|
By:
George,
You may already know, but Tremwedge, declared for the Cheltenham race, changed hands for £80k at the Cheltenham sale this evening. New trainer is Alan King. Might still run but it seems unlikely. |
|
By:
Cheers, Anorak. Obviously King already has Group Stage declared to run, so it would be a surprise if they both are allowed to take their chance.
|
|
By:
Group Stage, 1pt win @ 15-2, 12.10 Cheltenham
I've just the one qualifier at Cheltenham and it's Group Stage. He's only rated 68 on the Flat, though his form did include finishing second to a subsequent Listed winner. He took time to get on top when winning making a winning debut over hurdles at Ludlow, but was strong at the finish, and the form is working out OK, with the runner-up since finishing placed in the recent Aintree Listed fillies' race, and the third horse winning the other day at Fontwell. This is obviously a lot tougher and he's carrying 4lb penalty too, but he appeals as the sort his yard could do well with in this sphere. Wee Jim, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 12.30 Fairhouse Majority Share, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 12.30 Fairyhouse I have three qualifiers in the opener at Fairyhouse: Wolf Prince, Wee Jim and Majority Share It takes a big leap of faith to support Wee Jim, who was initially rated 92 at the end of his 2YO season under the care of Jason Ward, but he's been disappointing this year in Ireland for his current yard and his mark has fallen to 70. He's a qualifier and he's a big price, so I'll take a chance in the hope the switch of code can bring out the latent talent that he possesses. Wolf Prince and Majority Share both ran in the race won by the impressive Aspire Tower at Punchestown last month when I wrote beforehand : Wolf Prince, who is currently rated 77, has returned from a 10 month absence this year to run two good races in defeat from three efforts for Amy Murphy, and has now joined Gavin Cromwell. Soft ground and stamina are unlikely to be an issue, and he looks an interesting recruit for his respected stable, with Conor McNamara taking 7lb off. However, he has been weak in the betting and his new stable also run the seemingly more fancied Yafordadoe, who makes his hurdling debut on the back of two 7f wins and is now rated 78 on the level. Majority Share ran well from the front in a maiden race at Clonmel back in April, and although she just failed to hang on for a place, the time was the quickest of six races at the trip on the day, and the winner Encapsulation subsequently went onto Listed success. I suppose therefore it's disappointing she's been well held in three handicaps since off relatively low marks (though might have needed her latest run at Dundalk after a few weeks break). Her hurdling debut at Gowran over 7 weeks ago came in a race that might not have been the strongest because even though she finished second in a field of sixteen starters, she was beaten 33 lengths and was left second only after an unseat at the second last. However, while it's easy pick holes in the form as the easy winner Leahman has been beaten twice since (though ran respectably under a penalty on his latest start), it could be he needs good ground to be seen to best effect which he hasn't had since. Majority Share looks up against it on Flat ratings and could do with hurdling better, but easier ground may help this daughter of Born To Sea, and it wouldn't totally surprise if she outruns her odds. Wolf Prince ran well to finish 3rd, albeit no match for the winner, but Majority Share didn't get very far, racing freely and soon pulled up with a slipped saddle. I'll give another chance to Majority Share at the prices, in the hope she's more relaxed this time. |
|
By:
* Group Stage, 1pt win @ 8-1
|
|
By:
You’re on a roll there George,why not make it 20s
|
|
By:
8-1 at the time of posting chav with 2 major firms, but if you want to have a barstewards enquiry about it and knock me back to 15-2, I'm not going to protest too much for the sake of half a point!
Hopefully he'll drift anyway and I'll claim the BOG price! |
|
By:
I also chose Group Stage before reading your thread George so here's hoping.
|
|
By:
Good luck to us both, sageform
Unlike Spittin's that just ran at Donny, the market vibes for this Elysian Flame are positive |
|
By:
Short of speed. Elysian Flame very promising for next time.
|
|
By:
A poor day. Group Stage ran OK, losing third place late on. Majority Share seemed to have an easy enough time on the front end but didn't stay on the heavy ground..
