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06 Jul 22
11:53
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27 Dec 00
Striding - I can't find the thread now - but you intriguingly posted something about experimenting with allocating a "pace rating" for a race (or something along those lines) which is something I do myself instinctively but quite informally in most 5f/6f sprints. Ever since I can remember, I have tried to do it more formally/systematically i.e. to allocate an actual number or percentage relating to the "pace collapse likelihood" (or not) in a race.
It's a profitable angle (both expecting the collapse or not) in 5f/6f races (mostly for laying and place laying - but also for betting/dutching at big prices) but my repeated (on and off) efforts have failed to ever achieve a numeric or % value for a race - mostly due to the variants of the going and the draw, so I'm left with a crude manual approach that still works well but isn't really compatible with my overwhelming OCD need to assign an exact numeric rating or a precise mathematical solution!
Anyway, cutting to the chase (finally, I hear you sigh!) - I wondered what you make of the 15:00 race at Lingfield today?
For me - With up to 6 out of the 8 runners probably wanting/needing to lead, it's the highest "pace collapse rating" I have ever seen (from my most recent - bodged and probably flawed efforts at assigning a numeric value to it). The caveat is, that I normally require a double figure (10+) field to bother with - but I often have to look at only 8 or 9 runners on the AW in Jan/Feb etc.
A bit annoyed about the 'dead-eight" runners for EW purposes - but assuming all 8 run, a process of elimination has very clearly left me with only the 2 outsiders i.e. Saaheq and to a slightly lesser extent Sir Rodneyredblood. (probably both to win & to place).
When it goes wrong (by it's very nature), it goes spectacularly wrong - hence the strong preference for laying/place laying shorties or dutching/betting long shots (as per this race). Do you have a view on the race and does it look like a near certain "pace collapse" to you? TIA
It's a profitable angle (both expecting the collapse or not) in 5f/6f races (mostly for laying and place laying - but also for betting/dutching at big prices) but my repeated (on and off) efforts have failed to ever achieve a numeric or % value for a race - mostly due to the variants of the going and the draw, so I'm left with a crude manual approach that still works well but isn't really compatible with my overwhelming OCD need to assign an exact numeric rating or a precise mathematical solution!
Anyway, cutting to the chase (finally, I hear you sigh!) - I wondered what you make of the 15:00 race at Lingfield today?
For me - With up to 6 out of the 8 runners probably wanting/needing to lead, it's the highest "pace collapse rating" I have ever seen (from my most recent - bodged and probably flawed efforts at assigning a numeric value to it). The caveat is, that I normally require a double figure (10+) field to bother with - but I often have to look at only 8 or 9 runners on the AW in Jan/Feb etc.
A bit annoyed about the 'dead-eight" runners for EW purposes - but assuming all 8 run, a process of elimination has very clearly left me with only the 2 outsiders i.e. Saaheq and to a slightly lesser extent Sir Rodneyredblood. (probably both to win & to place).
When it goes wrong (by it's very nature), it goes spectacularly wrong - hence the strong preference for laying/place laying shorties or dutching/betting long shots (as per this race). Do you have a view on the race and does it look like a near certain "pace collapse" to you? TIA
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Jackpot!!
Striding - like i said all along - we should use this thread!
Striding - like i said all along - we should use this thread!
A perfect scenario did ensue for a late closer
nailed it TM.
one for the pace ratings
nailed it TM.
one for the pace ratings
I think it will be a while before we see 9.8 btn on the pace predictor TM 
Striding - yes! Thanks for confirming with your 9.8! It was the highest I ever saw too - but not a big sample here for races with just the 8 runners.
Other folk! - Thanks all for the WD's.
Would post my bets but would be slightly embarrassed about the paucity of my stakes and much more embarrassed about the win prices that I took (fecked it right up!). Did a bit better in the place market.
Other folk! - Thanks all for the WD's.
Would post my bets but would be slightly embarrassed about the paucity of my stakes and much more embarrassed about the win prices that I took (fecked it right up!). Did a bit better in the place market.
What paucity? Don't tell me you had 2 quid ew on a 33/1 cert.
good thread with some different insights and no hostility in view (a rarity these days) a 28/1 winner to boot so imagine 36+BSP
wd guys
wd guys
I like this approach, you backed a winner that was 100% unbackable on its 2022 form.
swifty - I don't know if you are being sarcastic or not! Obviously backing at 28/1 ISP is always going to involve an element of a "leap of faith" but I made my rationale fairly clear in a very long and rambling opening post!
