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Andrews' Random Day Nap Lay - New Thread
Andrews' Random Day Nap Lay - New Thread
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Replies: 6,194
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Happysandwich,
OK i was confused as you typed Saturday, but on 21st December i will be in Indonesia anyway (in fact from the 11th). I also think 8/11 is a good price but i won't be going in as strong as i did with Ten Sovereigns. Good luck to both of us. It's not a bad card. |
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Good morning ANDREW and all
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Good morning Lampus and all
Not a bad days racing considering it's a December mid-week. Hopefully a lay post at lunchtime. |
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Andrew,
Are we betting on how long it'll take him to work it out? Because we know for sure he's never going to admit he hasn't a clue what horse I'm talking about! The tricky bit is that this one only arrived in the yard in October, so it doesn't appear in any of his stable tour articles. |
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Andrew, could you hurry up and put your lay of Sun Hat up before the price goes out to much!
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Good evening Guys,
Apologies for no post at lunchtime or this evening, it was simply due to increased workload at Saab (working late) as tomorrow is my last full day this year and i'll only be in a few hours on Friday morning. I will do my best to post tomorrow. TheAnorak, You obviously saw my tongue in cheek comment on the Apple's Shakira thread to him, i knew there wouldn't be a response to your post. I think i know the gelding you were asking him about. I won't name him here and spoil the fun, but was it foaled on 23/April/13 ? Stewart, I doubt i would have layed Sun Hat, but i was very keen to lay the Paul Nicholls runner in the 7.00 and for several negative reasons (sorry to after-time). It was 2/1 when i went to work this morning although i wouldn't have got matched for 50 at that time. SP was 5/1f. |
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Evening Andrew
Yesterday the Rikbank's said at a London banking conference Sweden likely to be cashless society in 3 to 5 years. Use of notes and coins now has dwindled to almost insignificant levels. will happen here in time, will take a lot of the fun out of going racing and hit racecourse bookmakers hard |
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Evening Lucky,
Very likely, even now there are many outlets in Linköping where cash is not accepted. Cards are fine, we also have a payment system SWISH. Oddly enough, we had new banknotes and coins introduced in 2015/2016. |
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As you know BoE did the same here with new polymer bank notes in 2016.
London buses havnt accept cash or coins for a long time now its a changing landscape thats for sure what with digital currencies as well |
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Andrew,
Yes, that's the one. He's not very big, which could be an issue with UK fences, but he's a neat and safe jumper on what I've seen - and a front runner that finds plenty in the closing stage. If I was placing him, I'd be looking for a 2m 4f handicap on a flat track like Kempton or Newbury. But there won't be many options for him off 145 and not qualified for novice races. |
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Good morning ANDREW and all
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Andrew running away, because he can’t match Bigmart’s Xmas turkey challenge
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Lay Post
Thankfully i managed to find a selection for the thread after two void days although the Racing Post didn't want to play ball earlier (didn't make it easier) but it appears to be functioning normally now. The recent void days were simply due to time constraints. I don't normally finish work for the year this early and i'm playing catch up (longer hours) with varying issues that have to be resolved before tomorrow lunchtime. Wincanton 1.00 - Danse Idol A 5 year old Dansant gelding trained by Paul Nicholls. Dam has thrown several but from 3 offspring over NH rules, no winners from 11 runs and those on the flat are very ordinary. Unraced over hurdles. Winner of an Irish 24f P2P. I don't tend to concentrate on these races as you need a Greek dictionary to decipher the form lines but briefly only 7 finished the race from 16 runners and it was run on soft to heavy going. It's not important but i noticed the bookmakers were betting to 190% over round in this race !  Runner up in a bumper at Punchestown next time out and this form is far more reliable as the winner went on to win at Cheltenham. This is her best form line and again the race was run on soft to heavy going. Transferred to Paul thereafter. One run in a 16.5f bumper at Cheltenham since arriving in UK, finishing 6th of 13 (beaten 13.50L). Didn't make the anticipated improvement and looked very one paced although bear in mind it was first run for the stable. The going was good, as today. Up in distance to 21.5f although i doubt this is a significant issue. Whilst her form is reasonable, i feel some of the price is based on one run on heavy going and to a similar extent, her named connections. May turn out better in time but she's meeting some potentially decent rivals with experience of hurdles. The sharp course is also a question mark considering her previous runs. 11 runners but layers have at least 5 running for them. Good luck. Lay @ 3.00 06-Dec-18 11:37:04 13:00 Wincanton Danse Idol - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:147199529541 | Matched: 06-Dec-18 11:37:04 Lay 3.00 50.00 100.00 50.00 Matched |
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Good afternoon Guys.
