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By:

stridingedge When: 27 Dec 19 12:55

A typical quiet one last time out for such a contest when the stablemate won with a positive ride.

By:

madhatters When: 27 Dec 19 12:56

Let one go there GB

By:

GEORGE.B When: 27 Dec 19 13:01

If my only qualifier wins at 9-1 and I didn't pick it, it's a balls up.

He wasn't that big earlier, but I made a call and got it wrong.

The stablemate who won the race at Warwick, runs in the Grade 1 at Chepstow, currently 25-1.

By:

madhatters When: 27 Dec 19 13:18

You can afford to let one off the line now and then with your record

By:

GEORGE.B When: 27 Dec 19 13:25

When I saw the 9-1 flash up Mad', it was one of these moments

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By:

stridingedge When: 27 Dec 19 13:30

I didn't think you got out of bed for less than 50.0 George.

By:

chavman When: 27 Dec 19 13:34

no,he doesnt get out of bed before 5 o clock

By:

GEORGE.B When: 27 Dec 19 13:45

Not my day really, wtf on the run in at Wetherby?

By:

GEORGE.B When: 27 Dec 19 14:19

Another break even day, with Theatre of War's placing covering the day's 5 pts stake.

Cawthorne Lad looked like he was held between the last two flights, but was running on and closing after the last when having switch to all over the shop. We'll never know if it was the difference between winning and losing.

There's a 17 runner juvenile hurdle to look forward to at Newbury tomorrow

Running P/L: +188.6

By:

GEORGE.B When: 27 Dec 19 18:50

Correction, there's a 3YO and upwards "Introductory" hurdle at Newbury tomorrow, for which I have no qualifiers.
The next all 3YO hurdle is for fillies at Doncaster on Sunday.

By:

intheknow When: 27 Dec 19 19:26

Yes, Cawthorne might be considered a bit unlucky and sure proved me wrong with doubts about its stamina

By:

sageform When: 27 Dec 19 19:27

Sorry for aftertiming but as Striding said, I was keen on Rowland Ward and had a small bet at 9/1. I was away for 2 days so limited access to the internet but 3yo's in Aspire Tower yesterday and RW and Allmankind today saved me from a losing 2 days. I haven't seen any live racing apart from Slate House (won) and the KG (lost) so no idea how well the 3yos won until I have time to watch replays.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 08:20

Well done sageform

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 08:30

Red Archangel, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.00 Doncaster
Cuban Sun, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1.00 Doncaster

I have two qualifiers, Red Archangel and Cuban Sun.

Red Archangel is only rated 55 on the Flat, but was set a difficult task on her hurdling debut when pitched into Listed company at Aintree earlier this month, when having chased the leaders for a fair way, she weakened quickly in the home straight. She's in calmer waters here and entitled to improve for that initial experience, which came after a near four month break, so hopefully will be more competitive today at the business end.

Cuban Sun attained a peak official rating of 75 on the Flat after beating 13 rivals over 10f on good to soft at Nottingham (inner track) back in April, but ran to form only once in six subsequent starts, when finishing second of six over 10f on soft ground back at Nottingham on the outer track in August. It's possible the step up to twelve furlongs might have partially been to blame for a couple of those defeats (weakened having led / raced prominently), so stamina is a query on this switch of codes.

Cuban Sun has left James Given and joined Kelly Morgan, who I don't know much about, but 11 winners from 52 runners NH / Flat combined so far in the UK sounds a decent strike rate to be going on with!

By:

sageform When: 29 Dec 19 08:35

Can't get enthused about a fillies race at Doncaster so I will have to study Taunton once the entries are confirmed.

By:

TheAnorak When: 29 Dec 19 10:41

George,

Kelly Morgan is the second daughter of ex trainer Kevin Morgan to take out a licence - her sister is Laura Morgan, who trains at the same yard as her father and Laura was previously travelling head girl for Jonjo O'Neill.

Kelly seems to be operating as a private trainer for Johnny Weatherby - no wonder their admin charges are so high if us owners have to support his growing string of nags! She trained a runner-up in the Cheltenham Foxhunters, Top Wood, a cheap purchase from Ascot sales before taking ot a full licence.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 11:32

Anorak, thanks for the info on the trainer's background, she appears to have made a bright start to her training career.

