Cheers James and Virgin

I've got Isle Of Wolves and John Betjeman as qualifiers at Fontwell tomorrow. The former's Flat form would suggest he needs better ground and he was tailed off over C/D behind Goshen on soft on his hurdles debut, while stamina is the obvious concern for the latter on this switch of code.
So with the French import put in at 1-4 early doors, no selection

The next juvenile hurdle is the opener at Warwick on Thursday.

Well done with El Picador, sageform.

Oh well, the Law of Sod came into force and they both placed, albeit only one of them would have had the fav not fallen at the last.

It was probably was a weak enough contest outside of the fav, but JB seemed to stay the trip fine, while Isle Of Wolves didn't shape too badly, not knocked about up the straight.

The Warwick race tomorrow looks potentially very hot. those that have run have not shown much so the winner will probably come from a newcomer. The one possible exception is Hurricane Hero who ran poorly over hurdles but was rated 77 on the flat.
The best flat performer was Kangaroo Valley who has been bought from Joseph O'Brien by owners who have been big spenders lately. The doubt is whether it is fast enough as it raced over 14 furlongs. Palladium is likely to start fav but only because it is Henderson and Rowland Ward appeals more as the likely winner. JP has yet another French import, Sainte Doctor that might be good but only won at a very small French track.

Ground query regarding Rowland Ward?
They pulled him out when he was due to go at Ludlow because of the ground.

No shortage of qualifiers as I have 7 in today's race: Rowland Ward, Palladium, Kangaroo Valley, Twpsyn, Derry Boy, Tronada and Hurricane Hero.

The second highest rated of them off the level is Rowland Ward (OR 83). He won a 12f handicap at  Doncaster back in April, and that form worked out fairly well with the runner-up Beechwood Jude subsequently winning twice, the third horse Sapa Inca improving subsequently to win at Listed level, and the 4th horse was today's rival Palladium, who he gave 2lb and a 5l beating to. Rowland Ward ran just three more times and on the face of it didn't progress, although he did actually twice record higher RPRs in defeat, including when only seventh of 11 over 12f at Thirsk when wearing first time blinkers, on his final start for Ralph Beckett.

Soft ground is an unknown for Rowland Ward, his win came on officially good ground at Doncaster on a day when the times were on the slow side, but a strong wind half against probably had an impact on the clock. He did finish runner-up on good to soft on his 2YO debut at Sandown to none other than Too Darn Hot, albeit beaten an easy 7l. He was withdrawn from a juvenile hurdle at Ludlow last month when the soft ground was deemed unsuitable.

Palladium has joined Nicky Henderson from Martyn Meade. He would appear up against it with Rowland Ward given the aforementioned Doncaster form, and being officially rated 10lb inferior to that rival, however, he did run some good races in defeat after, when bumping into sharp improvers Moon King and Land Of Oz.

Interestingly, his new trainer did have him entered at the 5-day stage for the class 2 Introductory Hurdle at Sandown last week, perhaps an indication he has been working well at home, but he would have had to face Goshen there.

Kangaroo Valley, formerly trained by Aidan O'Brien,  is the highest rated of these on the Flat with an OR of 86 (down from 91), though whether he's worth that mark is open to question, given he was initially rated 69 after three maiden runs, before being raised a whopping 22lb for winning a 12.5f Tipperary maiden on yielding ground by 8 lengths. The horse he beat into second, Yonkers (rated 80), had previously finished 14 lengths behind the winner on his sole handicap start (when rated 83) , and hasn't run again since being beaten by Kangaroo Valley.

Kangaroo Valley failed to justify the sharp hike in the ratings in two handicap runs and his mark has been dropped 5lb, but the ground was good to firm both times and it could be he needs softer ground to be seen to best effect.

My other four qualifiers are all rated in the 60s on the Flat and would appear up against it, perhaps Twpsyn has the best credentials of them for this switch of code, being a 12f winner on the level and a half-brother to a hurdles winner, though soft ground is an unknown for him.

Of the others, Sainte Doctor is another JP McManus French import. She shouldn't fail for stamina having won a 2 mile race on the Flat.
I Like Him has been handed an OR of 130 after eight starts in France, and debuts here for Ali Stronge.
Hydroplane won three handicaps for Sir Mark Prescott this year and is currently rated 78. He makes his debut today for Ian Williams.

