Nice post flash bookie

Good morning Lampus and all,

I met up with my brother last night so a free day today with only a little Christmas shopping in London later. No excuses if i don't post a lay today although i haven't seen the cards yet.

TheAnorak,

Thank you for the video link, i'll take a look during a buffet breakfast that will be on-going until hotel staff say 'enough is enough'

Lucky,

I saw your PM and will respond later. I use the old classic forum so i don't know immediately when i receive them (good you mentioned it) although i do switch to the new one to check on occasions.

Burkey,

Correct, plenty of quality time with my daughter although I will keep in touch with the racing world via SL, RP and ATR as i can access the sites over there, but i doubt i will be backing anything unless Altior runs in the KG. I can always contact my brother if i want a bet.

Flash bookie,

Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.

It was a good hour or so of racing chat with both of you and watching your MO. Did you see the test PM ?

Hi Guys,

I'm going to give it a miss today, not due to time constraints (as often) but simply due to the fact i can't see a stand out lay and i had a good look earlier.

I came close to selecting Xpo Universel in the 1.35 Kelso and if my recent strike rate had been better i would have taken the risk and posted it.

A poor record in general he has at least won 2 from 23 over hurdles in 2018, but looking at the form, although he won easily by 12L last week he was receiving a lot of weight from the placed horses (28 lb and 14 lb respectively) and it was heavy going that often extenuates winning distances. Up with the pace from the off and most didn't get into the race. He was also receiving 18 lb and 15 lb in his previous win (by 1.25L) on good to soft. Up 7 lb today and it's a tricky little handicap with a few unexposed.

Against layers is excellent form of the trainer and jockey, additionally Rebecca has improved him recently (allowing for a couple of patchy runs) so anyone wishing to lay should bear this is mind.

Good luck whatever you play.

Thank you ANDREW

Have a lovely day

(28 lb and 13 lb respectively)

tvm

Delta,

Thanks for both posts.

I haven't layed Xpo.

good swerve

you'd have to respect a henderson horse who was a solid 5/2 chance that it would run a big race..it didnt but something obv amiss.

Willie,

you'd have to respect a henderson horse who was a solid 5/2 chance that it would run a big race..it didnt but something obv amiss.

Generally you would be correct about a NH 5/2, but was something also amiss in her two previous runs at 6/5f and 13/8f before yesterday. 

She may win more races but look at her form lines, are they so good ? In my opinion she's over-rated as i posted on Marts thread, but if she wins a grade 1 race in future i will post that i was wrong about her. 

Assuming she's fine you will have another chance to see her in a Ascot handicap on 22nd.

He's going to be incommunicado for a few weeks DB.

(That's in the Far East BTW )

Good morning Guys,

My last lay on this thread and i'm determined to post one given i've missed a few days recently. I'll have a look over breakfast.

Incommunicado is about 160 kms east of Jakarta

traineroutofformlay 1.00 Lingfield Coded Message Case's current record is Since win jumps: 34 runs 90 days; reading the form not sure that this beast should be less than 3/1; all the others running for you, no real rank outsiders. Also he has never had a winner at LIngfield.

can somewon pop round and see if Lampus is OK this morning ..

Lay Post

My last lay post on this thread and hopefully one that rewards Lampus with sufficient holly topped pasties for the festive season. Having said that i wlll point out my selection is more tentative than confident and readers are aware my laying form is very patchy at the moment.

A very short reasoning as i need to do some last minute typical Christmas fayre shopping before making my way across London to the city airport after lunch. 

Musselburgh 1.15 - Special Prep

Average maiden hurdle form (4 races) and won a 24f handicap off a mark of 112 at Southwell in October 2017.

Didn't run until September, made his chase debut (off 122) over 24f (again at Southwell) and was 3rd of 4, beaten 22L. Was a bit keen and didn't jump that well but maybe the run could be forgiven. The outsider was 250/1 and tailed off

Finished 8th/13 beaten 27L (off 121) over 19.5f at Market Rasen LTO although 3 were PU. Was hard ridden from some way out.