TheAnorak, Thanks for input on the new Nicky Henderson intake, no doubt our learned friend knows all about though and is awaiting a first run  Tanglefoot, Of course  |
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Thank you ANDREW
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Thanks Andrew looks a good choice to me.
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Good Luck Layers
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Ul ANdrew
jumped and travelled all over them |
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Wonder what the P/L is split over flat / jumps ?
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good write up wrong result
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I'd think a bigger factor is the 'evidence in the book' and I'm not knocking Andrew in any was shape or form generally, I think he is a good race and form reader.
Horses with 1 run or never seen in public in today's discipline, there's just very little too go on. Go back through the lays where there's more meat on the bones to the selection and opposition and I'd be convinced the record is much much better! |
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Unfortunately she travelled like the winner throughout
 Andrew will soon get things back on the road I'm sure ..... |
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Enjoy your well earned holiday Andrew.
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Good evening Guys,
Not much i can say really, the horse (lay) was much the best on the day, won easily and may turn out to be useful, who knows. Pressure of work (specially the last few weeks) and time constraints are getting in the way but i can't keep using that as mitigation, i selected it and posted it, so i was OK with it at the time. I got it wrong and no excuses. Many thanks for the comments and what striding stated is correct, i need to revert to my previous thread style/reasoning and ideally spend more time choosing the selection. With exception of a few hours work tomorrow morning at least i have free time later (including 2 airport transit lounges) and 4 more days to post before i depart Monday afternoon, although i could be at Sandown on Saturday afternoon. I'm disappointed with my performance this time around but if i can get the next 4 correct (and that is an if) at least the profit will be reasonable (albeit almost 1/3 of the previous thread). deadbrain, I would rather a poor write up and correct result Second again, Many thanks, i certainly will. |
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Guys,
I'm not sure today is a good idea to discuss a new lay thread (again 66 selections) after i return from vacation on 16th January but Betfair are certainly not helping me (see email below). I will have to use Svenska Kroner as the matched bet (although easily converted). I haven't checked what the liquidity is like on Betfair.se and they haven't answered if i can continue using my profile ID Andrew in Sweden although creating an almost identical one can't be an issue in the worse case. I've had better days Hello Andrew, From January 1, 2019, gaming companies must be licensed to continue working in Sweden. Due to the new regulations, all Betfair accounts must have Swedish kronor as their currency. Because your account has another selected currency, this must be changed. To comply with the new regulations, you must open a new account where you select Swedish kronor as a currency. Your existing account must be closed before you can open a new one. This means that your existing account will be closed automatically 2018-12-13. When you open your new account, you will be able to use the same information as your existing account (including debit card and password) and your new account will automatically use the currency required by the new regulatory framework. In view of this change, we recommend that you withdraw the funds you have in your account before it closes automatically. Also, check if there is money in your gaming wallet, so just transfer the amount to your main wallet to take it out. If you do not do this before your account is automatically closed, you will need to contact customer service to help you make this withdrawal. Please note that any winnings already made and corrected after your existing account has been closed will be paid to your existing account even though you have opened a new one. You will therefore need to contact customer service to get the money transferred to you. Games in markets corrected in 2019 will no longer be possible to do with any currency other than Swedish kronor. From January 1st there will also be a set of new settings to help you play responsibly. We ask you to use these and keep them in mind when making your new account settings. |
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bummer!