The pace angle aside - The old fella (Saaheq) was racing in a Class 5 Handicap for the first time in ages - and the last time he did so - he won over Course and Distance! Today he had a mark of just 65 (with a claimer taking off another 3lbs). He has won from a mark as high as 87 on the turf in the past - but had also won over Course & Distance twice from marks of 70 and 76 (the 76 was the last time he ran in a C5 over C&D) without a claiming jockey.
So 65 today with a 3lbs claimer wasn't "unbackable" imo. As per my opening post though - I was honest in admitting that i got left with him as a selection somewhat, via a process of elimination - but that is how this (pace) approach works for me. If all the winners were the ones with the best recent form, there wouldn't be any bookies and the 2/1 jolly would win all the races!
The pace angle aside - The old fella (Saaheq) was racing in a Class 5 Handicap for the first time in ages - and the last time he did so - he won over Course and Distance! Today he had a mark of just 65 (with a claimer taking off another 3lbs). He has won from a mark as high as 87 on the turf in the past - but had also won over Course & Distance twice from marks of 70 and 76 (the 76 was the last time he ran in a C5 over C&D) without a claiming jockey.
So 65 today with a 3lbs claimer wasn't "unbackable" imo. As per my opening post though - I was honest in admitting that i got left with him as a selection somewhat, via a process of elimination - but that is how this (pace) approach works for me. If all the winners were the ones with the best recent form, there wouldn't be any bookies and the 2/1 jolly would win all the races!
Also in tribute to Gaze - and as I have stated many times previously - horses with double A's ("aa") in their name never lose!
In a less sarcastic tribute to others. Striding Edge confirmed that he thought the race was the most top heavy on early pace that he had seen recently and bluebook started a thread saying the same thing while I was typing out this one.
In a less sarcastic tribute to others. Striding Edge confirmed that he thought the race was the most top heavy on early pace that he had seen recently and bluebook started a thread saying the same thing while I was typing out this one.
Ha! No TM, when I read it back it did appear like that. But no, i liked the way you evaluated the way the race may pan out pacewise, and Saaheq was well-in on old form. Personally I couldn't back the horse today having seen him run this year all times poorly but you highlighted he was now in a race that could be run to suit, wd.
Also agree, 'form book' selections will be priced accordingly and can make it a tough job. There has to be another way!
Also agree, 'form book' selections will be priced accordingly and can make it a tough job. There has to be another way!
I've got lazy as I've got older so if/when you've perfected the pace-ratings please PM them to me daily , ta 
I think form this race I'd mark up Pepper Streak a bit on what it's actually done.
It was second in for me on the individual early pace ratings to The Defiant top speed, I must admit I wasn't sure from their draws they'd make the bend. Today The Defiant was held back a bit in mid div so it looks like it's ability to go a strong pace held it in good stead and it conserved a bit but got chinned late.Pepper Streak has got over and managed to lead running a bit free and managed to keep going well in the closing stages still.
It was second in for me on the individual early pace ratings to The Defiant top speed, I must admit I wasn't sure from their draws they'd make the bend. Today The Defiant was held back a bit in mid div so it looks like it's ability to go a strong pace held it in good stead and it conserved a bit but got chinned late.Pepper Streak has got over and managed to lead running a bit free and managed to keep going well in the closing stages still.
It wasn't a complete surprise, a certain cervice had Saaheq as a free pick today
https://snipboard.io/CZ3vIg.jpg
https://snipboard.io/CZ3vIg.jpg
If Pepper Streak gets in a similar 0-70 with a lower pace score it's got to be very dangerous at a track like Lingfield.
The slight concern is it got very warm today (don't know if that's the norm) and it can be a tad keen but Lingfield on that score is a good place to get away with it.
Anyway it's in the tracker.
The slight concern is it got very warm today (don't know if that's the norm) and it can be a tad keen but Lingfield on that score is a good place to get away with it.
Anyway it's in the tracker.
WD TM
'Pace' is one of lifes mysteries (to me)
See various websites pushing it ala USA
Too many variables
GL getting in to it
Still keeping an eye on the reverse bojo bottle
Slim chances on flat, AW and summer jumps slow going
Might have to change title to Rishi's bottle with the goings on
'Pace' is one of lifes mysteries (to me)
See various websites pushing it ala USA
Too many variables
GL getting in to it
Still keeping an eye on the reverse bojo bottle
Slim chances on flat, AW and summer jumps slow going
Might have to change title to Rishi's bottle with the goings on
I tried to look into pace once. I thought laying the horse with the slowest pace in sprints would be profitable. The very first lay came in, so I gave up the idea.
well done TM and striding, a most interesting post with a happy ending
1:40 Carlisle (a low EPR of 2.6) Eclipse De Lunar (IRE)
The price has been ruined already today as far as I'm concerned. When I looked at the RP tissue last night I thought anything 12/1+ was fair.