The next juvenile hurdle is at Catterick on Tuesday. Running P/L: +191.2 |
|
By:
Bullion Boss, 1pt win @ 9-1, 12.55 Catterick
Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 25-1, 12.55 Catterick I have 5 qualifiers: Bullion Boss, Cawthorne Lad, Fume, Glorious Dane and Sea Art. Bullion Boss disappointed on his stable and hurdle debut at Musselburgh when well backed, but I took a chance on him last time at Wetherby and he shaped a lot better, not knocked about from the home turn but still keeping on well enough for 4th, finishing not far behind the second placed horse Artistic Language, who reopposes today and is the current favourite, with My Strong Man, who also runs here, fifth. A 5lb claimer takes over in the saddle and he wants this for a mark, so it will be interesting to see which way he goes in the betting. Glorious Dane was another selected on this thread last time out when he finished a well held 5th at Market Rasen; that was behind two relatively highly rated recruits off the Flat, one of which (Lord Lamington) finished a good second in the Grade 2 at Doncaster on Staurday. This is easier and of those with hurdling experience he comes out top on the ratings, but another who wants this for a mark, and as he doesn't look the biggest, not sure how much scope he has for this game. Sea Art has a bit to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but he looks an interesting recruit for the John Quinn yard, having signed off for William Knight with a 13f win round Bath on good to soft. He clearly stayed well on the Flat and one wonders if he may need a stiffer test over hurdles, and it will be interesting to gauge market expectations. Fume is by Frankel but out of a Camacho mare and he had been kept mainly to 6/7f on the Flat, until his latest start 73 days ago when returning from a break and upped markedly in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton, but after pulling hard he failed to see the trip out, so stamina is a query now hurdling. He's currently rated 65 on the Flat, but had a peak rating of 75, and while he's been kept away from soft ground thus far, he does have soft ground influences in his pedigree. Cawthorne Lad has plenty to find on Flat ratings and is another with stamina to prove given his win came over 7f and he has yet to race beyond a mile on the Flat. My notebook run for him came over a mile on soft ground at Thirsk as a 2YO, when he wasn't helped by being hampered 2f out and then lugging to his left, but I thought he kept on quite well, and the dam's side of his pedigree is encouraging for staying longer trips. Summary Sea Art looks an interesting contender, but at the prices I'll take a couple of the others against the field. Bullion Boss has nearly 5 lengths to make up on Artistic Language on their Wetherby run from last time, and given Bullion Boss wasn't given a hard ride perhaps he'll be one for handicaps in due course, but a chance is taken at the odds. Cawthorne Lad has a good bit to find on Flat ratings and maybe he'll need this initial hurdling experience, but from my notebook run and the dam's side of his pedigree, I suspect he has more stamina than may be apparent from his Flat form. |
|
By:
just gone through this fred ,superb work mr b .
|
|
By:
Thanks for the kind words, Foyles
The interesting one from the current market is Fume, despite the stamina doubts he's only around 10-1 on here |
|
By:
CL Good run good price GB
|
|
By:
Unfortunately Mad, I opted not to select him EW, thinking it would be all or nothing, but at least he proved my comments about his stamina to be correct
![]() |
|
By:
yep i backed cawthorn to win ! win or nothing for me ,unlucky george .
|
|
By:
It's not our day Foyles when a totally unfancied Jonjo hoss does ya
![]() I suppose the disappointment was Sea Art, who had a nice position turning in but was readily left behind. The Wetherby form didn't hold up at all, but at least Bullion Boss should have a workable mark now, and being by War Command, my suspicion is he wants better ground, despite having run OK on softer. I wasn't sure what to expect from Glorious Dane, but a good run and he franked the MR form. |
|
By:
shappens george !
|
|
By:
close one George unlucky ... |
|
By:
it's always annoying Virgin when one of ya picks hits the frame at big odds and you didn't have it EW, still that's the psychology of it, we move on
![]() There's a juvenile hurdle to open the card at Newbury tomorrow Running P/L: +188.2 |
|
By:
Very unlucky George, bfsp for a place was 12/1.
|
|
By:
Deplasterer, I think the best way to do it if you're doing a thread like this, is to make a decision at the start, say for example, 20-1 or bigger, go EW, anything under 20s, straight win
Of course the counterargument is that longterm you'd be better off having the 2pts on the win every time, but take for example, Geyser, the thread's big winner, I was never going to have 2pts on the win, but going EW got 30 pts profit for the place, so perhaps they should be treated as two separate approaches. |
|
By:
Yeah, swings and roundabouts with ew George. 190 pts is fantastic for 2 months, keep up the good work
![]() |
|
By:
Ta Deplasterer. The thread ends on Dec 31, as stated in the opening post, so hopefully not too much more damage can be done to the thread's P/L!