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Does this mean you will be in a completely different market Andrew? Apologise for my ignorance I have NO idea about the foreign rules!
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Please note that any winnings already made and corrected after your existing account has been closed will be paid to your existing account even though you have opened a new one. You will therefore need to contact customer service to get the money transferred to you
In other words if you forget about an Antepost bet you won't be informed of any winnings and that will be kept by Betfair no doubt... How difficult is it for them to set up an alert for any accounts that have winners paid in after that date? |
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Evening Andrew
forget today, the good news I gleaned from your post is your are considering continuing with your project in 2019. Surely the Svenska site will just be one arm under the Betfair umbrella therefore encompassing all sites as one and liquidity the same as before. or will regulation prevent cross border liquidity which surely cant work |
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Hi Guys,
With respect to the new rules for Sweden i've asked Betfair customer support a few questions via email and to their credit they are responding reasonably quickly. From what i understand my UK Betfair.com account with a Swedish address (Barclays Visa) will cease to operate on 13th December. This is not an issue as i will be in a country where i can't access it anyway. When i return (arrive on 16th) i have to create a new account under Betfair.se that will not be linked to betfair.com. as they are separate sites. I will not be able to access betfair.com even in UK. The unknown is liquidity for a decent bet and whether i can transfer my current 5.36% commission rate or do i have to start again on 6.5% (base rate in Sweden). Presumably i can create a new forum profile or at least one that is very close to this one so posting shouldn't be an issue. I've been informed to list my ante-post bets (i don't have many) and contact them if a payment is due when it will be transferred to Betfair.se. Magic_Daps is correct, it couldn't have been so difficult. |
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Jeez, I feel like you're being sent to Siberia, Andrew, metaphorically speaking.
If liquidity is a problem Andrew, I can help you, PM or e-mail me your lay and I'll get it matched for you. You can take the glory and I'll keep the profits  |
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Good morning ANDREW and all
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Good morning Lampus and all,
Only a few more hours work left this year, one happy camper here. George, Sweden/Siberia, both the same in mid-winter Thanks for your offer, let's hope the profit continues. |
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Sounds like KIm Jongs gang have invaded Sweden
No access to normal site ? Swop current to proxy address here - in case Become one of the many doppelgangers that frequent here Send me your account details & i will LOOK after it |
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What will Lampus do whilst Andrew is away?
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Gerald Delamere Hot Line
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Good afternoon Guys and greetings from England
No time for a lay post earlier (2 flights and transit at Schiphol) although i do have one in mind at Dundalk later. I actually have the reasoning already typed but getting matched is an issue (looks like bots working against each other). Hopefully it will be OK late on when punters start to look at the race. I've also decided to go to Sandown tomorrow (ticket booked) primarily for the Tingle Creek but it looks a good card. I'll check out flashbookie (Ed Thompson) and say hello. |
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Hi Guys,
It appears i'm not going to get matched (traded as low as 3.20 earlier) so unless i see an alternative it looks like a void day. In the unlikely event is comes back in price to 3.75 i will use it and post 'officially'. Below is the reasoning i typed this afternoon. Lay Post A very short reasoning as i'm en-route to Heathrow (waiting for my 2nd flight at KLM lounge - Schiphol). Dundalk 6.30 - Tyrconnell A 4 year old Bated Breath gelding trained by Sarah Lynam. Overall record of 2-0-3 from 13 runs, 5 of them on AW surface including Dundalk (polytrack) and Laytown (sand) with a win at each course. Only won over 6f off marks of 45 and 52, the latter when receiving weight from the places horses LTO. Up 5 lb for the win (to 57) and the apprentice jockey can't use his claim due to conditions of the race. Has been placed over 7f (and stays on) but better runs are over the 6f. Would need a career best to win and whilst this is possible i feel it's a big ask tonight and there are enough negatives to oppose him. Good luck. Lay @ |