I've not decided on a selection yet, with the more obvious ones well found in the market, and the ones rated in the 60s on the Flat, perhaps a bit too much on the speculative side, though Tronada is shorter than I expected her to be, perhaps on stable reputation?

Just to add that if Ali Stronge wins a race with I Like Him off 130, I'll nominate her for trainer of the year!

I don't know the answer to this question so would be much obliged if someone could help!

Since Joseph O'Brien started training, which would be the best future hurdler to have left Aidan and not gone to Joseph, and / or be owned by JP McManus?

I'm just curious, cuz I kinda wondered, given his fairly high Flat rating, why isn't Kangaroo Valley now being trained / owned by Joseph / JP...and that's just me rightly or wrongly presuming they'd have first call!

For example, like the ill-fated Sir Erec.

I would guess the plan is for him to take over from his dad one day, sageform

Missing info from me little write up, Palladium & Kangaroo Valley both gelded ahead of their hurdle / stable debuts.

Price tags off the Flat:
Rowland Ward: 75,000 gns
Hydroplane: 65,000 gns

Anyone know what they paid for Kangaroo valley?

KV cost MV Magnier 200k as a yearling. He was offered at the horses in training in Oct 2018 and again in Oct 2019 but not sold. Assume it was a private sale after that. The Vac pouch company have been spending lately but I would worry about connections for this horse. Henry Oliver????
As Aiden shows no sign of retiring I imagine that Joseph has a limited number of boxes and would prioritise flat.

Cheers sageform, interesting that he went unsold this year. Maybe he didn't meet a reserve?

Joseph takes in 50-odd rated horses like Marylebone that they've picked up for peanuts, so presume he must have plenty of space!?

Apparently Donnacha is going to have a much smaller string and concentrate solely on the Flat.

I've decided to have a second selection, this time on a more speculative one

Twpsyn, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.20 Warwick

Twpsyn has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he comes here fit off the Flat having won easily over 12f at Southwell last month, and while his sole turf success to date came only in a 3 runner affair in Guernsey, he might have scored at Windsor over 11.5f at Windsor in July, but for unseating his rider 2f out when seemingly travelling the best.

The ground is an unknown, but he should be fine stamina-wise, and while he disappointed back at Southwell on his latest start, hopefully with the visor being kept on, he's not running today just for the experience.

Good luck with that George. I am staying with Rowland Ward but it is a minimum bet race with hopefully some good ones to follow next time out.

Stuarts other one at big odds

Fillies allowance and recent experience in bumpers paid off. Right trainer, wrong horse. I thought that Rowland Ward ran OK considering he was a long way back at halfway. Making ground in that mud is impossible.

I thought it had travelled fine on the ground GEORGE tbh as Sage alluded to just given a quiet run from the back and very difficult to make up to much ground.

I wouldn't be surprised if the fall has not dented it's confidence to see much more to come there.

Post race Stuart basically saying you don't want to make up too much ground there today but he wanted to get Rowland ward settled. His other runner obviously ridden completely different to suit conditions.

Easy to say after a 55 winner but have mentioned on here previously he is under rated in these races

Thankfully these are not my races George as intent is often questionable and the ?? are often endless, I think your approach is certainly as good as any for such races.

55.0 shots for you are like even money punts for others, real shorties.

Elysian flame?

Grade 2, 2.45 Doncaster

My only qualifier in the Grade 2 at Doncaster is Robeam, who won comfortably on his hurdles and stable debut at Sedgefield when well backed, in what probably wasn't the strongest of races, and I picked him last time at Newcastle on heavy ground under a penalty when he was up against Navajo Pass (who was worn down only close home under his penalty, and also runs here) and some other much higher-rated recruits off the Flat, and he wasn't good enough.
So unless the better ground makes a difference, it's hard to see where the improvement is going to come from, and not surprisingly he's been put in as the outsider of the six runners.

The intriguing one is French import Tombee Du Ciel, who's being pitched into a Grade 2 on his debut for Nicky Henderson, with James Reveley over to ride him, and no surprise that he has been put in the short-priced favourite.

Lord Lamington was the beneficiary at Market Rasen when the heavily backed Zoffee made one mistake too many, but he travelled well through the race despite the doubt about soft ground based on his Flat form, and who knows, maybe he'd have won whatever.

No selection

The bad news is I probably will be posting selections for the other two 3YO races