It was a prominent racer in it's good spell last season on that evidence it's looking well treated again.Recent tactics on the whole have been much more subdued. In a race where my early pace prediction is low I would expect with Dave Allan back on board a much more prominent ride, not worried about the trip if it's ridden in such a way (shorter than it's 2 hcp wins) but it's 2 efforts on right handed tracks are a bit of a concern(raced awkward here when a short fav last season) and reappearance at Musselburgh (perhaps run was needed a lot of his are not ready early season).
Of course we have a SMP fav that is likely to improve for the trip so always a danger though the record with hcp debutantes is probably not as good as many would think.
The price has been ruined already today as far as I'm concerned. When I looked at the RP tissue last night I thought anything 12/1+ was fair.
It was a prominent racer in it's good spell last season on that evidence it's looking well treated again.Recent tactics on the whole have been much more subdued. In a race where my early pace prediction is low I would expect with Dave Allan back on board a much more prominent ride, not worried about the trip if it's ridden in such a way (shorter than it's 2 hcp wins) but it's 2 efforts on right handed tracks are a bit of a concern(raced awkward here when a short fav last season) and reappearance at Musselburgh (perhaps run was needed a lot of his are not ready early season).
Of course we have a SMP fav that is likely to improve for the trip so always a danger though the record with hcp debutantes is probably not as good as many would think.
Interesting race,striding
Cappoquin,strictly on wfa isn’t that well in,but I think SMP has been hiding the true potential of the horse,and today first time handicap and up in trip it will be revealed,has to be taken on blind trust though.
Cappoquin,strictly on wfa isn’t that well in,but I think SMP has been hiding the true potential of the horse,and today first time handicap and up in trip it will be revealed,has to be taken on blind trust though.
Yes TF his runner is part of the reason I would want a better price on Tim's, the other being excusing a horse a lot of runs without really showing up in hcps is always fraught with danger. As with TM's pick yesterday you need a price for runners when you are relying on back class and a hunch that it's been tenderly handled to get it's mark down.
Good morning SE,
I'm gonna have to pass today. I stretched it a bit yesterday by doing an 8 runner race, due to the "at a glance" extreme make-up of running styles in that race giving it what I thought (and you kindly confirmed) was an extraordinary/extreme "pace rating" - but as stated, it's a crude, manual (sometimes runner by runner) process that I use. So it's time consuming and I only really use that "will the pace collapse or not" approach in 5f/6f sprint handicaps for older horses with 10+ runners.
No strict rules but I don't like puzzles that I think are too difficult (for me) so unless (like yesterday) an extreme make-up of singular run-styles leaps off the page at me, I don't usually look at less than 10 runners, Nurseries, 3yo only H'caps, Fillies/Mares only races, 3yo+ Handicaps packed with lightly raced 3yos or anything else that feels like too much guesswork (imo). I do play those races in other ways - but not via a pre-race assessment of pace/early speed type of approach.
Everything today at 5f & 6f is a no-go for me, for one or another of the reasons stated above.
I love that you are looking at a middle distance race! - I just know that the "pace angle" doesn't work (for me and my crude methods) or only works in small fields where I sometimes suspect or hope for a false/slow run race! That particular race today (13:40) is ruined for me as a betting proposition by the SMP 3YO! -
Everything has a price, so I get your thinking. I never say never (or have unbreakable rules) but it just feels a bit "guessy" as to will she or won't see? - and that will shape both the prices and the outcome of the race - more so than any "angle" that I could come at it with.
If I don't have much to contribute (quite likely now that Nurseries etc have started), keep the thread going or start another one - it's a good/interesting topic imo. GL.
I'm gonna have to pass today. I stretched it a bit yesterday by doing an 8 runner race, due to the "at a glance" extreme make-up of running styles in that race giving it what I thought (and you kindly confirmed) was an extraordinary/extreme "pace rating" - but as stated, it's a crude, manual (sometimes runner by runner) process that I use. So it's time consuming and I only really use that "will the pace collapse or not" approach in 5f/6f sprint handicaps for older horses with 10+ runners.