|
|
By:
* I've robbed myself of a point, 2 pts lost today, not 3
![]() Running P/L: +189.2 |
|
By:
unlucky george,only stewy hits its more crossbars
|
|
By:
*hits more crossbars
|
|
By:
John Betjeman, 1pt win @ 11-2, 12.20 Newbury
I've just the one qualifier and it's John Betjeman. He was eligible for selection when he placed at Fontwell last week at decent odds, but I bottled it due to a combination of his stamina being a query, and the presence of short-priced French import. As it turned out, he seemed to stay the trip well enough to finish second despite having been keen enough, and although that race probably lacked depth, the winner had previously run well behind Group Stage, who has since run respectably in a stronger race at Cheltenham under a penalty. Fraser Island has joined Nicky Henderson from Mark Johnston, and while he only has 2lb in hand of John Betjeman on current Flat ratings, he was rated a good bit higher previously. The run of Rafiot looked too bad to be true last time at Huntingdon, but his previous third at Kempton hasn't worked out too badly given the runner up has since won and then run well in Grade 2 company. Rafiot has the highest current Flat rating of these based on his French form, and while stamina is a slight query, he would have claims if back to his Kempton form. Deebee has a bit to find on current Flat ratings, but has undergone wind surgery and joined Jonjo O'Neill's stable, which was successful with a stable debutant in the juvenile hurdle at Catterick yesterday. Sir Canford has plenty to find on Flat ratings, but is unexposed on turf, and is a half-brother to a 125-rated winning hurdler. |
|
By:
JB ran alright to make the frame but was no match for Fraser Island.
I think that's it for juvenile hurdles this side of Christmas, so unless I have any qualifiers running in handicaps, a break of at least a week. Running P/L: +188.2 |
|
By:
Three juvenile races on Boxing Day, including a Grade 2 at Leopardstown.
I don't have any qualifiers at Limerick, and my only qualifier at Fontwell is Manucci, who I selected on his hurdles debut over C/D, when he ran into Goshen ![]() There's nothing of Goshen's calibre in this field, though he is up against the experienced French import I Like Him, who ran well to be third at Warwick on his UK debut. Manucci is currently top priced 5-4, so happy to pass on this occasion. Post for Leopardstown to follow shortly. |
|
By:
Wolf Prince, 1pt EW @ 12-1
Clemencia, 1pt win @ 8-1 I have 4 qualifiers in this Grade 2, A Wave Of The Sea, Aspire Tower, Clemencia and Wolf Prince. A Wave Of The Sea went down by 2.25 lengths when giving 4lb to his stablemate Cerberus in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time, and RPRs have him 5lb and upwards clear of his rivals today, but he has been weak in the betting, perhaps because Mark Walsh has seemingly opted to ride the other JP McManus-owned runner Aramax, who makes his debut here for Gordon Elliott, having previously been with Guillaume Macaire, for whom he won a 6-runner affair at Vittel nearly six months ago. Of those with an official UK / Ire Flat rating, Aspire Tower is rated the highest, and he made an impressive hurdling debut for Henry de Bromhead at Punchestown, when powering clear in the home straight from a well backed rival, with today's opponent Wolf Prince in third. Wolf Prince has since easily won in testing ground at Fairyhouse, and while he looks up against it to reverse previous form with Aspire Tower, he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell for long and there could be improvement to come. Clemencia did the thread a big favour (33-1 morning price) when winning at Cork on his second hurdles start, and while he has plenty to find on Flat ratings with some of his rivals today, he impressed with his hurdling and how he pulled clear of Pasley, who had previously finished in front of Tremwedge, who subsequently finished third behind Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea at Fairyhouse. Sacchoandvanzetti was carrying a 7lb penalty when beating Pasley and Tremwedge at Punchestown, and even though he's been put in as one of the outsiders for this, I wouldn't want to underestimate him. Echoes Of Rain won twice on the Flat in France from 5 starts, including when last seen when ridden by an 8lb claimer, and while she obviously warrants respect being pitched in at this level on her hurdles debut by her powerful yard, she appears to face a tough task. Conclusion: Aspire Tower not surprisingly has been backed into favouritism on the back of his impressive hurdling debut, and while A Wave Of The Sea has been easy to back, he still looks the one to beat, particularly as he isn't penalised this time and has the cheekpieces on perhaps in an attempt to improve his hurdling. As usual I'm going to let the prices dictate: Wolf Prince would appear well up against it with Aspire Tower on their Punchestown meeting, but he hasn't been with Gavin Cromwell long and their may be improvement to come having since won easily at Fairyhouse 12 days ago. Clemencia has plenty to find on Flat ratings with a few of these, but impressed with his hurdling when scooting clear at Cork and justifying solid market support. |
|
By:
No damage done as Wolf Prince finished second, albeit no match for the strong staying Aspire Tower.