Down to 118 today but still 6lb higher than his winning mark.

In my opinion he hasn't really taken to chasing although he's lightly raced of course.

A 3 horse race although only 4 lb separates the field.

Wolfcatcher is the rightful favorite and My Charity is not out of it although he did fall at the first on chase debut. Ran well behind Secret Investor (form is well franked since). I wouldn't bet anything in the race, but if forced it would be the latter, taking the risk the fall hasn't affected his confidence. 

Good luck.

Lay @ 3.25

10-Dec-18
08:46:07    13:15 Musselburgh
Special Prep - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:147656193474 | Matched: 10-Dec-18 08:46:07    Lay    3.25    50.00    112.50
50.00
Matched

Andrew,
GL today
Tks for reply

andrew with respect,apples was beaten 6L off a horse now rated 150,her h/cap mark of 140 ish is about right,which left her well capable of winning the race on sat..but as we know she ran deplorable,doesnt distract from the fact the form was there to win it.

Willie,

With the same respect, i understand what you're implying, but at the time of that race Farclas ran off 140, Apple's Shakira was receiving 7 lb (filly allowance) and was beaten over 6L. She's regressed since.

As i previously stated she may win again in future. She's not particularly big, was carrying 11 st 12 lb on heavy going and i feel her mark is over-rated anyway. In my opinion, at 5/2 she was totally under-priced on Saturday and i thought she was a good lay but i've already mentioned reasons why i only layed her to win £115 (at higher odds than SP).

She's entered in a decent handicap on 22nd so you will have another chance to see her. Let's just agree to disagree and good luck.

AllinR1,

Many thanks for the kind comments and likewise have a wonderful Xmas and a happy 2019.

Hi Guys,

When i started this thread the target was to beat my previous record of 55/66 and profit of £1657, or if not, at least better the run of 14/14 because i felt i made a few poor selections then and described them in the summary on the last day.

I failed miserably with the first two, although i got close with the latter, the loser coming in the middle of a good run.

I admit and accept i also made quite a few poor choices on this thread, more so than last time. I started with 4 losers in the first 7 selections so i was playing catch up for a while, but catch up i did and at one stage was back on target with a good strike rate of 18/19.

I breached the £600 profit mark later on a couple of occasions and thought i would get to four figures, but unfortunately i hit a very patchy period (including 3 in a row that is a big take out) and one that has continued. I also posted quite a few proposed lays that got beat, but some that didn't.

I'm disappointed with the overall performance, but on a positive note at least the thread will end with profit (£425 or £262.50 depending on todays result). Not significant of course, but a profit nevertheless.

I plan to start a new thread at some stage after i return from Indonesia (arrival in London on 16th January) with exactly the same conditions, i.e. max odds of 5/2 (3.75 on here) with a matched lay to win £50 per day and a stated reasoning.

Having said that i'm not sure how i will stake it as i have to use the Betfair.se site with Svenska Kroner in 2019, not Betfair.com with sterling as i do at present. I guess i could use a exchange rate conversion but i'll think of something.

I also plan to be much more selective next time and if work get's in the way (as it does sometimes) there will probably be more void days.

I'm not even sure i can use my current profile ID on my return as it requires a log-in of course and i'm not aware if it's completely independent of my betting account as Betfair haven't responded to this yet. If it is, there shouldn't be an issue, but if not, i can create a clone, or one that's close enough.   

Many thanks to all that posted on the thread that has become a platform for those who actually want to discuss horse racing topics, albeit with a mixture of daily greetings, weather forecasts, directions to racecourses and even bread pudding recipes.

I will be posting up to around 16.30 (first flight at 17.05) then i'm away for 5 quality weeks with my daughter and some Asian sunshine. In the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a wonderful Christmas and a happy/healthy 2019.

Good luck.

have a nice christmas andrew,,

ignore the BAW BAG  above