No strict rules but I don't like puzzles that I think are too difficult (for me) so unless (like yesterday) an extreme make-up of singular run-styles leaps off the page at me, I don't usually look at less than 10 runners, Nurseries, 3yo only H'caps, Fillies/Mares only races, 3yo+ Handicaps packed with lightly raced 3yos or anything else that feels like too much guesswork (imo). I do play those races in other ways - but not via a pre-race assessment of pace/early speed type of approach.
Everything today at 5f & 6f is a no-go for me, for one or another of the reasons stated above.
I love that you are looking at a middle distance race! - I just know that the "pace angle" doesn't work (for me and my crude methods) or only works in small fields where I sometimes suspect or hope for a false/slow run race! That particular race today (13:40) is ruined for me as a betting proposition by the SMP 3YO! -
Everything has a price, so I get your thinking. I never say never (or have unbreakable rules) but it just feels a bit "guessy" as to will she or won't see? - and that will shape both the prices and the outcome of the race - more so than any "angle" that I could come at it with.
If I don't have much to contribute (quite likely now that Nurseries etc have started), keep the thread going or start another one - it's a good/interesting topic imo. GL.
Hi There TM.
For me it's just one ingredient in the study of a race. Of course we won't see examples like yesterday's every day and the extremes will always cause the greatest fascination for me.
I don't really mind what distance it is as long as there is plenty of information available for the runners then I'm just using the expected early pace with horses I know have coped well with it in the past at similar conditions.
I have Tim Easterby as a cyclical trainer with a big percentage of his runners, when they get too high in the hcp he knows how to get them back in the zone and plenty of his mediocre handicappers have a fair longevity.When the tactics or conditions make no sense to me I'm usually thinking it's part of his plan rather than him not having a clue lol.
I thought the price had gone earlier there's absolutely nothing in it now.
I will keep the thread going but I am going away for a few days tomorrow to visit my parents in cornwall.
For me it's just one ingredient in the study of a race. Of course we won't see examples like yesterday's every day and the extremes will always cause the greatest fascination for me.
I don't really mind what distance it is as long as there is plenty of information available for the runners then I'm just using the expected early pace with horses I know have coped well with it in the past at similar conditions.
I have Tim Easterby as a cyclical trainer with a big percentage of his runners, when they get too high in the hcp he knows how to get them back in the zone and plenty of his mediocre handicappers have a fair longevity.When the tactics or conditions make no sense to me I'm usually thinking it's part of his plan rather than him not having a clue lol.
I thought the price had gone earlier there's absolutely nothing in it now.
I will keep the thread going but I am going away for a few days tomorrow to visit my parents in cornwall.
striding.Always enjoy reading your posts. I'm actually off for a month or so in a few weeks time. The usually annual (but we've missed the last 2 years) pilgrimage to the States & Canadia to weedle our way back into the wills of various ancient relatives, the "outlaws" and to see a couple of my offspring!
Thanks Macintoshmatty and Billy Liddell (also well done yesterday Billy!)
Hello Madhatters! - I have tried and failed to inject some reality into the Boris Is Bottle (sic) thread. I only succeeded in making myself public enemy number one! To be fair, (although backing them under the right conditions would still be far more profitable), he is currently on a roll from laying them, that can only be described in poker parlance as "running like a god!" Good to hear from you.
I just found this is my "New Messages" - so probably just as well I am going away! 
wondak1d
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Jul 6, 03:18PM
Hello can you stop to give tips to people make small price for us soon. Ty
I am very flattered wondak1d! - but if I remember correctly, Saaheq was trading at 26/27 when I "tipped it" and it returned at BFSP of 34.76! So let me know if you want me to shorten up any others!
wondak1d
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Jul 6, 03:18PM
Hello can you stop to give tips to people make small price for us soon. Ty
I am very flattered wondak1d! - but if I remember correctly, Saaheq was trading at 26/27 when I "tipped it" and it returned at BFSP of 34.76! So let me know if you want me to shorten up any others!
HaHa TM
I see Rory (Jim Goldie smashed last time until a bit of a late ease in mkt) is due to run at Ayr in a 0-65 on Monday was also entered in a much better (0-85) race both entries were over 6f.
I think it's potentially chucked in a 0-65 but I'm not sure about the trip. From a pace perspective he's been getting outpaced early around Musselburgh 5f, last time with a high pace rating of 8.9. Can be a bit slow from the stalls but come the end of the race finishing to good effect just found 0-85 level too hot at that track.