Clemencia ran alright, fading out of the places late on, to finish behind three who have plenty in hand on him on Flat ratings, and perhaps he'll be seen to better effect on better ground. Busy day tomorrow with the Grade 1 Finale hurdle at Chepstow (but no Goshen ), a 22 runner juvenile hurdle to kick the card off at Leopardstown, and races at Kempton and Wetherby too.Running P/L: +188.6 |
|
By:
My two qualifiers in the Finale Hurdle are the first two in the betting Allmakind and Cerberus, so easy enough to pass at the prices.
Rowland Ward is my only qualifier in the Kempton juvenile race. This is potentially a stronger race than he ran in at Warwick, where he fell when making some headway from a poor position, and there is a question about whether soft ground is ideal. So another pass. Cawthorne Lad, 1pt win @ 4-1, 1.30 Wetherby At Wetherby my only qualifier is Cawthorne Lad, who I selected at Catterick on his hurdles debut when he finished runner-up at a big price, but unfortunately I didn't take the EW option on that occasion . His jumping could have been better, and there was a suspicion he was flattered to an extent having not been put into the heat of the battle before making late headway past beaten horses, but he's unexposed at longer trips having not raced beyond a mile on the Flat, and he's entitled to improve for that initial experience, particularly in the hurdling department.Goobinator has been put in at odds-on following a ready win over C/D on his hurdling debut. The second, third and fifth from that race, however, finished well behind Cawthorne Lad at Catterick, so it will be disappointing if he can't go close in receipt of 6lb from the favourite. |
|
By:
A fair shout but I'm far from convinced that Cawthorne has the stamina for the winter game. He might need a sharp 2m like Catt or Muss to poss get away with it
Good luck though ![]() |
|
By:
You may be right, intheknow, and I as said in my little write up, there was a suspicion he was just running past beaten horses having been held on to at Catterick, but there is stamina on his dam's side of the pedigree and I suspected from my notebook run for him, that he might have more stamina than his Flat form would suggest.
|
|
By:
Pepperoni Pete, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 12.05 Leopardstown
Theatre Of War, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 12.05 Leopardstown I have 4 qualifiers: Takarengo, Pepperoni Pete, Theatre Of War and Travel On. Takarengo progressed well on the Flat this year and was put up 9lb to a mark of 84 after winning at Leopardstown over 12f when last seen in October. He won't fail for stamina or soft ground, and looks an interesting recruit. It remains to be seen which way Travel On goes ability wise, given blinkers were resorted to on his final start for John Gosden, when he finished a tailed off last of seven at Newmarket. He had previously run well off a mark of 93 at Ascot in September, so the ability is there and relatively recently, if his new stable can get him back to that level. He cost his new connections 65,000 gns, and the stable did do well with the Ex-Gosden inmate Raa Atoll on the Flat earlier this year. Theatre Of War has clearly had issues jumping but he has shown enough to suggest he has a future in this sphere. He has been kept to a soundish surface so far in his four hurdle starts for Gavin Cromwell, but he ran well enough on soft / heavy on the Flat for his previous yard to suggest he should be fine on softer ground. Pepperoni Pete had been running well round Dundalk until his latest start when again he was keen enough. He was a bit disappointing on his sole hurdles start to date back in August, sent off at 7-2 in a field of 16 at Roscommon, when soft ground shouldn't have been issue judged from his Flat form, but perhaps stamina was. He could do with settling better, and his jockey Paddy Kennedy has only ridden two winners from 88 rides so far this Irish jumps season, but a chance is taken at the prices given he at least comes here fit after recent runs on the Flat. Conclusion: A big field and track position / luck in running could make a difference. Of my 4 possibles, Takarengo is perhaps the most interesting if ready to go after a short break, but as usual the prices dictate the selections, and I'll take Theatre Of War and Pepperoni Pete EW against the field. |
|
By:
great effort George
![]() |
|
By:
Nice place GB
|
|
By:
Cheers striding and Mad'.
It looked like he had loads left given how spring heeled he was at the last (touched around 1.33 in the run) but unfortunately couldn't get past the eventual winner. He went off over 12-1 for the place on here. Pepperoni Pete was again too keen, probably went for home too soon (touched around 3s in the run?) and didn't see it out. This Cawthorne Lad has been very easy to back and has drifted to 7-1 on here ![]() |
|
By:
I hope Sage had a few quid on that Stuart Edmunds winner there at Kempton we mentioned how very promising that debut was when falling.
I just don't play these races but he may well have done so at a nice price there today. |