and hang on. Really couldn't confidently say what will make the early running but I am fascinated to see how Hollie Doyle and Faye Mcmanoman ride theirs which are usually held up.Fayes horse IMO has been given too much to do in some recent runs and has to be nearer the pace today and get an uninterrupted run to the line. |
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I had 10 lays in the past 2 days, IR winners at 55 (WRATH OF HECTOR), 60(Enraged) and 130(Vandad). You still reckon I shouldn't green up?
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It's almost as if the IR layers are gigamugs.
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Hi Striding - hope your break in the West country was all good.
I have got nothing in the 5f/6f races today (mostly the fields are too small for the way I like to do it). The 14:20 Hamilton was the only race over the distance (5f or 6f) with sufficient runners (10+) and a lot of exposed (older) runners - I spent a good while on it, before eventually filing it under "g", for grim! |
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Yes cheers TM the Emmet has returned.
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For today's race I'd like to see Regulator the overall speed horse go close to winning getting first run off a slow early pace getting collared by Beryl Burton ridden nearer the pace than usual in the latter stages.
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Pace was steady after Tio Mio briefly looked like it might go on and really stretch them early.
Regulator ran no race really folded tamely Beryl Burton was in the right place to quicken later in race given closer order thana some recent efforts. |
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Beryl Burton was battered today 2.49 BFSP way shorter than I'd have thought.
have to say a good bit of placement by trainer with riding instructions spot on. |