IF he stayed 6f (I'd be worried on a galloping track he'd be too keen) would be a huge threat. I was hoping Jim would bang him out back at Hamilton over 5f with a slight drop in grade from the recent 0-85, 0-65 company at that track over 5f would take some stopping IMO.
There was a good thread I contributed on from a pace perspective from it's last run at Musselburgh with the OP just missing out with the other Goldie runner Primos Comet who is out again today (not looked at race).
I see Rory (Jim Goldie smashed last time until a bit of a late ease in mkt) is due to run at Ayr in a 0-65 on Monday was also entered in a much better (0-85) race both entries were over 6f.
I think it's potentially chucked in a 0-65 but I'm not sure about the trip. From a pace perspective he's been getting outpaced early around Musselburgh 5f, last time with a high pace rating of 8.9. Can be a bit slow from the stalls but come the end of the race finishing to good effect just found 0-85 level too hot at that track.
IF he stayed 6f (I'd be worried on a galloping track he'd be too keen) would be a huge threat. I was hoping Jim would bang him out back at Hamilton over 5f with a slight drop in grade from the recent 0-85, 0-65 company at that track over 5f would take some stopping IMO.
There was a good thread I contributed on from a pace perspective from it's last run at Musselburgh with the OP just missing out with the other Goldie runner Primos Comet who is out again today (not looked at race).
9.4 @ 8:43 am
with deductions since and no movement would have been around 8.0 still.
Be fascinating what the proper market makes of it when it fills in properly.
with deductions since and no movement would have been around 8.0 still.
Be fascinating what the proper market makes of it when it fills in properly.
Just noticed - even with a few small (but cumulative) reduction factors, you have moved the markets and will be hearing from wondak1d soon imo!
Thank god for price discipline, perhaps that trip is too short for Tim's now but excuses starting to build up.
I have posted on the Faye Mcmanoman thread about this race already. The lowest EPR to date (1.8) is today's 4:00 Chepstow.
A SLOW run race early you would think should favour Regulator but this trip is right on it's extreme IMO in terms of stamina limitation, if it's to win over this trip I would think it would be doing it off a slow early pace ridden to kick using it's mile speed and try and hang on.
Really couldn't confidently say what will make the early running but I am fascinated to see how Hollie Doyle and Faye Mcmanoman ride theirs which are usually held up.Fayes horse IMO has been given too much to do in some recent runs and has to be nearer the pace today and get an uninterrupted run to the line.
A SLOW run race early you would think should favour Regulator but this trip is right on it's extreme IMO in terms of stamina limitation, if it's to win over this trip I would think it would be doing it off a slow early pace ridden to kick using it's mile speed and try and hang on.
Really couldn't confidently say what will make the early running but I am fascinated to see how Hollie Doyle and Faye Mcmanoman ride theirs which are usually held up.Fayes horse IMO has been given too much to do in some recent runs and has to be nearer the pace today and get an uninterrupted run to the line.
I had 10 lays in the past 2 days, IR winners at 55 (WRATH OF HECTOR), 60(Enraged) and 130(Vandad). You still reckon I shouldn't green up?
Hi Striding - hope your break in the West country was all good.
I have got nothing in the 5f/6f races today (mostly the fields are too small for the way I like to do it). The 14:20 Hamilton was the only race over the distance (5f or 6f) with sufficient runners (10+) and a lot of exposed (older) runners - I spent a good while on it, before eventually filing it under "g", for grim!
I have got nothing in the 5f/6f races today (mostly the fields are too small for the way I like to do it). The 14:20 Hamilton was the only race over the distance (5f or 6f) with sufficient runners (10+) and a lot of exposed (older) runners - I spent a good while on it, before eventually filing it under "g", for grim!
For today's race I'd like to see Regulator the overall speed horse go close to winning getting first run off a slow early pace getting collared by Beryl Burton ridden nearer the pace than usual in the latter stages.
Pace was steady after Tio Mio briefly looked like it might go on and really stretch them early.
Regulator ran no race really folded tamely
Beryl Burton was in the right place to quicken later in race given closer order thana some recent efforts.
Regulator ran no race really folded tamely
Beryl Burton was in the right place to quicken later in race given closer order thana some recent efforts.