There seems to be a bit of support around for Cuban Sun, obviously I'm hoping it turns out to be well placed!
My other pick has been drifting in the betting all morning.

By:

Lucky Luciano When: 29 Dec 19 13:10

Tough luck there George, got the EW money but feels like you deserved much better

By:

TheAnorak When: 29 Dec 19 13:10

Well done George - the places keep the thread ticking over. Miss Morgan might be a name to remember if she can produce results with horses as different as elderly staying chasers and juvenile filly hurdlers.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 13:18

Cheers.

Lucky, no complaints really, she seemed to get a soft enough time close to the lead, and didn't fail for stamina given how she rallied for second.
Both traded short in the run, Cuban Sun at odds-on, probably thanks to the dodgy camera angle at the last which excluded the eventual winner?
Red Archangel moved upsides looking a real threat, but either hung fire or didn't stay or both.

Thanks Anorak, I'll keep an eye on her runners.

By:

sageform When: 29 Dec 19 13:20

Bad luck George, it is looking like a fall first time out is the key to finding 3yo winners.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 13:39

sageform, not sure about that, but it will probably help the price next time.

There's a juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Taunton tomorrow, and I also have a qualifier in the Listed fillies and mares hurdle.

Running P/L: 190.6

By:

sageform When: 29 Dec 19 13:58

Rowland Ward and Fantastic ms Fox.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 14:00

what about the ones that didn't win next time after falling on debut?

By:

TheAnorak When: 29 Dec 19 14:03

Falling first time out in a juvenile hurdle didn't produce a next time out win for Desert Orchid, but I suppose he made up for that in the long run!

By:

sageform When: 29 Dec 19 14:03

Plenty of those I'm sure. It does mean experience gained without having to fight out a finish so long as it is not a bad fall.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 29 Dec 19 14:03

I'm sure striding won't mind checking the actual p/l, saying going back 5 seasons, for juveniles winning second time out over hurdles after falling on their debuts.

You may be proven right, sageform.

By:

sageform When: 29 Dec 19 14:12

Zoffee looks very hard to beat at Taunton. 91 on the flat and 110 over hurdles is a long way clear of the rest unless the French imports are any good.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 30 Dec 19 10:14

I've got two qualifiers in the juvenile hurdle, Zoffee and Hurricane Hero. Zoffee not surprisingly is odds-on given his Flat rating and how his hurdling debut at Market Rasen has worked out. Hurricane Hero is my kind of price at 80-1, but makes no appeal at this stage.

Midnights' Gift, 1pt win @ 10-1, 2.25 Taunton

Midnights Gift looks up against on ratings and being penalised 5lb, taking on her elders for the first time in this Listed contest, particularly as the ground may be softer than ideal. She has doubled in price since last night, so I'm going to risk a point at the prices, given her limitations have yet to be exposed.

By:

sageform When: 30 Dec 19 12:51

French form trumps me again. King and Hobbs both good with 3yos so that could be decent form to follow.

By:

madhatters When: 30 Dec 19 14:33

Good run GB
Cruised up nicely
Winner looks good

By:

GEORGE.B When: 30 Dec 19 15:09

Unlucky, sageform.

Ran well, Mad, and suppose it was a bit disappointing she didn't win given the race went her way with them probably cutting each others throats up front, but the winner, who pulled hard on the way to post and took a tug in the race itself (good ride to get her covered up imo), found loads up the straight and was helped further by MG's mistake at the last.

By:

sageform When: 30 Dec 19 15:15

Onwards to Musselburgh on Wednesday. El Picador did me a favour last time so that will do if it runs.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 30 Dec 19 17:06

good luck, sageform.

By:

GEORGE.B When: 30 Dec 19 17:22

There is a 20 runner 3YO hurdle at Punchestown tomorrow but I don't have any qualifiers, which means, as stated in the opening post that the thread would end on December 31st, that is it.

P/L at the early prices / BOG: +189.6

P/L at Betfair SP after deduction of 2% commission: +207.59

Geyser's win at Sedgefield was the one that catapulted the thread towards a 200 pt profit, and without it the figures would have looked pretty ordinary!