Beryl Burton was battered today 2.49 BFSP way shorter than I'd have thought.
have to say a good bit of placement by trainer with riding instructions spot on.
have to say a good bit of placement by trainer with riding instructions spot on.
what sites do people use for pace ratings,,etc or dobbing,,,i use patterform any more please
I am using Horseracebase, a fairly new feature has been added that gives the last 10 early running styles for each runner in a race.
This should not be confused with a horses general speed or turn of foot.
This should not be confused with a horses general speed or turn of foot.
Good morning striding! - Gotta pop out for a bit - but have you got a numeric value for the 19:17 Hamilton? TIA
Thank you! - does that align with my thoughts? - i.e. it's not high or low? 
ditto! Was hoping for higher - to justify a bet I have already placed. But kinda knew deep down it was a middling one! Thank you!
- to justify a bet I have already placed. But kinda knew deep down it was a middling one! Thank you!
Not really found anything of note today the 4:50 Nottingham has a rating of 1.8 which is right on the minimum so far.
But it's unreliable as there is not enough evidence in hcp company for some of the runners.
The horse I've mentioned on GEORGE'S thread Raydoun I'm hoping will struggle in the 6:47 Hamilton if my EPR of 3.0 holds up. Hamilton is a stiff track granted but off a slow early pace I can't see it having the gears over 5f.
But it's unreliable as there is not enough evidence in hcp company for some of the runners.
The horse I've mentioned on GEORGE'S thread Raydoun I'm hoping will struggle in the 6:47 Hamilton if my EPR of 3.0 holds up. Hamilton is a stiff track granted but off a slow early pace I can't see it having the gears over 5f.
Porter yes I'm not sure if I had other subscriptions I'd pay it. I'm lucky enough to be locked in with an enhanced lifetime account for only £10 a month that will never increase for being a long term customer.I don't pay for anything else.
I've got nothing again today (like yesterday, mostly the fields are just too small). The 19:17 Hamilton is the only race over the distance (5f or 6f) with sufficient runners (10 or more) and mostly comprising of the necessary (for me) older/more exposed horses.
I have been trying hard to justify the bet I have already had in that race (Mr Lupton) on some sort of basis of early speed/pace ratings (i.e. specifically for this thread) - but I can't do it! - The "pace rating" really just isn't quite high enough to make that the reason for the bet.
So nothing to do with this topic whatsoever really! - but I have backed the old fella (Mr Lupton) anyway - because he has sorted me out at a price a good few times over the years and he is dangerously well handicapped if he still maintains his enthusiasm for the game at 9 years old. Three of his ten lifetime victories have come with Jamie Spencer on board, which is really all you need to know about his running style! - but also he wins every season without fail and he quite often likes to do it on his third outing of the year. GL.
I have been trying hard to justify the bet I have already had in that race (Mr Lupton) on some sort of basis of early speed/pace ratings (i.e. specifically for this thread) - but I can't do it! - The "pace rating" really just isn't quite high enough to make that the reason for the bet.
So nothing to do with this topic whatsoever really! - but I have backed the old fella (Mr Lupton) anyway - because he has sorted me out at a price a good few times over the years and he is dangerously well handicapped if he still maintains his enthusiasm for the game at 9 years old. Three of his ten lifetime victories have come with Jamie Spencer on board, which is really all you need to know about his running style!
- but also he wins every season without fail and he quite often likes to do it on his third outing of the year. GL.
The "pace rating" really just isn't quite high enough to make that the reason for the bet.
I wouldn't worry about that TM, this is just part of normal form study most races will be inconclusive with the EPR rating.
But the more you know about a horse and the race it's in the better whatever your approach.This only really gets exciting at the extremes like your excellent winner that kicked this thread off.
I have to say I'm very encouraged early doors but it's no holy grail just a part of the toolkit.
I wouldn't worry about that TM, this is just part of normal form study most races will be inconclusive with the EPR rating.
But the more you know about a horse and the race it's in the better whatever your approach.This only really gets exciting at the extremes like your excellent winner that kicked this thread off.
I have to say I'm very encouraged early doors but it's no holy grail just a part of the toolkit.
Horses like Raydoun however I look at the race it's in to me it just looks like it's really up against it. My pace rating has to be wrong or it has to show something completely different tonight to figure.
Of course it's horse racing and results can always surprise.
My interest today is to see whether it's drifting price (4.5 when posted on GEORGE'S thread earlier vying for 2nd fav) continues and whether the race goes to plan with a moderate early then kick second half.
Rhythm (who I thought was suited by today's likely EPR/conditions)was 12.0 when posting on GEORGE's thread and is now the same price as Raydoun!
Of course it's horse racing and results can always surprise.
My interest today is to see whether it's drifting price (4.5 when posted on GEORGE'S thread earlier vying for 2nd fav) continues and whether the race goes to plan with a moderate early then kick second half.
Rhythm (who I thought was suited by today's likely EPR/conditions)was 12.0 when posting on GEORGE's thread and is now the same price as Raydoun!
Obviously I take fully on board the markets are even more pants these days at this stage in their cycle!
I wouldn't worry about that TM, this is just part of normal form study most races will be inconclusive with the EPR rating.
Agree - I just really thrive on the races where I make the rating very high (likely they will go too fast, too soon)- but there aren't enough of just those on their own (the way I do it) to make for a lively thread.
Agree that the extremes are best - so I might have to start looking at "low ratings" rather than just my preference for high - and maybe be a bit more flexible with my race type (distance & field size). But let me know when you think you have a good high one!
Agree - I just really thrive on the races where I make the rating very high (likely they will go too fast, too soon)- but there aren't enough of just those on their own (the way I do it) to make for a lively thread.
Agree that the extremes are best - so I might have to start looking at "low ratings" rather than just my preference for high - and maybe be a bit more flexible with my race type (distance & field size). But let me know when you think you have a good high one!
Funny enough at the moment I'm happy with smaller fields but the rating as calculated at present possibly gets too diluted in bigger fields.
You don't need tons of early pace horses for a strong pace in a big field but because i'm averaging out a rating for the number of runners it's not as effective for larger fields.
At present I think for larger fields a rating is being undercooked somewhat only more experience will back this notion up.
You don't need tons of early pace horses for a strong pace in a big field but because i'm averaging out a rating for the number of runners it's not as effective for larger fields.
At present I think for larger fields a rating is being undercooked somewhat only more experience will back this notion up.
So many variables! - Once I get into the realms of 4 places (normal terms), 16+ runners, I don't think my way of doing it works so well, so I'm probably approaching the race from a different "angle" than this one anyway!
I'm thinking about the problem of larger fields.
If Saheq's race had been 14 runners instead of 8 and these extra 6 runners added little EP to the mix, the pace rating would have been diluted right down but in reality the race early pace would very likely still be very strong.
If Saheq's race had been 14 runners instead of 8 and these extra 6 runners added little EP to the mix, the pace rating would have been diluted right down but in reality the race early pace would very likely still be very strong.
Yes - big fields create a problem for me (the way that I do it). As per my opening post, it's very hard (for me) to assign a numeric value/rating (that I trust is accurate as a comparator) unless the make-up of the race is quite specific.
I'm not saying I'm fussy - but for this approach (the way I do it), in a nutshell, I need preferably a Handicap over 5f or 6f furlongs, not too many runners, not too few runners, not 2yo's only (nurseries), not 3yo's only, not 3yo+ with lots of unexposed 3yo's. As I said - not fussy!
I'm not saying I'm fussy - but for this approach (the way I do it), in a nutshell, I need preferably a Handicap over 5f or 6f furlongs, not too many runners, not too few runners, not 2yo's only (nurseries), not 3yo's only, not 3yo+ with lots of unexposed 3yo's. As I said - not fussy!
I've only just looked at Ponty
the 7:24 a 4yo+ race plenty of evidence on runners.
1 runner makes nearly the entirety of the score , an EPR of 2.7.
Ventura Rascal has made the running 8 times and been mid div twice in last 10 outings
The only other to make running in it's last 10 races is Bearaway.
If you took Ventura Rascal out of the race you'd have an EPR of just 0.9.
the 7:24 a 4yo+ race plenty of evidence on runners.
1 runner makes nearly the entirety of the score , an EPR of 2.7.
Ventura Rascal has made the running 8 times and been mid div twice in last 10 outings
The only other to make running in it's last 10 races is Bearaway.
If you took Ventura Rascal out of the race you'd have an EPR of just 0.9.
A strange race for me a claiming hcp class 2, Kevin Ryan's horse Ventura Rascal went very close in a similar race last September over CD.
Most of the EPR score comprises of front runners and prominent horses so a low score doesn't just mean there's a lack of front runners.
You couldn't really get a better set up for a front runner.
You couldn't really get a better set up for a front runner.
TM
I see Rory is in another 6f 3yo+ race at Ayr on monday
Right grade of race but wrong conditions for me especially with potentially unexposed 3yo's to consider too.