Date	Horse	Early Odds / BOG	Stake	finish pos	P/L	IR Low / High	BSP Profit - 2% Comm
26-Oct	Guinevere	17	1	0	-1	4.4	-1
26-Oct	Early Strike	26	1 EW	0	-2		-2
27-Oct	Twenty Years On	6.5	1	2	-1	3.9	-1
30-Oct	Whistler Bowl	8	1	0	-1	4	-1
30-Oct	Two Blondes	10	1	2	-1	1.7	-1
01-Nov	Half Bolly	34	1 EW	0	-2		-2
06-Nov	Three Castles	11	1	F	-1	1.39	-1
07-Nov	Geyser	151	1 EW	1	180	270	218.52
07-Nov	Neileta	101	1 EW	0	-2		-2
08-Nov	Langholm	8.5	1	0	-1		-1
11-Nov	Catch The Cuban	6.5	1	1	5.5	9.6	4.41
12-Nov	Guinevere	29	1 EW	3	4.6		5.09
14-Nov	Say The Word	23	1 EW	0	-2	4.2	-2
16-Nov	Allmankind	6.5	1	1	5.5	10	2.78
17-Nov	Manucci	10	1	2	-1		-1
17-Nov	Isle Of Wolves	23	1	0	-1		-1
22-Nov	Neileta	51	1 EW	0	-2		-2
22-Nov	Dragons Will rise	67	1EW	0	-2		-2
26-Nov	Morph	34	1 EW	0	-2		-2
26-Nov	Majority Share	31	1 EW	0	-2		-2
27-Nov	Bullion Boss	11	1	0	-1		-1
27-Nov	You Little Beauty	201	1 EW	0	-2		-2
30-Nov	Robeam	5	1	0	-1		-1
01-Dec	Guinevere	81	1 EW	0	-2		-2
01-Dec	Hammersmith	41	1 EW	0	-2		-2
05-Dec	Glorious Dane	21	1 EW	0	-2		-2
08-Dec	Hazran	26	1 EW	0	-2		-2
08-Dec	Clemencia	34	1 EW	1	39.6	12	16.82
09-Dec	Kangaroo Valley	9	1	0	-1		-1
09-Dec	Twpsyn	67	1 EW	0	-2		-2
14-Dec	Group Stage	8.5	1	0	-1		-1
14-Dec	Wee Jim	51	1 EW	0	-2		-2
14-Dec	Majority Share	26	1 EW	0	-2		-2
17-Dec	Bullion Boss	10	1	0	-1		-1
17-Dec	Cawthorne Lad	29	1	2	-1		-1
18-Dec	John Betjeman	6.5	1	3	-1	3.05	-1
26-Dec	Wolf Prince	13	1 EW	2	1.4	3.85	0.74
26-Dec	Clemencia	9	1	0	-1	4.5	-1
27-Dec	Pepperoni Pete	26	1 EW	0	-2	3	-2
27-Dec	Theatre of War	21	1 EW	2	3	1.34	11.52
27-Dec	Cawthorne Lad	5	1	3	-1		-1
29-Dec	Cuban Sun	26	1 EW	2	4	2.1	1.71
29-Dec	Red Archangel	21	1 EW	0	-2		-2
30-Dec	Midnights Gift	11	1	2	-1	2.02	-1
					189.6		207.59

By:

sageform When: 30 Dec 19 18:31

Your thread encouraged a few of us to look harder at the 3yo hurdles and it has been a good exercise. I have always found a few winners with Heighlin winning the Triumph at 50/1 the highlight closely followed by another Elsworth star in Oh So Risky. That was when most good 3yos were from English or Irish yards and had good flat form. The increasing number of French and junior bumper horses have replaced the flat ones that end up on the AW or in Dubai but are much harder to rate.

By:

Virgin When: 30 Dec 19 18:40

Well Done George

Another thread in profit

By:

stewarty b When: 30 Dec 19 19:29

WD GEORGE on another successful venture. I look forward to your next unlucky 15 thread where I will stick my beak in perhaps twice a week.

Usual stakes....£1 lucky 15 and a £2.50p EW acca. When does it begin GEORGE or have you yet to decide?

Anyways it's good to take the p1ss out of chavbow....a king without a crown.

Or should that read clown?

By:

chavman When: 30 Dec 19 19:38

george is a bit more highbrow these days..he fraternizes with pottsy these days.

you should start a thread stewy

By:

Macintoshmatty When: 30 Dec 19 20:21

Well done George, no end to your talents