I think he could possibly even win at Musselburgh again in 0-65 company at 5f, stronger races just catch him out a bit and they get away a bit too much early on as in it's last run there which was very good in 0-85 company, this was a 3yo+ race but the pair were unfancied.
But after winning at Hamilton where there is longer to get organised a 0-65 there looks rife for the taking.
.
I just don't get the placement of this horse but I often struggle with Jim as a trainer.
I see Rory is in another 6f 3yo+ race at Ayr on monday
Right grade of race but wrong conditions for me especially with potentially unexposed 3yo's to consider too.
I think he could possibly even win at Musselburgh again in 0-65 company at 5f, stronger races just catch him out a bit and they get away a bit too much early on as in it's last run there which was very good in 0-85 company, this was a 3yo+ race but the pair were unfancied.
But after winning at Hamilton where there is longer to get organised a 0-65 there looks rife for the taking.
.
I just don't get the placement of this horse but I often struggle with Jim as a trainer.
The way it's going I can see it eventually getting raised in class again and being smashed up to win a 0-75 sort of race when given it's proper (IMHO) conditions again.
5.5 furlong horse imo
Will watch with interest if he does race over the 6f again on Monday.
Will watch with interest if he does race over the 6f again on Monday.
Liberator of the oppressed thread a few pages back for it's last musselburgh run a good read.
Raydoun had no gears for that challenge tonight pleasing.
Rhythm was too far back, the first 3 stayed in the first 3 all race.
Rhythm was too far back, the first 3 stayed in the first 3 all race.
Raydoun (18:47 Hamilton) - out of the three - WD striding
Timeform had it top rated I couldn't have it in that race at conditions.
The trouble is TM the time I would have wanted to place lay it there's no money in the market. 
No good after it's drifted, that's not for me.
But hopefully we can identify some in the win market.
No good after it's drifted, that's not for me.
But hopefully we can identify some in the win market.
True - early place markets are utterly dire - but it shortened up a good bit after drifting all day.
I don't know about place market later mate but it went off around 8.6 after a last minute or so drift.
When do you look to do your place bets.
For me the market fills around t-3?
For me the market fills around t-3?
You were right that it shortened again late before the last drift I think it was around 6.2 in win mkt a few mins before the race.
When do you look to do your place bets.
It's variable - but obviously late is sometimes/often the only option really!
It's variable - but obviously late is sometimes/often the only option really!
Not the sort of race I'm interested in I must admit a claiming hcp but I am intrigued to see how long Ventura Rascal can lead them for.
Watching it too.
Mr Lupton (19:17 Hamilton) was utterly friendless (apart from me!
) and ran accordingly.
Mr Lupton (19:17 Hamilton) was utterly friendless (apart from me!
) and ran accordingly.
theres fook all pace on running styles lol.
racing tv two of them saying the race is full of pace.
crystal ball stuff.
racing tv two of them saying the race is full of pace.
crystal ball stuff.
I dunno - It's a selling hcap ffs - I just followed you in on Ventura Rascal and then got out (a bit too soon!).
I don't know exactly who was saying the race is full of pace but they need stepping down.
stealing a living working on a racing channel.
stealing a living working on a racing channel.
Very well done - would never have looked at that race without your posts. Thanks.
stridingedge15 Jul 22 13:08Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 59,696 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
I've only just looked at Ponty
the 7:24 a 4yo+ race plenty of evidence on runners.
1 runner makes nearly the entirety of the score , an EPR of 2.7.
Ventura Rascal has made the running 8 times and been mid div twice in last 10 outings
The only other to make running in it's last 10 races is Bearaway.
If you took Ventura Rascal out of the race you'd have an EPR of just 0.9
I still cannot believe what I've just watched.
I've only just looked at Ponty
the 7:24 a 4yo+ race plenty of evidence on runners.
1 runner makes nearly the entirety of the score , an EPR of 2.7.
Ventura Rascal has made the running 8 times and been mid div twice in last 10 outings
The only other to make running in it's last 10 races is Bearaway.
If you took Ventura Rascal out of the race you'd have an EPR of just 0.9
I still cannot believe what I've just watched.
Delayed action on the forum is making a (real time) conversation impossible.
You totally nailed that race. VWD.
You totally nailed that race. VWD.
I'm glad you made a bit TM.
I actually thought I was having a breakdown from the pre race analysis of racingtv there.
I actually thought I was having a breakdown from the pre race analysis of racingtv there.
Same - well done - catch you tomorrow - but might not be about for the entirety. GL.
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